Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[siegemeister675]

on eastern euro telegram theres been debate over what this very scary object is

View attachment 5071800
some have claimed downed satellite, others an asteroid, none an actual missile

Looks like an asteroid or meteor

 

[freight]

Looks like an asteroid or meteor

ur so fucking smart kikelenskyyyyyy should hire u

 

[CuzinEd]

Okay, but what happens if the year ends and the maps all still look roughly the same? As far as I can tell, there hasn't been a clear winner in this slugging match - the lines have stayed roughly the same for a long time, haven't they? The only major development I can think of is Russia recently took a city, right? At the current rate of advance, they'll have probably have Kiev secured by 2030.

What makes 2023 "for all the marbles"? I can see this war dragging out for years. Why does Ukraine need to win a counter-offensive now, rather than in 2024 or 2025?

If they don't start winning now and by winning, I mean pushing the Russians back, they might run out of time. People's interest in the war is declining. The vast majority of people are indifferent. Despite the medias push to make it seem like this is a war everyone should care about. The vast majority of the US public doesn't one way or another. It's also going to be used as politically by Trump when he runs in 2024. Having the war going and the US dumping all this money and material into the effort to help Ukraine isn't going to be popular when the economy gets worse which it likely will. Trump is not an establishment Republican, and he does things differently. He will use it against Joe Biden. Possibly whipping the population up into a frenzy over it once he starts really campaigning. They will go from being indifferent to completely against it.

If they are going to push the Russians out of Eastern Ukraine or take back Crimea, they have to do it in the next two years. What Trump does once he becomes president is another thing. He could keep supplying Ukraine with stuff reduce what they are getting or completely cut them off. If the last option happens, I don't see it working in Russia's favor. Ukraine is flooded with weapons and the worst-case scenario is it goes from being what it is now to a guerilla style insurgency. This would actually be worse for the Russians. The Russians are struggling as it is. Dragging old tanks out of storage. Tanks that are older than most of the people fighting the war by decades.

I don't think Trump will completely cut them off. Some of the weapons they were using against the Russians during the first few months the invasion were given to them by Trump. Trump told the Europeans to spend more for their own defense and the Germans laughed. But it would be Trumps second and last term. There won't be anything holding him back. He doesn't have to worry about winning another election. Just appeasing his voter base and finding someone to carry on his legacy.

The Russians might also want to get out of Ukraine before Trump becomes president again because they don't know what he will do. They waited till Biden "won" the election to do this. Then their good friends in China asked them to postpone the invasion longer so it wouldn't mess with their Olympics. The last thing the Chinese wanted was most of the world boycotting the Olympics over the invasion. The Olympics the Chinese already invested a lot of money in. This caused the Russians to launch the invasion at a really bad time of the year.

 

[freight]

If they don't start winning now and by winning, I mean pushing the Russians back, they might run out of time. People's interest in the war is declining. The vast majority of people are indifferent. Despite the medias push to make it seem like this is a war everyone should care about. The vast majority of the US public doesn't one way or another. It's also going to be used as politically by Trump when he runs in 2024. Having the war going and the US dumping all this money and material into the effort to help Ukraine isn't going to be popular when the economy gets worse which it likely will. Trump is not an establishment Republican, and he does things differently. He will use it against Joe Biden. Possibly whipping the population up into a frenzy over it once he starts really campaigning. They will go from being indifferent to completely against it.

If they are going to push the Russians out of Eastern Ukraine or take back Crimea, they have to do it in the next two years. What Trump does once he becomes president is another thing. He could keep supplying Ukraine with stuff reduce what they are getting or completely cut them off. If the last option happens, I don't see it working in Russia's favor. Ukraine is flooded with weapons and the worst-case scenario is it goes from being what it is now to a guerilla style insurgency. This would actually be worse for the Russians. The Russians are struggling as it is. Dragging old tanks out of storage. Tanks that are older than most of the people fighting the war by decades.

I don't think Trump will completely cut them off. Some of the weapons they were using against the Russians during the first few months the invasion were given to them by Trump. Trump told the Europeans to spend more for their own defense and the Germans laughed. But it would be Trumps second and last term. There won't be anything holding him back. He doesn't have to worry about winning another election. Just appeasing his voter base and finding someone to carry on his legacy.

The Russians might also want to get out of Ukraine before Trump becomes president again because they don't know what he will do. They waited till Biden "won" the election to do this. Then their good friends in China asked them to postpone the invasion longer so it wouldn't mess with their Olympics. The last thing the Chinese wanted was most of the world boycotting the Olympics over the invasion. The Olympics the Chinese already invested a lot of money in. This caused the Russians to launch the invasion at a really bad time of the year.

ok

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Ukrainian pilot talks about training on Western aircraft:

@Ghostse
Here you go, fam:

 

[Hillary Clinton's Ass]

some have claimed downed satellite, others an asteroid, none an actual missile

It was an old NASA satellite, according to the authorities in Kiev, they said so it a couple of hours ago. (Link to Tweet) (Archive)

But NASA said that it was not their satellite. (BBC Article) (Archive)

So, is it the ayyylmaos that have decided to their hat in the Slav brawl? The first stage of the merge? Place your bets!

It was most likely a meteor, it happens all the time.

 

[Snekposter]

Random fact: one of the guys who did the GuP anime is a Kelly's Heroes fan since there's a scene in one of the final episodes where the girls have it for movie night.

 

[freight]

It was an old NASA satellite, according to the authorities in Kiev, they said so it a couple of hours ago. (Link to Tweet) (Archive)

But NASA said that it was not their satellite. (BBC Article) (Archive)

So, is it the ayyylmaos that have decided to their hat in the Slav brawl? The first stage of the merge? Place your bets!

It was most likely a meteor, it happens all the time.

no, it's not, the nasa satalliete isnt at the trajectory theyre claiming

nowhere near kyiv

 

[Uranus Pink]

Random fact: one of the guys who did the GuP anime is a Kelly's Heroes fan since there's a scene in one of the final episodes where the girls have it for movie night.

It is much more that that as Yukari Akiyama name herself Oddball when she got outed when spying on Sanders Tankery team. Later the 1st Years were shown watching Kelly's Heroes. GuP movie had the 1st Years watching 1942 which also had part of a scene animated.
GuP's Kelly's Heroes scenes

Spoiler

Haven't found the GuP's 1942 scene.

 

[Ghostse]

no, it's not, the nasa satalliete isnt at the trajectory theyre claiming

nowhere near kyiv
View attachment 5071886

Mars has always been a part of Russia.

 

[CuzinEd]

I was watching this video. This guy says the war has turned into this slow moving trench warfare shit because of the way the Russians and Ukrainians fight. The Russians don't want to fight. When they come up against resistance they run away and call in artillery and airpower. The Ukrainians don't know how to fight the right way or something, so they don't like to push and be real aggressive. I can understand the Ukrainians not doing that because they don't have the kind of support the US military does. They don't have a lot to work with.

I just found it to be an interesting take on the situation from a foreign (American) volunteer who used to be in the US military. They are used to fighting a certain way. They are also used to have a fully functional military and all the infrastructure that comes with it to back them up.

Just a warning it's 7 months old.

 

[Beebo]

If they don't start winning now and by winning, I mean pushing the Russians back, they might run out of time. People's interest in the war is declining. The vast majority of people are indifferent.

Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were absolutely loathed by a big chunk of the US voter base, yet it took decades to get out of there. US is perfectly capable of supporting unpopular wars if it makes strategic sense.
Sure, populists will use money sent there as issues in their campaigns, but i seriously doubt it will become a major enough of an issue for your average Murrican to get mad enough to change outcomes elections, as long as it's just money being burnt and not US troops. US burns all kinds of money on all kinds of things, and supporting Ukraine is actually a bargain, as US can just use some small fraction of its defense budget to completely neutralize one of its two major global opponents. Supporting Ukraine is absolutely vital for US's global strategy, as weakening Russia will allow it to focus solely on China.

Unless US just gives up on the idea of being the sole superpower(lol), no one's gonna let Ukraine lose.
Aid might be kept in this drip-fed state to promote a forever war to maximize damage on Russia, but at this point allowing Russia to come out of this with a win is just not even on the table anymore. Russia has shown too much weakness for this opportunity to not be exploited to its fullest.

US if anyone knows how much it sucks balls to be stuck in forever wars against some backwater countries that are being supported by your global rivals. I bet there are a lot of people in US government/Pentagon who are absolutely giddy about the prospect of this time being on the other side of such a proxy conflict, and have a lot of ideas about how to maximize the damage such protracted conflicts can have on the invader.

What Trump does once he becomes president is another thing.

I wouldn't take Trump's victory as a foregone conclusion. I in fact believe it to be exceedingly unlikely at this point.
He just doesn't have the same hype and energy as he did in 2016. These days he just comes off as a whiny loser. Of course Trump still has his fans, but to win he needs the normies, and the normies just don't see Biden as this colossal fuck-up as the die-hard Trumpers do. Covid is already old news and the economy didn't collapse either, so Biden got through all of those relatively unscathed in the end. Life has gone back to its usual slow incremental decline that everyone is already used to, which doesn't really affect election outcomes that much.
I just don't see this massive surge of support building around Trump. People just don't care about him as much anymore.

Even if we assume that Trump-train is unstoppable and it's 2016 part 2 where he rises from the ashes, we have to remember that Trump didn't get out of the middle east despite campaigning on it. During his term he actually ordered a Syrian base to be tomahawk'd which housed Russian troops, which was something Obama never had the balls to do. Trump is no peace dove.
But this time surely he will just drop everything and become isolationist? Nah. There's no 3D chess, there's no plan. This is just who he is.

 

[Snekposter]

War in Iraq and Afghanistan was absolutely loathed by a big chunk of the US voter base, yet it took decades to get out of there. US is perfectly capable of supporting unpopular wars if it makes strategic sense.
Sure, populists will use money sent there in their campaigns, but i seriously doubt it will become a major enough of an issue for your average Murrican to care enough to win/lose elections over as long as it's just money being burnt and not US troops. US burns all kinds of money on all kinds of things, and supporting Ukraine is actually a bargain, as US can just use some small fraction of its defense budget to completely neutralize one of its two major global opponents. Supporting Ukraine is absolutely vital for US's global strategy, as weakening Russia will allow it to focus solely on China.

The US military budget in 2021 was 742 billion. With a B. Ukraine's 2022 GDP was 151 billion. Russia's GDP was 2.1 trillion... or half of what Uncle Sam brought in for federal revenues in 2021. Yes, that's right, Uncle Sam alone is richer than the entire nation of Russia. The USA could spend a tenth of its 742 billion funding Ukraine and that 74.2 billion would equal roughly 3.5% of Russia's GDP. As any of you can probably imagine funding Ukraine is not going to do any more damage to the USA's financial well-being than anything else Uncle Sam is doing with our tax dollars, not when we're paying more than the entire GDP of Romania just to service the preexisting debt.

Even if we assume that Trump-train is unstoppable and it's 2016 part 2 where he rises from the ashes, we have to remember that Trump didn't get out of the middle east despite campaigning on it. During his term he actually ordered a Syrian base to be tomahawk'd which housed Russian troops.
But this time surely he will just drop everything and become isolationist? Nah. There's no 3D chess, there's no plan. That's just who he is

He wanted us out, but done in such a way nobody would accuse us of leaving with our tails between our legs. Remember, in 2020 you had officers boasting of how they were lying to him and fudging numbers on sheets to make it look like they were following orders. Its clear he could give orders but everyone would make sure they were never carried out. The civil and military services did what they pleased in what would be a shocking display of disobedience of elected authority if not for the fact the rest of the world disliked Trump choosing to exert his.

Of course they now have to deal with Biden, who is even less in charge than Trump, and the rest of us in the USA are stuck with the consequences of that.

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

I was watching this video. This guy says the war has turned into this slow moving trench warfare shit because of the way the Russians and Ukrainians fight. The Russians don't want to fight. When they come up against resistance they run away and call in artillery and airpower. The Ukrainians don't know how to fight the right way or something, so they don't like to push and be real aggressive. I can understand the Ukrainians not doing that because they don't have the kind of support the US military does. They don't have a lot to work with.

I just found it to be an interesting take on the situation from a foreign (American) volunteer who used to be in the US military. They are used to fighting a certain way. They are also used to have a fully functional military and all the infrastructure that comes with it to back them up.

Just a warning it's 7 months old.

Kind of interesting video. Nothing super revealing but a few interesting points.

He notes that in his experience with a small team that the Russians he encounters will flee rather than engage in a stand-up fight and just lob bombs into civilian areas. Sort of an 'if we can't have it, nobody can' attitude. When surrounded, Russians are pretty quick to surrender; he compares Russians unfavorably with ISIS as far as willingness to fight in a tough spot.

He says the Russians definitely hit civilian areas on purpose that have no military value, that they 'don't value life as much as people think', that they regularly leave their wounded to bleed out rather than make any attempts at recovery. He has some empathy for the Russians that were forced to go there, but 'fuck the guys who rape women and murder children' although he thinks that is not as bad now as it was at the start of the war due to media coverage of atrocities.

He is frustrated with Ukrainian leadership because he wants to go and take small villages/positions with his team that he believes they have properly scoped out, but he thinks the leadership is more interested in big 'glory' missions rather than smaller missions. He says this ends up with people just sitting around doing nothing but lobbing bombs at each other rather than keeping up some kind of momentum.

He notes that pro-Russian civilians in the south and east are problematic because they will report on their movements, which is one reason why he tries to avoid civilian areas. He also thinks that the Ukrainian military has leakers that alerted Russians to where his team has planned assaults on several occasions.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

I was watching this video. This guy says the war has turned into this slow moving trench warfare shit because of the way the Russians and Ukrainians fight. The Russians don't want to fight. When they come up against resistance they run away and call in artillery and airpower. The Ukrainians don't know how to fight the right way or something, so they don't like to push and be real aggressive. I can understand the Ukrainians not doing that because they don't have the kind of support the US military does. They don't have a lot to work with.

I just found it to be an interesting take on the situation from a foreign (American) volunteer who used to be in the US military. They are used to fighting a certain way. They are also used to have a fully functional military and all the infrastructure that comes with it to back them up.

Just a warning it's 7 months old.

He's right about Ukrainian commands not wanting to send volunteers to assault & hold positions, but I don't think the reasons are entirely as he describes; as his experience is limited to that slice of his AO. Even in the US where uniformity is supposedly mandatory, no two units are ever treated the same by their commands; while separate commands can operate/feel like an entirely different military/country.

Volunteer soldiers (at least effective ones) are particularly valuable to Ukraine for a lot of reasons, and they know every one that dies downrange will be up front in their home nation's media. And if volunteers start dying in pointless assaults, it'll be used by politicians to impede/restrict aid, or provide material for Russian propaganda.

Ukraine also has dedicated storm brigades, and they have a playbook written on an upcoming counteroffensive; now AFU knows what they want to take and how/when, so that'd be another reason why they'd be reluctant to take back some towns which would be easy pickings. Just because you can, doesn't mean you should, and he wouldn't have known if the Russians were really running, or trying to bait them into being over-extended & surrounded; which is what the Russians have been trying to do (especially with foreign volunteer troops), except Ukrops haven't fallen for it.

Then the first counteroffensive after Kyiv to Kharkiv wasn't planned so much; it carried on momentum, different branches/commands hadn't really integrated yet, and some units operated with sub-optimal local commanders. But the drive to Kherson was when things really started changing, and the AFU command structure became more unified. I just wonder what he'd say now.

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

NATO Secretary General making a pretty strong statement of support today.

"Let me be clear: Ukraine’s rightful place is in the Euro-Atlantic family. Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO. And over time, our support will help you to make this possible" - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg

Source tweet
Archive

 

[mindlessobserver]

Remember Feline wishing for the FSB to visit our resident Russians?

Three St. Louis residents indicted on charges of illegally pushing pro-Russian propaganda

Federal officials have charged three St. Louis residents with illegally pushing pro-Russian propaganda and sowing discord across Missouri and Florida through the African People’s Socialist Party.

news.stlpublicradio.org

 

[AgendaPoster]

Would it add up if you assumed that Zelensky sold out to China to drag out this war, get as much money and weapons from NATO countries as possible, and distract America while China goes around convincing countries to give up the dollar?

Why are you people so 4channed to the brain?
It's not even remotely about one person or his regime. It's about a whole country which is partially occupied and invaded by a much larger proto-imperial one.
Zelensky might be a decent enabler of more US aid, he's photogenic and Jewish and he showed some unexpected bravery by not fleeing, but even with him gone, the war will not end. Even if Ukraine runs out of weapons, it will simply become a partisan "freedom fighting" subdued conflict, like Afghanistan was, or similar to how Kurds wage war on the countries that will not given them their desired autonomy.
PS: learn to see the big picture, the individuals are nearly worthless

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Remember Feline wishing for the FSB to visit our resident Russians?

Three St. Louis residents indicted on charges of illegally pushing pro-Russian propaganda

Federal officials have charged three St. Louis residents with illegally pushing pro-Russian propaganda and sowing discord across Missouri and Florida through the African People’s Socialist Party.

news.stlpublicradio.org

FYI here's the DOJ release, which goes into detail; the persons charged are alleged Russian FSB agents who didn't register as such; the US citizens appear to be naturalized citizens.

U.S. Citizens and Russian Intelligence Officers Charged with Conspiring to Use U.S. Citizens as Illegal Agents of the Russian Government

A federal grand jury in Tampa, Florida, returned a superseding indictment charging four U.S. citizens and three Russian nationals with working on behalf of the Russian government and in conjunction with the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to conduct a multi-year foreign malign influence...

www.justice.gov

You should know better than to fall for clickbait.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Russians are being issued instructions on how to destroy an Abrams.

It's the same graphic I've seen posted elsewhere across Russian channels; but that's some optimistic shit right there, especially if this guy can't do it with his aircraft. But I wonder what he's sitting in; it's fairly modern & not a hideous color; so I'm guessing a Ka-50, or maybe a Mi-28.