Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Jewthulhu]

Laws are for the serfs, and whoever ends up on Putin's shitlist. Wagner is by all means illegal, and Prigozhin is by definition a criminal.
Until recently Wagner existed to provide Kremlin with plausible deniability as they get up to some shady business in some foreign shitholes, it worked. But in Ukraine that facade was practically blown away, so it's not clear to me what's even the point anymore. It's not even an open secret anymore, I don't even know what to call it at this point.

I mean, yeah. I'm just saying he's poking the people that allow him to exist and giving them a plethora of excuses to get rid of him when he's no longer necessary. Though perhaps @Ghostse is right and he's got oligarchic support and is playing it safer than I realized while setting himself up to replace Putin.

 

[Blatant hypocrite]

At the rate he's going, he either can't see more than 2 days into the future, has a major deathwish, or has a 19D chess plan to storm the Kremlin, kill Putin, and declare himself Tsar before the "special military operation" is over.

 

[AgendaPoster]

Happy to see that Ukrainians are doing what I suggested they should many months ago, and attacking inside Russian territory, including in Moscow's rich suburbs.
Civilians of one nation cannot remain safe and isolated from the horrors that their army is inflicting just 300kms away.
While I prefer no civilian (or military, tbh) die, sometimes to reach the less death stage you gotta first break the eggs for the omelet.
Those drone attacks though, need better preparing, and more stealth. How come they were shot by AA? Means they were not flew properly or the "pilot" was too daring/had no idea where AA is.
Wouldn't it be better to just use smaller drones with grenades instead? Should be much more stealthy and far more dramatic. Only issue is that it would require Ukrainians to infiltrate more, as they're shorter range. Or am I wrong?

 

[mindlessobserver]

Russians be like "noooooo, you can't drone bomb OUR cities like we drone bomb yours! That's TERRORISM!"

 

[Ghostse]

I mean, yeah. I'm just saying he's poking the people that allow him to exist and giving them a plethora of excuses to get rid of him when he's no longer necessary.

NOTE: I'm going to be addressing things like "Wagner took Bahkmut" like they are whole-truth. We all know its not and the reality is much more complicated, but that is the sellable story so I'm not going to equivocate.

You aren't wrong, but as long as he keeps winning he is setting himself as the "Speaking truth to power as a loyal warrior, the man who tells the emperor he's naked". He accomplished what the regular army couldn't, he made sure everyone knows it, so as long as he doesn't take a tumble he is a war hero who is trying to tell the out-of-touch desk generals how to win (and being "ignored"). Any challenges or misteps he's faced have been due to Russian Army incompetence.

No one likes the generals (there are exceptions like Matthis). Not civilians, not soldiers. They're safe targets to attack, and they are old men stuck in their ways, so the criticism is certain to be valid. And again, more importantly he's successfully taken a town the regular army couldn't. People love a winner.

If he was a bureaucrat, he'd have either had to tone it down or would have been shoved out a window long ago. But since he's safe with his private army and has multiple global locations he could run to for safety... even if KGB agents showed up to arrest him they aren't getting past the fence. Hell, they might just disappear.

Remember early 2000s Putin, riding horses shirtless and doing other manly things? Chef is trying to emulate that energy. So he's almost certainly got some serious backing if for no other reason than the powers that be aren't going to want an ambitious man to be closer to their rivals if he does pull something off.

Russians be like "noooooo, you can't drone bomb OUR cities like we drone bomb yours! That's TERRORISM!"

And before any vatnigs get all "What about 9/11", this is like-for-like. If America was crashing loaded civilian airliners into muslim cities WTC would have been like for like. Same reason no one gets pissy about the pentagon.

 

[Harbinger of Kali Yuga]

Remember early 2000s Putin, riding horses shirtless and doing other many things? Chef is trying to emulate that energy. So he's almost certainly got some serious backing if for no other reason than the powers that be aren't going to want an ambitious man to be closer to their rivals if he does pull something off.

This is an important thing to note because Russia culture sort of desires a "strongman" attitude for leadership and that shit was all propaganda kiddies unfamiliar with the Russian modus operandi to buy into and think "this guy is cool!" The problem is that masculinity is no longer celebrated in the west, so they're not innoculated against propaganda that utilizes it. If you want to know who has big designs in Russian politics, look who tries to act and talk tough.

 

[Scout Trooper]

You aren't wrong, but as long as he keeps winning he is setting himself as the "Speaking truth to power loyal as a general, the man who tells the emperor he's naked". He accomplished what the regular army couldn't, he made sure everyone knows it, so as long as he doesn't take a tumble he is a war hero who is trying to tell the out-of-touch desk generals how to win (and being "ignored"). Any challenges or misteps he's faced have been due to Russian Army incompetence.

No one likes the generals (there are exceptions like Matthis). Not civilians, not soldiers. They're safe targets to attack, and they are old men stuck in their ways, so the criticism is certain to be valid. And again, more importantly he's successfully taken a town the regular army couldn't. People love a winner.

If he was a bureaucrat, he'd have either had to tone it down or would have been shoved out a window long ago. But since he's safe with his private army and has multiple global locations he could run to for safety... even if KGB agents showed up to arrest him they aren't getting past the fence. Hell, they might just disappear.

Initially, I thought his criticism of the Army generals was Putin-sanctioned/supported as half scapegoating to direct the anger of the Russian people toward the Army leadership (as opposed to Putin) and half a public warning shot from Putin to his generals that he might hang them out to dry if they didn't start winning.

But now I'm not so sure how Putin-sanctioned that tantrum was.

https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-leader-criticizing-putin-because-didnt-get-reward-capturing-bakhmut-2023-5

• Wagner Group chief Prigozhin criticized Putin after not receiving a reward for capturing Bakhmut.
• Prigozhin has feuded with both Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding Bakhmut, ISW said.
• Russian state media has effectively banned reporting on Wagner, Prigozhin said.

This private information is unavailable to guests due to policies enforced by third-parties.

 

[CuzinEd]

Russians be like "noooooo, you can't drone bomb OUR cities like we drone bomb yours! That's TERRORISM!"

That's one of things I have found funny through this whole war. That the Russians get all upset and start jumping around calling the Ukrainians terrorist when they attack them back.

Russia: Attacks Ukraine

Ukraine: Attacks Russia back

Russia: Surprised Pikachu face

 

[mindlessobserver]

Putin is having to balance alot of competing power structures right now. The jockeying to succeed him is probably in full swing, and he can't risk one of the factions deciding its better for their position if the Polonium ends up in Putin's tea this time, just to speed things along while they have the advantage. The conquest of Ukraine was supposed to be the Cap Stone of Putin's career in government. The crown jewel of his legacy if you will. From that position he could pretty much organize a succession for what comes after him at will. Instead he's stuck in a quagmire, and he's no spring spring chicken at 71. Even if all the rumors of his health issues are bunk, he only has a few years left before something gets him. And everyone around him knows it, which means they are sharpening the knives. Nobody has a clear picture who will take power after Putin is gone and that is dangerous for the court politics in the Kremlin.

 

[MG-34]

Russians be like "noooooo, you can't drone bomb OUR cities like we drone bomb yours! That's TERRORISM!"

These are the same bunch that were cheering Russian soldiers torturing POWs on video then crying like faggots when a Ukrainian fireteam wasted a Russian squad for attempting to feign a surrender and wounding a Ukrainian cameraman during the capture process. To quote Sargon, they act like a bunch of white niggers. That being said I'd rather see them IED a few more Duginas or Russian Generals or a Bomber on a tarmac somewhere.

 

[No. 7 cat]

I'm kinda shocked Prigozhin gets to sperg out and badmouth MoD, Shoigu personally and entire generals, all the while rolling around with his gang in a foreign country, killing citizens of another country that we aren't even technically at war with (according to Kremlin).
Officially he's fucking nothing, a nobody, yet acts like he's a big deal. Really interested to see how this ends for this particular individual (who deserves life in prison, at the very least).

Encouraging cut throat rivalry among underlings is Dictator Standard Operating Procedure. Putin has been peerless in removing viable rivals whether the early post Soviet phenomenon of political generals, politicians (bought off with joke jobs, dead or in jail), oligarch and KGB rivals or critics (dead or irrelevant). Prigozhin's Wagner PMC breaks Russian law and while Shoigu has his own 'Patriot' PMC, laws in dictatorships are a matter of context, personal relations to the ruler, and circumstance. Caterer and former career criminal and pimp of juveniles Prigozhin probably knows his future is Putin or a small cell or muddy hole in the ground, same with glowie Girkin the Malaysian Airways terrorist, while Shoigu probably knows his mediocrity and loyalty to Putin is all he has. I don't think any are remotely anti-Putin. However as the repute of Putin and his country are now mud and will remain mud (the vast influence and soft power Russia had in Europe is basically gone and I suspect the burger shills are a social media thing reliant on the poorly educated, economically marginal people idolising some scammers), I cannot see how it will end well for any of them, whether Putin or his minions.

 

[Ghostse]

Putin is having to balance alot of competing power structures right now. The jockeying to succeed him is probably in full swing, and he can't risk one of the factions deciding its better for their position if the Polonium ends up in Putin's tea this time, just to speed things along while they have the advantage. The conquest of Ukraine was supposed to be the Cap Stone of Putin's career in government. The crown jewel of his legacy if you will. From that position he could pretty much organize a succession for what comes after him at will. Instead he's stuck in a quagmire, and he's no spring spring chicken at 71. Even if all the rumors of his health issues are bunk, he only has a few years left before something gets him. And everyone around him knows it, which means they are sharpening the knives. Nobody has a clear picture who will take power after Putin is gone and that is dangerous for the court politics in the Kremlin.

Putin doesn't need to fear any internal betrayals. Any talk of that is straight vatnik-strength cope. No one is going step to the King while he breathes.
Half because Putin has ensured no one is strong enough, half because the other crabs in the bucket wouldn't let them get away with it even if they managed to pull it off.

Yes, the CIA can make deals but the Oligarchs have literal billions, and Putin is the man they want running the country.
Remember even if Ukraine tomorrow surprise rolled out 5000 M1A20 "Commiefucker" Abrams tanks and just curb stomped every single Russian unit on Ukrainian soil, Russia would only lose their Ukrainian territory and still face zero credible external threats to its existence as a nation. Russia doesn't need a leader to fight the West. They need a leader who can oppress the population, keep them ground down, destroy any credible opposition, and convince them he's fighting the west.

You're right that Putin wanted the reconquista of Ukraine - annexation of the Donbros & Crimea and the rest of the country returned to 2000's russian puppet. I honestly don't think if things had gone as planned that he was done and am pretty sure Georgia and any former soviet territory that wasn't in NATO or 100% Muscaboo was fair game - so Azerbijan/Armenia might have been next.
I think the only unaligned country that would be safe would be Mongolia, as it was too shitty for even Stalin to want it + the only country that might potentially actually invade Russia would be China, so no need to add more hostile borders for that backwater.

But he doesn't have any real heirs apparent. He's got his #2 who is sort of in line for the slot and proven his maliability, but who knows if he'll get it. Or even want it - he's no young buck himself, and might like being in the copilots seat.

 

[draggs]

I think if Ukraine rolled out 5000 futuristic Abrams from the Stargate, Russia might have a bit of a credible external threat to its existence as a nation. Or at least the Russian government would

 

[Ghostse]

I think if Ukraine rolled out 5000 futuristic Abrams from the Stargate, Russia might have a bit of a credible external threat to its existence as a nation. Or at least the Russian government would

Any hardware Ukraine gets is going to come with extreme "not for use on Russian territory. Like actual Russia, not thier gay Donbas land grab" provisions, that's why as gloriously hilarious as their SMO ending with a Moscow Feint would be, it'll never happen.

Now, in our vatnigger-level fantasy scenario, if every single military unit in Ukraine was overrun in 24 hours the current government would like be facing some serious INTERNAL threats.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

The US tried to do kind of the same thing Blackwater but it didn't work so well. The Blackwater mercs were basically killing civilians and some other stuff. The US government tried to deny it it because Blackwater is a private company. But the US government was the one paying them. They were hired by the government. So it got back to the US government anyway.

Blackwater also had the issue that the US government tried to pin them for shit the government ordered that turned bad.
It didn't help that every derka-derka jihadi sandrat thought they could somehow get away with attacking Blackwater with less retaliation than they would have gotten from attacking a uniformed US military personnel...

That and the legitimate mistake that was the Nafaf shootout.

This is an important thing to note because Russia culture sort of desires a "strongman" attitude for leadership and that shit was all propaganda kiddies unfamiliar with the Russian modus operandi to buy into and think "this guy is cool!" The problem is that masculinity is no longer celebrated in the west, so they're not innoculated against propaganda that utilizes it. If you want to know who has big designs in Russian politics, look who tries to act and talk tough.

TBF I blame the West for not celebrating masculinity enough as much as I do gullible Western young men falling for strong-man propaganda.

Even though IRL Putin is a flabby manlet who hides behind a desk.

 

[draggs]

Any hardware Ukraine gets is going to come with extreme "not for use on Russian territory. Like actual Russia, not thier gay Donbas land grab" provisions, that's why as gloriously hilarious as their SMO ending with a Moscow Feint would be, it'll never happen.

Now, in our vatnigger-level fantasy scenario, if every single military unit in Ukraine was overrun in 24 hours the current government would like be facing some serious INTERNAL threats.

Well there is no M1A20 so I was guessing it's from the future

And once Ukraine has 5000 it will announce its new alliance with the soon to be Greater Roumania and have all the fuel it needs for them

 

[Ghostse]

Well there is no M1A20 so I was guessing it's from the future

I was making up some ridiculous true wunderwaffen as a for-instance (as I hoped designating it with the 'Commiefucker' moniker would convey).
My point being that firstly Russia could lose every soldier and piece of equipment currently in Ukraine and be completely fine, and secondly any advanced weapons Ukraine gets will be under usage restrictions. So its not like even if Russia just got rolled all the way back to Russia in some miraculous blitzkrieg tomorrow that Russia is under any sort of existential threat from outside forces as Ukraine wouldn't be permitted to carry the fight inside Russia even if Zelensky decided to gamble there wouldn't be a nuclear response if he did so.

The only threat to the current order in Russia comes from inside Russia. Because of there is no threat from outside Russia, the Oligarchs & other powers that be will continue to back the man best able to prevent and stomp down internal threats to the current political order, and that is Putin.

And since we're unlikely to see an embarrassing complete roll up of Russian forces and more of a slow methodical reclaiming of territory, it is very unlikely that those internal threats will actually emerge or ammount to anything, there is about zero chance Putin dies any way other than natural causes while being the President of Russia. And its sort of embarrassing when people act like Putin'll get coup'd if Donetsk falls or Crimea is retaken.

 

[Harbinger of Kali Yuga]

And since we're unlikely to see an embarrassing complete roll up of Russian forces and more of a slow methodical reclaiming of territory, it is very unlikely that those internal threats will actually emerge or ammount to anything, there is about zero chance Putin dies any way other than natural causes while being the President of Russia. And its sort of embarrassing when people act like Putin'll get coup'd if Donetsk falls or Crimea is retaken.

Not necessarily. Failure of the war in Russia would show Putin is weak and more than likely people will move on him, with support. Going to war and only losing is a disaster for Russian leaders. That is why underlings underneath who "failed him" die, because "they" made him look weak. Maybe. Depends what they can get the Russian people to believe. Russians are more likely to be less upset about going to war and more upset about just losing. And it's losing with nothing to gain and many people dead and unpopular conscriptions that could do him in.

 

[Ghostse]

Not necessarily. Failure of the war in Russia would show Putin is weak and more than likely people will move on him, with support. Going to war and only losing is a disaster for Russian leaders. That is why underlings underneath who "failed him" die, because "they" made him look weak. Maybe. Depends what they can get the Russian people to believe. Russians are more likely to be less upset about going to war and more upset about just losing. And it's losing with nothing to gain and many people dead and unpopular conscriptions that could do him in.

You aren't wrong that if completely defeated in Ukraine, Putin would be at his weakest, but he still won't have any realistic challengers to his authority.
He will blame the failure on the Military Leadership and Underlings, and he's got enough low cunning it will work - again. He'll claim the US used the CIA to undermine the Russian forces sort of how he did in the wake of the 2013 protests that lost Russia their puppeteer control on Ukraine. He'll point out Russia Stronk and that NATO doesn't dare cross their border, and how they'll never rest until the Russian Empire is at its old boundaries and shit about spheres of influence, and because someone, somewhere needs hydrocarbons Russia will continue along more or less as normal until he dies in his sleep or there is possibly some freak occurrence like a dark horse assassin.

And Putin has ensured there is no one with enough power, will, or support to supplant him. Anyone who tries will be stopped by any other power players, or if successful, immediately stabbed in the back by them. And again, the only threats to the political order are internal. So as long as Putin doesn't start going on Stalin paranoia purges of the elites, the Oligarchs aren't going back anyone who will upset the apple cart.

I mean never say never, but the only thing that would get that to happen would be some sort of serious military action inside Russia itself, and no one is going Global Thermonuclear War over removing Putin.

 

[CuzinEd]

These are the same bunch that were cheering Russian soldiers torturing POWs on video then crying like faggots when a Ukrainian fireteam wasted a Russian squad for attempting to feign a surrender and wounding a Ukrainian cameraman during the capture process. To quote Sargon, they act like a bunch of white niggers. That being said I'd rather see them IED a few more Duginas or Russian Generals or a Bomber on a tarmac somewhere.

The Russians have been acting like bitches for a while now. Crying when the Ukrainians attack them. Crying about the weapons being given to Ukraine. Though they know how the proxy war game is played because they started it back in Korea and Vietnam. Every time the Ukrainians get a new weapon the Russians complain about it. OMG guyz the Russians are going to use nukes now this totally an escalation. The US never threatened to nuke the Soviet Union when they sent Mig-15's to Korea with Soviet pilots. The same thing with Vietnam. The Soviets dumped all kinds of weapons into Vietnam as well as MiG-21's also with Soviet pilots. The Soviets never threatened to nuke the US because of the weapons the US was giving to the Mujahideen. The Russians calling the Ukrainians terrorist for doing the exact same thing they did is laughable.

The Russians should be expecting the Ukrainians to attack them in some way.

Blackwater also had the issue that the US government tried to pin them for shit the government ordered that turned bad.
It didn't help that every derka-derka jihadi sandrat thought they could somehow get away with attacking Blackwater with less retaliation than they would have gotten from attacking a uniformed US military personnel...

That and the legitimate mistake that was the Nafaf shootout.


TBF I blame the West for not celebrating masculinity enough as much as I do gullible Western young men falling for strong-man propaganda.

Even though IRL Putin is a flabby manlet who hides behind a desk.

The Russians will probably hide behind Wagner. They will get blamed for a lot of the bad things that happened, If there was a war crime it will be Wagner.