Bank Run Watch 2023 after Silicon Valley Bank shutdown - Over 97% of SVB's assets were not FDIC insured

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Iwasamwillbe said:
People have been predicting the collapse of the US dollar at year X for decades now. What is never even asked (let alone answered) is what exactly is going to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency. A lack of a global reserve currency is going to severely complicate global finance and trade, and states like Russia, China, India, and Latin America have money that is even less valuable or stable than the US dollar. The US dollar is beloved by global financial institutions because of its convenience to hold, as opposed to the often (even more) obscurantist financial bullshit done by Russia, China, India, or Latin America. The destruction of the US dollar would require an entirely new global economic and financial system, such as how it replaced the UK pound sterling because of World War II and the subsequent economic restructuring of the world, and that simply hasn't happened yet.

I'll believe that global "de-dollarization" is happening when world banks (or big corporations) start trading primarily in yuans or rubles instead of dollars. Otherwise, America has at least a full generation to dither and "experiment" with the US dollar.
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This isn't the 1950s where you have to bring a suitcase of literal currency around, its just digits on a computer that are handled on the FOREX markets by the literal billions a day. The European markets were just a basket of currency until the Euro and they got along mostly fine, its only when they kept trying to peg the currency to each other that shit shows started occurring like the 1990s British Pound fuckery in the ERM that Soros got rich off of. The US Dollar is only the reserve currency because of inertia and convenience, however the convenience has become a threat and no major player will want to subject themselves to the arbitrary decisions of the US oligarchs. Nearly every important nation and important global institution like OPEC has become exceptionally frosty to the US since Biden got into office and I don't see this trend changing.

Furthermore dominance of the US Dollar as a global reserve currency has been trending downward for over a decade.

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Cryptorubels? I'm not sure if that will do anything good. It does have the government backing it, but what does it offer that a simple cheeki breeki paper ruble can't?
 
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nypost.com

Nearly 200 banks at risk for same fate as SVB: study

Nearly 200 more banks may be vulnerable to the same type of risk that took down Silicon Valley Bank: The value of the assets they hold.
nypost.com nypost.com

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It's systemic and they're desperate enough to head off the impending implosion to start admitting it. We're so fucked.
 
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Barry McKockner said:
Gee, I wonder how a bank could have a liquidity crises if they were keeping more than 75% of their customer's funds safe and not investing it for their own profit??? *big thunk*
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Every bank in America is gonna turn into a nigger begging for their gibsmedat at this rate.
 
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Null said:
I've shown this to people from Serbia and they won't substantiate this. Maybe Bosnians are really just that much more awful (because they are Muslim rape babies and not European).
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I'm pretty sure that guy is specifically talking about the siege of Sarajevo, not just general wartime conditions. I have no doubt that it really was that bad.
 
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So I have a question about Credit Suisse. I bought the book recommended in the thread: "The Lords of Easy Money". It's very interesting, I would recommend it to everyone, and it's not really dense, very approachable language.

I am half-way through, but it got me thinking if Credit Suisse was exposed to Silicon Valley Bank via CLOs. I suspect it's hard to find buyers for CLOs these days, and it might be they were not able to sell some. Idk. I am going to research this topic today, but I would appreciate any input.
 
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Gorilla Tessellator II said:
So I have a question about Credit Suisse. I bought the book recommended in the thread: "The Lords of Easy Money". It's very interesting, I would recommend it to everyone, and it's not really dense, very approachable language.

I am half-way through, but it got me thinking if Credit Suisse was exposed to Silicon Valley Bank via CLOs. I suspect it's hard to find buyers for CLOs these days, and it might be they were not able to sell some. Idk. I am going to research this topic today, but I would appreciate any input.
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Credit Suisse was affected by the collapses of several banks including Signature and SVB as their collapse due to interest rates led to bank runs from normal everyday people but mostly big business and companies looking to take whatever cash they can get back as well as to have enough for payroll. That and because they made bad decisions, last year they lost over $100 billion dollars and their management haven't changed, so I don't expect it to do any better
 
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AnonymousKot said:
Credit Suisse was affected by the collapses of several banks including Signature and SVB as their collapse due to interest rates led to bank runs from normal everyday people but mostly big business and companies looking to take whatever cash they can get back as well as to have enough for payroll. That and because they made bad decisions, last year they lost over $100 billion dollars and their management haven't changed, so I don't expect it to do any better
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CS and SVB have very little in relation to eachother in this situation. CS has been gigafucked for years due to scandal after scandal after scandal. The Saudis, Qatar and Blackcock are about to be shafted though. UBS's offer was 0.25 CHF meaning a 1 billion CHF buyout; this was rejected. The only offer being floated is the Swiss nationalising the bank... 0.25 CHF is more than 0.00 CHF...

Edit, put SNB instead of UBS...corrected the mistak
 
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CaptainAutism69 said:
CS and SVB have very little in relation to eachother in this situation. CS has been gigafucked for years due to scandal after scandal after scandal. The Saudis, Qatar and Blackcock are about to be shafted though. SNB's offer was 0.25 CHF meaning a 1 billion CHF buyout; this was rejected. The only offer being floated is the Swiss nationalising the bank... 0.25 CHF is more than 0.00 CHF...
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There is still UBS out there trying to buy CS.

Gorilla Tessellator II said:
I am half-way through, but it got me thinking if Credit Suisse was exposed to Silicon Valley Bank via CLOs. I suspect it's hard to find buyers for CLOs these days, and it might be they were not able to sell some. Idk. I am going to research this topic today, but I would appreciate any input.
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They had no real connection. CS was just terrible run for a decade and bleeding money. people got into a frenzy when one bank went under so they took out their money from all other weak banks.
CS also didnt have the aame problems as the US banks because european banks are regulated differently and cant have all of their reserves in 10 year bonds.
 
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Stoneheart said:
There is still UBS out there trying to buy CS.


They had no real connection. CS was just terrible run for a decade and bleeding money. people got into a frenzy when one bank went under so they took out their money from all other weak banks.
CS also didnt have the aame problems as the US banks because european banks are regulated differently and cant have all of their reserves in 10 year bonds.
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Reports are cumming in that UBS upped their offer to 0.50 CHF, and will bypass a shareholder vote on the purchase. I think, if they have Swiss govt backstops, then they are getting one hell of a deal, CS's real estate alone must be worth a good chunk of change
 
CaptainAutism69 said:
So, lets imagine that someone (me), bought a bunch of ATM puts in CS last week. What happens to them in this buyout situation? Can I think about a Lambo yet?
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Nobody knows, thats why i traded very carefully and only took my 10% from all of this.

also UBS will only pay around 2 billions with a forced sell, thats 25% of market value...
 
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