Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Remember last year when Eastern European Countries were making noises about just sending all the MIG's they had sitting in mothballs to Ukraine?

Yeah, about that. All of those fighter aircraft are in Ukraine now. They have also been given NATO Standard Joint Direct Attack Munitions to use.

Why have you not seen them in action yet? Why haven't you seen Bradleys Seal Clubbing T72s yet! There is a reason Prigozhin has started publicly begging Putin to do something to end the war. He's on the front so he knows something does not add up. We have all these pictures of Avenger AAM systems, Bradleys with the Ukraine Cross on them, Leapords, dozens of MIGs transferred from former Warsaw Pact NATO states and despite the brutality of the fighting around Bakhmut...nothing. Not a one. No Bradleys. No MIGs. No Avengers. No Bradleys. Why.

The Why is very important because its obvious Ukraine has all this shit now. But they are not using it. Yet. The Yet is the critical component here. And the Yet is the G Spot in the Asshole the Russian Military has stuck its head so far up.

TBF they are probably still training on all that new shit...

 

[Uranus Pink]

Something you wouldn't have seen back during the Cold War. Bradley's and the M-55s Ukraine received recently and doing training something or another.

 

[mindlessobserver]

TBF they are probably still training on all that new shit...

Most of the training for any shit is practical application with a few weeks in literal application. A T72 crew with combat experience can be handed an M1A2 Abrams and trained on how to use it in a couple weeks. Ditto for a BMP Crew on a Bradley. The Fiddley Bits for maintenance may take longer, but that can be learned over time.

I got neg rated to oblivion for pointing this out in the last thread but it is true and fuck the vatniks. You can give a Ukrainian BMP crew a Bradley IFV and you have not given them a piece of space alien technology beyond their comprehension. You have given them a weapon system that does what the BMP lied about saying it can do. The only training required is showing them which button does what and convincing them that those buttons actually do what the manual says they do.

 

[Betonhaus]

The Why is very important because its obvious Ukraine has all this shit now. But they are not using it. Yet. The Yet is the critical component here. And the Yet is the G Spot in the Asshole the Russian Military has stuck its head so far up.

Would it add up if you assumed that Zelensky sold out to China to drag out this war, get as much money and weapons from NATO countries as possible, and distract America while China goes around convincing countries to give up the dollar?

 

[mindlessobserver]

Would it add up if you assumed that Zelensky sold out to China to drag out this war, get as much money and weapons from NATO countries as possible, and distract America while China goes around convincing countries to give up the dollar?

Sure, but math also says string theory and 12 dimensions of existence are real, provided you input the specific criteria required to make them true. Such a convoluted plan is however meaningless as it is non provable. Worse for this theory though is the biggest hinderance to China taking over Taiwan is not the US Army or Air Force, but the US Navy. And of the three, the US Navy is the least effected by what happens in Ukraine.

So this theory is bad. For a number of reasons.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Would it add up if you assumed that Zelensky sold out to China to drag out this war, get as much money and weapons from NATO countries as possible, and distract America while China goes around convincing countries to give up the dollar?

If Russia wanted this war to end they could just fucking withdraw back to Russia.

Since when is the nexus of "dragging out the war" on the country being invaded?

 

[Ghostse]

Why have you not seen them in action yet? [... ]
The Why is very important because its obvious Ukraine has all this shit now. But they are not using it. Yet. The Yet is the critical component here. And the Yet is the G Spot in the Asshole the Russian Military has stuck its head so far up.

The wonking I heard was last year Ukraine made their counter attack late in the year to give Russia minimum time to try to organize their own counter. Ukrainian soldiers could spent the winter in shelter shooting Russians trying to cross fields and forests in winter with no foliage. Ukraine got to rebuild their logistics with frozen ground, Russia's advance would eventually bog down in the mud - and if thye'd made gains of greater than 50 yards, they'd have to try cart supply and fortification material through said mud.

I have a feeling that Ukraine command would like to do similar again, but I don't think the political climate will allow them to sit on their toys that long.

Russia has also stopped the missile spam now that they can't freeze grandma by hitting the power grid - probably saving it for the first big concentration of armor they can locate, so Ukraine is needing to play a lot of cat and mouse.

While I would suspect a drive to Melitopol and maybe some action to Mariupol, it could be the northern supply lines at Svatove that get targeted. I don't know, and the fact no one on the internet knows means Ukraine Command is doing their job.

Most of the training for any shit is practical application with a few weeks in literal application. A T72 crew with combat experience can be handed an M1A2 Abrams and trained on how to use it in a couple weeks. Ditto for a BMP Crew on a Bradley. The Fiddley Bits for maintenance may take longer, but that can be learned over time.

I got neg rated to oblivion for pointing this out in the last thread but it is true and fuck the vatniks. You can give a Ukrainian BMP crew a Bradley IFV and you have not given them a piece of space alien technology beyond their comprehension. You have given them a weapon system that does what the BMP lied about saying it can do.

Disagree but not strongly; they'll know the basics of tanking, yes, but you need to train them on the new platform and get them used to it. Better than raw recruits. Someone in either this thread or the old thread had guys training on Leopards saying how easy it was to pick up the controls. There was also a crew of... I think it was a Krab, some mobile artillery, saying roughly the same.

They need to learn systems and, especially in your case of a T-72 to Abrams, they would need to train a 4th member and integrate them.

The main problem is the one you mentioned briefly: Logistics. You need to get parts in place and you need to get service crews trained. I have gone on and on about how hard it is to completely kill a tank. But if you don't have repair inplace, Mission/Mobility kills ARE total kills.

They should. It would be pretty cool.


But I am sure they will just use more stuff from movies and video games.

Kelly's Heroes doesn't get the love it deserves. Great flick with incredible talent.

 

[CuzinEd]

Girkin's schtick is basically "kill all da holols" but he's critical of Russian command because he thinks they are bungling the war (that he wants them to win).


It's like your average slavic nationalist Ukrainian soldier isn't a fucking LGBTQ+++ trans womyxn like the left-leaning western media and schizoid Russian media wants you to believe...

No, they aren't. I'm not saying they aren't there. I am sure there are some PR moments. Especially when it comes to appealing the West and it's political establishments love for SJW faggot tranny and lesbian causes. All the Ukrainians have to do is appeal to that to keep the supply of weapons going. Kind of like how the vatniggers Chinaboos and Russiaboos keep saying the US military is full of trannies. When there aren't enough trannies in existence to fill the US militaries demand for people. Even less if you start breaking it down to trannies who would actually want to and be capable of the job. The US military is mostly straight white males. Most of the Ukrainian's fighting are straight white males. So, they are going to call each other faggots. Since Ukrainian and Russian is close enough that they can speak to each other they will also call each other faggots. Probably a lot of other insults as well. Even though they probably never hear it.

They replacing faggots with Orcs because YouTube is censorship happy. Also the term orcs has become this cringey thing online where all the normie fags that put Ukraine flags in their avatars and go around saying "slava Ukraini" everywhere refer to the Russians as orcs. I see it all the time. Especially on YouTube videos and on the few reddit posts I have seen about the war. Russians are orcs. I think it's some kind of LOTR reference or a Warhammer 40,000 reference. Though I doubt the normies who use it know the source of it. They just repeat it. But there has to be a source.

Remember last year when Eastern European Countries were making noises about just sending all the MIG's they had sitting in mothballs to Ukraine?

Yeah, about that. All of those fighter aircraft are in Ukraine now. They have also been given NATO Standard Joint Direct Attack Munitions to use.

Why have you not seen them in action yet? Why haven't you seen Bradleys Seal Clubbing T72s yet! There is a reason Prigozhin has started publicly begging Putin to do something to end the war. He's on the front so he knows something does not add up. We have all these pictures of Avenger AAM systems, Bradleys with the Ukraine Cross on them, Leapords, dozens of MIGs transferred from former Warsaw Pact NATO states and despite the brutality of the fighting around Bakhmut...nothing. Not a one. No Leapords, No MIGs. No Avengers. No Bradleys. Why.

The Why is very important because its obvious Ukraine has all this shit now. But they are not using it. Yet. The Yet is the critical component here. And the Yet is the G Spot in the Asshole the Russian Military has stuck its head so far up.

The conspiratorial side of me says it could also be just one big psy-op to fuck with the Russians and force them into giving up. Though that's not likely. I am sure they will use it when they are ready. When the Russians least expect it.

TBF they are probably still training on all that new shit...

This is also another possibility. They are still training on the Western vehicles.

 

[mindlessobserver]

I have a feeling that Ukraine command would like to do similar again, but I don't think the political climate will allow them to sit on their toys that long.

Ukraine Command knows they can win because Russia will break before Ukraine breaks. the problem for Ukraine however is they need uninvolved countries to pay their soldiers salaries, rebuild their electrical infrastructure, and provide the ammunition. Which means Ukraine's political considerations are subservient to their benefactors conditions. And their benefactors demand results. Ukraine has to deliver, so time is not on Ukraine's side in this respect.

Disagree but not strongly; they'll know the basics of tanking, yes, but you need to train them on the new platform and get them used to it. Better than raw recruits. Someone in either this thread or the old thread had guys training on Leopards saying how easy it was to pick up the controls. There was also a crew of... I think it was a Krab, some mobile artillery, saying roughly the same.

This is the point. Those Leopards and Bradley's don't need to last for the next 20 years. They need to last for the next 6 months. Ukraine needs to break the Zaporizhian Line and drive for Simferopol before Russia can respond. Ukraine can leave every single one of these platforms on the side of the road, provided the Blue and Yellow is run up the flagpole once more at the Ukrainian Army Barracks at Pervalne.

2023 is for all the marbles and everyone knows it. Including the Russians so lets not be cocky. The problem for them though is reading the cope thread they have absolutely no idea what is coming. The idea of a drone swarm running in advance to destroy SAM Radar positions, followed by 50 MIG Fighter-Bombers launching NATO Standard JDAM's at Command Posts and then a full on mechanized assault of Leopard Tanks, Bradley IFVs and 50,000 dismounted infantry is alien to them. All Open Source information on the status of the UAF says they are capable of all of this in the coming weeks and Russian Media/Milbloggers and the Cope thread are obsessing over who is in control of the Bakhmut Train Station this morning.

The Russian Side has lost the plot. They are fucking fucked bros.

 

[Snekposter]

TBF they are probably still training on all that new shit...

They are. And do you know why they're doing that? During WW2 the Germans were taking something like 90% of their casualties on the Eastern Front. And then in June of 1944 that dropped to 62%. Right after the landings the USA deployed a bunch of reserve divisions we had spent the past two years training up and by the end of August we were holding a victory march to celebrate the liberation of Paris, Oberkommando West having effectively ceased to exist with what few forces that managed to escape the Falaise Pocket retreating across the Seine.

Most of the training for any shit is practical application with a few weeks in literal application. A T72 crew with combat experience can be handed an M1A2 Abrams and trained on how to use it in a couple weeks. Ditto for a BMP Crew on a Bradley. The Fiddley Bits for maintenance may take longer, but that can be learned over time.

I got neg rated to oblivion for pointing this out in the last thread but it is true and fuck the vatniks. You can give a Ukrainian BMP crew a Bradley IFV and you have not given them a piece of space alien technology beyond their comprehension. You have given them a weapon system that does what the BMP lied about saying it can do. The only training required is showing them which button does what and convincing them that those buttons actually do what the manual says they do.

Even if they can grasp the controls (and I'm sure they can), Bradleys and Abrams (Abramses?) can do things the BMP and T-72 can only dream of doing, and so the crews need to be trained in how to use those new capabilities, because using an Abrams in combat like its a T-72 will give you performance that's not much better than a T-72. An Abrams crew is not just capable of but expected to put a round on target every six seconds while racing across uneven terrain at 30 miles an hour. A T-72 would probably be lucky to hit 30 miles an hour on rough ground, never mind the gun's stability at that point and the fact the autoloader takes ten seconds to load a round.

 

[mindlessobserver]

 

[draggs]

While everyone is looking for the hohol counterattack in the east

Romania is ripe for the plucking

 

[BULLY HUNTER_78]

2023 is for all the marbles and everyone knows it. Including the Russians so lets not be cocky. The problem for them though is reading the cope thread they have absolutely no idea what is coming. The idea of a drone swarm running in advance to destroy SAM Radar positions, followed by 50 MIG Fighter-Bombers launching NATO Standard JDAM's at Command Posts and then a full on mechanized assault of Leopard Tanks, Bradley IFVs and 50,000 dismounted infantry is alien to them. All Open Source information on the status of the UAF says they are capable of all of this in the coming weeks and Russian Media/Milbloggers and the Cope thread are obsessing over who is in control of the Bakhmut Train Station this morning.

Okay, but what happens if the year ends and the maps all still look roughly the same? As far as I can tell, there hasn't been a clear winner in this slugging match - the lines have stayed roughly the same for a long time, haven't they? The only major development I can think of is Russia recently took a city, right? At the current rate of advance, they'll have probably have Kiev secured by 2030.

What makes 2023 "for all the marbles"? I can see this war dragging out for years. Why does Ukraine need to win a counter-offensive now, rather than in 2024 or 2025?

 

[Snekposter]

While everyone is looking for the hohol counterattack in the east

Romania is ripe for the plucking

You say that, but in reality we'd be seeing armored vehicles up on blocks in less than 24 hours. After 24 hours we'd be seeing ads for lightly used tank guns and FCS components on Craigslist. Igor the Farmer has nothing on Ion the Thief.

Also, the Russians have seriously dropped the ball on their maskirovka.
https://twitter.com/lavrovskyi/status/1648784363503452161
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/93xC7

I guess the NATO soldiers are using Russian accents to disguise themselves as Russians?

 

[mindlessobserver]

Okay, but what happens if the year ends and the maps all still look roughly the same? As far as I can tell, there hasn't been a clear winner in this slugging match - the lines have stayed roughly the same for a long time, haven't they? The only major development I can think of is Russia recently took a city, right? At the current rate of advance, they'll have probably have Kiev secured by 2030.

What makes 2023 "for all the marbles"? I can see this war dragging out for years. Why does Ukraine need to win a counter-offensive now, rather than in 2024 or 2025?

Because at a Fundamental Level the USA does not want to contemplate the need for crossing the Bering straight and establishing peace and order under the Star Spangled Banner for Kamchatka and Irkutsk. Before the Chinese do it instead.

The biggest cope the Russian side has is the USA and Globohomo does not want Russia to remain a great power. Furthest from the truth. The USA would love for nothing more then Russia remaining a thing. The Prison of Nations keeps its iron grip from the Caucauses to the Pacific and denies the real threat, the Chinese Communist Party, access to the untrammeled wilderness of East Asia. An untrammeled Wilderness the Chinese with zero irony claim is their's, Russia be damned.

Make no mistake, the one thing that will bring the USA and China to War is not Taiwan. Its China attempting to seize the Russian Far East. That is something the USA will never allow and would without irony use US based nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory in such a scenario.

So US Policy is schizoprhenic, and has been for the last 30 years. On the one hand we want a strong Russia. Because a Strong Russia means China can't realize its manifest destiny of restoring the Qing Dynasty and pushing the international maritime borders of the USA and China to the point US Border Patrol will be forced to put a USA-China customs post on the western frontier. The Myopic idiots in the Cope thread seem to assume the USA views east Asia as a colonial exercise. It HAS TO BE POINTED OUT. US Citizens, with US passports, live within 100 kilometers of the border with the Russian Federation. The USA in fact has a larger international border with the Russian Federation then Ukraine does! Russian Citizens, if the weather is right, can see the Star Spangled Banner flying from their backyard, just as US Citizens, if the weather is right, can see the Russian Tricolor. SNL has a lot to answer for, by making this a joke, but the joke is dead serious. What happens in the Russian Federation immediately effects the USA because the USA shares a 1,000 kilometer border with the Russian Federation.

Everyone, EVERYONE seems to forget this. East Asia is not a colonial exercise for the USA. During World War 2, the sovereign territory of a US Territory, soon to be a US State, was in fact occupied by an enemy, the Only Part of a US Territory to ever be fought over during World War 2. Where enemy soldiers occupied the land and the USA sent its Army to eject by force and violence the invaders who seized the land. The USA paid in blood to defend its Asian borders.

Aleutian Islands campaign - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I know I am beating the dead horse here, but it needs to be brought up because it seems to be forgotten. The US-Russia Border is usually relegated to the accidents of history trivia pile, but the considerations behind it are deadly serious. So deadly in fact a thousand US Soldiers died not more then 80 years ago, and thousands more were wounded, to make sure that border stood. You can probably still interview men alive right now who watched a comrade take a bullet to the face on the United States of America-Russian Federation Border.

 

[Ghostse]

Ukraine Command knows they can win because Russia will break before Ukraine breaks. the problem for Ukraine however is they need uninvolved countries to pay their soldiers salaries, rebuild their electrical infrastructure, and provide the ammunition. Which means Ukraine's political considerations are subservient to their benefactors conditions. And their benefactors demand results. Ukraine has to deliver, so time is not on Ukraine's side in this respect.

First part is really optimistic. Russia has 4x ukraine's population. They can keep this up for a long time, and slowly take Ukraine. That "50 years to Kiev" is a viable option for Russian ambitions.

The second part - solid agree. They need to demonstrate they can win, that they can do something with all that they've been given besides just hold the line and wait for sanctions.

This is the point. Those Leopards and Bradley's don't need to last for the next 20 years. They need to last for the next 6 months. Ukraine needs to break the Zaporizhian Line and drive for Simferopol before Russia can respond. Ukraine can leave every single one of these platforms on the side of the road, provided the Blue and Yellow is run up the flagpole once more at the Ukrainian Army Barracks at Pervalne.

IF you don't have a good logistics chain they won't last that.
In additon, a good salvage crew can get a tank you'd swear was scrap back on the front in two weeks or less if they have the parts. Part of the reason Desert Storm went as smoothly as it did for the allies was Iraq was on constant retreat with no opportunity to recover and rehabilitate their armor.

And that's questionable about how long they need to last; while there's a good stock of mothball armor, Lima hasn't gone over to three-shifts yet. Rhinemetal isn't opening the throttle at their factories (carbon footprint you know). France hasn't restarted LeClerc production (they haven't even meaningfully accelerated their upgrade package timeline). South Korea is still just shipping 155.

While the Leopard II lines are going, and Lima never ever really stopped, its going to take years to ramp up production enough to burn Russia's cold war surplus. France's lines have been completely dormant for a decade and a half, and its questionable if they even COULD restart them let alone how long. And while we can all agree 1500 new tanks is some wild cope only a fucking retard would believe, Russia is producing a not-insignficant number of new T-72s and T-90s, likely as fast as they can manage while being completely starved of any external parts.

Even if they can grasp the controls (and I'm sure they can), Bradleys and Abrams (Abramses?) can do things the BMP and T-72 can only dream of doing, and so the crews need to be trained in how to use those new capabilities, because using an Abrams in combat like its a T-72 will give you performance that's not much better than a T-72. An Abrams crew is not just capable of but expected to put a round on target every six seconds while racing across uneven terrain at 30 miles an hour. A T-72 would probably be lucky to hit 30 miles an hour on rough ground, never mind the gun's stability at that point and the fact the autoloader takes ten seconds to load a round.

This a great stating of what I forgot to expand on in my post:
Just because they can drive and shoot with Leopard/Abrams or a BMP crew can start a Bradley doesn't mean they can use the platform to its full effectiveness, and that is something they will need to do given Russia's weight in numbers. Yes, Ruski equipment is garbage with garbage crews but they have a lot of it.

I can see this war dragging out for years. Why does Ukraine need to win a counter-offensive now, rather than in 2024 or 2025?

I agree with you about the war dragging on, but if Zelensky really wants pre-2014 borders he's going to need to really churn some ground to show they're worth the continued investment. The Eurocuck politicians aren't going to stand behind him forever - Ukraine was so so lucky 2022 was a mild winter. They had some bigly gains at the end of the year, but ever since its been Russian missles hitting civilian infrastructure and RUSSIA TOOK ANOTHER HALF YARD OF BAHKMUT! TWO MORE WEEKS HOHOLS! which while these actions aren't very effective tactically or strategically, they don't paint a very rosy picture - "Why should we send equipment/money to Ukraine if they are just slowly losing ground? They should really make a deal and end the fighting". And that's to say nothing of the domestic audience.

I wouldn't say its for all the marbles, but if there is no "sellable" success in 2023 is going to put Ukraine in a bad spot and make them look like another wasteful endeavor.

So this theory is bad. For a number of reasons.

Its not a theory. Its cope; "Here is how Hilary Putin can still win"
Might as well speculate what if Zelensky and Putin are really using the war to distract from Iranian research that will make anime real.

 

[freight]

ufo crashed into ukraine very scary

 

[Racist Trash]

You say that, but in reality we'd be seeing armored vehicles up on blocks in less than 24 hours. After 24 hours we'd be seeing ads for lightly used tank guns and FCS components on Craigslist. Igor the Farmer has nothing on Ion the Thief.

Also, the Russians have seriously dropped the ball on their maskirovka.
https://twitter.com/lavrovskyi/status/1648784363503452161
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/93xC7

I guess the NATO soldiers are using Russian accents to disguise themselves as Russians?

"damn those bastards I kill them" says someone from the room.

 

[siegemeister675]

ufo crashed into ukraine very scary

?

 

[freight]

?

on eastern euro telegram theres been debate over what this very scary object is

some have claimed downed satellite, others an asteroid, none an actual missile