Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

I've done the math and even a snail would be well past Bakhmut from the Russian starting lines by now.

That snail should be roughly in Dnipro by now, or Kremenchuk if it didn't take any breaks.

 

[Uranus Pink]

As you said, that's before you address the historic fuckery.


There are numerous other issues with the T-90, correct. But no one has seriously looked at surmounting them for Ukraine. I want to say there was some logistics war game about Taiwan or Korea popping off.

Only major issue the JSDF have with the T-90 is that they think it is too big to be use in urban combat. As for Ukraine the Type 90 is not available as the JSDF is using all of them for the forseeable future. Since it and the Type 10 have been built in greatly reduced numbers as opposed to the older Type 61s and Type 74s which had built in much larger numbers during their production run.

 

[Snekposter]

(which has already been paid for, and was mostly bought to be lobbed at Russkies in the first place)

That's pretty much why I'm so fine with the aid. Anyone who thinks this shit wasn't around at least in part for dealing with Russian shenanigans is fooling themselves.

 

[draggs]

Times muh stronk Russia has had its ass handed to it, either by outright failure, Pyrrhic victory, or victory with such an abysmal KDR, against much smaller foes, that it is a disgrace.

Poles (lol)
Napoleon (smaller country nearly overruns you and you're saved by running away)
Crimea
Japan (wtf)
WW1 against the Central Powers (epic fail so hard your empire disintegrates)
Poles again (Jesus)
Finns (win just enough land to bury your dead)
WW2 (smaller country nearly overruns you and you're saved by running away, also despite fighting multiple small wars, a world war, and a civil war, somehow still don't have enough guns)
Hungary (embarrassing mess, tanks BTFO by proles w. bombs)
Chechnya (selling their own guns)

@Ghostse I don't know if there's supermajorities at all. I don't trust anyone's take on this because I know I'm getting sold propaganda either way. Anything from before Trump, pretty much, is going to be irreparably tainted with slant. I know Russians were often abused after the Soviet Union collapsed and they were caught on the wrong side of the border, although many times they'd been in that area for hundreds of years (like Transnistria). Supposedly South Ossetians were being abused.

I'm more disgusted by Russia's worthlessness than anything else, especially because it shows there is no hope for anyone teaching the US a well-deserved lesson (Chinaboos are ever more retarded, they have no ability to fight at all).

What lesson

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Interesting special report from the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI):
"Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine", Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, 19 May 2023.

https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf

Wayback Machine archived version.
The first paragraph of the report's conclusion reveals the report's main theme; that Russia cannot be taken lightly at all, despite the internet laughing and memeing at its armed forces:

THE TENDENCY IN much of the international discourse surrounding the Russian military has been to write it off as tactically inept, technically deficient and morally broken. These criticisms have more than a grain of truth to them. Nevertheless, they tend to extrapolate from the performance of certain Russian units to the whole force. Alongside their deficiencies, Russian forces have demonstrated that much of their equipment is effective, highly lethal and adaptable to a range of threats. While there are serious deficiencies in Russian capabilities, these are most pronounced in conducting offensive operations. Conversely, many of Russia’s combat support arms have not only demonstrated reasonable proficiency but have also shown that they are able to adapt to emerging threats.

Also, the T-62 (and even the T-55!) aren't quite the jokes the internet has made them out to be:

It is important to note that while the introduction of older tanks such as the T62 and T55 to the field has been mocked online, these vehicles are largely being used in the role of the fire support function offered by BMPs and other infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). They represent an increase in range, protection and kinetic effect over these IFVs, and therefore pose a serious battlefield threat when there are a limited number of anti-tank guided weapons able to reach them at their stand-off range.

The same role Leopard 1s (and Challenger 1s, if the British could get them off Jordan and Oman) could fulfill in urban conflict, like in Bakhmut, where they would be better than the relatively lightly-armored BTR-4 with their thicker armor and cannons.

 

[mindlessobserver]

The AFU has been completely destroyed in Bakhmut today according to the cope thread. That telegram video by Prighozin single handedly made TEN BRIGADES of the Ukrainian Army cease to exist. How Ukraine managed to fit Ten Brigades, which is esentially three fucking divisions into such a small area is a question only coping hohols ask. Truly enlightened individuals know that it makes perfect sense for a modern army to cram three fucking divisions into a space the size of Delaware. As for how the video destroyed them, well, this too is left unanswered. Rest assured However that with the 52nd largest town in Ukraine in Russian Hands, it's only a matter of time now for the Hohols.

 

[Melmac_Knight]

as I predicted that Bakhmut will fall this week, I remain a Nostradumbass

 

[NSJAP]

>Bakhmut has fallen

 

[Foltest]

Here is a map of Ukraine and the occupied land.
a few days out of date, but still useful.

 

[teriyakiburns]

Here is a map of Ukraine and the occupied land.
a few days out of date, but still useful.
View attachment 5131200

Looks like they'll have taken Odessa and Kharkiv in a matter of hours.

 

[CuzinEd]

The war in Ukraine isn't mentioned in the video but it's still an interesting video about Putin Russia and some things that probably influence him.

Failing that Russians unloaded white phosphorus payloads on civilian houses out of paranoia for, nevermind the fact white phosphorus munitions are against Geneva convention (Which Russia violated with glee)

I don't think the Russians really give a shit about the Geneva Convention. Good luck enforcing that shit on a nuclear power.

Times muh stronk Russia has had its ass handed to it, either by outright failure, Pyrrhic victory, or victory with such an abysmal KDR, against much smaller foes, that it is a disgrace.

Poles (lol)
Napoleon (smaller country nearly overruns you and you're saved by running away)
Crimea
Japan (wtf)
WW1 against the Central Powers (epic fail so hard your empire disintegrates)
Poles again (Jesus)
Finns (win just enough land to bury your dead)
WW2 (smaller country nearly overruns you and you're saved by running away, also despite fighting multiple small wars, a world war, and a civil war, somehow still don't have enough guns)
Hungary (embarrassing mess, tanks BTFO by proles w. bombs)
Chechnya (selling their own guns)

@Ghostse I don't know if there's supermajorities at all. I don't trust anyone's take on this because I know I'm getting sold propaganda either way. Anything from before Trump, pretty much, is going to be irreparably tainted with slant. I know Russians were often abused after the Soviet Union collapsed and they were caught on the wrong side of the border, although many times they'd been in that area for hundreds of years (like Transnistria). Supposedly South Ossetians were being abused.

I'm more disgusted by Russia's worthlessness than anything else, especially because it shows there is no hope for anyone teaching the US a well-deserved lesson (Chinaboos are ever more retarded, they have no ability to fight at all).

I don't just take what people say as the truth. I take what they are saying and see if it matches up with what I am saying. People that say no one knows what's going on in Ukraine are right and wrong. We might not know exactly what's going on but people can look at the information available and kid of get an idea of what is going. We can definitely see what's true and not true to extent. People that go on about the fog of war are exaggerating that a bit. We might not know all the small details but we can see what's going on in the bigger picture. We don't need too much proof that Russia has failed at it's strategic objectives and is losing the war. That is pretty obvious.
@Ughubughughughughughghlug

I too had a dictator phase. For me it started with learning about gradualist socialism, and reasoning that if there are segments of society actively trying to work for a Communist dictatorship, then a preemptive strike on them is necessary. Pinochet and Lee Kuan Yew were my main interests. Later in life I mellowed out, started appreciating more the benefits of democratic society/how authoritarianism wrecks a place, and especially as Leftist authoritarianism ratcheted up I started realizing how much I hate this shit. But you still do what you have to do, there are definitely worse things than a Rightist junta and we're hurtling towards them right now.
I wrote a high school report paper defending Russia's irredentism in Crimea. I still stand by it. Crimea is ethnically Russian. If those eastern Ukrainian territories by supermajority want to be part of Russia/independent they should be. But I've seen enough aggression out of Russia by now to feel strong parallels to Hitler and Hussein. It's the same progression from very reasonable territorial claims to more and more tenuous ones. I doubt that he'd stop there. But I'm basically neutral in this because I don't know enough about the situation. I distrust the media and political establishment all jumping on this all at once.
I don't understand anyone that viewed Russia as some big stronk country. I didn't expect Russia to do as abysmally as it has, but any passing familiarity with Russian history shows them for incompetents that rely on outnumbering their enemies, and deeper familiarity with them reveals it as even worse. Occasionally they will get into a fight so protracted that they have time to fix up their shitty army into something halfway decent (as at the end of Napoleon and WW2), but then it goes right back to its usual ways. The whole country is a cesspool and has been since the Mongols, remarkably productive people at culture and science but it's like they have the souls of Asians in the bodies of Europeans. I don't even consider them real Europeans, there's a reason we say they Westernized but they didn't really, no more than say Japanese did. The only thing remotely impressive about the Russians was their space program (better, overall, than the US; they happened to drop the ball on the one thing that mattered most in public opinion) and their commandos, of course they had good equipment too, but good equipment is useless when your society doesn't make enough of it to actually outfit troops and your whole army is staffed top to bottom with political toadies and demoralized conscripts that literally sell their supplies to the enemy.
People also have a bad tendency to assume the Tsar was good because they were better than the Communists, the Empire was up unitl the 1860s a hellhole where something like nine tenths of the population were de facto slaves and the people were crushed by a secret police force. Western European countries had a way more liberal concept of serfdom and some notion of political freedom under absolutism. Russia was a tyrant's personal property like any shitty Middle Eastern or Asian empire.

I never really grew out of mine. I was a fan of the Nazis even as a kid. I remember telling my mom I wanted to be a Nazi and she said you can't because they no longer exist. Nazi was my first dream occupation. Hitler Nazis basically any kind of authoritarianism. I even have an interest in some of the Communist authoritarianism. Not the Communism. But with the way they dealt with their opposition and politcal dissidents and anyone who stood in their way. But I also like Mafia stuff. Though they are a bit scummy. More like the Hollywood Mafia stuff. What really strengthened my interest in that kind of stuff is knowing that most people are idiots and can't be trusted to do the right things. That people just can't be left alone. The vast of majority of them won't do what they are told unless it's at gun point or threats of violence and bodily harm. I always say the only thing people understand is a rifle butt to the head or a boot on their throat.

It would be good to use some of this stuff on the more problematic people and idiots in the US. Mainly leftist types. I know it will probably never happen because of the US is but I can still dream. I just want leftist faggots rounded up and shipped off to camps in the worst part of Alaska.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

The AFU has been completely destroyed in Bakhmut today according to the cope thread. That telegram video by Prighozin single handedly made TEN BRIGADES of the Ukrainian Army cease to exist. How Ukraine managed to fit Ten Brigades, which is esentially three fucking divisions into such a small area is a question only coping hohols ask. Truly enlightened individuals know that it makes perfect sense for a modern army to cram three fucking divisions into a space the size of Delaware. As for how the video destroyed them, well, this too is left unanswered. Rest assured However that with the 52nd largest town in Ukraine in Russian Hands, it's only a matter of time now for the Hohols.

I've been hearing a lot of contradicting reports on Bakhmut over the last few days, and I was pretty sure Ukraine was advancing in the flanks?
We'll see what happens. I mean, there's not much of a city left, it would make sense to level whatever remains along with Wagner at this point, if Ukraine really decided to pull out.

 

[mindlessobserver]

I've been hearing a lot of contradicting reports on Bakhmut over the last few days, and I was pretty sure Ukraine was advancing in the flanks?
We'll see what happens. I mean, there's not much of a city left, it would make sense to level whatever remains along with Wagner at this point, if Ukraine really decided to pull out.

They still are by all accounts. Would be rather funny for Wagner to "take" Bakhmut only to fall back a week later.

 

[East_Clintwood]

Would be rather funny for Wagner to "take" Bakhmut only to fall back a week later.

Prigozhin has already announced that Wagner is handing over all their positions there to the Russian army, so they can pull back and redeploy outside of Ukraine again. Not gonna lie, Wagner finally taking Bakhmut, only for the Russian Army proper to immediately lose it again, would be kino tbh,

 

[Glowie]

I don't think the Russians really give a shit about the Geneva Convention. Good luck enforcing that shit on a nuclear power

I was pointing the irony that Soviet Union signed the Geneva convention and cry everyone else using biological weapons. Remember plagued pigeon accusation and weaponization of virology lab in Ukraine? Yeah those and single Merc defector who told about Ukrainian war crimes to Russian press.

Russia violates the very conventions that they signed and accuse other.

Russia is playing TF2 and cries hacks when they suck so much that they use a aimbot and play medic. Then get their ass kicked.

 

[WhiteNight]

Prigozhin has already announced that Wagner is handing over all their positions there to the Russian army, so they can pull back and redeploy outside of Ukraine again. Not gonna lie, Wagner finally taking Bakhmut, only for the Russian Army proper to immediately lose it again, would be kino tbh,

Wagner announced previously that they would leave Bakhmut on May 10, but stayed, probably because they were ordered to remain with threats of treason charges. The same may happen with this planned May 25 withdrawal. It is unlikely the regular Russian army can be deployed to swap in control of all these positions, under fire, in only a few days.

I'd like to see them try though.

 

[Cpt. Stud Beefpile]

So with the Ukranian Alamo finally fallen, where does each side stand?

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Oh America absolutely can and should spend more money on it's own people. The thing with a lot of the aid to Ukraine is it's kind of misleading because a lot of it is drawdown from existing stocks (which has already been paid for, and was mostly bought to be lobbed at Russkies in the first place), and a lot of it is shit that would have expired and had to be replaced anyway, because shit doesn't last forever. Might as well give it to the Ukies and let them be the ones to toss it an Russians, risk free to Americans.

That's what I don't get about the WASTINK MONEY ON UKRAINE!!! argument.
Like 1) Did our taxes actually increase to give to Ukraine, or was it all pulled out of money somewhere else?
2) I don't know about you, but I'd rather have my tax dollars going to Javelins for Ukraine than entitlements and gibsmedats for welfare queens back stateside
3) All that shit needed to be mothballed anyways, and its not free to get rid of equipment or keep it in storage anyways

So with the Ukranian Alamo finally fallen, where does each side stand?

Russia has gained a morale victory and 1/3 stepping stones required to take Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

And it only took them 9 fucking months and tens of thousands dead to capture it...

 

[Cpt. Stud Beefpile]

Russia has gained a morale victory and 1/3 stepping stones required to take Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

And it only took them 9 fucking months and tens of thousands dead to capture it...

I'm more worried about how much it cost Ukraine than the stepping stone they (finally) got their mitts on. They seem to be running low on tanks but unless they run completely out, as in fielding literal WW2 stuff on frontlines that even a LAW will peel open like a tin can, the orcs might still win with numbers.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Prigozhin has already announced that Wagner is handing over all their positions there to the Russian army, so they can pull back and redeploy outside of Ukraine again. Not gonna lie, Wagner finally taking Bakhmut, only for the Russian Army proper to immediately lose it again, would be kino tbh,

Plausible deniability. If or when Ukraine pushes back, Wagner won't be there anymore so they can't get blamed if Ukraines counter attack works.

I'm more worried about how much it cost Ukraine than the stepping stone they (finally) got their mitts on. They seem to be running low on tanks but unless they run completely out, as in fielding literal WW2 stuff on frontlines that even a LAW will peel open like a tin can, the orcs might still win with numbers.

Ukraine really didn't use a lot of tanks in the Bakhmut area from what I was seeing. Lots of dug in entrenchments and so on, but most of the fighting was done by Dismounts and artillery.