Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Let's also not forget how their Helicopter Destroyer is totally not an aircraft carrier.
We here at Japan Self-Defense Forces Toy Company are very concerned about your concerns! But since you are Chinese and do not have a mastodonic penis, you can sit and spin on our new Helicopter Destroyer DLC: F-35s!
 
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Tom Shiel
Today at 17:19


An Irishman in his 40s has been killed while battling Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, his family confirmed today.
Finbar Cafferkey, a native of Achill Island, Co Mayo, was a military volunteer with previous combat experience in Syria where he assisted Kurdish militia in their battle against ISIS.
He recently travelled to Ukraine to assist local forces there.
Reports of Mr Cafferkey’s death were confirmed by his father, Tom, at the family home in Cashel, Achill, this afternoon.
Mr Cafferkey declined to elaborate on the circumstances of his son’s death or offer any further comment.
“We are grieving…it’s a private matter. I don’t want to say anything further,” he stated.
It is understood the family will be issuing a statement later on the death.
Achill Island, where the Cafferkey family is well-liked and respected, has been numbed with grief since news came through of the tragic death.
One local person said: “We heard reports on Wednesday that Finbar had been killed but we were hoping against hope that the information was untrue.
“Now that his death has been confirmed we are absolutely devastated.”
Others on Achill Island spoke of Finbar’s commitment to humanitarian and environmental causes.
He took part in the Shell to Sea protests against the Corrib Gas project and, in later years, worked in Copenhagen on a construction project.
“Finbar was a man of principle,” another islander recalled. “I know that about eight years ago he worked on the border between Greece and Macedonia assisting coming off dinghies.
“It came as a bit of surprise when we learnt from newspaper reports that he had been fighting in Syria. Nobody around here, except perhaps his family, knew he was in Ukraine.
“I know that relatives have been concerned for his safety over the years. His family have been particularly worried”.
The dead man’s parents, Tom and Celine, are being comforted by close relatives and neighbours. Tom is a former publican, who now works as an auctioneer.

Irish foreign volunteer from Achill, Co. Mayo, Ireland, construction worker, who previously fought alongside the Kurds in Syria and was a long time political activist, falls fighting in eastern Ukraine. May he Rest In Peace and Rise In Glory.


Excellent analysis by Vlad Vexler on Russian political attitudes.


Time Radio piece on RF naval failure in the Black Sea.

I keep having to copy and refresh, may the network engineers in dresses find something else to do.

Lieutenant General retired Jürgen Höche on dismantling and rebuilding NVA MiG-29s which were transferred to Poland for Ukraine.

 
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Anatoly Karlin is a Russian futurist and techno-nationalist who has been critical of Russia's conduct of the war. He has translated a list of 39 Questions that Russian ultra-nationalist "turbo-patriot" critics of the war such as Strelkov have for the Russian regime. The "Questions" come from the perspective of Russian nationalists wishing to crush the hated khokhols, but they clearly show from an un-biased perspective how Russia is losing and has lost the war:

"Historical" Questions
(1) Who answers for allowing Ukraine 8 years to arm and consolidate itself - when in 2014 the new Kiev regime's authority rested on a thread, and all Novorossiya lay bare for the taking after Crimea? (

2) Why were criminals & fraudsters allowed to take power in the People's Republics, transforming what should have been a showcase of the Russian World into a midden heap? Who was behind the killings of the 2014 resistance heroes?

(3) How is it that the "respected Western partners" led Putin "around by the nose for 8 years", by the President's very own admission? Why did his advisors not see or inform him on what was obvious to standers by?

(4) Why did the frontlines get fixed in the suburbs of Donetsk in autumn 2014 instead of expanding to the borders of the republics? Why was Mariupol not freed? What role did backroom deals between Surkov and Ukrainian oligarchs, esp. Akhmetov, play in this?

(5) Why weren't the LDNR militias properly trained and equipped in the last 8 years, while Ukraine engaged in military modernization? Who answered for this in the Defense Ministry? Military Questions

(6) How did the supposed "world's second best army" end up with almost no satellite recon or drones, and without any glide bombs or encrypted digital comms?

(7) Why were SMO plans built on assumptions fully detached from reality? Who misinformed the President?

( 8 ) Why did the Kremlin bet on thieves with no popular support such as Medvedchuk in the context of a quick victory? Was there a corruption element?

(9) What is the legal status of the SMO and what are its precise political-military goals? Why have they not be clarified more than a year into the beginning of military operations?

(10) Why was the possibility of US and EU sanctions not considered under SMO planning? Which bureaucrats will be held responsible for $300B of Russian reserves ending up blocked abroad?

(11) Soon after the start of the war it became clear domestic industry was critically reliant on foreign components. What happened to the "import substitution program" drummed up in prewar propaganda?

(12) Who carries responsibility for the shells hunger towards the end of 2022 and shortages in many other kinds of military equipment & accessories (comms, armor, medkits, etc.) only being partially remedied by volunteer efforts? What are the timelines for fixing it?

(13) Why were the borders not closed to men liable for mobilization at war's outbreak?

(14) Why are thousands of professional troops & mercs engaged in Syria, CAR, Mali, etc. while freshly mobilized troops are sent into the heaviest fighting?

(15) Why are "new citizens" from Central Asia & the Caucasus so rarely mobilized relative to Russians & indigenous minorities?

(16) Why were thousands of contract troops not punished for desertion at the SMO's start, while mobiks & volunteers are being sentenced for taking unauthorized leave?

(17) How to explain that the RF is fighting a war, while continuing to transport oil & gas across Ukraine, which are then converted into fuel in Bulgaria and send back to Ukraine?

( 18 ) How to explain the "grain deals", which Lavrov says "give no benefit to our country" since "partners don't fulfill their obligations"?

(19) On what basis were Azov prisoners (complicit in mass killings, torture, etc.) released to Ukraine?

(20) Who will take responsibility for the sinking of the Moskva?

(21) On what basis did the Russian Army "deescalate" from Kiev, Sumy, Chernigov?

(22) What were the targets of the many hundreds of cruise missiles launched at the start of the SMO? Why were Ukraine's decision-making centers, telecomms, air defense, transport infrastructure, etc. not destroyed nor even significantly damaged?

(23) Why on the 14th month of the SMO does the above still remain the case?

(24) Why were missile strikes on the electric grid aimed against secondary targets, and halted before they produced any significant results, such that Ukraine is again supplying energy to its neighbors?

(25) When will the Russian President adopt his Constitutional function of Commander in Chief, and does he plan to do it at all? Who specifically has directed the SMO in the past year, and who carries responsibility for military decisions?

(26) Who bears responsibility for the "Successful Regrouping" from Kharkov, resulting in the uncontested capture of Izyum, Kupyansk, etc., as a result of which masses of equipment were captured and Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk are now under UAF artillery fire?

(27) On what legal basis was the (quasi)-"mobilization" carried out, given that there is no war, and the SMO has no formal legal status? Subsequently, on what legal basis are deserters charged?

( 28 ) Why did "mobilization" exclusively concern conscription into the Armed Forces, and did not involve other elements, such as mobilization of the security services, industry, transport, etc.? Who determined its criteria? What mechanisms exist for deterring shirkers?

(29) Who made the "Hard Decision" to leave Kherson uncontested - a territory of the RF and a capital of one of its subjects? Why are suggestions to "freeze the conflict in the current positions" (e.g. from Prigozhin recently) not criminally investigated as an attack on the RF's territorial integrity? Or is Kherson no longer Russia? Who made that decision and on what basis?

(30) What is the assessment of high state officials (Matvienko, Beglov) making speeches in front of the flag of a hostile state?

(31) Why does the "concern for the preservation of the Russian people and Russian language" declared by the President and high officials not extend to those areas of Ukraine where the native Russian population has been subjected to continuous cultural genocide? (32) What is the logic behind the Russian military's "strategy" of offensive operations near exclusively in Donbass against the enemy's most fortified positions, which haven't budged in months, and which do not lead to the breaking of the UAF and Kiev's capitulation? Why are other strategic directions, many of them more prospective ones, ignored? Why is the local initiative there given over to the enemy?

(33) Where are all our very new military toys, which were hyped up nonstop in the prewar era? Why are T-54/55 tanks and D-20 howitzers produced when Stalin was still alive being brought to the front? Who and in what quantities disposed of masses of much more modern and "unneeded" Soviet weaponry across the Syrias, Libyas, Sudans, etc.? Where are the combat robots? Where are the 10,000s of Arab volunteers, "grateful for our help", promised us by the Defense Minister?

(34) Why is Kazakhstan, saved by our peacekeepers from civil war a month before the SMO, steadily becoming more Russophobic and joining sanctions against us? Who made the decision to keep the current ruling clique there in power, as opposed to other, more Russophile pretenders?

(35) Why are all significant diversions, terrorist acts, and even military strikes on the territory of the RF ascribed to "Ukrainian nationalists" by our officials, thus taking away responsibility from Ukrainian officials and soldiers - even in cases where the latter directly claim credit? Where are analogous Russian diversionary acts in Ukraine? Why was an effective "underground" not created in the past 8 years in Ukraine, even in the Russian speaking areas? Why are there no attempts to create one right now?

(36) Why, when 100,000s of our soldiers (and the denizens of border regions) carry all the burdens and dangers of the front, does the rest of the country live as if the war doesn't exist?

(37) When will the goals of the SMO and the conditions of its successful fulfillment be crisply and officially explained to society?

( 38 ) On what basis are the people who for years have insisted on the "sacral Minsk accords", "Donbass within a united Ukraine", and "do it all yourselves" attitude towards the People's Republics - continue to head the commanding heights of domestic, foreign, and media policy? Whereas those people who have warned about the perils of this delaying course, early and consistently, and correctly predicted where it would lead - a long and hard war - remain the whipping boys of official propaganda, are portrayed as marginals, and are even prevented from physically taking part in the defense of the Motherland?

(39) On what basis does the foreign media regularly release news stories (with attached photo and video evidence) pertaining to the adventures of close relatives of high state and military Russian officials in the resorts and entertainment complexes of countries that maintain hostile relations towards Russia, including imposing sanctions on it and supporting Ukraine, including with direct arms supplies? When will the President care to make any assessment regarding these officials?

Russki Original|Archive
Karlin's Tweet|Archive
 
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Anatoly Karlin is a Russian futurist and techno-nationalist
Oh I know the dude I used to follow him on Twitter when I still had an account. He's pretty smart, I remember he went full Z when the war started, which of course disappointed me. And then he got more and more sour with the "limited scope" of the "special operation", and mad at Putin for not throwing everything at Ukraine, mass mobilizing etc., he was also kinda paranoid that "the West" and Ukraine will now win soon enough and other such bipolar behaviors.
Didn't check on him for half a year, gonna read through this.
 
Thanks to the few NAFO videos I watched YouTube started recommending NAFO videos to me. I found this one especially cringey because of the use of AFV (America's Funniest Videos). With the speculation about the age of the people involved with NAFO I can't believe it's Zoomers. I doubt any Zoomer even knows about AFV. Is it even on TV anymore? The people involved in NAFO must be some really Boomer tier older millennials and young Gen X. That's the only people I could think of doing this kind of cringey shit.


It's like the whole video is why the cringing Pepe meme exists.

Also YouTube recommended a better video. A B-2 dropping 80 JDAM's. I remember hearing the Ukrainians have some and they have been made to fit onto MiG-29's. This video shows the damage JDAM's can do.

 
Also YouTube recommended a better video. A B-2 dropping 80 JDAM's. I remember hearing the Ukrainians have some and they have been made to fit onto MiG-29's. This video shows the damage JDAM's can do.

Like this:

That's a set of four; the last two impact almost simultaneously, in nearly the same spot.

I assume that Ukrainians used two aircraft, and were dropped/lobbed from dozens of miles away. But even if they popped up at the last minute to toss those JDAMs, they would've been well within AAM & SAM range... if Russia had something like a functional combat-air patrol, and SAMs that haven't been expended, destroyed, or kept dark/hidden, for fear of anti-radiation missiles & drone attack.
(S-300 cooks off after drone/precision munition strike)
 
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What are your expectations for the spring counter-offensive?
UAF is going to thrust southward in the direction of Melitopol or Berdiansk. Reaching the Sea of Azov is a one-way ticket to win it, but even if they just get within fire control of the major road between Crimea and Donbass they can cause problems.
Russia has a material advantage, but if UAF can divide and isolate critical tracts of territory from the Russian mainland, they have the potential to cause significant collapse & fragmentation in areas.

Whether it works or not is anyone's gamble, and what sort of gayops feints & probes happen beforehand I can't tell you.

Also expect Hrim-2 strikes on the Kherch Bridge and key transport ship landing spots in Crimea & Melitopol before then.
 
I just wanna personally thank everyone in this thread for participating in and maintaining the only place on the internet I've found that doesn't make finding actual news about the war a colossal fucking headache. Even the zigger thread is better at it than a lot of other places I've looked.

It's fairly interesting. Some of those are legit concerns that make sense, and others are basically 'RUSSIA STRONG? WHY RUSSIA NOT WIN ALREADY?'
If you'd spent your entire life hearing about how your country is the only real threat to America, your country's previous incarnation spent decades acting as the political and military foil to America and part of the national consciousness for many people over 30 is being a bulwark against American imperialism, you might have some of the same odd questions.

And then... an actual war, not an occupation or a proxy war or just rolling into a previous soviet constituent to make a point, an actual fucking war where the people they're driving the tanks towards shoot back enough to make a difference. And it isn't even America! It's the sloppy seconds invasion of another former soviet constituent! Surely glorious Russia will steamroll the hohols, we can stand up to Uncle Sam! Then the dominos start to fall and the scales fall from their eyes and they see the entire Russian military industry has been one of those famous potemkin villages since the 80s. Pumping out just enough stuff to keep up appearances and keep the -stans and caucasus from chimping out. Then more and more questions start to pile up, both ideological and tactical. I'd probably be fucking pissed and have a few dozens questions too if I was a Russian nationalist and I had to see the absolute fucking state of the war.
 
I just wanna personally thank everyone in this thread for participating in and maintaining the only place on the internet I've found that doesn't make finding actual news about the war a colossal fucking headache. Even the zigger thread is better at it than a lot of other places I've looked.


If you'd spent your entire life hearing about how your country is the only real threat to America, your country's previous incarnation spent decades acting as the political and military foil to America and part of the national consciousness for many people over 30 is being a bulwark against American imperialism, you might have some of the same odd questions.

And then... an actual war, not an occupation or a proxy war or just rolling into a previous soviet constituent to make a point, an actual fucking war where the people they're driving the tanks towards shoot back enough to make a difference. And it isn't even America! It's the sloppy seconds invasion of another former soviet constituent! Surely glorious Russia will steamroll the hohols, we can stand up to Uncle Sam! Then the dominos start to fall and the scales fall from their eyes and they see the entire Russian military industry has been one of those famous potemkin villages since the 80s. Pumping out just enough stuff to keep up appearances and keep the -stans and caucasus from chimping out. Then more and more questions start to pile up, both ideological and tactical. I'd probably be fucking pissed and have a few dozens questions too if I was a Russian nationalist and I had to see the absolute fucking state of the war.
Alot of those questions they already know the answer too, they just can't admit it to themselves yet. Russia lied about its capabilities and can't actually do the shit it says it can.

Such as why Russia hasn't tried to bomb Ukraines Legislature or Presidential palace. They can't. They literally cannot get the shit through the Kiev Air Defense Grid which is set to go ape on anything on a trajectory towards the government center. So they had to content themselves with targeting electrical infrastructure in the suburbs and even that has stopped working as Ukraine has tightened up its air defense.

I think the most telling thing about how badly this war has gone for Russia is not 2 weeks till Bakhmut. It's the fact the Ukrainian Air Force is still a thing and Russia can't get Air superiority. That is a catastrophic failure, with massive ramifications, not the least being the absolutely glacial pace of Russias advance.
 
Bayraktar "Kemankes" micro cruise-missile for drones, 50+km range
Designed to be used from Bayraktar TB2, TB3 and AKINCI-type UAVs, the KEMANKEŞ munition will be able to engage tactically valuable targets, such as air defense systems from safe distances.

This mini cruise missile is 1.73 meters long and has a wingspan of 1.25 meters when its wings are deployed. It weighs 30 kilograms, of which 6 kg is its warhead.

Powered by a jet engine, KEMANKEŞ can fly for 1 hour at 370 km/h, reaching a top speed of 864 km/h (mach 0.7) when diving over a target.
The munition uses an anti-jamming satellite navigation system (GNSS). To recognize and aim at its targets it has a two-axis stabilized camera system with a 36x magnification zoom and a laser rangefinder with a range of 2.8 kilometers. In addition, it uses artificial intelligence algorithms to process images and recognize its targets.
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Edit:. I was just wondering if someone has tried using miniature RC turbines for drones, since those engines are even being used for jetpacks & wingsuits; then it turns out the roaches have been busy.
 
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Danish armed forces claim sightings of a Russian ship near the site of the Nordstream explosion. Their sightings were on on September 26th last year. Four days before the explosion. That ship was SS-750 and it carries a mini-submarine on board. SS-750 and a tugboat accompanying it had their transponders off that day.

English translation:

Original (in Danish):

This muddies the waters a bit. Reports based on American intel from February hinted that independent, pro-Ukrainian groups were likely responsible for the sabotage (https://archive.ph/N7poX).

I do not know who to believe in regards to Nordstream. Pro-Russian side's narrative is even muddier than the western one. They claimed that the sabotage has been done by:
- British, according to Russian ministry of defense back on 28th of October, 2022, soon after Sunak took over as the prime minister in the UK - https://archive.ph/Pf2q2
- Americans, according to Lavarov around 2nd February 2023 - https://archive.ph/mFfgI
- Norwegians and Americans, according to Seymour Hersh in his substack article on February 8th, 2023 - https://archive.ph/qcAMl. This was quickly picked up by pro-Russian news outlets and telegram accounts.
None of them were backed by any proof.
 
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