Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

According to the NYT article, the leakers couldn't have been UA officials, because they don't have access to the documents.
The documents are labled NOFORN meaning "Not for release to foreign nationals" so if genuine they're for internal USGOV consumption.
The easiest way to square the reported casualty numbers is to assume that they're based UKR reporting and asessments made by we-pretend-run-by-Western-glowies outfits like Bellingcat, Oryx and a dozen other "OSINT analysts".
 
I like how people are still pretending Russia is fighting Ukraine and not the entirety of NATO military supply propped up by a host of its "advisors", "mercenaries" and "volunteers". Nevermind the unlimited access to the bank account of the world's only superpower.
I don't like it. It's fucking retarded and an absolute cope.

Russia is now a year into consequences that will never be the same with sanctions that were supposed to destroy the country within weeks. NOTHING has happened. Yes the front has become a slow grind but that numbers war was always going to be in favor of Russia. Meanwhile they pacify and rebuild the annexed regions so that these people will never want to be a part of the Ukraine again.

And yet niggers still shill for NATO and globohomo. Get fucked you clowns.
 
Russia is now a year into consequences that will never be the same with sanctions that were supposed to destroy the country within weeks. NOTHING has happened. Yes the front has become a slow grind but that numbers war was always going to be in favor of Russia. Meanwhile they pacify and rebuild the annexed regions so that these people will never want to be a part of the Ukraine again.
Yes, the continued adaption and survival of the Russian economy post sanctions has pulled the curtain on how weak GloboHomo is in reality.


edit: @Captain Autism69 Here's a threadreader thread https://en.rattibha.com/thread/1644158771155935233
It's been a while since I've done a Ukraine-specific thread, but given the feeding frenzy over the reported NATO leak, now is as good a time as any. The leak I will not post here, but you can find it on TG rusfleet. Caveat about the casualty box editing. More on this later. /1
It's been a while since I've done a Ukraine-specific thread, but given the feeding frenzy over the reported NATO leak, now is as good a time as any. The leak I will not post here, but you can find it on TG rusfleet. Caveat about the casualty box editing. More on this later. /1
Obviously, the immediate question concerns the validity of the leaks, and as of now even the NYT has come out and stated it appears to be authentic, apart from the edited casualty box. What this series of pages illustrates is the state of NATO's operational planning. /2
The documents are dated D+370, or the end of February, 1 year and 5 days since the start of the SMO. I'm going to list some of my observations. The most important part, obviously, concerns the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. /3
The nominal strength of the 9 brigades built up for this offensive is stated as 253 tanks, 381 IFVs, 480 APCs, and 147 artillery. However, much of this armor is listed "TBD" as in not yet arrived or repaired maybe. /4
By the end of April, they expect to have on hand 43 T-64, 38 T-72, 31 Twardy, 28 T-55S, 32 Leo 2A4, 14 Leo 2A6, 14 Challenger 2, 14 AMX-10. Another 53 listed TBD. First thing that jumps out is that Ukraine's prewar T-64s are almost all gone. /5
Ukraine also burned through the bulk of its armor deliveries last year, since they are now waiting on old new stock T-72s and PT-91 Twardys shipped from Poland. Many of the TBDs might be filled by Leo 1s, it's unclear. /6
As of the timing of this document, the beginning of March, however, these units were just beginning to be formed, with training rates of 0% (one brigade is 60% trained, and another 40%) and equipment rates of 30-60%. /7
Training seems to be highly accelerated. For the Leopard 2s, training is about 6 weeks. They may hope to be getting better results transitioning existing tankers to new tanks, but it's unclear. Many old AFU tankers died with their tanks. /8
The mainstay of the mobile artillery is the M119, with some AS-90s, but most of the brigades here surprisingly use towed artillery. 155mm FH70 but also D-30. I do not think they have adequeate supplies for the D-30 to offer much more than token fire. /9
Looking at each brigade's inventory, I do not believe them to be actual brigade sized formations. A US Stryker brigade typically has ~300 strykers alone, and that's before adding other vehicles, with a manpower complement of 4,500 men. /10
Here, each of these Ukrainian brigades has 90 IFV/APC and ~30 tanks. I'll be surprised if the manpower strength exceeds 2000. This whole grouping of 9 brigades is likely only to have 15-20k men. However, this isn't the entire force. /11
Ukraine is supposed to supply another 3 brigades internally, so if we are being optimistic, maybe another 10k. Pessimistic, 5k. Whole offensive force 20-30k. We don't have visibility into the composition of those internal brigades. /12
Lack of visibility into Ukrainian formations is actually something that plagues this report, and it corroborates something that some have suspected for a while - that old units are just being left to bleed out while new formations are generated. /13
Moreover, it appears that Ukraine's mobilization numbers, as I have stated consistently for months now, are bullshit. The numbers just don't bear that out. In Zaporozhye, Russian personnel are assessed at 23,250 and Kherson 15,650. Donetsk 23,050. /14
These surprisingly small numbers illustrate the difficulty, as I've been noting, of Russia's frontline force generation and how many troops are apparently being held in rotation or reserve. However, it gets interesting with Ukrainian numbers. /15
Donetsk: 10-20k, Zaporozhye 4-8k, Kherson 1250-2500. There is a huge range of uncertainty of what the state of attrition in the current frontline brigades is. Moreover, there is no accounting, like with Russian side, of which Ukrainian brigades are combat capable. /16
It's like NATO builds these units, sets them loose on the front, and they disappear into a black box that is the Ukrainian General Staff and the SBU. They do not know what the combat capability of these units is so they must form new ones. /17
The combat losses, which have unfortunately been manipulated by Russian social media, are a good example of this black box effect. The original stated 35.5k-43.5k KIA on the Russian side and 16k-17.5k KIA on the Ukrainian side. /18
The Russian number of killed generally align with some of the more pessimistic estimates (within reason, including LDPR and wagner losses), but the Ukrainian loss stats are just a copy paste from the Ukrainian General Staff. Nonsensical. /19
Just in the Mariupol-Volnovakha battles, a Ukrainian agglomeration of 15k+ disappeared to death and capture, not to say anything about the thousands who died in Severodonetsk or the fields of burned Ukrainian vehicles outside of Kherson. /20
The fact that Ukrainian brigades are now almost entirely dependent on foreign equipment and basically regiment-sized speaks to attrition over the course of a year of war. You don't send people out with a month of training (per this document) if one is avoiding losses. /21
The lack of internal intelligence points towards something I and others like @AniaKoniec have been saying - that this is Zelensky's war, and Ukraine is in the driver's seat. The US wasn't making shit up when they say the Ukrainans don't tell them much. /22
@AniaKoniec No greater example of this is the admission that the SBU's goons violate orders to launch terrorist attacks, like the bombing of the airbase in Belarus. In addition, some of the items in the document suggest they only find out these things after Russia reports it. /23
@AniaKoniec It is Z-cope at this point to suggest that Kiev is irrelevant and that all the decisions are being made in Washington. It is meant to give Ukraine a way out for negotiations, but as I said from the start, Zelensky needs this war more than anyone. /24
@AniaKoniec And they are psyopping the world to give them the money and weapons for their national baptism of blood. If NATO really believes this crap, despite already the visual evidence of multiple random graveyards with thousands of AFU graves, no wonder. /25
@AniaKoniec Also, one last point. The docs give the total GMLRS expenditure as 9,612 and 155mm expenditure as 952,856. Over the last 7 days an average of 14 and 2,746, respectively. This rate of fire is anemic, and the west is not going to be able to scale up soon. /26
@AniaKoniec Which also leads to a point I have been saying over the last few months, that the biggest problem to solve is the one of war industry. Russia just needs to fully staff its production - more ammo, more drones, more bombs. VKS bombing with glide bombs is uncounterable. /27
@AniaKoniec If this war is going to be one of two drunk boxers swinging bananas at each other, the one with the bigger bananas will win. The battlefield math does not favor the side with the weaker industry here. The questions for Russian civil society are for another day. /28 END
 
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yah its annoying to have to point out every time I talk to a family member about this shit that Ukraine is basically all of NATO fighting against Russia. wile sure we don't OFFICIALLY have troops there there's "mercenaries" that just so happen to link back to the DOD hanging out there. we are handing them basically anything they ask for sans nukes and long range bombers and top of the line top tech shit. the fact that Russia can grind the storehouses of the entirety of NATO down soo effectively by them selves should make this war harrowing for all pro NATO people. instead they consume propaganda made to completely spin ever Ukrainian loss as a win. sure Russia has fumbled here and there in this war but at this point they have gone back to what wins them every war ever. attrition.
 

here is the Video of Maria Lvova-Belova testifying at the UN

If anyone has time it is desirable to save this two-hour video, because the tube is not reliable and the UN is not going to save the video

At some point it joined the Urkanian armed forces.
According to Pedowiki
View attachment 4996221
Combat medic, lmao. Well, he does try to heal a self-inflicted axe-wound.
View attachment 4996209
Just heard a short story on him on the radio (France).
Just the usual "beacon of freedom and democracy" and "yass queen slay, Putin so mad about a the brave trans warrior" type "reporting".

The hilarious part was that they dubbed him with a woman's voice, leaving his very male voice in the background. It sounded like they were mocking him with the contrast, but the alternative was dubbing him with a man's voice and they just couldn't do that.
Good thing my coffee wasn't ready yet because I would have spit it all over the kitchen from laughter.
 
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Hopefully the big fallout from this war is that every country in Europe starts building new munitions factories to keep a steady supply of ammo to be used in case of emergencies which would see brand new industrial towns and cities thrive as a key industry is revived.

Who am I kidding, they'll just keep buying 3 elite fighter jets from the US every 10 years and hope that's enough to contain China.
 
might have missed this upthread, it's a couple of days old- NYT tells us it's better for us not to know who dun Nordstream, for our own good, like.
The last bits:
Screen Shot 2023-04-10 at 12.13.54 AM.png
yeah right, let's don't *ahem* "claim" it was the Russians

Screen Shot 2023-04-10 at 12.16.09 AM.png
OK, so we won't, uh, "blame" the Ukranians (maybe later when we're really done with them)

Screen Shot 2023-04-10 at 12.07.41 AM.png
strategic reasons, well, you could put it that way, and after all, being in the dark is a Western Value.

 
View attachment 4703861

British Ministry of Retardation is claiming that Russian soldiers are beating the Nato-Ukes with sapper shovels. At this point I think Biden should just issue a formal unconditional surrender.
I thought that was a mode in Goldeneye?
1681054105183.png
 
might have missed this upthread, it's a couple of days old- NYT tells us it's better for us not to know who dun Nordstream, for our own good, like.
The last bits:
View attachment 5016514
yeah right, let's don't *ahem* "claim" it was the Russians

View attachment 5016529
OK, so we won't, uh, "blame" the Ukranians (maybe later when we're really done with them)

View attachment 5016493
strategic reasons, well, you could put it that way, and after all, being in the dark is a Western Value.

In summary then, the general public need to remain uninformed otherwise it might cause problems for those who know best.

Go Democracy!
 
In summary then, the general public need to remain uninformed otherwise it might cause problems for those who know best.

Go Democracy!
Ah yes, the "blindly trust your politicians to be acting in your best interest" strategy. Always a winner.

It's sort of like "Jesus, take the wheel"...except, well, it's politicians...
 
yah its annoying to have to point out every time I talk to a family member about this shit that Ukraine is basically all of NATO fighting against Russia. wile sure we don't OFFICIALLY have troops there there's "mercenaries" that just so happen to link back to the DOD hanging out there. we are handing them basically anything they ask for sans nukes and long range bombers and top of the line top tech shit. the fact that Russia can grind the storehouses of the entirety of NATO down soo effectively by them selves should make this war harrowing for all pro NATO people. instead they consume propaganda made to completely spin ever Ukrainian loss as a win. sure Russia has fumbled here and there in this war but at this point they have gone back to what wins them every war ever. attrition.
Yeah all things considered, this is Russia's finest hour. They're fighting 10 countries all at once and holding their own. To the point that the media is hiding the "Ukrainian" death toll and exaggerating the Russian. Again though, it'd be nice if we had peace and all.

I was thinking about that St. Petersburg bombing last night and history really does repeat itself.

Once again we're arming and lionizing dangerous extremists as long as it means we kills some russians. It doesn't matter if it was the Ukies or NATO or some 3 letter agency, but the fact that Americans are openly cheering for terrorists bombings (as long as it's Russia) is pretty disturbing. What's to stop some pissed off Ukranians from coming to the US and blowing our shit up once we stop sending support? Shit like this is why we're still fighting the Taliban.
 
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The documents are labled NOFORN meaning "Not for release to foreign nationals" so if genuine they're for internal USGOV consumption.
The easiest way to square the reported casualty numbers is to assume that they're based UKR reporting and asessments made by we-pretend-run-by-Western-glowies outfits like Bellingcat, Oryx and a dozen other "OSINT analysts".
Oryx is a Brellingcat offshoot and they're all Britbong glowniggers
 
I'll never understand why people think it's a good idea to write long-form on Twitter. Just post a link and let me read something broken into readable paragraphs like a sane person.
I just consider the /numbers to be paragraph breaks? I'm not sure why they weren't seperated here though.
 
You know what a beard is? Well a great tell is when stories are put out about how the girly man faggot is in fact a man's man who's smashing pus. See Tom Cruise, Simon Cowell, Elton John back in the day. It's France so added sauce goes down well, not just the mom but the daughter! Ooh la la

View attachment 4998029

Next you'll be telling me that Taylor Swift is a hopeless romantic who's had bad luck with the boys lol. Jeez dude grow the fuck up
Cruise is a cock jockey?
 
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