Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[draggs]

The Belgorod incursion is brilliant. Russia has gotten away with leaving most of their border undefended while starting a war against a neighbor because Ukraine has been told by western partners to not attack Russia. So, they get some Russian citizens to do the actual invasion using Ukrainian gear and say it's an internal conflict. Now Russia has to worry about protecting the entire border by redeploying forces, or look incredibly weak. In meme form:
View attachment 5135021
I assume the Legion does not have a death wish and will leave if there is a massive response. If they stay and all die I will revise my assessment.

So it could only be a raid disguised as a rebellion. On the other hand, Russia may have trouble sparing the weaponry, and the Legion may be able to dig in. The memes about the Bilhorod People's Republic could become reality. Either way, it's a morale win and an egg on Russia's face, as Russia can no longer assure the integrity of its territory, and it will require moving important reserves away from key areas in Ukraine.

One more meme:
View attachment 5135022

And then the culmination

2024: "Due to real world data, all Russian vehicles have been horribly nerfed in World of Tonks"

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Ukraine is getting 110 Leopard 1A5, amongst other things:

War in UkraineMilitary support for Ukraine
Germany provides support for Ukraine by supplying equipment and weapons, these come from supplies of the Federal Arms Forces and from deliveries from industry financed from the Federal Government’s funds for security capacity building. An overview.

This list provides an overview of military assistance provided by the Federal Republic of Germany to Ukraine. It includes deliveries from the Federal Armed Forces, from industry and assistance measures together with partners, which have, inter alia, been financed from Federal Government funds for security capacity building.
Funding for the security capacity building initiative amounts to 5.4 billion Euros for 2023 (after 2 billion Euros for 2022) and additional authorisations to enter commitments in the following years amounting to 10.5 billion Euros. These funds are to be used primarily for military assistance to Ukraine. At the same time, they will be used for re-filling Federal Armed Forces stocks for items delivered to Ukraine as well as for Germany’s contributions to the European Peace Facility (EPF), from which costs incurred from providing military assistance to Ukraine can be re-imbursed to EU member states.

Delivered military support to Ukraine:

(Changes compared to the previous update in bold)
Armoured fighting vehicles

• 18 LEOPARD 2 A 6 main battle tanks with ammunition (German share in joint project with further LEOPARD 2 operators)
• 40 infantry fighting vehicles MARDER with ammunition (from Bundeswehr and industry stocks*)
• 50 MRAP vehicles DINGO
• 54 M113 armoured personnel carriers each with 2 MG* (systems of Denmark, upgrades financed by Germany)
• 118 MG3 for LEOPARD 2, MARDER and DACHS
• Spare parts for LEOPARD 2 and MARDER

Air defence

• 1 air surveillance radar TRML-4D*
• 2 air defence system Iris-T SLM*
• Iris-T SLM missiles*
• air defence system PATRIOT with missiles
• 34 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns GEPARD including circa 6.000 rounds of ammunition*
• 53,000 rounds ammunitions for self-propelled anti-aircraft guns
• 4,000 rounds practice ammunitions for self-propelled anti-aircraft guns
• 500 Man Portable Air Defense Systems STINGER
• 2,700 Man Portable Air Defense Systems STRELA

Artillery

• 5 multiple rocket launchers MARS II with ammunition (German share in joint project with USA and Great Britain)
• ammunition for multiple rocket launchers MARS II
• 14 self-propelled howitzers Panzerhaubitze 2000 (German share in joint project with the Netherlands)
• 23,500 projectiles 155mm
• 155mm precision guided ammunition*
• 20 rocket launchers 70mm on pick-up trucks with rockets*
• counter battery radar system COBRA*

Military Engineering Capabilities

• 8 bridge-laying tanks BEAVER* (before: 6)
• 11 mobile and protected mine clearing systems* (before:
• 15 armoured recovery vehicles Bergepanzer 2*
• 4 armoured engineer vehicles DACHS*
• 2 armoured recovery vehicles Bergepanzer 3
• 2 mine clearing tanks WISENT 1*
• 3 mobile, remote controlled and protected mine clearing systems*
• 17 heavy and medium bridge systems*
• 6 palettes material for explosive ordnance disposal

Protective and Special Equipment

• 54 reconnaissance drones VECTOR*
• 40 frequency range extensions for anti-drone devices* (before: 32)
• 130 border protection vehicles* (before: 124)
• 1 communications electronic scanner/jammer systems*
• 32 reconnaissance drones*
• 42 mobile antenna mast systems*
• 90 drone detection systems*
• 40 laser target designators*
• 55 anti-drone sensors and jammers*
• 10 unmanned surface vessels*
• 10 anti-drone guns*
• 28,000 combat helmets
• 125 binoculars
• 600 safety glasses
• 1 radio frequency system
• 3,000 field telephones with 5.000 cable reels and carrying straps
• 353 night vision goggles*
• 12 electronic anti-drone devices*
• 165 field glasses*
• 38 laser range finders*
• 6 mobile decontamination vehicles HEP 70 including decontamination material
• 10 HMMWV (8x ground radar capability, 2x jamming/anti drone capability)*
• 7 radio jammers*
• 8 mobile ground surveillance radars and thermal imaging cameras*
• 1 high frequency unit with equipment*

Logistics

• 4 load-handling trucks 8x6 with 20 roll of containers* (before: 2)
• 17 truck tractor trains 8x8 HX81 and 12 semi-trailers* (before: 12)
• 288 vehicles (trucks, minibuses, all-terrain vehicles) (before: 280)
• 179 Pick-ups* (before: 145)
• 92 trucks Zetros* (before: 84)
• 12 tank transporter tractor M1070 Oshkosh*
• 26 load-handling trucks 15t*
• 12 heavy duty trailer trucks and 4 semi-trailers*
• 35 load-handling trucks 8x8
• 30 protected vehicles*
• 10 roll off containers
• 7 tracked and remote controlled infantry vehicles for support tasks*

Combat Readiness and Survivability

• 83,520 rounds ammunition 40mm*
• 160,000 first aid kits*
• 103.000 tourniquets
• 500 pistols SFP9*
• 2 hangar tents*
• 8 lift trucks*
• 295 generators
• 10 winter camouflage nets
• 168 mobile heating systems*
• 36 ambulances*
• 36.400 wool blankets
• 14,000 sleeping bags
• Mi-24 spare parts*
• spare parts for heavy machine gun M2
• 200 tents
• 116.000 winter jackets
• 80.000 winter trousers
• 240.000 winter hats
• 405,000 pre-packaged military Meals Ready
• 67 fridges for medical material*
• 3,000 anti-tank weapons Panzerfaust 3 with 900 firing devices
• 14,900 anti-tank mines (9,300* from industry stocks)
• 22 million rounds of ammunition for fire arms
• 50 Bunkerfaust with 15 firing devices
• 100 machine gun MG3 with 500 spare barrels and breechblocks
• 100,000 hand grenades
• 5,300 explosive charges
• 100,000 m detonating cord and 100.000 detonators
• 350,000 detonators
• 100 auto-injector devices
• 15 palettes military clothing
• 1,200 hospital beds
• 18 palettes medical material, 60 surgical lights
• protective clothing, surgical masks
• 1 field hospital (project jointly financed with Estonia)*
• medical material (inter alia back packs, compression bandages)
• Diesel and gasoline*
• 10 tons AdBlue*
• 500 medical gauzes*
• MiG-29 spare parts*
• 7,944 man-portable anti-tank weapons RGW 90 Matador*

---

Military support to Ukraine in planning/in execution

Armoured fighting vehicles

• 110 LEOPARD 1 main battle tanks* (project jointly financed with Denmark)
• 20 infantry fighting vehicles MARDER*
• ammunition for LEOPARD 1*
• ammunition for MARDER*

Air defence

• 6 air defence system IRIS-T SLM* (before: 2)
• Iris-T SLM missiles*
• 12 launchers Iris-T SLS*
• Iris-T SLS missiles (from Bundeswehr and industry stocks*)
• 7 air surveillance radars TRML-4D* (before: 2)
• 18 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns GEPARD* (before: 3)
• 300.000 rounds of GEPARD ammunition

Artillery

• 26,350 projectiles 155mm* (before: 6,350)
• 18 wheeled self-propelled howitzers RCH 155*
• 16 self-propelled howitzer Zuzana 2* (project jointly financed with Denmark and Norway)

Military Engineering Capabilities

• 5 bridges for bridge-laying tanks BEAVER*
• 18 bridge-laying tanks BEAVER*
• 3 mobile and protected mine clearing systems*
• 40 mine clearing tanks WISENT 1*
• 1 armoured engineer vehicles DACHS*
• 3 heavy and medium bridge systems*

Protective and Special Equipment

• 71 reconnaissance drones VECTOR*
• 121 reconnaissance drones* (before: 10
• 10 unmanned surface vessels*
• 40 ground surveillance radars*
• 3 drone sensors*
• 1 Satcom surveillance system*
• 2000 portable light systems*
• 8 mobile antenna mast systems*
• 5 mobile reconnaissance systems (on vehicles) *
• 370 border protection vehicles*
• vehicle decontamination system
• 11 communications electronic scanner/jammer systems*

Logistics

• 12 tank transporter tractor M1070 Oshkosh* (before: 1)
• 30 tank trucks (water/fuel)*
• 78 truck tractor trains and 86 semi-trailers*
• 3 load-handling trucks 8x6 with 8 roll of containers*
• 7 tracked and remote controlled infantry vehicles for support tasks*
• 73 heavy duty trailer trucks 8x8 HX81 and 78 semi-trailers*
• 2 tractors and 4 trailers*
• 10 protected vehicles*
• 108 trucks Zetros*

Combat Readiness and Survivability

• 13 ambulances*
• continuing deliveries of medical material*
• 100 machine guns MG5*
• 100 grenade launchers GMG*
• 11,000 group module rations
• 40,000 first aid kits*
• 17 mobile heating systems*
• 132,480 rounds ammunition 40mm for grenade launchers*
• field hospital (role 2)*
• 5,032 man-portable anti-tank weapons*

Archive

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Russia had a chain of retarded persecution in just these couple days:

Dude stabbed his drinking buddies in a squabble and judge gave him a lighter sentence after he said that they were criticizing "SMO", men he stabbed got fined for "discreditation" (one of them in serious condition). He only got 2 years or so, which is far less than a repeated "discreditation" of Russian army would net you.
(can't find the article now among plethora of other stabbings, sadly)

Woman in Moscow was stopped by traffic police to be a witness as they filed a protocol for extremism over a license plate with white-blue-white flag to another woman... just to find out she had such a flag as well, so they accused her of extremism as well.
Thing is, it's just a normal Russian flag on the old license plate (they all have it) where red got washed out, but police doesn't care.
https://www.gazeta.ru/auto/news/2023/05/24/20509964.shtml

Farmer in Russia wrote "I'M RUSSIAN" in the field using his tractor, then posted drone footage of it on the web. MVD started investigating him for using said drone, which was outlawed, and is likely to face a fine over his retarded patriotic fervor.

https://ria.ru/20230524/fermer-1873882024.html

To sum it up, these are retarded times we live in. Retarded laws lead to their abuse by the ones who's supposed to enforce it, and even more retarded situations.
You think USA is a clown world, this isn't much different. You live in Huxley, we live in Orwell.

 

[Not At All A Lizard]

I hope the Russians laugh at retards too

 

[Suck the Cock]

Copeied from the Russia thread:
View attachment 5134746

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/ukraine-krieg-die-aktuelle-lage-im-live-ticker-83726300.bild.html#646df223f919533b00acc8f5

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/7LwL7#646df223f919533b00acc8f5

https://archive.is/kXhJZ

Also from about a week ago in that thread:
View attachment 5118838

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/05/09/ukraine-has-what-it-needs-to-successfully-retake-territory-us-state-secretary-blinken/

https://archive.ph/Rp5cT

If both parties are saying the Russians have exhausted themselves, and the offensive is coming whenever the time is right, it must take a hell of a lot of chutspah to claim both sides are propaganda and Russia is definitely still winning. I wish I could have that sort of blind confidence.

On a personal level, my understanding is that Ukraine is trying to delay any decisive action as much as possible, because they know if they keep playing up the underdog narrative they have a better chance of winning. Both from Russians confidently attacking into the meatgrinder and more gibs from NATO. They could have counterattacked and won the propaganda war, but it wasn't worth risking the actual war to do so. This has less concrete evidence but it seems to fit their behavior and statements:
(screenshot from Russia thread, highlight is mine)

 

[MS Paint Gigachad]

If both parties are saying the Russians have exhausted themselves, and the offensive is coming whenever the time is right, it must take a hell of a lot of chutspah to claim both sides are propaganda and Russia is definitely still winning. I wish I could have that sort of blind confidence.

Except they will, lol. Muh Sun Tzu. Muh maskirovka. Muh masterplan. Besides, shouldnt the holhols be equally exhausted? Therefore when a weaker exhausted force (the holhols) meets a stronger exhausted force (Z), the weaker exhausted force will be defeated, and the counterattack will fail. Besides,

(original post was made prior to the kharkiv offensive, when we thought they'd attack kherson instead)

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

On a personal level, my understanding is that Ukraine is trying to delay any decisive action as much as possible, because they know if they keep playing up the underdog narrative they have a better chance of winning.

I've been wondering if they will delay until they get all those Abrams that are being sent over. If they delay until the fall they will have lots more tanks and a lot more NATO-trained infantry. But that also gives Russia time to further bulk up their defenses. Tough call. So much behind the scenes stuff going on it's hard to even speculate.

 

[Ghostse]

I've been wondering if they will delay until they get all those Abrams that are being sent over. If they delay until the fall they will have lots more tanks and a lot more NATO-trained infantry. But that also gives Russia time to further bulk up their defenses. Tough call. So much behind the scenes stuff going on it's hard to even speculate.

The wonking I saw was Ukraine is holding back the western armor push until August/September. In addition to giving them more time to train and prepare to support a thrust, (and to try to guilt NATO into giving them more ammo/hulls) much like 2022 going late in the year gives Russia minimum time to counter attack.

The US was apparently all but forcing them to make a move in May/June, but the Yooks are using the Thug Shaker debacle to argue that they have to review all plans for security and Russia countermoves now their battle planning was leaked via a retard on discord.

I think Yook Command is really feeling the pressure on this one. There is no way they live up to the Kharkiv blowout, but if their counter attack doesn't get serious results or fizzles, they odds they are going to be strong-armed to the peace table and give up the Donbas/Crimea goes way up. If they do pull off something huge like liberate Maruipol and isolate Crimea, they can probably count on NATO backing until the 1992 borders are reestablished. So I bet there is some performance anxiety going on.

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

The wonking I saw was Ukraine is holding back the western armor push until August/September. In addition to giving them more time to train and prepare to support a thrust, (and to try to guilt NATO into giving them more ammo/hulls) much like 2022 going late in the year gives Russia minimum time to counter attack.

The US was apparently all but forcing them to make a move in May/June, but the Yooks are using the Thug Shaker debacle to argue that they have to review all plans for security and Russia countermoves now their battle planning was leaked via a retard on discord.

I think Yook Command is really feeling the pressure on this one. There is no way they live up to the Kharkiv blowout, but if their counter attack doesn't get serious results or fizzles, they odds they are going to be strong-armed to the peace table and give up the Donbas/Crimea goes way up. If they do pull off something huge like liberate Maruipol and isolate Crimea, they can probably count on NATO backing until the 1992 borders are reestablished. So I bet there is some performance anxiety going on.

I honestly don't see any way the West backs down so long as Putin is alive and in charge. Maybe if the invasion of Taiwan kicks off and all hands are needed on deck in the Pacific. Until Putin is gone, at most it becomes a frozen conflict. Putin is just too toxic, even if Trump is elected and tries to 'deal' with him. Trying to 'deal' with Putin at this point would embarrass too many countries and leaders, NATO and otherwise. Putin might think he can ride it out like Assad, but I think he's too far gone.

 

[Snekposter]

The cope thread is still huffing the propaganda facts about Kinzal. Just look at my profile page.

I'm gonna need both Risitas and J. Jonah Jameson for delusions of this level.

But man, hilarious seeing Russia be on the other side of "disgruntled citizens getting supplied with weapons by a foreign power and turned loose inside" coin.

It is weird seeing Ukrainians back a bunch of anti-Putin Russian nationalists. War really does make for strange bedfellows.

I honestly don't see any way the West backs down so long as Putin is alive and in charge. Maybe if the invasion of Taiwan kicks off and all hands are needed on deck in the Pacific. Until Putin is gone, at most it becomes a frozen conflict. Putin is just too toxic, even if Trump is elected and tries to 'deal' with him. Trying to 'deal' with Putin at this point would embarrass too many countries and leaders, NATO and otherwise. Putin might think he can ride it out like Assad, but I think he's too far gone.

Considering Trump's stance with Russia was "You stay on that side of the line, and we'll stay on this side, and if you put a toe across it I'll grab a sledgehammer same as you would if we did" no way is he cutting a deal with Putin. Not after Europe thumbed their noses at him when he warned them about their dependence on Russian fossil fuel. He'd probably ask Ukraine to hand him a shopping list and tell the military to hand over everything practical on it. Why? Well, in that case he could watch and laugh as Europe fumbles around and admit they're incapable of even trying to match that as he mocks them for their lack of military preparedness. Both Putin and Europe get put in their place. Its the perfect Trump move.

 

[Netizennameless]

I honestly don't see any way the West backs down so long as Putin is alive and in charge.

It makes too much sense from a western point of view. I've said it before, but Ukrainian men are motivated to fight in this war and will die to defend their country. The US benefits greatly from this because we get the economic benefits of a war for the defense industry without actually sacrificing American lives to do so. Unlike some shitty war of conquest, Ukraine is defending itself from a larger aggressor nation. We're just giving them the tools to do so and emptying out our soon-to-expire stockpiles of weapons while we do it.

Maybe if the invasion of Taiwan kicks off and all hands are needed on deck in the Pacific. Until Putin is gone, at most it becomes a frozen conflict. Putin is just too toxic, even if Trump is elected and tries to 'deal' with him. Trying to 'deal' with Putin at this point would embarrass too many countries and leaders, NATO and otherwise. Putin might think he can ride it out like Assad, but I think he's too far gone.

I think the invasion of Taiwan would not impact the Ukraine aid. They are entirely different theaters of war, and the war over Taiwan would primarily be fought with the Air Force and Navy.

 

[draggs]

View attachment 5135307
I'm gonna need both Risitas and J. Jonah Jameson for delusions of this level.

It is weird seeing Ukrainians back a bunch of anti-Putin Russian nationalists. War really does make for strange bedfellows.

Considering Trump's stance with Russia was "You stay on that side of the line, and we'll stay on this side, and if you put a toe across it I'll grab a sledgehammer same as you would if we did" no way is he cutting a deal with Putin. Not after Europe thumbed their noses at him when he warned them about their dependence on Russian fossil fuel. He'd probably ask Ukraine to hand him a shopping list and tell the military to hand over everything practical on it. Why? Well, in that case he could watch and laugh as Europe fumbles around and admit they're incapable of even trying to match that as he mocks them for their lack of military preparedness. Both Putin and Europe get put in their place. Its the perfect Trump move.

Lol I've been seeing vatniggers all over the place today sperging at Prigozhin because he took all the credit, in his latest interview, for 'winning' Bakhmut. And for saying that Ukraine now has a huge army experienced with both Russian and Western weapons that didn't exist before Putin invaded 'to demilitarize Ukraine.' Vatnigger internet is increasingly assmad at Prigozhin

The funniest part of this is that the vatniggers are now saying the same thing the other side was saying for months: Wagner suffered horrible losses for small advances that only happened because of the regular Russian army artillery backing them up

 

[Uranus Pink]

@Snekposter People on both sides intentionally forgotten Trump was the first POTUS who came to Ukraine's aid by arming and training them during his administration. Pro-Ukraine Biden supporters like Spacebattles and /NCD done to obfuscate the minor details of Obama giving Putin the approval to attack Ukraine as long as Putin waited until after the U.S. presidential election. Pro-Putin and anti-Biden side been doing it on the assumption Trump will be like a democrat to cut all aid to Ukraine, force allies to do the same and force the Ukrainians to accept their country being dismembered again by Russia. And to kick out Eastern European NATO member countries as they're property all but in name to Russia and permanently under Russian sphere of influence.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Lol I've been seeing vatniggers all over the place today sperging at Prigozhin because he took all the credit, in his latest interview, for 'winning' Bakhmut. And for saying that Ukraine now has a huge army experienced with both Russian and Western weapons that didn't exist before Putin invaded 'to demilitarize Ukraine.' Vatnigger internet is increasingly assmad at Prigozhin

The funniest part of this is that the vatniggers are now saying the same thing the other side was saying for months: Wagner suffered horrible losses for small advances that only happened because of the regular Russian army artillery backing them up

Prigozhin is setting things up so he doesn't get the blame when the boot lands. If the Ukrainians wreck the Russian Armies shit, he'll be able to say "wasn't me, I even warned the idiots ahead of time!"

 

[draggs]

Why is the governor of Belgorod sperging about calling up the militia lol

Russia is so much of your stuff and logistics tied up in Ookraine that you can't move a few thousand men to Belgorod and clean that shit up

Russia what doing?

 

[Uranus Pink]

Prigozhin is setting things up so he doesn't get the blame when the boot lands. If the Ukrainians wreck the Russian Armies shit, he'll be able to say "wasn't me, I even warned the idiots ahead of time!"

Playing Devil Advocate for a moment, Prigozhin and Wagner are in the position they really do need to get the fuck out of the front. Due to how ragged the Wagner been worn out, and needing to rest, recoup and regenerate. Prigozhin using his predicament to publicly give the Russian military exactly what it wanted good and hard while relieving himself of a now very unfriendly (political) grenade.

Edit: reinserting quote tags as TOR ate them earlier.

 

[Ghostse]

I honestly don't see any way the West backs down so long as Putin is alive and in charge.

Not enough rainbows.
Currently Ukraine is demonstrating a willingness to fight and an ability to win*. If that latter part starts to sag and spiral to stalemate, the West is going to arm twist Ukraine to the negotiating table to get them to make a deal (See: Republic of Vietnam.). Its one thing to convince the Eurocuck serfs they need to pay more to heat their houses this winter because of glorious victory in Ukraine that you can sell with roads full of Russian armor smoldering in a minefield, its another when the line doesn't move despite getting better weapons than NATO nations give to better allies than Ukraine.


*Holding a town for 9 months against an opponent 4x your size who is throwing everything they have at it is going be classed a win.

Considering Trump's stance with Russia was "You stay on that side of the line, and we'll stay on this side, and if you put a toe across it I'll grab a sledgehammer same as you would if we did" no way is he cutting a deal with Putin.

@Snekposter People on both sides intentionally forgotten Trump was the first POTUS who came to Ukraine's aid by arming and training them during his administration. Pro-Ukraine Biden supporters like Spacebattles and /NCD done to obfuscate the minor details of Obama giving Putin the approval to attack Ukraine as long as Putin waited until after the U.S. presidential election. Pro-Putin and anti-Biden side been doing it on the assumption Trump will be like a democrat to cut all aid to Ukraine, force allies to do the same and force the Ukrainians to accept their country being dismembered again by Russia. And to kick out Eastern European NATO member countries as they're property all but in name to Russia and permanently under Russian sphere of influence.

Trump was not perfect, but he was the perfect counter to posturing bullies like Xi and Putin. He seemed just crazy enough to actually call their bluster and respond to escalations with ones of his own instead of cucking in "the interests of peace".

Obama was a pantywaisted cuck that Putin smelled from 10 miles away, and figured Biden would be more of the same.

Prigozhin is setting things up so he doesn't get the blame when the boot lands. If the Ukrainians wreck the Russian Armies shit, he'll be able to say "wasn't me, I even warned the idiots ahead of time!"

Chef is making a play to succeed Putin, i guarantee it. There is a reason he is staying tucked in with his private army.

Why is the governor of Belgorod sperging about calling up the militia lol

Russia is so much of your stuff and logistics tied up in Ookraine that you can't move a few thousand men to Belgorod and clean that shit up

Russia what doing?

Russian logistics are inflexible and slow to adapt. They can do incredible shit like move entire divisions the length of the country in days, but that moving between logistics hubs - all the ground work was done, you just had to load and route the trains.

Russia was not prepared for a bunch of wildin' slavs to be turned loose on the country side and doesn't have anything in place to support stopping them.

Additionally, from a purely military objective point of view, the Slav War Bands can't really do much. They can't take or hold territory, they lack heavy support so any vital installations aren't under threat,
If you don't care about the civilians/damage to civilian infrastructure, or the bad PR, they can pretty much be ignored.

 

[Snekposter]

the bad PR

Which is of course the entire problem with marauding bands in Russian territory. It makes Putin look weak and ineffectual, and calls into question his ability to take Ukraine if he can't even protect his own territory. They don't have to cause damage so long as they just look like they're causing damage.

 

[Ghostse]

Prigozhin is setting things up so he doesn't get the blame when the boot lands. If the Ukrainians wreck the Russian Armies shit, he'll be able to say "wasn't me, I even warned the idiots ahead of time!" Playing Devil Advocate for a moment, Prigozhin and Wagner are in the position they really do need to get the fuck out of the front. Due to how ragged the Wagner been worn out, and needing to rest, recoup and regenerate. Prigozhin using his predicament to publicly give the Russian military exactly what it wanted good and hard while relieving himself of a now very unfriendly (political) grenade.

From wonking I have seen about Wagner:

You need to remember there are two Wagners (and really 3 with the Prison Brigades). There is the 'core' of professional soldiers with SOF experience getting trained by retired SAS instructors and having their SOPs written by South African mercs, and then there is the moblik-tier rabble you use as guards and scouts so the majority of losses aren't absorbed by the core. This 2nd tier has its own levels, but if you are going to take losses you try to direct them there instead of to your main force.

Wagner's 'core' force, never overly large to begin with, is still largely intact. You've got your usual accumulation of casualties just due to warzone attrition, but they haven't gotten BTFO in any meaningful way. (Daily Reminder: The Wagnerites who were massacred in Syria were local militia and 2nd tiers who were nearing contract completion, not any 'core' members)

Wagner's "cushioning" force is what has been ground down and out. They are supposedly in very bad shape and have been for several months, because of the high-casualty tactics Wagner uses. Supposedly the 2nd tier was starting to get mutinous, which is why the Prison Brigades got created so command could calm them down.
Usually, local allied militia form the bullet sponges that protect the 2nd tier force from the worst of it, but the Donbros were getting sick of the losses incurred and started telling Wagner to go screw when they needed some guys to spot machine gun nests. They then used the lowest ability of 2nd tier, but had resolve-under-fire issues and as they tried to send the more skilled 2nd tier in, they got pushback from "I am not renewing my contract" to "I am going to frag the command tent if I think they're going to do that to me".

So Wagner is still very viable as a military force. Command is intact, supply is still good, the most trained and dangerous units are still intact. What is depleted is their cannon-fodder - which is going to severely limit Wagner's ability to conduct operations as they've gotten used to conducting them until it is replenished.

The only thing that has really degraded for Wagner is sustainability - if they started taking 'core' losses those would hurt, and their ability to not take them is greatly reduced at present.

Which is of course the entire problem with marauding bands in Russian territory. It makes Putin look weak and ineffectual, and calls into question his ability to take Ukraine if he can't even protect his own territory. They don't have to cause damage so long as they just look like they're causing damage.

Counter point: Makes him look weak for what audience? Do you think Russian state media is reporting on that other than "A bunch of yooknik supported traitors were BTFO by our powerful armed forces, see this poorly staged photo as proof. These acts of unchecked aggression are why we need to re-holomor Ukraine."
And do you think he give a fuck what the opinion of a EU/US blue checkmark is?

 

[Snekposter]

Counter point: Makes him look weak for what audience? Do you think Russian state media is reporting on that other than "A bunch of yooknik supported traitors were BTFO by our powerful armed forces, see this poorly staged photo as proof. These acts of unchecked aggression are why we need to re-holomor Ukraine."
And do you think he give a fuck what the opinion of a EU/US blue checkmark is?

And even in the USSR samizdat was a thing. The KGB weren't everywhere despite their claims, and the FSB is possibly even drunker, stupider, and lazier than they ever were. Go ask @Astro Galactic Megalul on how awe-inspiring the FSB's ability to keep him from shitposting is. Heck, you've got guys like Gulagu semi-openly pointing out Putin's human rights abuses. It doesn't matter if the state media is fellating Putin because word gets out despite that and despite them. Yeah, there's no end of vatniks eager to see hohol blood shed, but there's also plenty of other ones despairing at what Putin's made of their nation.