Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Corpun]

If that's the case the CIA may warrant a bit more respect then I have been giving it. There's still too much USSR levels of delusion going on though, and I have no idea how it will play out.

The CIA is still deluded but bear in mind the ATF, FBI, and CIA's primary aims are to legitmize their own existences and increased funding. It's why the Feds make all those honey pots to broadcast. Pretty much every Alphabet Agency has the same MO. The CIA will go along with it for now but I doubt a war like this was ever in their interests.

A lot of people act like the Deep State is some intertwined nebulous entity, but these are mostly careerists vying for dominance in the same body while at the same time remaining civil. A good parallel is all those agencies in the USSR. They had a lot more freedom of movement and in certain period, like Stalin's death, there were a lot of internal purges of rivals and enemies. One can only think of how the glowies would act once the US really begins showing cracks.

 

[01169]

This is another issue that leaves me scratching my head. Ukraine has already signed major contracts with Western companies for rebuilding after the war, etc. They are acting like the issue is settled and actually winning the war is just a formality.

Whatever happens the US knows that Germany and the EU will pay for it. We're just THAT fucked.

 

[Krokodil Overdose]

I can't legally give you anything more than a "just trust me bro" level of proof, but the US/West has thrown/is throwing the full weight of their MI and surveillance apparatus at Ukraine, including the entire spy satellite network.

The US didn't want to lose in Vietnam either, but Northern rice gooks with Mosins cared more about freeing their country than south rice gooks with M14s cared about maintaining western influence.

The US media absolutely wanted to lose in Vietnam, especially once Nixon took over and started getting results. Why do you think Vietnam coverage was built on misery porn and "muh war crimes" while taking North Vietnamese talking points as fact? Remember that the entire journalist profession has been deep throating every communist since FDR, and the idea of the US vetoing a commie takeover of Vietnam by force of arms was repulsive to them- doubly so if it was done by that asshole Nixon #RememberAlgerHiss

The CIA is still deluded but bear in mind the ATF, FBI, and CIA's primary aims are to legitmize their own existences and increased funding. It's why the Feds make all those honey pots to broadcast. Pretty much every Alphabet Agency has the same MO. The CIA will go along with it for now but I doubt a war like this was ever in their interests.

A lot of people act like the Deep State is some intertwined nebulous entity, but these are mostly careerists vying for dominance in the same body while at the same time remaining civil. A good parallel is all those agencies in the USSR. They had a lot more freedom of movement and in certain period, like Stalin's death, there were a lot of internal purges of rivals and enemies. One can only think of how the glowies would act once the US really begins showing cracks.

Yes and no. On one hand, it's not done x-files esque top down conspiracy, that requires too much coordination between too many moving parts. OTOH it's not various corporate segments fighting, that would generate purges and some level of accountability. Its actually somewhere between the two, with the professional managerial class acting on interoffice rivalries but not being too deeply invested in them because there's always a safety net for people like them- there's basically no consequences for failure, so they can act out whatever stupid fetish or dumb idea they feel like as long as they don't act against class interests.

An instructive example here is Christian Holmes, Elizabeth Holmes's father. Despite being "poor" by PMC standards, he floated effortlessly between working for the State Department, the board of directors for Enron (!) and then the leadership of the World Wildlife Foundation NGO. So tell me, what possible skill set can a man possess that allows him to jump from executive position to executive position across totally unrelated fields?

That's why it works out the way it does: all these "separate" things are made up of the same people, either by connection (members of the same fraternity, married to each other, investing in each other's startups) or by being literally the same fucking people.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

The South Vietnamese leaders installed by the US long before Nixon became President were so thoroughly corrupt that victory against a committed enemy was impossible no matter how many expensive toys they were given. Same thing with Ukraine.

 

[Krokodil Overdose]

The South Vietnamese leaders installed by the US long before Nixon became President were so thoroughly corrupt that victory against a committed enemy was impossible no matter how many expensive toys they were given. Same thing with Ukraine.

Which is why they didn't start losing until the US reneged on it's obligations under the PPA?

 

[Michael Wade]

You need 3 things to pull off victory:

Accurate intel: difficult as fuck to get anything now that the Russians have wised up.

Enough armed assets with the will to fight: to their credit the Ukrainians had willpower and assets at first, but they don't have parity to match let alone outclass the Russians anymore as the war keeps grinding on

Good leadership to act upon the prior two: the ukrainians are fucked

 

[Betonhaus]

Which is why they didn't start losing until the US reneged on it's obligations under the PPA?

it's easy to hold your own in a war if you have inexhaustible military welfare supporting you, no matter how incompetent you are. But the moment that supply gets cut off?

 

[Rubick]

Vietnam

Vietnam is a case of Americans should have told the French to go fuck themselves. Especially with the amount of horrific shit French were doing there. Made nice with Ho Chi Minh.

Chances are Vietnam would have ended up the best American ally in Asia. So many goddamn things would have been different. And no Pol Pot. Whom hilariously Americans ended up backing and Commie Vietnamese put a stop too. Which in turn made the Americans even more butt hurt.

 

[Just Some Other Guy]

Whom hilariously Americans ended up backing and Commie Vietnamese put a stop too. Which in turn made the Americans even more butt hurt.

We're really not good at picking winners.

 

[Betonhaus]

We're really not good at picking winners.

I'd conjecture that the leaders America likes to install as puppets are never really winner material.

 

[Krokodil Overdose]

it's easy to hold your own in a war if you have inexhaustible military welfare supporting you, no matter how incompetent you are. But the moment that supply gets cut off?

Wait, I thought that the South Vietnamese couldn't win in spite of the massive welfare because they couldn't match the Nietzschian fighting spirit of pickle jar babushka "rice farmers with mosins." Now they only lost because that welfare was cut off? A consistent story would be nice. (OFC the real story is "America did what it always does, cultivate junior partners and the ratfuck them in a whim.")

You need 3 things to pull off victory:

Accurate intel: difficult as fuck to get anything now that the Russians have wised up.

If the Thugshaker leaks are legit, then the US's intelligence wasn't as great as everyone thought- they're basically reposting numbers from Turkish bloggers about casualties, and admit that Ukraine is basically a black hole that they're dumping guns and money into with no real accountability as to how it's being used. It's a proxy war being run the same way that Congress passes continuing resolutions: giant piles of paperwork that nobody reads before signing and never follow up on.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

If the Thugshaker leaks are legit, then the US's intelligence wasn't as great as everyone thought- they're basically reposting numbers from Turkish bloggers about casualties, and admit that Ukraine is basically a black hole that they're dumping guns and money into with no real accountability as to how it's being used. It's a proxy war being run the same way that Congress passes continuing resolutions: giant piles of paperwork that nobody reads before signing and never follow up on.

Didn't one of the leaked slides show Ukrainian casualties at 17k, a number I could've sworn I saw Ukraine floating out last summer? It would mean that the US has basically no intel in Ukraine and are forced to just take Zelensky's word for things.

 

[Male Idiot]

I really doubt those numbers too. For this war, things would need to go really pear shaped before one side starts to loose so much more than the other. Especially if it is the bigger side.

 

[Betonhaus]

Wait, I thought that the South Vietnamese couldn't win in spite of the massive welfare because they couldn't match the Nietzschian fighting spirit of pickle jar babushka "rice farmers with mosins." Now they only lost because that welfare was cut off? A consistent story would be nice. (OFC the real story is "America did what it always does, cultivate junior partners and the ratfuck them in a whim.")

the military welfare is the only reason why they held out so long

If the Thugshaker leaks are legit, then the US's intelligence wasn't as great as everyone thought- they're basically reposting numbers from Turkish bloggers about casualties, and admit that Ukraine is basically a black hole that they're dumping guns and money into with no real accountability as to how it's being used. It's a proxy war being run the same way that Congress passes continuing resolutions: giant piles of paperwork that nobody reads before signing and never follow up on.

And to think that when this all started the Republicans wanted to have a paper trail attached to the funding while the Democrats refused to.

 

[Krokodil Overdose]

Didn't one of the leaked slides show Ukrainian casualties at 17k, a number I could've sworn I saw Ukraine floating out last summer? It would mean that the US has basically no intel in Ukraine and are forced to just take Zelensky's word for things.

The Z Twitter guys claims that the numbers come from Oryx (disclaimer: I haven't cross referenced this) by virtue of being literally the same numbers. If true, then S-4 is keeping with it's time honored tradition of copying someone else's homework because they don't think anyone will check. If true, again, this implies that the US glowies have no actual human intelligence in the area.

 

[Male Idiot]

The Z Twitter guys claims that the numbers come from Oryx (disclaimer: I haven't cross referenced this) by virtue of being literally the same numbers. If true, then S-4 is keeping with it's time honored tradition of copying someone else's homework because they don't think anyone will check. If true, again, this implies that the US glowies have no actual human intelligence in the area.

Unless that was part of a glow-op, and they just got lazy, and didn't think up a new number while fully knowing the casaulities at least on the scale of thousands.

 

[Betonhaus]

The Z Twitter guys claims that the numbers come from Oryx (disclaimer: I haven't cross referenced this) by virtue of being literally the same numbers. If true, then S-4 is keeping with it's time honored tradition of copying someone else's homework because they don't think anyone will check. If true, again, this implies that the US glowies have no actual human intelligence in the area.

That doesn't seem like a good thing. For Ukraine's closest ally to not know how long they will hold out, how do we know that Ukraine will just run out of people to fight within a week o two.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

As correctly predicted here, de-dollarization is happening a lot faster than western analysts expected. They even called the pace "stunning," kek. Guess no one wants a reserve currency that can be rendered worthless in an instant based on the whims of the increasingly desperate American gerontocracy.

De-Dollarization Is Happening at a ‘Stunning’ Pace, Jen Says

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar is losing its reserve status at a faster pace than generally accepted as many analysts have failed to account for last year’s wild exchange rate moves, according to Stephen Jen. Most Read from BloombergWorthless Degrees Are Creating an Unemployable Generation in...

finance.yahoo.com

De-Dollarization Is Happening at a ‘Stunning’ Pace, Jen Says

archived 18 Apr 2023 20:26:16 UTC

archive.ph

 

[Got Milk!]

From about an hour ago til now. Reports like this coming in:

️️URGENTLY !
In Zaporozhie region, 291 the regiment is repulsing an attempt to break through at this moment !!!️️️

️️️Tentatively, in the Zaporozhye direction, at the moment this is reconnaissance in force, and not a large-scale offensive.
The enemy cannot pass!!!️️️

️️️Grads" burned a hoard of enemy equipment on the Zaporozhye front ️️️


So it seems there is a lot going on in Zaporozhye direction tonight. A ton of speculation lately about that being the target of the illusive counteroffensive. Could also be a distraction to pull forces, or could be fuck all. First report I've seen of a potential break through by AFU in a while though so might be worth keeping an eye on


In other news, a Ukrainian Russian soldier stepped on a petal landmineb PMN-4. A big deal was made about them being dropped in a residential area not too long ago. (@kuuu thanks)

No gore or nsfw in vid. Everything from TG.

E: New update from TG 6 minutes after posting:

 

[kuuu]

In other news, a Ukrainian soldier stepped on a petal landmine. A big deal was made about them being dropped in a residential area not too long ago.

View attachment 5067508


E: from TG

E2: The video is very tame. No visible injury or anything. That's why it's not in a spoiler.

It was a Russian soldier.

Spoiler: Damage to the foot

The culprit(PMN-4):


Damage to the shoe(with fiberglass plate) and happy ending, the foot healed up nicely:

Dez_informator

Мне дали добро на размещение видео с момента самого подрыва. В такой листве конечно сложно заметить мину. Постарайтесь внимательно смотреть под ноги! А для бойца я придумаю какой нибудь подгон! Каналы с «уникальным» контентом будут выкладывать это видео?😅 @dez_informator

t.me