Chinese Military Operations in Taiwan

[cybertoaster]

It's not like this is arcane knowledge or something, it will take years but eventually that process will be replicated and improved by China and others. Look at nuclear weapons, it's a complex process as well, but even Pakistan has them now.

Nukes are nearly 80-year old tech, any country that can't get a 3nm semiconductor operation 80 years from now will be a certified shithole.

But hey, great idea consolidating the West's main source of computer chips to a tiny island halfway across the world that China has territorial claims on. Genius move.

We didn't do that, it was a concerted effort funded by the taiwanese government to make themselves irreplaceable thus forcing the west to act if china showed up again.

Compare that with ukraine which has literally nothing deemed of vital importance to the west, which is why when keeping this shitshow going becomes too expensive or politically charged we're gonna leave them to die like we did to afghanistan or any of the banana republics we propped up against commies only to let our "freedom fighters" there to get rats shoved up their asses after we left.

That's assuming no other country/company has killswitches in the machinery.

Killswitches don't work, the french had it for the exocet missiles and gave them to the brits during the falklands war, only for the argentines to hack it and get the missiles working again. Same would happen here, which is why if china shows up all ASML machines are scheduled to be airlifted to japan or destroyed.

And also assumes everyone will continue to supply an occupied Taiwan.

Well china will, and all the countries they now have by the balls with the belt&road scheme.

SMIC is running the third most advanced fab in the world right now, with 1st being TSMC and 2nd Samsung.

Which is why when you think about it it makes more sense for china to cripple or even blow TSMC up, they would be getting rid of the competition.

SMIC already has former TSMC employees that they lured with better pay and they even brought trade secrets with them. This is also why the plan is to also get TSMC employees out of taiwan during an invasion, not because they will end in a chinese gulag but because the ccp will be like "I pay you triple!" and those guys will take the offer with a smile.

It is chips. A 3 year shortage of mobile phones and tablets is not an apocalypse.

You will still get your government-sponsored 24/7 tracking device, aka:smartphone, since those can run perfectly well with older tech than TSMC's. Same with practically all other consumer-level tech.

What's gonna get fucked with this is basically everything else, all the fancy tech used to push computing forward and solve problems.

Germany shut down its remaining nuclear plants on schedule.

Which is retarded, with or without russian gas.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

We didn't do that, it was a concerted effort funded by the taiwanese government to make themselves irreplaceable thus forcing the west to act if china showed up again.

And the west just went along with it, completely oblivious to the consequences?

The wise and mighty Taiwan fooled the gullible American dogs yet again! How did those Americans became a superpower in the first place when every country like Taiwan or Ukraine or Romania can scam them for billions of dollars, I don't know.

Which is why when you think about it it makes more sense for china to cripple or even blow TSMC up, they would be getting rid of the competition.

SMIC already has former TSMC employees that they lured with better pay and they even brought trade secrets with them. This is also why the plan is to also get TSMC employees out of taiwan during an invasion, not because they will end in a chinese gulag but because the ccp will be like "I pay you triple!" and those guys will take the offer with a smile.

I definitely agree there. Doubt any TSMC employees will take their own lives just to safeguard some corporate secrets. Poor bastards probably have people assigned to them to kill them in case China invades.

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

Which is retarded, with or without russian gas.

I agree, nuclear is a much better choice than any fossil fuel or alternative source. Not to mention having a nuclear power infrastructure means you also have the ability to produce nuclear weapons. That's Japan's ace in the hole against China.

 

[Betonhaus]

We seem to have different ideas of what a crisis means. Having to pay more for slightly slower chips that come from Korea/China instead of Taiwan is not a crisis. People will not go hungry over this.

Nintendo gamers will be fine, but PC gamers will be devastated.

 

[cybertoaster]

And the west just went along with it, completely oblivious to the consequences?

No, we just didn't consider our semiconductor fabrication sector to be of strategic importance, just the design and R&D, also didn't help that early semiconductor fabs were cancer dispensers that turned the locations into superfunds so all the hippies were more than glad that those were being shipped elsewhere.

But more importantly our semiconductor sector got outclassed by the japanese in the 80's, so we were more than glad to see the taiwanese outclass them. And now we're fucked because taiwan its an even easier target than japan ever was.

 

[TIM4EUS]

I dont understand taiwan love. I dont like taiwan, theyre like a chink ukraine. just another flavor of globohomo. so cringe seeing total chuds nuthug taiwan just because they hate china, in spite of the fact that china is much closer to the chud ideology than soy taiwan is

for me personally I like china, but I dont agree with everything they do. even if I didnt like china that doesnt mean I have to automatically like taiwan. im allowed to dislike taiwan AND china if I want to. the same people that automatically like taiwan and hate china are probably the same people that voted for trump and think elections matter lol

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

Nintendo gamers will be fine, but PC gamers will be devastated.

I replace my hardware like once every 10 years and have just built a new desktop. Can wait a few years for a new Chinese-made GPU.

No, we just didn't consider our semiconductor fabrication sector to be of strategic importance, just the design and R&D, also didn't help that early semiconductor fabs were cancer dispensers that turned the locations into superfunds so all the hippies were more than glad that those were being shipped elsewhere.

But more importantly our semiconductor sector got outclassed by the japanese in the 80's, so we were more than glad to see the taiwanese outclass them. And now we're fucked because taiwan its an even easier target than japan ever was.

Yeah, I guess that makes sense. Hubris and poor planning. At least once TSMC goes, the West will be forced to develop its own semiconductor sector more. Long term it may not be such a bad thing. Of course they'll end up behind China, but that's entirely their fault.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

The wise and mighty Taiwan fooled the gullible American dogs yet again! How did those Americans became a superpower in the first place when every country like Taiwan or Ukraine or Romania can scam them for billions of dollars, I don't know.

For Ukraine, Romania and the rest of the former Soviet bloc it's about natural resources - not just the natural resources in the ground of those countries but access and proximity to Russia where operations can be set up to destabilize and undermine Russian society with the goal being to replace its government. Then loot it's massive natural resources and a short(er) distance to the Chinese border to wash, rinse and repeat. This has been US/NATO strategy for decades now. They don't give a shit about those peoples or muh democracy, that's just the story they tell their own people for political support. It's about the spice must flow!

 

[Betonhaus]

I wonder if we will have a rise in 3d printing and local production, so if you want something you buy a one-time license to get a local shop to make it?

Balenciaga approved seamstress making tailor-made jackets
maybe Nintendo woul allow you to commision a snes equivalent from a local chip shop

 

[GatorAids]

All you have to do to defeat the chink army is drop a bunch of crates of rat poison with a note attached saying it will make their peepee hard if they eat it.

 

[Male Idiot]

Nintendo gamers will be fine, but PC gamers will be devastated.

I replace my hardware like once every 10 years and have just built a new desktop. Can wait a few years for a new Chinese-made GPU.


Yeah, I guess that makes sense. Hubris and poor planning. At least once TSMC goes, the West will be forced to develop its own semiconductor sector more. Long term it may not be such a bad thing. Of course they'll end up behind China, but that's entirely their fault.

This, crypto has fucked gamers harder than China taking nvidia offline for 5 years ever could.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

This, crypto has fucked gamers harder than China taking nvidia offline for 5 years ever could.

It did fuck things up a bit, but crypto also pushed forward the creation of low cost GPUs that can be used for other tasks like machine learning.

https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/new-report-from-techinsight%EF%BC%9Asmic-7nm-is-truly-7nm-technology-how-it-compares-to-tsmc-7nm.16725/

 

[quackrock]

I wonder if we will have a rise in 3d printing and local production, so if you want something you buy a one-time license to get a local shop to make it?

Put this question to your local mechanical engineer if he needs a good laugh.

 

[Betonhaus]

Put this question to your local mechanical engineer if he needs a good laugh.

we would need to develop the infrastructure, and more complicated parts might need to be done in bulk in the big city nearby instead of your town, and products would have to be designed in mind for this with off the shelf kits like node.js units, but it is doable. you could have hybrid solutions where you order core components and get the remainder made with 3d printing or milling and off the shelf electronics.
Realistically Nintendo may not be on board for providing their current gen consoles, but they could be persuaded to license older consoles and games for this. You can make a SNES equivalent with generic controllers and a raspberry pi, Nintendo could offer a solution where you buy a license to get the shell 3d-printed and an encrypted ROM that can only be loaded onto the universal chipset at the local shop.

 

[Chongqing]

I think the West underestimates how many poor people there are in Taiwan who want to be a part of China because of economic reasons.

I think the West also underestimates how effective it would be if the Chinese government showed up and told everyone that they're going to jail if they rebel.

With Ukraine, I feel like the West somehow tricked the Ukranian populace into becoming ok with fighting to the last Ukranian. I don't think we'll be able to trick the Taiwanese.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

I don't think we'll be able to trick the Taiwanese.

...especially considering that the Taiwanese have been watching Ukraine very closely for the last year and most of them do not want to end up in that situation.

 

[captkrisma]

I definitely agree there. Doubt any TSMC employees will take their own lives just to safeguard some corporate secrets. Poor bastards probably have people assigned to them to kill them in case China invades

Most of these factories are staffed with Filipinos that live in on-site dorms because they're cheap manual labor.

Getting the employees out is a priority over getting the Philippine government's jimmies rustled.

 

[FILTH Tourist]

However, Taiwanese conscription requires a service of four months, which means jackshit. Compare that to South Korea, which is a year and a half and over, and Singapore, which is two years. In fact, soldiers of the ROC only learn "basic stuff" and not tactics nor specialized training so the ROC Army is like incompetent as this point.

It got shorten to 4 months in 2013 but they are revamping it to a year starting in 2024. Which means that the 30+ year olds still got the extended training, which means most of the population. Also the 4 month training is actually heavily specialized with 1/4th of it being basic and the rest of it being tactics and specialization.

The point of the conscripts is to act as support, garrisons, and rear guard so the professional army can focus on actually fighting.

https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202212270009

Plus, the mountains in the Center and East set up a good barrier against incursions from an American force from the Pacific Ocean.

There are still a few major routes and railways on the east side that connect to major cities on the west side. If the Americans land they can still move troops and reinforce the cities. The CCP can not ignore the east.

The only city that is surrounded by mountains is Taipei, but the rest of the main cities are on flatlands.

If you been to Taichung that place is really surrounded by mountains. A lot of Taiwanese cities are built up against them and on those mountans are military bases.

The point is that it isn't as flat of a march as you think, there is little room to maneuver armies, the CCP can't ignore the mountans due to the threats on them and the passes though them.

 

[Fatniggo1488]

@FILTH Tourist
>Keep in mind that Taiwan has a conscription program similar to SK. So if something does go down every male would at least have some idea on what to do (in theory at least).
In theory, that could possibly workish in the SK context because SK has a substantial amount of strategic depth. It wouldn't matter how badly they got their asses kicked by China, they'd still be able to function as a cohesive government for months on end. This is one of the things which has greatly aided Ukraine. It's a massive country and Russia can't actually put pressure on the entirety of Ukraine at once. That's not case for Taiwan. Lets say China only invaded on the southern most point of Taiwan. They could still hit the northern most point of Taiwan with rocket artillery from there. Regardless of how many conscripts you have, you're still going to have to put rifles in their hands and get them to actually go to the front line.
>But is all that coastline strategically sound? Only a few parts would be able to support a massive landing with the terrain and nearby infrastructure.
It's actually almost all sound. Even the harsher beaches on the eastern coast of Taiwan come with the trade off of being able to quickly capture high ground which would make a counter attack very difficult. Likewise, we're not talking about something like the D day landings. There's not a hard garrisoned force on the beaches China would have to fight through. Once they get boots on the ground, they would likely have hours to take more coastline. Additionally, Taiwan operating with the assumption of counter attacking any landing forces off the beaches is extremely precarious. Let's say China makes a landing on one beach with a couple of thousand men, Taiwan pulls the trigger on its QRF forces and then China makes 20 other landings on other beaches.
>Taiwan is surprisingly tiny and their army is spread out. There is no way that China could sneak in a landing party significant enough to hold a beachhead for the rest of the invasion.
That's not a good thing. You're not going to stop a force of several thousand men who just need to move forward with a couple hundred men. Shit one of the reasons Sparta chose to fight Persia at Thermopylae was because it was basically the only place that Persia couldn't just easily go around the Spartans and complete their objectives whether they won the battle or not, and the Spartans still ended up encircled and wiped out.
>The mountains split the country in two and thr Taiwanese army would control it.
If they didn't take a bunch of casualties in the initial engagement, yes they would. That's one of the reasons I said they'd likely be better off just occupying the mountains rather than attempting to fight on the coast line.
>If they land on the west side they will be boxed be by Taiwanese troops to the north and south.
>If they land in the south and north then they would need to split their forces and march up the east and west sides.
This thinking goes to what I said before. There's no reason to assume China would only land in one location. If Taiwanese command does assume that, they run the risk of being encircled.
>The only real key bits of infrastructure is the highway and railway that loops around the island (that will get destroyed) and small airports.
They can destroy bridges and make them unusable, sure. You're not going to level a no shit road so badly that tracked vehicles are not going to be able to easily use it. China can also do the same thing to them, and there's actually a bridge on the northeastern side of Taiwan I likely would destroy if I were China regardless of where I landed.
>It will be a slow and painful march.
A slow and painful march on a small island is still a rapid conquest. Iwo Jima only lasted 36 days and while yes, it was a smaller island, it was very well fortified and garrisoned by people who legit got boners at the thought of dying in battle and taking as many enemies out with them as they could before they did.

 

[FILTH Tourist]

That's not case for Taiwan. Lets say China only invaded on the southern most point of Taiwan. They could still hit the northern most point of Taiwan with rocket artillery from there. Regardless of how many conscripts you have, you're still going to have to put rifles in their hands and get them to actually go to the front line.

Same goes for China though. If they land in the south and fire rockets at Taipei, the Taiwanese can just fire rockets back.

Also the front line for a Taiwanese solder is just a short drive away while Chinese soldiers are bittlenecked by a boat convoy that is under constant attack.

That's not a good thing. You're not going to stop a force of several thousand men who just need to move forward with a couple hundred men. Shit one of the reasons Sparta chose to fight Persia at Thermopylae was because it was basically the only place that Persia couldn't just easily go around the Spartans

My point exactly. Taiwanese armies are spread out but can quickly move and reinforce each other no batter where they land. China can't sneak in a force large enough to fight the local garrisons without alerting the island snd getting people to mobilize. The island layout is one big hot gates as they are fighting with the sea on one side and the mountains on the other. Not to mention the logistical bottlenecked of just getting Chinese troops and gear to the island.

If Taiwanese command does assume that, they run the risk of being encircled.

Another reason why being spread out is a good thing. If they land they can have someone on top of them immediately and quickly reinforced no matter where or how many.

You're not going to level a no shit road so badly that tracked vehicles are not going to be able to easily use it.

Will China have enough tracked vehicles? Most logistics is motorized.

Iwo Jima only lasted 36 days and while yes, it was a smaller island, it was very well fortified and garrisoned by people who legit got boners at the thought of dying in battle and taking as many enemies out with them as they could before they did

Iwo Jima was a shitty garrison on a rock and they lasted over a month. That alone should demonstrate how much of a bad idea attacking islands are.

Taiwan has millions of people with God knows how many of them would be given guns and looking at possible US and JP support too. If the Taiwanese are half as crazy as the japanese when it comes to defending their home, the human cost on the Chinese side wouldn't have been worth it.