Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Ghostse]

The Russians calling the Ukrainians terrorist for doing the exact same thing they did is laughable.

No need to go that far back. They have been funneling arms to the Donbros since 2014, and Russian military advisors and volunteers have been helping them. Sometimes a little too much; Pepperidge farm remembers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

So yeah, its hilarious to hear them whine now that Ukraine is getting supplied with weapons and Ukraine is arming anti-government groups and sending them over the border to raise hell.

Again, Ukraine was a corrupt slavic shithole. Russia could have just softpowered their way back into control, and given Ukraine whatever it was they wanted to stop talking about NATO. And Russia wouldn't have had to take that step if they hadn't been little bitches about Ukraine signing a trade agreement with the EU and let it happen instead of trying to blockade Ukraine - their puppet would still be dictatoring it up if they hadn't done that.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Though they know how the proxy war game is played because they started it back in Korea and Vietnam

Fuck, they did it here with "DNR" and "LNR", but everyone seems to forget.

 

[draggs]

I was making up some ridiculous true wunderwaffen as a for-instance (as I hoped designating it with the 'Commiefucker' moniker would convey).
My point being that firstly Russia could lose every soldier and piece of equipment currently in Ukraine and be completely fine, and secondly any advanced weapons Ukraine gets will be under usage restrictions. So its not like even if Russia just got rolled all the way back to Russia in some miraculous blitzkrieg tomorrow that Russia is under any sort of existential threat from outside forces as Ukraine wouldn't be permitted to carry the fight inside Russia even if Zelensky decided to gamble there wouldn't be a nuclear response if he did so.

The only threat to the current order in Russia comes from inside Russia. Because of there is no threat from outside Russia, the Oligarchs & other powers that be will continue to back the man best able to prevent and stomp down internal threats to the current political order, and that is Putin.

And since we're unlikely to see an embarrassing complete roll up of Russian forces and more of a slow methodical reclaiming of territory, it is very unlikely that those internal threats will actually emerge or ammount to anything, there is about zero chance Putin dies any way other than natural causes while being the President of Russia. And its sort of embarrassing when people act like Putin'll get coup'd if Donetsk falls or Crimea is retaken.

That's why Ukraine will switch to getting its supplies from gypsies soon as it gets the 5000 futuretonks. Ukraine won't need to care about usage restrictions then, it will have more shit than it knows what to do with. Of course it will have to overlook a certain amount of random stuff and Ukrainian women suddenly showing up in gypsy caravans, but that's just the cost of doing business

 

[No. 7 cat]

I honestly don't think if things had gone as planned that he was done and am pretty sure Georgia and any former soviet territory that wasn't in NATO or 100% Muscaboo was fair game - so Azerbijan/Armenia might have been next.

Garibashvili is a loyal boy to Putin who whinges to the EU that he shouldn't be treated like the puppet he is when he colludes in the Russian occupation of over one fifth (Russian forces and their 'seperatist auxiliaries' like to move ceasefire lines). Given one of the oldest foreign contingents in Ukraine is the Georgian Legion, any definitive defeat of Russia in Ukraine will see them do a homecoming tour (they were founded in the Donbass but freeing their own country is surely the prime objective). Anyhow, trying to take more when Georgia has their own Yanukovich would seem silly, but then Putin invaded Ukraine and when the Spetnaz attacked the Afghan Presidential palace in 1979, the President Amin's first thought was to call Moscow to help him against this evidently US inspired attack. Only near his end did he realise what was happening. So, maybe. Azerbaijan is oil rich, efficiently run and a large effectively led army whose use of weapons like old Soviet transport bi-planes sent into Ngorno-Karabakh to draw the fire of the S-300s plus the best of Baykar's and Israeli drone tech (recall two that the recent Israeli drone strike on Iran was from there) rekted Armenian Arsakh ground forces, and is of no cultural comparable significance (compared to Kyiv/Kiev or Crimea, their sunny Hellas and naval base). Yerevan has very heavy Russian influence including many Russian companies. While their PM has seen the recent weakness of Russia and is trying to follow his own line a little, it's still within the Russian orbit. Yet that could've been said of the Communist ruled Afghanistan the Soviets invaded. Who honestly knows?

 

[Ghostse]

Anyhow, trying to take more when Georgia has their own Yanukovich would seem silly, but then Putin invaded Ukraine

Georgia has been making EU-noises. Ukraine doing that presaged Russia trying to do economic war that resulted in Euromaidan. So I could see Russia formerly re-integrating Georgia.

Azerbaijan is oil rich, efficiently run and a large effectively led army

THose last two bits are only on a comparative scale (and because they are getting Turkish support). The first part is why Russia might try to do more fuck-fuck games to either annex them directly or just try to steal their suzerainty from Turkey. In any event, as I said, while Ukraine would have been the capstone in Putin's career, I don't think he would have been done. Not by a long shot.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

Luka is nearly 70, and living a former Soviet Republic dictator life style. Nigga really doesn't need any KGB involvement for there to be health issues.

Its the timing that's throwing people off. Its too convenient. Dude goes to visit Putin in Russia, comes back, and needs a hospital? There's no way that doesn't raise people's eyebrows, even if its nothing.

The first part is why Russia might try to do more fuck-fuck games to either annex them directly or just try to steal their suzerainty from Turkey.

Russia can't afford to mess with Azerbaijan. Turkey is too heavily involved there, and Russia has suddenly found themselves very reliant on the Turks as of late. Not to mention that Turkey is an actual NATO member.

 

[East_Clintwood]

Its the timing that's throwing people off. Its too convenient. Dude goes to visit Putin in Russia, comes back, and needs a hospital? There's no way that doesn't raise people's eyebrows, even if its nothing.

Especially given the weirdness around the death of the Belarusian Foreign Minister not too long ago as well.

 

[Snekposter]

THose last two bits are only on a comparative scale (and because they are getting Turkish support). The first part is why Russia might try to do more fuck-fuck games to either annex them directly or just try to steal their suzerainty from Turkey. In any event, as I said, while Ukraine would have been the capstone in Putin's career, I don't think he would have been done. Not by a long shot.

Man, its funny how Russia wound up surrounded by nations that all hate its guts.

 

[CuzinEd]

No need to go that far back. They have been funneling arms to the Donbros since 2014, and Russian military advisors and volunteers have been helping them. Sometimes a little too much; Pepperidge farm remembers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

So yeah, its hilarious to hear them whine now that Ukraine is getting supplied with weapons and Ukraine is arming anti-government groups and sending them over the border to raise hell.

Again, Ukraine was a corrupt slavic shithole. Russia could have just softpowered their way back into control, and given Ukraine whatever it was they wanted to stop talking about NATO. And Russia wouldn't have had to take that step if they hadn't been little bitches about Ukraine signing a trade agreement with the EU and let it happen instead of trying to blockade Ukraine - their puppet would still be dictatoring it up if they hadn't done that.

Fuck, they did it here with "DNR" and "LNR", but everyone seems to forget.

Dumping weapons into places has always been the norm for the proxy wars. Having to go back to Korea and Vietnam was done to make a point that the Russians did it first and then they got way more involved than the US has ever gotten involved in a proxy war against them. That is why I brought up the Soviets not just sending the MiG-15's and 21's but also the pilots. Everyone knows the North Korean and North Vietnamese pilots weren't that good. It was the Russian pilots in Korea that were mostly WW2 veterans and the pilots that were sent to Vietnam that were probably trained by those same pilots that flew in WW2 and in Korea. It would be like the US sending the F-16's to Ukraine and the pilots as well. That's what happened in the Korea and Vietnam and the US has never done that to my knowledge. The Russians were the ones that did those kinds of things. The US never did. Imagine if the US were to send F-16's to Ukraine and the pilots and told the Russians to just deal with it. There would be a huge shit storm over it.

 

[Ghostse]

Its the timing that's throwing people off. Its too convenient. Dude goes to visit Putin in Russia, comes back, and needs a hospital? There's no way that doesn't raise people's eyebrows, even if its nothing.

The timing is odd sure, but Luka hasn't done anything that even hints at him breaking ranks, or any hints of valid successor being courted by Moscow. Assad gets called for a meeting and is back in Syria pale and swollen? Yeah ok that's suspect. Russia's greatest ally? C'mon son.

Russia can't afford to mess with Azerbaijan. Turkey is too heavily involved there, and Russia has suddenly found themselves very reliant on the Turks as of late. Not to mention that Turkey is an actual NATO member.

again, this is in the imaginary world where the SMO had gone off as planned lol what plan envisioned and Ukraine had collapsed within 4 weeks and the Ukraine side of the war was limited to an insurgency and complaining by a worthless government-in-exile. In the current state of the world, yes, any Russian expansion plans are pretty much DOA, not the least of which is everyone is now ready for their shennanigans. Putin will be extremely fortunate if he gets to hold onto the 2014 gains at current, much less land-grab other nations.

Turkey is a NATO member but Azerbaijan isn't and they are currently distracted by Syria and also E-dog's own internal political war. Again, in the world where Kiev wasn't just a feint lol that shit still cracks me up every time and Ukraine is wholly occupied by Russia as the UN/EU responds by the precedented unleashing their strategic reserves of sternly worded condemnations, Russia would be more than capable of doing to Azerbaijan via Armenia exactly what they did in Ukraine or Ossentia, and solidify those gains before Turkey could adequately respond. They could even use their presence in Syria to stir up action there as a distraction.
But the way things turned out Russia cannot afford to piss off Turkey right now so that's off the table, correct.

That's what happened in the Korea and Vietnam and the US has never done that to my knowledge.

The US has never done that directly against the forces of a peer rival.

And I don't think there have been US pilots in foreign-flagged aircraft since WWII, but US has sent advisors and provided training & supplies for proxy-war participants.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

Russia's greatest ally?

Russia's greatest ally that has actively refused to do anything more than the bare minimum to support Russia in its greatest war since Afghanistan. You forgot that part.

again, this is in the imaginary world where the SMO had gone off as planned lol what plan envisioned and Ukraine had collapsed within 4 weeks and the Ukraine side of the war was limited to an insurgency and complaining by a worthless government-in-exile. In the current state of the world, yes, any Russian expansion plans are pretty much DOA, not the least of which is everyone is now ready for their shennanigans. Putin will be extremely fortunate if he gets to hold onto the 2014 gains at current, much less land-grab other nations.

Even in a hypothetical scenario where all of Ukraine fell, Russia would be too busy fighting the NATO funded insurgency to deal with Azerbaijan, and Turkey is a far more worthy adversary than Ukraine in any case.

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

Russia's greatest ally that has actively refused to do anything more than the bare minimum to support Russia in its greatest war since Afghanistan. You forgot that part.

Their Greatest Ally doesn't stack up so hot against the US of A's own Kosher Commandos.

Israel - 9.36 million, $560 billion GDP
Belarus - 9.31 million, $79.7 billion GDP

ШЕЕЕИИИИТТ

 

[Ghostse]

Russia's greatest ally that has actively refused to do anything more than the bare minimum to support Russia in its greatest war since Afghanistan. You forgot that part.

The bare minimum has still been a lot. Not just allowing use of territory, airspace, and using their military to train Russia's mobliks, but by forcing Ukraine to keep units defending their northern border is huge; if Belarus went true neutral it'd really free up A lot of Ukraine's forces.

Additionally, if Belarus did openly join Russia, that not only opens Belarus for more economic reprisals (and make it no longer useful as a sanctions bypass) but that would be an escalation that would allow a country like Poland to actively enter the conflict on the Ukrainian side since the war at that point stops being Russia Acting to Protect Ethnic Enclaves that are only there because of population replacement performed under stalin after genociding the natives via engineered famine and NATO supplying the Home team and then becomes a regional conflict.
Belarus, as a non-nuclear country (I mean they have Russia's stuff based there but no launch authority), would also be open to invasion/military action since its hard to touch Russia directly.

But the main point is this: There is no clear successor for Luka. If he's toppled, there will be a power vacuum and power grab, and its possible the CIA gets their man to the top. Putin isn't going to take that risk, he's not going to give even the appearance he has turned on an allied leader, because you do that and now all his other Dictator friends start getting nervous and wondering if they are next and if maybe its time for a westward pivot.

Its more likely he sends Cuban assassins to try to Churro the Maduro than poisoning Lukashenko.

 

[draggs]

Why would Putin kill Lukashenko

Belarus is already a protectorate of Russia in all but name. Lukashenko is fine with this

If Putin killed Lukashenko he would have to openly take over or install a new puppet. The farmer is already giving him the milk for free, why would he kill the farmer and have to handle the cows himself

 

[East_Clintwood]

Why would Putin kill Lukashenko

I mean sure it's retarded, and personally I don't think he has tried/would, but given it's only a less slightly retarded thing to do than basically everything he's done for the last year it's now a somewhat legit question

 

[WhiteNight]

The theory is that Putin wants the Belarusian army to enter the war. Lukashenko is refusing, no doubt due to the near-certainty that he'd have a rebellion on his hands if he tried. But if he dies, there will be chaos, and Russia can move in and take over the whole government. They can then either annex Belarus outright, or install a puppet who will order the army to fight.

But this would be a major gamble and it could backfire badly. The remains of the Russian army might get bogged down trying to control the country and thus be unable to operate in Ukraine, and Belarus might no longer be a safe haven for Russian training and deployments due to the instability. The Belarusian army could still refuse to fight, and even if not, it's not much of an army anyway. A large share of their military equipment has already been gifted to Russia.

It's risking huge downsides for a small upside, and so Putin probably believes he is better off with his lapdog alive.

 

[Ghostse]

I mean sure it's retarded, and personally I don't think he has tried/would, but given it's only a less slightly retarded thing to do than basically everything he's done for the last year it's now a somewhat legit question

Harsh but fair.

 

[jalopy]

In Asian coalition building news, South Korea may be providing artillery shells to Ukraine via the United States:
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Not sure what to make of all the skullduggery, but claims are that Russia still represents business interests for South Korea.

On the bottom side of the continent, the Biden Admin is reported to allow GE to build jet engines for Indian fighter jets in India:
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This would be a massive change, as it would mean the death knell for SU in the new plane export market and India would gain a considerable step forward in building engines. Something that took the thieving ChiComms decades to do. For now the program seems focused on light combat aircraft, with better engines yielding a newer, heavier variant.

Muh multipolar world...

 

[King George III]

On today's episode of "A Nation of Retards", our retards see an AT-4 and immediately assume Ukraine sold them to Mexican drug cartels.

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ED: And now it's trending. Nation of fucking retards indeed.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Why would Putin kill Lukashenko

Belarus is already a protectorate of Russia in all but name. Lukashenko is fine with this

If Putin killed Lukashenko he would have to openly take over or install a new puppet. The farmer is already giving him the milk for free, why would he kill the farmer and have to handle the cows himself

It depends on whether you agree that Luka is okay with being Putin's bitch and having no autonomy whatsoever, which is what current trajectory implies.
Right now Belarus is still considered a separate country, even if Putin sees it as just another Russian oblast at this point.
Somehow I doubt Luka is comfortable with the circumstances he finds himself in. Increasingly more as Putin demands more commitment to his retarded war.

It's a question of whether Putin is planning to absorb Belarus in Russian Federation long term, like he was likely planning with Yanukovych's Ukraine.

Not sure what to make of all the skullduggery, but claims are that Russia still represents business interests for South Korea.

KIA and Hyundai are probably the most common foreign manufactured cars on the Russian roads these days, so I'm not surprised.

On today's episode of "A Nation of Retards", our retards see an AT-4 and immediately assume Ukraine sold them to Mexican drug cartels.
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ED: And now it's trending. Nation of fucking retards indeed.
View attachment 5144780

Acting like "Operation Fast and Furious" didn't happen, or that it was an isolated case.