Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed.
Unnamed analyst, likely a Pentagon schlub, and "appear" meaning "ok but idk looks like it could be modified" just means that the numbers regarding dead holhols are worse than they let on and Russia's casualties are not as bad as they claim.
I don't know if these were posted yet, if so, I'll remove it afterwards.
Especially interesting is picture number 6. It displays exactly how much equipment is supposed to be used in the incoming ukrainian offensive. 12 brigades "combat credible" total, which in peacetime relates to 40-50 thousand troops. That isn't shocking in on itself, what's shocking is the list of the equipment to be used by them. I'll list it out:
- 43 T-64 MBTs
- 90 BMP-1 IFVs
- 20 AS-90 SPArty piece
- 10 2S1 SPArty piece
- 99 M2 Bradley IFVs
- 28 T-555 MBTs
- 60 D-30 Arty guns
- 16 M109 SPArty piece
- 32 Leopards 2a6
- 20 CVRTs, most likely older
- 18 FH70 Arty guns
- 38 T-72 MBTs
- 14 AMX tank destroyers
- 100 M113 APCs
- 20 XA185 APCs
- 31 PT-91 MBTs
- 90 Stryker APCs
- 40 Marder APCs
- 14 Challenger MBTs
- 24 M119 arty piece
And 53 unknown tanks.
I'll be generous and add 40% of that for four unlisted brigades, which is giving then more than they probably have. So it boils down to:
- About 310 tanks
- About 230 IFVs
- About 320 APCs (In most cases IFV and APC can be used interchangeably)
- About 200 artillery guns, tracked or towed
And 40-50 thousand men.
I'll leave the conclusion to you, but imo, this offensive is fucked. I'd also like to point out the preparation for it. By March 1, only one brigade was mostly trained. The remaining ones had very little training on hand, with some still being formed. They are literally throwing ad hoc units at russians, hoping to win.
Yeah they're probably legit. Either that or a CIA Op. More than likely a legit leak. Or maybe the CIA themselves leaked it because they want to focus on China since they're using Ukraine to destabilize the dollar while we're too busy with it.
It does put the offensive in perspective. They are definitely throwing as much armor as humanely possible at Russia. The thing is Russian Air will be able to operate behind the lines.
Oof, that last image with total KIA. Russia 16 to 17k, Ukraine 61 to 71k as of March. And the airforce losses ouch. Though the 600 Russian vehicles too is notable.
Buy yeah, WE TOTALLY KILLED 200K RUSSIANS is untrue according to these documents. Which I mean you have to be a fucking retard to believe.
Also looking at the mud schedule the offensive seems like it would be launched early May. Though who knows now all this shit leaked. Russians are probably even more drunk on brakeline fluid than befoe
You'd think they would at least try to keep their plans out of the enemy's hands... Unless this "leak" was leaked intentionally. But the entire Ukraine supply train is public knowledge (while we still don't know for sure what the chinese loaded the Russian planes with iirc) so...
@Yak-130 Mitten that collection of various vehicles has to be a complete and total logistical nightmare. Just from MBT's and tank destroyers alone will require 105mm ammunition, 125mm ammunition, and 120mm ammunition. In fact, make that two types of 120mm ammunition since the British Challengers still use HESH rather than the NATO standard.
I feel like the war is going to start to look pretty humiliating in a couple months or so. it's going to look humiliating if the Ukrain fails to capture Bakmut after all this hype, or they capture it but have exhausted their military strength so badly that Russia just steamrolls them over again.
Unnamed analyst, likely a Pentagon schlub, and "appear" meaning "ok but idk looks like it could be modified" just means that the numbers regarding dead holhols are worse than they let on and Russia's casualties are not as bad as they claim.
Oof, that last image with total KIA. Russia 16 to 17k, Ukraine 61 to 71k as of March. And the airforce losses ouch. Though the 600 Russian vehicles too is notable.
Buy yeah, WE TOTALLY KILLED 200K RUSSIANS is untrue according to these documents. Which I mean you have to be a fucking retard to believe.
The thing is, from what I understand, those numbers are actually pretty close to what the Mossad has estimated to be the respective Russian and Ukrainian losses in this war. And if there is one intelligence service on this Earth who has a pretty airtight record on being right...
@Yak-130 Mitten that collection of various vehicles has to be a complete and total logistical nightmare. Just from MBT's and tank destroyers alone will require 105mm ammunition, 125mm ammunition, and 120mm ammunition. In fact, make that two types of 120mm ammunition since the British Challengers still use HESH rather than the NATO standard.
I just love how there's no "from this point onwards" consideration at all. It's like they don't even comprehend the fact that even if it goes perfect (which never happens) they'll still be sticking guys neck deep in pro-Russian territory with a very limited window to withdraw. They'll also be pitting mechanized units against unconventional infantry which is absolutely saturated with AT weaponry and that's sitting in at least semi fortified positions. There's not even a consideration of the fact that they're talking about pushing into territory well outside their AA bubble, and well inside the Russian AA bubble. Even if it works out for them on the short term, it's still going to be a one sided slaughter.
This is even assuming it actually happens and isn't just a pipe dream since Bakhmut has been effectively captured and there's only a limited window of time where Wagner forces aren't going to start being redeployed elsewhere. If they launch this plan while Wagner forces are sitting comfortably in reserve, they risk another devastating encirclement.
I just love how there's no "from this point onwards" consideration at all. It's like they don't even comprehend the fact that even if it goes perfect (which never happens) they'll still be sticking guys neck deep in pro-Russian territory with a very limited window to withdraw. They'll also be pitting mechanized units against unconventional infantry which is absolutely saturated with AT weaponry and that's sitting in at least semi fortified positions. There's not even a consideration of the fact that they're talking about pushing into territory well outside their AA bubble, and well inside the Russian AA bubble. Even if it works out for them on the short term, it's still going to be a one sided slaughter.
This is even assuming it actually happens and isn't just a pipe dream since Bakhmut has been effectively captured and there's only a limited window of time where Wagner forces aren't going to start being redeployed elsewhere. If they launch this plan while Wagner forces are sitting comfortably in reserve, they risk another devastating encirclement.
I just love how there's no "from this point onwards" consideration at all. It's like they don't even comprehend the fact that even if it goes perfect (which never happens) they'll still be sticking guys neck deep in pro-Russian territory with a very limited window to withdraw. They'll also be pitting mechanized units against unconventional infantry which is absolutely saturated with AT weaponry and that's sitting in at least semi fortified positions. There's not even a consideration of the fact that they're talking about pushing into territory well outside their AA bubble, and well inside the Russian AA bubble. Even if it works out for them on the short term, it's still going to be a one sided slaughter.
This is even assuming it actually happens and isn't just a pipe dream since Bakhmut has been effectively captured and there's only a limited window of time where Wagner forces aren't going to start being redeployed elsewhere. If they launch this plan while Wagner forces are sitting comfortably in reserve, they risk another devastating encirclement.
The press hasn't been straight with how fucking disastrous this war has been for Ukraine so far. Do you really think they're going to start being honest when Kursk II: Electric Boogaloo fucking blows up in everyone's faces?
"fortress of unassailable truth" is a statement that is usually used by individuals that have extreme difficulty with objective analysis and use blind faith as a crutch. And "stinky" is an insult usually used by juvenile children whole higher brain functions haven't kicked in yet.
We should have a wager of who does a better job of predicting the month-to-month timeline of events. Technically we have enough commentary on hand to already do so, but trawling the archives is a level of spite I'm indifferent to.
One thing I noticed and someone else brought up as well: There is no talk of air defences. The intel sheet is completely disregarding russian aviation, be it fixed wing or rotary. It's like they expect them to not fly at all, for some reason.
One thing I noticed and someone else brought up as well: There is no talk of air defences. The intel sheet is completely disregarding russian aviation, be it fixed wing or rotary. It's like they expect them to not fly at all, for some reason.
Didn't someone here say that US plans always assume that they have air authority?
it could mean that they are doing a better job of keeping their air defense/fighting plans a secret, I don't know how effective a secret plan using their flying assets will be in this scenario though.
Didn't someone here say that US plans always assume that they have air authority?
it could mean that they are doing a better job of keeping their air defense/fighting plans a secret, I don't know how effective a secret plan using their flying assets will be in this scenario though.
The thing is they can't achieve air superiority, especially over the russian held territory. Wherever russians move in, they install AA batteries - S-300 more forward and S-400 more backwards. With that you also have low-level air defences such as pantsir, holding against helicopters and drones. You also have the anti-drone equipment, heavy EM shielding, and all that. On the black sea there are russian frigates, also armed with anti-air missiles. In recent weeks russians started to fly more and more air sorties, many of them into ukrainian airspace - so they can barely hold their own, let alone get air superiority over russian territory.
The thing is they can't achieve air superiority, especially over the russian held territory. Wherever russians move in, they install AA batteries - S-300 more forward and S-400 more backwards. With that you also have low-level air defences such as pantsir, holding against helicopters and drones. You also have the anti-drone equipment, heavy EM shielding, and all that. On the black sea there are russian frigates, also armed with anti-air missiles. In recent weeks russians started to fly more and more air sorties, many of them into ukrainian airspace - so they can barely hold their own, let alone get air superiority over russian territory.
So if Russia has sufficient air superiority, couldn't they just bomb the dickens out of Zelensky's massive push to retake Bakmut? I wonder if either military has analysts trawling sites like this one for useful information?
