Are you saying the only thing between the UAF in Kherson and the Isthmus of Perekop is a national guard brigade and a motor rifle brigade that was put on reserve duty due to high casualties?
I guess Russia is hoping the Dnieper Wall can keep the Ukrainians out. Yes, I barely managed to keep from laughing considering big the actual frontage at Kherson is. This is why I was thinking they could pull off a leg infantry landing to the North to get a beachhead, and if there's no/little resistance, start barging over Jeeps and the like. Can go full Toyota War on the Russian forces in Kherson or maneuver to support a push from Zaporizhia. Dangerous and near-suicidal either way if things go tits up, but that's what the Azov guys volunteered for.
@Corporate Gigachad has the situation pretty well covered : yes, its a bunch of wrekt mobiks, but they are doing the defending and they have have defenses in depth. Those mobliks, with multiple rows of defenses to retreat to, don't need to win they just need to hold out for the main group to head west into the Ukrainian flank, and have quite a bit of ground over which to do that.
Addtionally, the further they do from Kherson city, the further they are from Anti-Air and the closer they are to Russian airstrikes. They are also further from Neptunes to the point the BSF might get an opportunity to do something this war besides turn into artificial reefs. Even if their landing ships couldn't land or evacuate troops, they do have ground attack missiles.
The risk is you cross the Dnieper, and push the Russian forces back to the isthmus... and then you get bodied from the east by a bunch of armor, with their back to the sea. Its like what we're hoping happens with an attack on Melitopol, only in reverse. And its worse because Russia has nominal control of the seas.
If you are Ukraine and don't want that to happen, you would need to blitz so hard those Mobiks can't respond fast enough. You probably need to take the main Crimean airfield too. You'd also need to set up multiple hardened bridges, enough you can keep feeding bullets and bodies into the fray to hold out, and Russia can't just cut your lines via missile.
Also don't forget Russia also has some Guide-Missile submarines in the Black Sea, we just haven't seen them do anything yet. And again, a mechanized push into Kherson Oblast with targetable bridges is the sort of thing that would get those subs to blow their load.
Regarding barging armor over, I don't believe there is any significant shipping left afloat on the river.
Maybe this is level 100 retard but if I was in Putin's position I think Id keep as few "regular" units on the line and put as much responsibility on wager. Let Ukraine push back and bleed them in the process but make it look like Ukraine is doing fine and doesn't need increased amount of aid. Allow wager to take the fall for the slowed progress then wait for the winter when odds are the westerners will have some other manufactured crisis they will have to deal with and then bring in the trained Siberian troops and shell the hell out of the overextended and exhausted Ukrainians and cut them off at the knees.
This gives Wagner political clout and makes the Chef a potent political oponent, in addition to the other issues mentioned.
