Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Everyone around him is merely a yesman and a patsy.
That'd include Medvedev who apparently did not impress his master when he officially posed as President for a few years. His sheer mediocrity, his 'I shit myself' expression, his limited facility language (Putin can still move between menace and emollience while Medvedev seems to have a bad script writer) however means his master need not tax himself with worry overmuch. After Putin, he'd last a week unless the powerful can work together and use him to read out their collective will. Still that sounds unlikely.
 

Patriots in Ukraine.JPG


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Between this, the leapords, Bradley's, heavy lifting trucks and the MIGs, I'd say Ukraine has all the pieces on the board. If there is any level of self awareness on Team Z, they'd should be clenching their buttholes right now.
IMO they need more AA's, the West needs to send at least double what they have already sent judging from the Pentagon leaks.
 
Between this, the leapords, Bradley's, heavy lifting trucks and the MIGs, I'd say Ukraine has all the pieces on the board. If there is any level of self awareness on Team Z, they'd should be clenching their buttholes right now.
They've run out of stolen toilets. None left for the poor mobiks to use while waiting for the world to go boom around them. I'm really hoping they put a floor drain in those T-55's so they can hose out all of piss shit and puke.
 
For those who don't know, "Igor Ivanovich Strelkov" is Igor Girkin. Girkin may be a piece of shit, but for the last several months, the things he's been saying about the war and its failures and about leadership incompetence have been pretty much on point. And his connections have kept him out of prison for his criticisms. So far.
Also the former "Supreme Commander of the Donetsk People's Republic", back in 2014 when they were actually capturing swathes of territory.
Between this, the leapords, Bradley's, heavy lifting trucks and the MIGs, I'd say Ukraine has all the pieces on the board. If there is any level of self awareness on Team Z, they'd should be clenching their buttholes right now.
You keep saying "When X happens, Team Z will no longer be able to cope".

I think you severely underestimate the people involved. Someone will just post a Telegram video claiming 3 Patriot batteries destroyed, and then everything will be fine.
 
Speaking of AA systems, a Russian Buk Air Defense system (9A310M1-2 TELAR) goes kaput in Panteleimonivka, Donetsk Oblast, courtesy of the 323 Ukrainian 109th Territorial Defence Brigade:
(also: https://nitter.net/UAWeapons/status/1648615122389065729)
I assume it's the work of a M982 Excalibur round?

IMO they need more AA's, the West needs to send at least double what they have already sent judging from the Pentagon leaks.
It's about time the Ukrainians moved away from relying on S-300 systems; their own indigenous manufactuer sector is largely either destroyed or heavily targeted and it's not like Russia will lend them anymore ammunition. Greece is willing to give their S-300 systems to Ukraine in exchange for a PAC-3 Patriot missile system (as they can't afford to give up any valuable AA, with Turkey constantly challenging them in the Aegean Sea). Bulgaria apparently has ten of their own; I wonder if they could afford to give them to Ukraine in exchange of some Patriots?
 
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Between this, the leapords, Bradley's, heavy lifting trucks and the MIGs, I'd say Ukraine has all the pieces on the board. If there is any level of self awareness on Team Z, they'd should be clenching their buttholes right now.
I would be caustic about it.
I think it can go really well, but I know there is a chance it can go really bad.
I hope Ukranie doesn't become too overconfident and think that Russia will just fold over.
 
I would be caustic about it.
I think it can go really well, but I know there is a chance it can go really bad.
I hope Ukranie doesn't become too overconfident and think that Russia will just fold over.
If it goes badly we probably won't even realize it. I don't think the Russians have the maneuver capability to envelop any Ukrainian breakthrough. So worst case scenario the Ukrainians get a vulhedar style bloody nose and call the whole thing off after losing a couple bradleys.
 
It's about time the Ukrainians moved away from relying on S-300 systems; their own indigenous manufactuer sector is largely either destroyed or heavily targeted and it's not like Russia will lend them anymore ammunition. Greece is willing to give their S-300 systems to Ukraine in exchange for a PAC-3 Patriot missile system (as they can't afford to give up any valuable AA, with Turkey constantly challenging them in the Aegean Sea). Bulgaria apparently has ten of their own; I wonder if they could afford to give them to Ukraine in exchange of some Patriots?
Patriots are better than S-300, since Ukraine is now operating Patriots it would make sense to just give more Patriots to Ukraine.
 
If it goes badly we probably won't even realize it. I don't think the Russians have the maneuver capability to envelop any Ukrainian breakthrough. So worst case scenario the Ukrainians get a vulhedar style bloody nose and call the whole thing off after losing a couple bradleys.
Ukraine only gets one throw of the dice here. If they get wrecked with minimal gains the pressure to end the war is going to start ramping up no matter what the US says about this lasting as long as it needs too.
 
The question becomes why would they feel the need to use T-55’s that way? Are they actually running low on artillery tubes or ammo? Because the T-55 is going to be a huge problem on the modern battlefield. Even the absolute oldest shit running around out there was still designed to at a minimum kill a T-55. If you’re using the T-55 for direct fire artillery rounds it’s great. if maybe you’re planning on stopping a Polish Cavalry charge? But Man Portable ATGM’s still out range the T-55‘s gun. Modern artillery and drones are shredding T-72’s from above. How long does anyone think a T-55 would last? Deploying T-55’s reeks more of “being seen to be doing something” rather than actually serving any practical or effective combat purpose.
Giving them the benefit of smarts, I figured they'd be used as mobile 2nd line reinforcements; to be held back in concealed areas out of range of drones, missiles, & short-range artillery, then sent in when Ukrainian forces have expended a bunch of ATGMs and drones during the initial assaults. The most maneuvering they'd be doing is driving straight ahead & going hull-down into unspotted, prepared positions. In that case I could see T-55s causing problems in some areas, but it won't take long before Ukrainians adapt their tactics & mitigate the threat. The Russians might surprise a few elements, but then they'll get isolated & murdered in their semi-mobile metal bunkers just the same.
I could see them maybe having utility for entrenched positions where the damn thing is buried in to ground and exists as a fixed gun emplacement. Maybe from within its own concrete bunker. This could work to guard the approaches of Crimea where any Ukrainian push would have to follow a predictable and narrow route.

If they actually intend to use them as a maneuver unit then lol, good luck.


"The tank you have is better than the tank you don't"

And forget ATGMs, T-55s/T-62s are vulnerable to RPGs.

From wonkinating I've seen about these museum pieces coming out, there is two main thoughts:
Firstly, the extreme underestimation how fucked Russia's war industry is from 2-4 decades of rot. They lack the ability to produce parts to the precision that modern tanks need in quantity. And while the T-72 isn't exactly science fiction, the level of skill & components to service them is lacking. Russian profiteers have been looting the T-72 stockpiles for decades, and very likely they are discovering that parts they were needing have been sold off.
So much like the T-62, T-55s parts can actually be produced and Krokodil-addicted mobliks can be trained to service them. A running T-55 is better than a non-functional T-72.

yes it uses weird moon rounds, yes it guzzles fuel, adn yes it uses different parts but adding T-55s to your inventory is only a drain on your logistics if you have functioning logistics, Comrade. They may get used as basically Wagner Convict brigades. You can send a bunch of T-55s out to soak up the enemy's anti-armor and then send your actual armor in later.


Second, as a more immediate concern about the UKA counter offensive, as rear guard morale boosters. During Khariv, the Ukrainians were using gun trucks to thunder run Russian positions - move in, hit a postion, move on before they can react. This + Russia's poor command communication caused a lot of Russian units to withdraw before they needed to - units that could have held out for days were instead running because they saw reports of units in their rear under attack and assumed they'd been flanked and were about to get cut off/encircled. This caused a cascade where more units fell back because other units were falling back, and we all know the result: Another brilliantly executed Russian feint, total hohol death.

Thus, in the interests of preserving Ukrainian lives, Russia hopes to stop the collapse of the front by giving rear line units tanks. Not only could a T-55's 100mm take out a truck, but the unit will be less likely to turn tail and abandon a position if they have armor.
Again, in convict brigade fashion, a couple T-55's don't need to win an engagement to be effective against a Ukrainian thrust - they just need to slow it down to give theater command time to respond.


I've also noticed that the Russians don't have any strategic depth to their units behind the line of contact, and they probably hope to do like they did with Kherson; pull the units in contact back to those defensive lines, and stop the Ukrainians there. But if the AFU breaks through anywhere (except near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, etc), Russia doesn't have much to slow them down except blocking troops, depleted units, mobiks who haven't been sent in yet, logistical troops, and artillery/AD brigades. Once breakthroughs start to happen, well....
Russia's doctrine provides unintentional defense in depth. Their doctrine is based on Artillery Supremacy and Chinese levels of moblik meat - as the units fall back eventually they reach critical mass to halt it + the enemy outruns their supply lines. Tons of tubes and overlapping positions keeps you from getting completely overrun.

The problem is if the Ukranian’s get to where they can see the approaches to Crimea, then anybody stationed on Crimea is already fucked as their food and water supply has been severed.
Russia supposedly is already looking at using their navy to keep Crimea supplied if the supply lines are threatened. They were sending company-level troop ships with submarine escorts a few months ago.

Though when I say I had an idea like this, I was thinking more like Beirut explosion, but Bakhmut. Letting wagnings move in after carefully retreating, making them think they won. Meanwhile there's an ungodly amount of fertilizer buried underneath the town, whatever remains of it. Boom.
In general this is a terrible idea. Explosives are unstable. You'd need to hide your explosives so they wouldn't be detected, and they should be looking, while still having them exposed enough to do damage and able to be triggered. Additionally you need to figure out before hand what buildings they would use for billetting/command.

You also forget about how much civies see and talk about. In WWII troops in Italy and France got a lot of heads up about german troop strengths by just asking the local vendors "What did the germans buy from you?"/"Have you seen a lot of trucks?" The odds of someone seeing your troops fucking around in a building will give the enemy heads up that there are good odds that building is mined or bugged.

From what I heard the Russians are running low on ammo for their artillery the barrels and the actual vehicles. People seem to forget about all that ammo the Ukrainians blew up with the HIMARS launchers last year. That really hurt the Russians. So much they are going to Iran and North Korea for ammo and supplies.
Remember two things:
First, "low on ammo" is a relative term. For both sides. They are still producing and shipping a lot of explosives, and as the attackers have more control over the rate of ammo expenditure.

Second, while hilarious remember Ukraine is getting Ammo from Sudan and Uganda of all places. Glass house, throwing stones. The cucked state of NATO arms production is a long overdue wakeup call, but Eurocuck politicians are probably just going to hit snooze again.

unless the powerful can work together and use him to read out their collective will
Buddy what do you think he was doing during his stint as President? Mededev has experience being the puppet-ruler for a stronger will. Do you think Maduro still runs Venezuela after like a decade and a half because of his impeccable state craft and adroit real politick?
 
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Oh yeah what is Venezuela up to lately? Last I heard they were fucked, and that was back in 2020.

Maduro Status: Still unchurro'd.
The DSP of Dictators continues to triumph in the face of the haters

Summer of 2022 Maduro has accepted the miraculous stroke of good luck that was dumped in his lap; turned his back on Putin, denounced Ukraine invasion, and is getting much needed external life-lines by making up some of the differential from the Russia removal from the market with their swamp sludge. Texaco has been welcomed back to try to restore some of their infrastructure.

Still pretty fucked tbqh, but they have been fucked for so long now they are used to it.
Used to it? I'm pretty sure by this point they have a fetish for it.

Maduro doesn't run Venezuela

Cuba does
Again, that's still Medvedev's future as a useful idiot coming in on the tails of a authoritarian cult-of-personality leader - only difference the security apparatus he will front for will be domestic.
 
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