Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Ghostse]

He literally demanded they let him go in, and when he saw it he accused them of putting him on and it took a while of people saying "lol no this is actually kinda a shitty place by our standards" till he believed them. I think he still went to another place at his next stop on the tour. Also he was legit mesmerized by pudding pops or jello or some shit like that, some utter trash dessert novelty product that was nothing to everyone there but him.

Also all the meat and bread and fish and dairy and vegetables and fruit. Just everything a person could want, and we throw most of it away because we have so much that no one could possibly go through it all. This is what killed the USSR, not nukes or jets or any of Kissinger's black magic rituals, just sheer inconceivable abundance to the point where our poorest are our fattest.

From "MiG Pilot: The final escape of Lt. Viktor Belenko"

They stopped at a shopping center on the outskirts of a small Virginia town and headed toward a clothing store, but Belenko insisted on inspecting a supermarket on the way. He noticed
first the smell, or rather, the absence of smell. Then he explored and stared in ever-widening wonder. Mountains of fruit and fresh vegetables; a long bin of sausages, frankfurters, wursts, salami, bologna, cold cuts; an equally long shelf of cheeses, thirty or forty different varieties; milk, butter, eggs, more than he had ever seen in any one place; the meat counter, at least twenty meters long, with virtually every kind of meat in the world —wrapped so you could take it in your hands, examine, and choose or not; labeled and graded as to quality. A date stamped on the package to warn when it would begin to spoil! And hams and chickens and turkeys! Cans and packages of almost everything edible with pictures showing their contents and labels reciting their contents. Long aisles of frozen foods, again with pictures on the packages. And juices, every kind of juice. Soaps and paper products and toiletries and much else that he did not recognize. Beer! American, German, Dutch. Danish, Australian, Mexican, Canadian beer; all cold. How many times had he thought and even urged during seminars with the political officers that people be offered low-alcohol beer instead of vodka? Nobody doled any of this out. You picked it out for yourself and put it in fancy, clear little bags and then in a big, expensive cart. It was all just there for anybody to take.


Turning into an aisle lined on one side with candies, confections, and nuts and on the other with cookies, crackers, and cakes, he saw another "nigger," who cheerfully bade him "Good morning." (There was no gainsaying it; the "nigger" was a handsome fellow except for his color, he did not look like a slave, and he was dressed in the same clean light-blue uniforms the other store workers wore.)


Never had Belenko been in a closed market selling meat or produce that did not smell of spoilage, of unwashed bins and counters, of decaying, unswept remnants of food. Never had he been in a market offering anything desirable that was not crowded inside, with lines waiting outside. Always he had been told that the masses of exploited Americans lived in the shadow of hunger and that pockets of near starvation were widespread, and he had seen photographs that seemed to demonstrate that. If this were a real store, a woman in less than an hour could buy enough food in just this one place to feed a whole family for two weeks. But where are the people, the crowds, the lines? Ah, that proves it. This is not a real store. The people can't afford it. If they could, everybody would be here. It's a showplace of the Dark Forces. But what do they do with all the meat, fruit and vegetables, milk, and everything else that they can't keep here all the time? They must take it away for themselves every few nights and replace it.


As Peter and Nick steered him back toward the clothing store, Belenko bolted into a shop offering televisions, stereos, radios, and calculators. Several color television sets were tuned to different channels, and the brilliance and clarity of the hues as well as the diversity of the programs amazed him. So did a hand-held calculator and the technology it implied. But he was not fooled. A color television set in the Soviet Union cost a worker approximately five months' wages, and because of difficulties with transistors and solid-state circuitry, the quality was poor. Obviously this was another showplace of the Dark Forces packed with merchandise affordable only by the exceedingly rich.


He had to appraise the clothing store only a minute or so to realize that it also was a fake. Here were perhaps 300 suits, along with sports jackets, overcoats, raincoats hanging openly on racks, piles of trousers and shirts lying openly on counters, ties within the reach of anybody passing; even the shoes were out in the open—and all this was guarded by only a few clerks. Peter found a section containing perhaps twenty-five suits Belenko's size and started taking them from the rack for him to examine. They know him here, and that's why he can do that.


A toothy, glad-handing salesman approached and among other banalities remarked, "It always makes me glad to see a father buying suits for his sons." Belenko thought that whether planned or spontaneous, the comment, which Nick translated in a whisper, was hilarious, and thereafter Peter was known as Father Peter.


The three-piece flannel suit he selected at the advice of Peter required slight alterations, and the salesman suggested they could be made within half an hour if they had other shopping. More evidence. Who else but the Dark Forces could command such service? They purchased shirts, ties, underwear, socks, a warm-up suit and tennis shoes for jogging, a blazer, a raincoat
with zip-out lining, and the finest pair of shoes Belenko had ever seen.

All of Belenko's suspicions about the true nature of the shopping center were fully and finally validated when he saw a service station on the corner. Three cars, all, as it happened, driven by women, were being fueled at the same time, a boy was cleaning the windshield of one car, and there were no lines. In Belenko's past life, gasoline outlets were so scarce that a wait of four or five hours for fuel was ordinary.

"I congratulate you," Belenko said en route back to the mansion. "That was a spectacular show you put on for me."

"What do you mean?"

"I mean that place; it's like one of our show kol/khozes where we take foreigners."

Nick laughed, but not Peter. "Viktor, I give you my word that what you've just seen is a common, typical shopping center. There are tens of thousands of them all over America. Anywhere you go in the United States, north, south, east, west, you will see pretty much the same. Many of the shopping centers in the suburbs of our cities are bigger and fancier and nicer."

 

[Beebo]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1651299894206820353

The Skynex short range air defense system is already on combat duty in Ukraine, Prime Minister Shmyhal reports. The system is capable of destroying swarms of drones, as well as planes and cruise missiles.

So if this tweet is to be believed, Ukraine has received some Skynex systems.
Rheinmetall wants to field test its top of the line stuff, eh?
At least in Ukraine there won't be any shortage of drones to shoot at, and i suspect weapons like this will be in demand for years to come.

 

[Akran]

From what I understand Russia has a few issues including, branches and units wanting some unicorn gear to distinguish themselves from their peers, several manufacturers that need to stay open to provide jobs getting simultaneous contracts and tons of legacy shit from the 1990s being issued due to mass theft hitting the more modern gear. There's already plenty of memes of cosplayers and milsim airsoft kids buying gear by the pallet due to it being cheaper to buy legit stolen Russian gear than reproduction gear for several years.

I can get wanting to be distinguished, but doing so with older gear? I'll be honest I only have experience with 6B23 and 6B45. I'll take 6B45 any day of the week, 6B23 covers too much of my shoulder to get a comfortable position of the rifle butt to rest on. 6B45 has these little foam cylinders which are meh but work as intended once you get used to the feeling of it. I'll have my hands on 6B12 in a few months but it is such an odd choice. Again it's flora camo, not the digital EMR that 6B13 is. It uses odd titanium plates that are specific to the vest. In fact most of their plates are specific to the vest, 6B45 granite plates are the most versatile because it's similar to SAPI. SAPI can fit in 6B23 but it's not perfect and uncomfortable. I dunno maybe I'm over thinking it but its just weird

 

[Ghostse]

I can get wanting to be distinguished, but doing so with older gear?

The older gear is often just what you have available. This isn't just Russia, though it being Russia is undoubtedly making the situation worse. In 2003 Iraq some of the reserve units had Vietnam era flak jackets in Vietnam patterns. More shooty units got acquisition priority and it took a while for inventory to get handed down.
Some guys I knew nearly to the end who weren't expected to leave the base got flak jackets as bunker-gear, even though most anyone holding a gun for a job was getting standardized carriers/plates.

I'm not an armor sperg so I can't speak to the specifics, but its just another case of Russia logistics being shit and really not being ready for just how big of an undertaking this was going to be.

 

[mindlessobserver]

This is an issue with the Chinese Dong Feng-11 ICBM as well. At the moment the Chinese nuclear arsenal is a joke compared to the US.

The Chinese however aren't too worried about getting into a Nuclear exchange with the USA. Nuclear weapons are an albatross. They are expensive, take up alot of space in terms of resources and personnel, and just don't really provide much utility. Which is why most countries that do have them don't have a lot of them. Russia by contrast does, and its ruinously expensive. Taking up a fifth of their military budget. By comparison the US Nuclear Arsenal is around 1% of the budget. Russia did not have alot of money to play with already, and losing a fifth of that to a weapons platform you can't really use is pretty bad.

Rheinmetall wants to field test its top of the line stuff, eh?

All the Defense Corpos are sending the latest toys to Ukraine for a live fire exercise. Sweden sent that new fangled artillery piece if memory serves.

 

[draggs]

Well the US itself only has about 400 ICBMs. Multiple independent reentry warheads on em of course, but as far as plain missile numbers the ICBMs are the smallest leg of the US nuclear arsenal, submarine or ship launched missiles and bombs or missiles from planes

 

[mindlessobserver]

Well the US itself only has about 400 ICBMs. Multiple independent reentry warheads on em of course, but as far as plain missile numbers the ICBMs are the smallest leg of the US nuclear tripod, compared to the number of submarine launched missiles and bombs or missiles launched from planes

Yeah, but all of those are dual use. Our Boomers and Strategic bombers get used all the time delivering conventional death. They are simply capable of delivering nuclear death too should the need arise. That gives the platforms some utility beyond just sitting anchored in Murmansk doing fuck all except catching fire.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Some satellite imagery of Russian trenches along the Dnieper:

Spoiler: Before & After, Mariupol

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Well the US itself only has about 400 ICBMs. Multiple independent reentry warheads on em of course, but as far as plain missile numbers the ICBMs are the smallest leg of the US nuclear arsenal, submarine or ship launched missiles and bombs or missiles from planes.

Russian ICBMs carry more than just MIRVs; they pack the warhead bus with all manner of decoys, chaff, ECM, etc. They know our ABMs are accurate, so they intended on making NORAD radar scopes look like Missile Command screens at level 50+ with clouds of fake targets. I don't know as much about our own ICBMs and SLBMs, but assume they have the same type of capabilities; but which still exceed Russia's missile mojo by a healthy margin.

 

[Akran]

The older gear is often just what you have available. This isn't just Russia, though it being Russia is undoubtedly making the situation worse. In 2003 Iraq some of the reserve units had Vietnam era flak jackets in Vietnam patterns. More shooty units got acquisition priority and it took a while for inventory to get handed down.
Some guys I knew nearly to the end who weren't expected to leave the base got flak jackets as bunker-gear, even though most anyone holding a gun for a job was getting standardized carriers/plates.

I'm not an armor sperg so I can't speak to the specifics, but its just another case of Russia logistics being shit and really not being ready for just how big of an undertaking this was going to be.

If you're talking about the M69 it did its job for bunker/base duty, was it nearly 30 years old? Yeah, did it stop rifle rounds? No. It's about on par with the standard kevlar issued in every modern Russian vest (which is rated at GOST 2 btw, about on par with the M69 which performed barely better than NIJ1). I guess the armors I mentioned are only 20-23 years old but the plates spall like motherfuckers as they mainly issue steel and again ergonomics are ass.

 

[RodgerDodger]

Here's a odd question. But the insanity of the modern world knows no limits. If a NATO head of State is found to have been assassinated by Putin operatives. Or a direct attempt on their life was made, how would that impact NATO Article V? Curious minds want to know. Seeing as Erdogan seems to have suddenly and alarmingly taken ill after meeting with a Russian Representative. The word poison is being thrown around. (Sadly he does not appear to be that sick and will probably make it).

 

[CuzinEd]

View attachment 5088383
They put the SS runes so close to each other I just wrote it off as an Azov symbol. It's a cartoon, I wouldnt have expected perfect accuracy in all things (especially the whole panzer grey thing), and neither should you

EDIT:
View attachment 5088388
Yeah... that's a fucking stahlhelm alright. It even has the ventilation nubs.

It's more than just inaccuracies. That shit is intentional. They gave the Ukrainians Stahlhelms to make them look like Nazis. They even put what looks like SS runes on the side of the helmet. Though after watching the video again I started to think maybe it's some for of a Russian spastica. That's just a funny name for a Swastika that's been drawn the wrong way by retards. It's portmanteau of the words Swastika and spaz. They made the Abrams panzer grey. The color the Germans used was a very dark grey. It almost looked black. But the sun bleached it and turned that lighter grey. Like a fresh off the line Panzer IV would look almost black when the Germans still used that color. They switched to a yellow color later on. The Russians also put Balkenkreuz's on the Abrams. That would be those crosses you see on Germans use in movies and games. The most common Balkenkreuz seen is the black cross in the middle with the outer corners lined with white. But there were other designs. The Abrams has number 6 in the diagram on the wikipedia page.

Balkenkreuz - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I just find it funny.

Don't go down that rabbit hole. Even now they call it the Great Patriotic War. The entire thing has been whitewashed for generations and embedded firmly in the Russian psyche as the foundation of the modern Russian state. Which to the leadership is a much better outcome than admitting Stalin was even more of an idiot than Hitler when it came to managing the war (complete with yet another purge soon after the war began), the USSR let themselves be sucker-punched by a hilariously obvious German buildup, Eastern Europe joined in not because they liked the Germans but because they hated the Russians more, they were almost entirely dependent on Western aid to keep the men fed, their shells filled with actual explosives and the factories pumping out war machines, and perhaps most horrifyingly of all, that Zhukov was overrated as a general.

Yeah, I know the Russians are total Boomers when it comes to WW2. But so is the US. So, I am used it to it. But we have something even more retarded. Some Boomers and Boomer tier normie dumb shits like to call the Nazis socialists and Hitler was a leftist. It's cringey like the whole DR3 thing. It reminds me of that scene from The Simpsons where McBain says something about commie Nazis.

I know all about the Russians and the "Great Patriotic War" and their Boomer LARPing. The Russians are just as bad if not worse than America is about it. Like here in the US WW2 is about the only war Americans can remember fondly. Everything else is bad. You also have the "muh greatest generation" thing. Then of course all the Holohoax nonsense. I don't know the Russians handle that. I really don't want to know. I got sick of hearing about muh 6 bazillion along time ago.

The USSR was military a near-peer in in the 50s to the early/mid 60s and then fell to shit as the tech they looted from the nazis and stole from the west became obsolete and internal politics proceeded to smother any true innovation.
Their navy was a joke. They only reason they were a threat was because of the sheer square footage of Russia and they were immediately adjacent to Europe.

Contrast this with the US being an entire ocean away and being considered the primary counter weight. Dwell on that for a minute.


And put an Iron Cross on it.

Yes. they did. It's called a BalkenKreuz. Though the Google translate makes it sound like bikinkreitz. I had to listen to it a few times. The one the Germans use now is called a Bundeskreuz. Like I said in a response above it's number 6 in the diagram on wikipedia. The Balkenkreuz came in different variations. The simple black lines is the one the Russians put on the Abrams.

I noticed it after watching the video again. It's two of them on the front of the turret. On both sides of the main gun. The Russians went all in on the Ukrainians are Nazis thing. They just can't let it go.

The final nail in the coffin probably came around the late 70s when the first Leo 2 entered service in the German Army and Muricans produced a decent amount of TOWs and F-16s/15s compared with increasing capabilities in conventional cruise missiles. Soviets had the best chance in winning a conventional war in the 60s and maybe in the early 70s when the West was depressed over the outcome of Vietnam and the financial impact of the oil crisis. 1970 until 1975 was pretty much the only time period when the Eastern Bloc enjoyed a halfway decent standard of life. By the mid 80s it was completely ova' with unlimited American tax dollars flowing into projects like the B2, ICBMs and with the main meat shield of NATO West Germany deploying over 2.000 Leo 2 MBTs (quite unkown fact, that the German Army didn't sucked completely ass at one point in history) plus the Soviet economy going highspeed down towards the complete shitshow of the early 90s.

To think the US was still using the M60's while the Germans were using the Leo 2. America didn't start using the M1 till the mid 80's. I figured the Germans started using the Leo 2 about the same time the US started using the M1. I didn't know the Leo 2 entered service in 1979.

Would anyone like to discuss why Russia has so many different body armors in use currently? I'm not talking about Modul or the weird cyre clones that pop up with russian PMCs as those are understandable. But I just don't get why there are such variances between who gets 6B23 and 6B45. I've also seen 6B13 used and 6B12. Those are a bit rarer but you still see it, 6B12 isn't even digital flora but standard flora from the 90s. What the fuck is up with the plate designs too?

Probably the same reason why the Russians ended up with so many different types of tanks. There was the T-62 T-64 T-72 T-80 and T-90. That was just in a few decades. While the US went from the M47 M48 M60 and M1.

The most successful part of modern Russia's propaganda regarding the Soviet Union is how 'Gorbachev ruined everything!' Acting like he didn't inherit a sinking ship thanks to Brezhnev and his stupid ass being in charge for two decades and the two guys who both only stuck around for about a year each.

That's not to say Gorbachev is blameless in the collapse of the Soviet Union, but Brezhnev fucked up so badly it would take a herculean effort to keep it afloat in the long term by 1985 when Gorbachev was put in charge.

The Soviet Union was going to collapse anyway. Some people like to say the invasion of Afghanistan helped cause it. The rot was already there before they even invaded. The Soviet Union had a lot of corruption. Communism didn't help much either.

@Astro Galactic Megalul

Videogames were invented in the West. Genre and many game mechanics they're aping were invented by the West. Engine they're using is Western.
I've seen a lot of vatniks jerk each other off over this "all-Russian masterpiece", but it's not all-Russian. Even developers wanted to distance themselves from Russia just so they could sell it.

I don't hold any of it against the developers, mind you. Gamedev is by nature iterative. It's just that Russia hardly has anything of its own these days that's of any worth, culturally speaking.
We grew up watching American movies and playing American games, loving American snacks and so on. It was good, and it inspired a lot of people to do great things in turn. Vatniks just can't face the reality of being behind someone else on something, specifically the West. And instead of some sort of healthy competitive spirit, all they have is corrosive envy. Their idea of superiority is putting down others, like a bully.

They're in no position to put down US, so they crafted a strawman out of Ukraine and are beating the shit out of it, telling themselves it's actually America.

Invented in the West and run into the dirt by the West. The Japanese saved video games in the mid 80's. We may have invented them, but we nearly killed the hobby with shitty games.

I wouldn't call Atomic Heart a masterpiece it is a good game though. It's basically Russian Bioshock. Yeah, it doesn't do anything new or innovative that hasn't been done in the West with other games. The only thing new and interesting is the Russian and Commie stuff in the game. It's not Nazis or someone in the West screwing up. This time it's the Soviets. It's your typical story of how someone does something with good intentions and it goes horribly wrong. Kind of like Jurassic Park. Just this time it's Russians doing it.

Throughout the game you can see this kind of envy the Russians have that you talk about. Like they are actually in the position America was after WW2. They are helping people around the world. The Russians are solving problems. They are doing all these great things. It's just that it never went that way for them. But you can see that they wanted it to. It just never happened. Not to that extent. But I wouldn't say it's the kind of envy the vatniks have. It's more like an aspiration to do those things.

I've seen American "anti-war" cryptovatniks mention "American boomers" quite a few times, referring to Cold War mentality I presume, and that it's supposedly what's driving anti-Russian sentiment, implying Russia isn't actually the bad guy here and it's just all in their head.
From what I understand though, American society mostly moved on from it and doesn't dwell on that time, consumed by its present issues. But I know for sure that America still lives rent-free in the heads of vatniks (vast chunk of older Russians who grew up in USSR, and part of younger generation they managed to brainwash). So that statement about American boomers is really fucking ironic.
The cult of "Great Patriotic War" deliberately strives to ensure that people keep living in the past. There's more to be said on that, but I'm out of time for now.

We do have that issue here. Some people still live in the past. We have some older people in positions of power that never got over the cold war. I think it's an issue in both countries. I know some of the Russians are still butt hurt about the collapse of the Soviet Union. Though I don't think people like Putin was the communism back. They just want the power and everything else back. But your average American doesn't go around thinking about the Cold War all the time. But then again, it's not America that collapsed and fell apart. But we have our own problems especially now.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Here's a odd question. But the insanity of the modern world knows no limits. If a NATO head of State is found to have been assassinated by Putin operatives. Or a direct attempt on their life was made, how would that impact NATO Article V? Curious minds want to know. Seeing as Erdogan seems to have suddenly and alarmingly taken ill after meeting with a Russian Representative. The word poison is being thrown around. (Sadly he does not appear to be that sick and will probably make it).

Technically its an act of war to assassinate a head of state. Lets not forget this was essentially how World War 1 kicked off. The problem is its hard to prove whodunnit, especially to the level necessary of marshalling the political will to actually do the war. The only reason World War 1 popped off was because Serbia had been needling the Austrians for years up to that point and any excuse would do to hammer them.

 

[SDK]

Here's a odd question. But the insanity of the modern world knows no limits. If a NATO head of State is found to have been assassinated by Putin operatives. Or a direct attempt on their life was made, how would that impact NATO Article V? Curious minds want to know. Seeing as Erdogan seems to have suddenly and alarmingly taken ill after meeting with a Russian Representative. The word poison is being thrown around. (Sadly he does not appear to be that sick and will probably make it).

Any member can evoke it at any time for any reason.

From what I understand if the attack was directed against the a NATO member or the aim was to effect NATO security it would be regarded as an action covered by Article 5 as like what happened during 9 11. The NATO council will be briefed and it will make a decision within 24 hours. Then the NATO Secretary General informs the Secretary-General of the United Nations of the Alliance's decision.

Turkey can respond independently under the UN charter regardless of the degree of NATO assistance. (NATO cannot stop them from responding)

 

[Uranus Pink]

Nuclear weapons are an albatross. They are expensive, take up alot of space in terms of resources and personnel, and just don't really provide much utility.

If Ukraine had kept their expensive albatross, Russia never would've invaded in 2014 much less in 2022. Cause nuclear weapon's utility is being the box nobody wants open.

 

[mindlessobserver]

If Ukraine had kept their expensive albatross, Russia never would've invaded in 2014 much less in 2022. Cause nuclear weapon's utility is being the box nobody wants open.

Ukraine would never have been able to afford it. It would also have made them an international pariah. Its easy to look back now in retrospect, but at the time it was simply not feasible. Its possible the US and Russia would have worked together to forcibly disarm Ukraine of Nukes in that scenario.

This is also a double edged sword for Russia, because the policy of disarming Ukraine of Nukes hinges now on Russia not using its own nukes against Ukraine. If they did and the USA does not immediately militarily intervene? The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is dead. Fucking dead. And everyone is going to want Nukes, starting with Japan. Why do you think China is constantly hitting up Russia warning them to not use Nukes? They've crunched the numbers of this prisoner dilemma. If Russia uses Nukes on Ukraine, the USA will opt for Betrayal. But all the other Vassals of the USA will view this betrayal as Mutual and decide the US Nuclear Umbrella no longer applies to them. Japan will test a nuclear device within weeks of Russia using a nuke in Ukraine and boy will that be bad for China's ambitions.

 

[Uranus Pink]

Anyone who been paying attention will know United States already betrayed Ukraine with Obama giving Putin the go ahead as long he waited until the election was over. And Libya who have scraped their nuclear weapon program for United States not skull fucking al-Qaddafi and protection. Only for Obama to betrayed al-Qaddafi and Libya by aiding France and western Europe in overthrowing him and turning Libya into a hellhole.

 

[Snekposter]

To think the US was still using the M60's while the Germans were using the Leo 2. America didn't start using the M1 till the mid 80's. I figured the Germans started using the Leo 2 about the same time the US started using the M1. I didn't know the Leo 2 entered service in 1979.

The M60A3 at that time had been modernized with the absolute latest electronics, stabilizers, and a new gun though, leaving only the base hulls as 1960's components. Granted that meant the armor was more than a bit old, but, aside from that it was quite a serviceable design at least up to par with the latest T-72's. Keep in mind you've got a laser rangefinder, two-plane stabilizer, automatic fire control (originally introduced with the basic M60 in 1959!), and the M68E1 cannon could chuck sabots as good as or better than the Leo 2's 120mm could.

Japan will test a nuclear device within weeks of Russia using a nuke in Ukraine and boy will that be bad for China's ambitions.

As if Japan going nuclear wasn't bad enough, doesn't Taiwan have some NPP's and more than enough know-how of their own? A joint Taiwan/Japan nuclear program would pretty much force the world (including China) to recognize Taiwan as an independent nation. Because it would either be that or go all-in with China's claims of them being a rogue province, and uh... nobody sane would want to pick a fight with a rogue province willing to use nukes to assert their independence, especially if they've got overt backing from Japan and covert backing from South Korea and almost certainly Australia. After all, if North Korea of all irrelevant shitholes can demand to be taken seriously on account of nukes and not immediately be laughed out of the room, what does that mean for Taiwan?

 

[mindlessobserver]

Anyone who been paying attention will know United States already betrayed Ukraine with Obama giving Putin the go ahead as long he waited until the election was over. And Libya who have scraped their nuclear weapon program for United States not skull fucking al-Qaddafi and protection. Only for Obama to betrayed al-Qaddafi and Libya by aiding France and western Europe in overthrowing him and turning Libya into a hellhole.

Except Russia didn't use nukes in 2014. And the Budapest Memorandum was not an explicit defense treaty. It was meant to buttress the non proliferation treaty.

Also keep in mind Ukraine in 2014 did fuck all to defend Crimea. It was a Miracle they managed to hang onto the Donbass by their fingernails. Putin would have been forced to escalate to open involvement at that point which would have tested Obama, possibly to the breaking point so he didn't push the issue. The US was not going to carry all the water for Ukraine.

Things are a tad different now though. Ukraine is a going concern at this point thanks to how bungled the Russian invasion was, a little luck and the fact that Ukraine's Army didn't sit on their bayonets after 2014 and used the 8 years since the loss of Crimea to prepare for the inevitable round 2. Comparing US policy calculations now to what they were in 2014 is a bright apple to a very dull orange.

 

[RodgerDodger]

Ukraine would never have been able to afford it. It would also have made them an international pariah. Its easy to look back now in retrospect, but at the time it was simply not feasible. Its possible the US and Russia would have worked together to forcibly disarm Ukraine of Nukes in that scenario.

This is also a double edged sword for Russia, because the policy of disarming Ukraine of Nukes hinges now on Russia not using its own nukes against Ukraine. If they did and the USA does not immediately militarily intervene? The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is dead. Fucking dead. And everyone is going to want Nukes, starting with Japan. Why do you think China is constantly hitting up Russia warning them to not use Nukes? They've crunched the numbers of this prisoner dilemma. If Russia uses Nukes on Ukraine, the USA will opt for Betrayal. But all the other Vassals of the USA will view this betrayal as Mutual and decide the US Nuclear Umbrella no longer applies to them. Japan will test a nuclear device within weeks of Russia using a nuke in Ukraine and boy will that be bad for China's ambitions.

Japan and South Korea have both long been rumored to have an Israeli style "Turn Key" nuclear program. They don't have any functional Nuclear weapons nor have they ever tested any. But they have the primary components already developed for rapid assembly should the need ever arise. The US may or may not have quietly aided said programs back in the day.