Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[870EVO]

And the healthiest, long term move for us as a nation and an economy would be to just let the rot fucking burn. But unfortunately those VC oligarchs that made their fortunes by way of Fed money-printing arbitrage are also now key political financiers and social movers and shakers and they aren't going to let the game stop any time soon if they can help it.

And if everything goes to hell economy wise, you'll just be finding out about it while they are halfway to Switzerland on their private jets.

 

[Rubick]

https://ria.ru/20230409/voyska-1864102882.html

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/aKIvF

Prigozhin says he estimates that Ukrainian has assembled about 200,000 troops for the counteroffensive. With some sources putting it around 400,000 (Doubtful)

It was at a point that annexing Ukraine was not Russia's plan, but now? With Russia putting in all the cards and having a moment where it actually feared getting balkanized, Russia at this point will just go for annexation of most of Ukraine to make up for all its losses and humiliation that they suffered. They will now want Odessa, Nikopol, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhye, Chernigov, Sumy, and Kiev. Why? Because that is where all the Russians (or Russian-speaking/cultured Ukrainians) in Ukraine are.

Now, I'd say there is no choice but to destroy Ukraine as a nation. I don't believe the West. As long any part of Ukraine is left. Will not be financed and armed by NATO and be a torn in Russia's belly.

It would be great if Poland would take the other half. Because that would backfire spectacularly.

But if not. Ukraine either has to be taken in it's entirety. Or the western part of Ukraine razed to the ground with it's manpower bled dry. Neither of which are great options. Cost wise in blood and not to mention morality wise.

 

[Romeo]

Anton Derbilov, a Ukrainian miniature artist known for his work on Strelets, perished to a mortar attack in the frontlines​

Anton Derbilov was the master sculptor for many 1/72 scale military figurines and miniatures dedicated to numerous eras such as the Napoleonic Wars, Medieval and Dark Ages, and the World Wars under his brand Strelets. He also did work for Warhammer 40k.

He was drafted to fight in the AFU against the Russians in the National Guard. Derbilov participated in the September counter-offensive that pushed the Russians out of most of Kharkiv Oblast. He later perished in the Kreminna front in Luhansk Oblast against Russian Armed Forces under Tsentr Command and the Luhansk People's Republic militia when a mortar attack hit him and Derbilov sustained shrapnel wounds until he passed around last Thursday.

He is survived by his wife and three daughters.

His work:


Link: https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-musician-artist-anton-derbilov-083500441.html
Archive: https://ghostarchive.org/archive/eX29p
Derbilov's Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/derbilovanton/ (unable to archive it)

 

[Shallow Wave]

Cover of the Turkish publication: the happy pope.

How the fuck do you screw up so hard you make turkish people care about eastern orthodox christians?

 

[Harvard Covington III]

“Here’s How Bernie Can Still Win”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/06/heres-how-the-ukrainians-could-retreat-from-bakhmut-and-still-win-the-battle-for-the-city/?sh=5ec92c36395e

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

Prigozhin says he estimates that Ukrainian has assembled about 200,000 troops for the counteroffensive. With some sources putting it around 400,000 (Doubtful)

Very unlikely that 200k have been assembled specifically for an offensive, likely this is just existing troops being consolidated from shattered units that have taken 50-70% losses before being thrown back into the line. It would take a seasoned hand to properly track such movements on paper and in reality, I just don't Prigozhin has the proper contacts in the MoD to get proper information on such things.

 

[Screamer_2]

In summary then, the general public need to remain uninformed otherwise it might cause problems for those who know best.

Go Democracy!

It's misinformation for the public to be informed with the truth.

It's insane the current moment. Literally put oligarchs tell us this out in the open that the truth is miss information because we may disagree with the lies were meant to believe. Yet most people don't even pay attention or know.

 

[Corpun]

I'm going to be an optimist and assume that a majority of those 300k casualties that leak claims are MIA/deserters. Maybe 70% at best, but probably closer to 55-60% of the Ukrainian forces fielded total in the war. It would help to explain why they are so desperate with recruiting at this point. Not only are they forced to make up for people just fucking off when they realize they are being lied to in the propaganda, and lied to extremely terribly, but need more men for this doomed offensive on Crimea or Kherson.

“Here’s How Bernie Can Still Win”

View attachment 5019316

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/06/heres-how-the-ukrainians-could-retreat-from-bakhmut-and-still-win-the-battle-for-the-city/?sh=5ec92c36395e

Nothing says winning the battle like abandoning the city after pouring so many assets and manpower into it. I guess if we are redefining victory than the Germans won WW2 afterall.

 

[Lone MacReady II]

I'm going to be an optimist and assume that a majority of those 300k casualties that leak claims are MIA/deserters. Maybe 70% at best, but probably closer to 55-60% of the Ukrainian forces fielded total in the war. It would help to explain why they are so desperate with recruiting at this point. Not only are they forced to make up for people just fucking off when they realize they are being lied to in the propaganda, and lied to extremely terribly, but need more men for this doomed offensive on Crimea or Kherson.

Nothing says winning the battle like abandoning the city after pouring so many assets and manpower into it. I guess if we are redefining victory than the Germans won WW2 afterall.

they should have...

 

[Male Idiot]

Poor sod. I guess the ones who got out were lucky.

Definately, I have seen many young men, but I wouldn't rat them out to the Z-manlet.

Let Biden send Hunter if he is so keen at throwing people at the Putin.

Perhaps some losses are pov/deserters too. I can't imagine all are eager for a heroic death for distant Uncle Sam.

 

[Makhno]

Very unlikely that 200k have been assembled specifically for an offensive, likely this is just existing troops being consolidated from shattered units that have taken 50-70% losses before being thrown back into the line. It would take a seasoned hand to properly track such movements on paper and in reality, I just don't Prigozhin has the proper contacts in the MoD to get proper information on such things.

No he’s right. You aren’t thinking like a military officer. If you launch an offensive you have to prepare for 2 big problems with it 1: offensive fails enemy counteracts along failed axis and pushes deep very quickly 2:enemy anticipating offensive counterattacks along line of defense at various other points. Essentially if you plan to go on a massive offensive that has potential to go tits up or where you use you best units from rest of line you have to reinforce the rest of line much more deeply. You also need to have men to garrison any territory you take so you can keep it and you need a pool of waiting reserves to take spots in line for inevitable casualties. If 30-50k men will be the tip of the Speer then another 150-200k will be needed for what I just described garrisoning/shoring points in line you drew your primary offensive group from.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

Once again we're arming and lionizing dangerous extremists as long as it means we kills some russians. It doesn't matter if it was the Ukies or NATO or some 3 letter agency, but the fact that Americans are openly cheering for terrorists bombings (as long as it's Russia) is pretty disturbing. What's to stop some pissed off Ukranians from coming to the US and blowing our shit up once we stop sending support? Shit like this is why we're still fighting the Taliban.

My prediction is that win or lose, Azov/their ilk makes good on their pledge to overthrow Jewlensky, fails because glowies will throw their neo-Nazi allies under the bus, and will start an insurgency that will include Ukrainian cells in Western Europe and the US which will be bombing synagogues and killing Jews (like Muzzies already do basically). This will be good for the Western elite who can now crack down on local dissidents by claiming they're the same as the Azovites.

Prioritizing capturing Bakhmut proper instead of encirclement due to supposed Ukrainian counter-offensive planning to happen in the region, Wagner PMC units and the VDV of the Russian Armed Forces under Yug command (I made a mistake of not mentioning them previously as they fought alongside Wagner in storming central Bakhmut since I just learned of their involvement) are quickly capturing the rest of Central Bakhmut, storming numerous positions to the point that the AFU are withdrawing to West Bakhmut.

That doesn't sound good to me. Even if they took the city and bled the enemy, not taking a fuckton of prisoners and equipment is definitely not the decisive victory it could've been. Although maybe it's the lesser of two evils, since the Ukrop counter-offensive proves that thanks to NATO, they have real mobility. Probably it will include many of whatever trained, veteran soldiers have survived. Not looking good.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

No he’s right. You aren’t thinking like a military officer. If you launch an offensive you have to prepare for 2 big problems with it 1: offensive fails enemy counteracts along failed axis and pushes deep very quickly 2:enemy anticipating offensive counterattacks along line of defense at various other points. Essentially if you plan to go on a massive offensive that has potential to go tits up or where you use you best units from rest of line you have to reinforce the rest of line much more deeply. You also need to have men to garrison any territory you take so you can keep it and you need a pool of waiting reserves to take spots in line for inevitable casualties. If 30-50k men will be the tip of the Speer then another 150-200k will be needed for what I just described garrisoning/shoring points in line you drew your primary offensive group from.

I am well aware of how offensives are conducted, I just doubt that Ukraine has the ability to muster 200k in troops, they have plenty of militia, but actual troops that can conduct offensives, very short supply. Their ability to train, equip and get basic provisions for troops is extremely bad, and this is compared to Russia's sideshow of a mobilization where they would just have their mobilized troops just randomly thrown in fields with no orders or provisions for weeks waiting for someone from the military to show up. As it stands right now, a Ukrainian conscript gets yanked off the streets, moved to Kharkov, processed and given uniforms and basic gear like helmets, then they are taught how the rifle works for the rest of the day, fire two magazines worth of ammo on the second day, then are moved to a place like Bakhmut or Maryinka where they last a short time before before getting wounded or die. There is extreme ammo shortages along the front, and artillery shells are a problem as its difficult for Ukraine to get them where they need to be. To conduct an offensive there needs to be a surplus of basic stuff like ammo or food. Ukraine isn't even getting food supplied to their troops effectively.

 

[102]

Nafoids literally cannot stop making complete fools of themselves the last few days; bad time to be a holhol-lover.

The exclusive remaining Uke-controlled road into Bakhmut is a highway of Death, expectedly. Uke POV footage of early retreat

Current map; in the last day, Wagner troops have make extensive gains, seizing up most of the remaining southern residential areas.

RU tank work on holhol trenches; great accuracy here:

Adding more of Wagner's Music

 

[01169]

I can believe that the hohols are missing 300k men with kia/mia/awol added up.

Any hohol with sense or means got to Autismland, I mean Poland, or Hungary or Romania if they could.

All you have to do to find these men is ordering a Bolt or Uber in those countries. Shit isn't exactly rocket science. It's easy to verify too since the driver's name will be displayed in your app. I have Oleksandr, Maksym, Volodymyr among others. And those were all able-bodied men around 20-50ish years old. I don't blame them.

 

[CaptainAutism69]

MOD EDIT:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-ukrainian-refugee-destinations/

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/tDfRo

 

[Yak-130 Mitten]

I do like this infographic acknowledges russian ownership of crimea.

 

[Tom Nook's Gloryhole]

The interesting part about 'rehoming' is that it all but confirms that win or lose, Ukraine is practically dead once the war is over. Even if every country boots their Ukrainians out of the country, they will probably never want to return because they'll face the social stigma of abandoning the country during their time of need. Ukrainians born in Crimea and other occupied territories will technically now be Russian if Ukraine cedes the area in a peace deal.

I don't blame them one bit tbh because facing almost certain death as an inexperienced meat shield vs living on the streets in Warsaw is a no brainer.

 

[Overly Serious]

View attachment 5021308

Am I correct in my understanding that Russia has taken in more Ukranian refugees than Germany and Poland combined? I read a while ago that as many refugees fled into Russia as into Western countries and it's one of those things I mention to confound Westerners who think it's Ukraine vs. Russia rather than a Ukranian civil war in which Russia intervened.

I'd love to see a break down of the refugee numbers by sex, as well. A polish person I knew was visibly excited at the prospect of desperate and de-homed Ukranian women flooding into his country. It would amuse me no end to see him confronted by a bunch of burly male war-dodgers.

EDIT:

The interesting part about 'rehoming' is that it all but confirms that win or lose, Ukraine is practically dead once the war is over. Even if every country boots their Ukrainians out of the country, they will probably never want to return because they'll face the social stigma of abandoning the country during their time of need

True of those fleeing into the West. Those that fled into Russia will be able to return to areas that remain under Russian control. Even if they remain in Russia itself, Russia is not short of land or energy (unlike the crowded countries of Western Europe).

 

[kuuu]

Am I correct in my understanding that Russia has taken in more Ukranian refugees than Germany and Poland combined

If you count from the start of SMO(including new provinces) - debatable. If you count from 2014 - most definitely.