Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[870EVO]

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-megathread.114104/post-11749470

Oh well. Too good to be true I guess. Is it a common thing with puppet leaders?

 

[make_it_so]

Agreed. The 300k dead seems to be based on 'missing' Ukrainian troops that were supposed to be mobilized when the war started. On paper the Ukies should have a million man army and they clearly don't. Every now and then someone brings this up and assumes that the missing conscripts are KIA instead of in the reserves (there are only so many men you can train/equip at once) or working odd jobs in Spain.

Or hiding out in Eastern Europe, and then coming to the Kiwi Farms threads to gloat about how Ukraine is totally BTFO'ing the Russian orcs.

 

[Secret Asshole]

Who says they are all Ukrainian?

View attachment 5013601

That's true, there are a lot of mercs over there, which is how NATO gets away with operating in theater. "Oh, they're mercenaries, totes not our soldiers."

You'd have to be fucking batshit right now to go "Hm, I'll go join a WWI conflict. Sounds good to me."

 

[Kane Lives]

I would say a massive chunk of the "missing" is just AWAL. It's not the 1960s anymore. There is more then the controlled TV/radio and newpapers. People have social media and the internet. If I knew I was being sent to something like Bakhmut to die for nothing but PR for more gibs I would fuck off the first second I had a chance.

I truly wonder if the Ukrainian equivalent of the Stavka even knows what their OOB are. It must be utterly a chore trying to distinguish between paper brigades and actual numbers.

 

[CarlosDanger]

The 300k is probably high but I don't think it is all that farfetched to be honest, probably closer to that than the 71k. Even going back to the Summer of 2022 when Russia pulled back, they were talking about some seriously high casualty rates even then. Reporters in Soledar in the Autumn and early Winter we were hearing casualty rates in the triple digits a day and that was one hospital, and then of course Bakhmut and we still have no clue how many foreign mercs have been killed or severely wounded.

 

[All Smiles]

No fucking shot at 330k. That'd be fucking insane.

I have no estimates really, its impossible to tell, but no way I believe 330k, nor do I believe 17k either.

Ursula Von Der Leyen said that it was 100k+ about half a year ago. I doubt it's reached 300k, but 150k wouldn't surprise me.

There's no way to know for sure how many people Ukraine-chungus has lost, but it's gotta be pretty excessive.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

The brave and upstanding valiant warrior-soldiers of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine sorrowfully leave the insignificant settlement of Bakhmut (called Artemovsk by the evil orcs of Mordor).

https://t.me/i20028843/72139

The evil orcs, led by President Sauron, blew up this Ural truck which blocked the pontoon bridge out of Bakhmut, which only needed a pontoon when the heroic defenders of the true and honest Rus blew up the only bridge, deceived into doing so by the black arts of the orcs (some say it was NATO Wormtongue but those are lies and propaganda).

https://t.me/c/1670195924/959

 

[Climaxing Sunset]

Bakhmut is a meat grinder for Ukraine. Ideally it’s a lost cause and the Ukrainians ought to focus on other weaker Russian areas as opposed to fighting in a now destroyed town

 

[CarlosDanger]

I don't think Ukraine holds out much longer in Bakhmut, with the Russians attacking and bearing down on them from multiple directions, the salient they are "defending" is shrinking rapidly and the artillery must be hell right now.

 

[Legato]

Bakhmut is a meat grinder for Ukraine. Ideally it’s a lost cause and the Ukrainians ought to focus on other weaker Russian areas as opposed to fighting in a now destroyed town

THIS FUKEN GUY!

 

[Climaxing Sunset]

View attachment 5014780
THIS FUKEN GUY!

That’s right!

But yes Russia is a paper Tiger. Just because they are corrupt doesn’t mean they’re not pushing the Ukrainians out of Bakhmut

They failed elsewhere, such as in Kiev, and Kherson

 

[Betonhaus]

That’s right!

But yes Russia is a paper Tiger. Just because they are corrupt doesn’t mean they’re not pushing the Ukrainians out of Bakhmut

They failed elsewhere, such as in Kiev, and Kherson

Well then, O wise one, what events will happen in the next few months that proves you are correct?

 

[make_it_so]

That's true, there are a lot of mercs over there, which is how NATO gets away with operating in theater. "Oh, they're mercenaries, totes not our soldiers."

However, even assuming Ukraine managed to recruit 100,000 NATO mercenaries (doubt), enough of them getting fragged to help add up to a 300,000 Ukrainian causality list is not something people are going to be able to just sweep under the rug.

 

[Climaxing Sunset]

Well then, O wise one, what events will happen in the next few months that proves you are correct?

They’ve hardly made progress besides Bakhmut. Wagner and Russian MoD often have bickering. Prigozhin wants to outshine Shoigu. Russians have absolute numbers as their advantage but overall they’ve been mostly stagnant.

 

[870EVO]

That’s right!

But yes Russia is a paper Tiger. Just because they are corrupt doesn’t mean they’re not pushing the Ukrainians out of Bakhmut

They failed elsewhere, such as in Kiev, and Kherson

I don't know why people keep on bringing up Russia as corrupt. The US just had a former President indicted over paperwork, just because he's running, and the current President fucking said so publicly. If anything, the US is making other countries look LESS corrupt in comparison.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

They’ve hardly made progress besides Bakhmut. Wagner and Russian MoD often have bickering. Prigozhin wants to outshine Shoigu. Russians have absolute numbers as their advantage but overall they’ve been mostly stagnant.

Its attrition warfare, you measure gains in lives destroyed not yards gained. These kinds of wars are absolutely catastrophic for the weaker party, when Germany began the Battle of Verdun it caused a chain of other catastrophic battles just to relieve pressure, the Battle of the Somme and Brusilov offensive were disasters for both the British and Russians with the Brusilov offensive leading directly into a collapse of the state because losses were so high, but "successes" in that they diverted resources away from Verdun. Ukraine has zero way of relieving pressure on Bakhmut, they just have to grind in a Verdun style battle.

Worse, Russia is turning liabilities into assets by yanking prisoners with 20-30 year sentences and hurling them into the grinder via Wagner, while Ukraine is conscripting the core demographic of 16-48 year olds and squandering them in a battle that is well noted to be organized to be advantageous to Russia's strength in artillery. The preoccupation with Bakhmut has started unraveling more important places on the line like Avdiivka which is slowly getting encircled. The situation is getting extremely grim for Ukraine, they're going to be neutralized by force solely because there wont be anyone left to lift a rifle.

 

[Betonhaus]

A good reason for Russia to not be fighting this war at it's full capacity is because this is a political war. If they go all out for a faster win then NATO will chip in more resources and retaliate harder, but if you keep it a slow grind then it gets harder for NATO to justify significant resources and manpower, weapons, and public favor for the war gets ground down to nothing, leading to an embarrassment for the US-Lead empire that convinces more countries to join the BRICS trade block. I think this may be a lesson Russia learned the hard way where at the start of the war they tried for a quick and easy win, only to be dramatically pushed back once Ukraine signed up for military welfare.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

What I was referring to was how Russian military corruption was a real thing and I noted that Russia is not operating in its fullest capacity in this war.

What nation isn't corrupt? Just because the American military can dazzle at the tactical level doesn't mean its not foundationally broken in a unique way just like Russia. The upper echelons of the US military are abject failures, just a few weeks ago we had AFRICOM General Micheal Langley look clueless when asked about how many troops that we have trained in African military whom have gone on to run a coup on their own government. Even when presented with pictures of the instigators of these coups the guy still had no idea who Col. Mamady Doumbouy was, or Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damib, or the guy who coup'd him later Capt. Ibrahim Traore. The guy in charge of US all military interests in Africa had zero idea who these people were, which shows a complete disinterest in diplomatic maneuvering of the area he is responsible for. When pressed on this fact the guy just started mumbling out shit about "core values" and other tired woke bromides. The US has completely incompetent people at high levels that grift for places like Raytheon via contracts then when they complete their time in the military go serve with the companies they grifted for.

 

[Matt Damon]

it gets harder for NATO to justify significant resources and manpower, weapons, and public favor for the war gets ground down to nothing, leading to an embarrassment for the US

It's depressing to realize you really only have to outlast the attention span of the Twitter and TikTok-addled masses and the world is yours.

 

[Betonhaus]

It's depressing to realize you really only have to outlast the attention span of the Twitter and TikTok-addled masses and the world is yours.

I mean that was true before, but Biden and other leaders used this war as an excuse for inflation and life being harder and promised it was worth it for a quick victory then things would get better.