Chinese Military Operations in Taiwan

[SaidNoOneEver]

I don't think China would open the invasion with a surprise attack on the main island. I think they would attack the many small islands, owned by Taiwan, located in the surrounding seas. The most important of these are the Pearl Islands, or Penghu. The Qing conquering these islands - they're located a ways off of the heavily populated western coast of Taiwan - lead to the immediate surrender of the Taiwanese Ming rump state ages ago. The most easy to conquer of all the islands would be Quemoy, which is within spitting distance of Mainland China. Once all the islands were within their control, they could militarize them as they have other small islets in the South China Sea. Once they had these bases in place, they could threaten a blockade the of main island backed up by an expanded net of missile defenses, which seems to be their MO when it comes to expanding their security umbrella. Taiwan is very food insecure, much moreso than the Mainland, and couldn't long survive any kind of blockade. The US Navy would probably take pretty high losses if they ventured into the overlapping missile defenses. It might end as it did the first time that the Mainland expanded into Taiwan all those years ago: with the other side seeing the writing on the wall.

Can you elaborate on the "many small islands owned by Taiwan" part? How is that any different than "Taiwan is an island owned by China"? All of it is just "China".

 

[BradCarter]

Glad to know we will have to segregate forums again if the war happens. People just can't help picking teams and getting personally invested like it's a football game.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

If an invasion of Taiwan were to happen (as opposed to China accomplishing their goals by diplomatic and economic means), most likely the island would get pummeled by drones and artillery for weeks before a single troop even sets foot on the island. Once the the defenses are softened enough, then they'll proceed with sending troops.

 

[Betonhaus]

Glad to know we will have to segregate forums again if the war happens. People just can't help picking teams and getting personally invested like it's a football game.

Technically it's not choosing teams as much as having differing opinions on what is considered a trustworthy news source and a fact. One side likes to watch beheading videos, the other likes to go over known tactical data with a fine toothed comb.

 

[wtfNeedSignUp]

If an invasion of Taiwan were to happen (as opposed to China accomplishing their goals by diplomatic and economic means), most likely the island would get pummeled by drones and artillery for weeks before a single troop even sets foot on the island. Once the the defenses are softened enough, then they'll proceed with sending troops.

It's very risky since they will be blasting civilians during those weeks (including any foreigners that will be there during the time). Probably most military targets are built in hard to reach places anyways, and even without Chinese tech "reliability" it's a matter of time until someone fucks up in the command/targeting/intelligence and you end up with a burning orphanage.

It's also a problem with weeks of massive global economic campaign against you, especially since you aren't committed yet so countries can be as harsh as they want.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

It's very risky since they will be blasting civilians during those weeks (including any foreigners that will be there during the time). Probably most military targets are built in hard to reach places anyways, and even without Chinese tech "reliability" it's a matter of time until someone fucks up in the command/targeting/intelligence and you end up with a burning orphanage.

It's also a problem with weeks of massive global economic campaign against you, especially since you aren't committed yet so countries can be as harsh as they want.

Unless the Taiwanese follow the classic Ukrainian/Palestinian strategy of "If we put weapons in schools and hospitals and the enemy blows them up, we win," that's not going to happen.

Modern drones and munitions can hit specific targets with a very high degree of accuracy. Just look at the recent Israeli strikes on Gaza or Russia's strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, both resulted in minimal casualties, not counting the occasional errant Ukrainian S300 missile taking out some Psheks.

Regarding a "global" (western) economic campaign and sanctions and such, look at how effective it was against Russia, which is not at all.

 

[siegemeister675]

Unless the Taiwanese follow the classic Ukrainian/Palestinian strategy of "If we put weapons in schools and hospitals and the enemy blows them up, we win," that's not going to happen.

Modern drones and munitions can hit specific targets with a very high degree of accuracy. Just look at the recent Israeli strikes on Gaza or Russia's strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, both resulted in minimal casualties, not counting the occasional errant Ukrainian S300 missile taking out some Psheks.

Regarding a "global" (western) economic campaign and sanctions and such, look at how effective it was against Russia, which is not at all.

Are you serious? Artillery doesn't have the range to hit most targets in Taiwan, they would need to use missiles, and Taiwan is brimming with AA defenses and will be surrounded by US ships capable of AA.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

Are you serious? Artillery doesn't have the range to hit most targets in Taiwan, they would need to use missiles, and Taiwan is brimming with AA defenses and will be surrounded by US ships capable of AA.

Do you seriously not know what rocket artillery is? China had it since... *checks notes* 1232 AD.

Also lol @ US ships helping out, the mutts will be a non-factor at that point if it comes down to an actual military invasion of Taiwan. Nobody gives a shit about a cold war era carrier battle group that can be easily sank with a salvo of hypersonic missiles. Americans know how vulnerable they are, that's why they're going to stay out of it.

 

[siegemeister675]

Do you seriously not know what rocket artillery is? China had it since... *checks notes* 1232 AD.

Also lol @ US ships helping out, the mutts will be a non-factor at that point if it comes down to an actual military invasion of Taiwan. Nobody gives a shit about a cold war era carrier battle group that can be easily sank with a salvo of hypersonic missiles. Americans know how vulnerable they are, that's why they're going to stay out of it.

The cope here is amazing lol, if it's such a non-issue what is stopping the glorious PLA from just reuniting the Middle Kingdom right now?

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

The cope here is amazing lol, if it's such a non-issue what is stopping the glorious PLA from just reuniting the Middle Kingdom right now?

Because you're an idiot who isn't familiar with Chinese mentality. Why rush into something that will inevitably happen anyway?

As the Westerners believe Sun Tzu said, “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.”
Not that it was actually ever said, but the point is valid.

 

[Rei is Shit.]

The Chinese military has about 100 helicopters and total those aren't all transport helicopters we actually don't know how many of the modern transport helicopters they have my guessing is probably around 30
And most of the Chinese Air Force is outdated s*** from the Cold War

You're helicopter estimate is way, way off. Like a factor of >10 off. This is what ISW gives for the PLAGF;

HELICOPTERS
ATK 300+: 180 WZ-10; 120+ WZ-19
MRH 208: 22 Mi-17 Hip H; 3 Mi-17-1V Hip H; 38 Mi-17V-5 Hip H; 25 Mi-17V-7 Hip H; ɛ120
Z-9WZ
TPT 398: Heavy 111: 9 Z-8A; 96 Z-8B; 6 Z-8L; Medium 219: 140 Mi-171; 19 S-70C2 (S-70C)
Black Hawk; ɛ60 Z-20; Light 68: 15 H120 Colibri; 53 Z-11

Second the average airframe life of the PLAAF is something like 15-20 years newer than the USAF. If most of the Chinese air force is outdated shit then what is the US air force?

 

[siegemeister675]

You're helicopter estimate is way, way off. Like a factor of >10 off. This is what ISW gives for the PLAGF;

HELICOPTERS
ATK 300+: 180 WZ-10; 120+ WZ-19
MRH 208: 22 Mi-17 Hip H; 3 Mi-17-1V Hip H; 38 Mi-17V-5 Hip H; 25 Mi-17V-7 Hip H; ɛ120
Z-9WZ
TPT 398: Heavy 111: 9 Z-8A; 96 Z-8B; 6 Z-8L; Medium 219: 140 Mi-171; 19 S-70C2 (S-70C)
Black Hawk; ɛ60 Z-20; Light 68: 15 H120 Colibri; 53 Z-11

Second the average airframe life of the PLAAF is something like 15-20 years newer than the USAF. If most of the Chinese air force is outdated shit then what is the US air force?

LOL tell me again how attack helicopters are doing in Ukraine?

 

[IAmNotAlpharius]

With Ukraine, I feel like the West somehow tricked the Ukranian populace into becoming ok with fighting to the last Ukranian. I don't think we'll be able to trick the Taiwanese.

It really wasn’t a trick, I’ve known some Ukranians for years and they hate Russians because of the Soviet Union. With Taiwanese they generally don’t want to be controlled by the CCP but they don’t have the same visceral hatred that many Slavic people have of each other.

 

[captkrisma]

It really wasn’t a trick, I’ve known some Ukranians for years and they hate Russians because of the Soviet Union. With Taiwanese they generally don’t want to be controlled by the CCP but they don’t have the same visceral hatred that many Slavic people have of each other.

I've learned from first-hand experience that the fastest way to fight a Taiwanese is to call them Chinese. The local populace holds their identity in very high regard.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

LOL tell me again how attack helicopters are doing in Ukraine?

If a shooting invasion were in the cards whatever AA defenses Taiwan has would be destroyed quickly before any regular Chinese military or aircraft would be in harms way. China has basically limitless surface-to-surface munitions to do that with and there is no way for Taiwan to resupply.

Spoiler

Taiwan is an island.

I've learned from first-hand experience that the fastest way to fight a Taiwanese is to call them Chinese. The local populace holds their identity in very high regard.

You haven't spoken to everyone in Taiwan. Polling shows about half see themselves as Chinese. Why do you think they haven't held a vote for independence? There's a better than zero chance it would fail outright.

 

[siegemeister675]

If a shooting invasion were in the cards whatever AA defenses Taiwan has would be destroyed quickly before any regular Chinese military or aircraft would be in harms way. China has basically limitless surface-to-surface munitions to do that with and there is no way for Taiwan to resupply.

Spoiler

Taiwan is an island.

You haven't spoken to everyone in Taiwan. Polling shows about half see themselves as Chinese. Why do you think they haven't held a vote for independence? There's a better than zero chance it would fail outright.

How are those ballistic and cruise missiles going to stop 10,000 guys with MANPADS scattered all over the island?

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

How are those ballistic and cruise missiles going to stop 10,000 guys with MANPADS scattered all over the island?

This isn't a video game kid. There aren't 10,000 guys with MANPADS on Taiwan and there won't be.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

This isn't a video game kid. There aren't 10,000 guys with MANPADS on Taiwan and there won't be.

But bro, LazerNig on YouTube said that Taiwan is an unassailable island fortress and every Taiwanese person has a MANPAD stashed in their shack. If China tries to rush B, they're gonna get 360 noscoped.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

But bro, LazerNig on YouTube said that Taiwan is an unassailable island fortress and every Taiwanese person has a MANPAD stashed in their shack.

Taiwan had about 1,000 of them and nobody is factoring how many members of the Taiwanese military just might happen to be pro-Chinese.

'Raining Down' Missiles On Chinese Boats, Taiwan Seeks FGM-148 Javelin MANPADS That Ukraine Used To Deflate Russian Tanks

Taiwan is looking at the US-made FGM-148 Javelin portable anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) for being able to hit People’s Liberation Army (PLA) armored vehicles and troop-carrying boats for an amphibious landing. Reports from Taiwanese media quoted unnamed military officials giving details of...

eurasiantimes.com

[EDIT: also of note: Taiwan has about half the population Ukraine did when that war started and China has 10x the population of Russia to draw reserves from]

 

[Male Idiot]

what male idiot failed to account for is that EVERYBODY is soyed up these days, so if the chinks are hypothetically soyed up it doesnt matter since everyone else is the same or worse

People were comparing them to WW2 japs. I pointed out the difference between modern chinks and japs from a human lifetime ago. Learn to read.