Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Kreitani]

Inshallah, BPR will be liberated from Kremlin junta!

 

[nya002]

Lukashenko called the war a war. Wasn't it just a special operation going exactly as planned?

https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-opines-on-situation-inside-and-around-cis-159296-2023/

https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-war-in-ukraine-started-long-before-2014-159289-2023/

here he calls it a war in German:

https://deu.belta.by/president/view/lukaschenko-krieg-in-der-ukraine-begann-lange-vor-2014-und-wir-haben-gesehen-wer-dahinter-steckt-65054-2023/

in Russian:

https://www.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-vojna-v-ukraine-nachalas-zadolgo-do-2014-goda-i-my-videli-kto-za-etim-stoit-569602-2023/

Spanish:

https://eng.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-war-in-ukraine-started-long-before-2014-159289-2023/

and BY:

https://blr.belta.by/president/view/lukashenka-vajna-va-ukraine-pachalasja-zadouga-da-2014-goda-i-my-bachyli-hto-za-getym-staits-128630-2023/

 

[Uranus Pink]

Other thread is now putting about the idea that wagner units are redeploying to belgorod, which is being attacked by british and american special forces, who are pretending to be poles pretending to be russians.

Why would the Poles pretend to be Russian when they already have their own volunteer legion fighting for Ukraine. And are one of the groups inside Belgorod giving the Russian govt and military grief.

 

[Scout Trooper]

Why would the Poles pretend to be Russian when they already have their own volunteer legion fighting for Ukraine. And are one of the groups inside Belgorod giving the Russian govt and military grief.

I think they just desperately want to frame this as anything other than Russians themselves getting sick of Putin's shit.

See a picture with Polish volunteers in it? "They uhh... must all be Polish! Even the ones identifying themselves as Russian!"

Same as how the presence of NATO equipment = "This is an escalation by NATO!"

 

[mindlessobserver]

Same as how the presence of NATO equipment = "This is an escalation by NATO!"

Which is blatant cope. When has a great power NOT armed a lesser power that finds itself fighting a strategic rival? Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Shiite Militias like the Mahdi Army and the Taliban ended up with a suspiciously large number of modern RPG's and so on. Largely supplied from Russia and funneled through Iran. Much like how so much US shit ended up in Ukraine Via Poland and the Baltics. Arms supplying is nothing new. What IS new is how advanced the toys being provided this time around is. That is not a function of fear over Russian Retaliation but rather a greater trust on the part of the USA for the party receiving the toys. In the case of the Soviet-Afghan War, we were supplying a bunch of goat fucking insurgents. So even the Stinger Missiles were controversial. In this case we are supplying an actual State actor so the concerns mitigated about what the shit will be used for.

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

And no. Obama was a limp-wristed bitchmade. He did lasting damage to the US both internally and internationally and he should be charged with treason for the shit he did.

 

[Scout Trooper]

Which is blatant cope. When has a great power NOT armed a lesser power that finds itself fighting a strategic rival? Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Shiite Militias like the Mahdi Army and the Taliban ended up with a suspiciously large number of modern RPG's and so on. Largely supplied from Russia and funneled through Iran. Much like how so much US shit ended up in Ukraine Via Poland and the Baltics. Arms supplying is nothing new. What IS new is how advanced the toys being provided this time around is. That is not a function of fear over Russian Retaliation but rather a greater trust on the part of the USA for the party receiving the toys. In the case of the Soviet-Afghan War, we were supplying a bunch of goat fucking insurgents. So even the Stinger Missiles were controversial. In this case we are supplying an actual State actor so the concerns mitigated about what the shit will be used for.

Exactly. Welcome to our position when EFPs started showing up in Iraq, or the untold thousands of pounds of materiel and fighters started coming in from Syria.

We knew damn well what was happening, it was a real threat, but the political situation made it impossible to strike at the sources, so we had to deal with it by diverting resources to border security and interdiction once they got inside Iraq.

We bitched about it too, and justifiably so, but that was part of the cost of kicking the hornets' nest and we went to work finding solutions instead of a bunch of posturing.

 

[mindlessobserver]

I wonder if the BBC is even aware of just how supremely BASED this puff piece is.

 

[AgendaPoster]

#notallRussians

 

[Scout Trooper]

I wonder if the BBC is even aware of just how supremely BASED this puff piece is.

Holy shit, you mean you can just... not be a refugee? You don't have to go to another country and rape and/or kill their citizens?

Seriously though, I can't imagine trying to go about life in these conditions let alone raise a baby. Amazing grit.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Tank Museum Autists finally address the T-14 Armata.

Spoiler. Its shit. Overly dependent on western imports to work. A good idea in theory, but utterly beyond the capability of the Russian tank industry to provide. It can no longer resource the gunsights from france, or the computer chips from Taiwan due to sanctions. Worse, the light weight reactive armor was never proven, let alone produced.

 

[Thomas Talus]

Holy shit, you mean you can just... not be a refugee? You don't have to go to another country and rape and/or kill their citizens?

I hear that you don't have to live like a refugee.

 

[Ghostse]

Tank Museum Autists finally address the T-14 Armata.

Spoiler. Its shit. Overly dependent on western imports to work. A good idea in theory, but utterly beyond the capability of the Russian tank industry to provide. It can no longer resource the gunsights from france, or the computer chips from Taiwan due to sanctions. Worse, the light weight reactive armor was never proven, let alone produced.

Everything about the tank is unproven in a real combat environment
The armor is untested, the gun is untested, the drive train isn't tested, and the APS is also a hopeful wish.

Its got some good ideas, but the only thing I know is a tank never performs to specs.

I hear that you don't have to live like a refugee.

That doesn't really matter to me.
Everyone has got to fight to be free.

 

[Uranus Pink]

Much like how so much US shit ended up in Ukraine Via Poland and the Baltics. Arms supplying is nothing new.

Trump had the US shit shipped directly to Ukraine as he wasn't giving a single fuck about doing it clandestinely.

Regarding the T-14, Brazil's Osorio tank had precisely the same problems with damn near every part of it was licensed from someone else and thus a massive legalistic headache for any would be buyers including the Brazilian Army. Otherwise the Osorio had been proven to work in various trials done by interested potential buyers.

 

[Cool Dog Returns]

Holy shit, you mean you can just... not be a refugee? You don't have to go to another country and rape and/or kill their citizens?

Libfags still refuse to admit they got bamboozled by a bunch of cameljockeys and OGnigs pretending to be refugees and not economic opportunists who wanted free shit

A good idea in theory

It was shit from the start, the unmanned turret its just one small failure away from turning the whole tank useless, they should've kept the old autoloader system but give it a proper firewall and door so the turret wouldnt go airborne after a hit

The only good part was the ARENA system except that shit didnt work, in fact there were active protection systems from the soviet era that actually worked

 

[CuzinEd]

Why would the Poles pretend to be Russian when they already have their own volunteer legion fighting for Ukraine. And are one of the groups inside Belgorod giving the Russian govt and military grief.

The vatniggers are saying that it's American and British special forces in Belgorod pretending to be Poles that are pretending to be Russians. Not that they are Poles. It's just more retarded vatnigger copium. It's not British or Americans doing it. At the very least it's Russians that were in Ukraine that the Ukrainians armed and allowed to go into Russia to make trouble there. The US would never have US special forces units running around on Russian territory that way. At least not being that loud and obvious.

Tank Museum Autists finally address the T-14 Armata.

Spoiler. Its shit. Overly dependent on western imports to work. A good idea in theory, but utterly beyond the capability of the Russian tank industry to provide. It can no longer resource the gunsights from france, or the computer chips from Taiwan due to sanctions. Worse, the light weight reactive armor was never proven, let alone produced.

Lazerpig already said it's a garbage tank. The Russians only have 19 of them I think. Maybe 24 at the most. It's not very good.

 

[Quindoll]

I liken the Russian government being the guy in Vegas that hits a jackpot on the slots then ends the night gambling his winnings then hitting the ATM until he hits his withdrawal limit. All they had to do was wait a few years for the EU to be totally dependent on Russian gas, the Biden Administration to collapse on their own social justice and tranny idiocy as well as the fall of Afghanistan and still have a military deterrent that was unchecked and assumed to be a neer peer threat to the US. I wonder if that half Nigerian Obama would have pushed for intervention in Ukraine back in 2014 if we knew how incompetent the Russian government was.

I have to disagree. I think the time for Russia was simply running out.

I focus more on electricity but the electricity from gas in the European Union was the following in 2021:
EU 432 TWh
Italy 117 TWh
Spain 62 TWh
Germany 52 TWh
Netherlands 42 TWh
France 33 TWh
Greece 22 TWh
Belgium 19 TWh
+ couple smaller countries

Gas run power plants tend to be the most flexible ones. So they are the most vulnerable by disruptions from solar/wind, both of which are becoming cheaper and cheaper and are already price competitive in many areas. This is especially true for the top two consumers: Spain and Italy.



See how the midday solar production is putting a dent into the gas consumption? That's the weakness Russia is facing. Furthermore Spain and Italy are traditional export destinations for French nuclear power exports. Which these two huge customers becoming more and more independent it opens up the export to the smaller countries like the Netherlands, Belgium or the bigger UK.

The same is true for the transportation sector where EV are taking a higher share of vehicles and where you can load them for dirt cheap from the late spring to the early autumn when solar generation is peaking
Heat pumps and more proper building insulations are doing their part.

In short: Russia was more and more losing it's fossil leverage and their military equipment wasn't going to become better either way. Even with higher trade volumes, the better and better getting renewables technology would at the very least put on pressure on the price and therefore the profit margin.

Time was not on Russias side. Now they decided to speedrun the progress though, because renewable energy investment is soaring.

 

[CuzinEd]

The Ukrainians take out a T-72. I don't know what variant it is. Just a T-72. I guess the Russians still have some left. Ukraine is going to look like Afghanistan when the war is over with abandoned and destroyed Russian tanks and vehicles all over the place.

 

[teriyakiburns]

Gas run power plants tend to be the most flexible ones. So they are the most vulnerable by disruptions from solar/wind, both of which are becoming cheaper and cheaper and are already price competitive in many areas.

Wind is intermittent and unpredictable, and rarely operates at its nameplate capacity, meaning it has to have spinning backups of equal capacity, ready to take over at short notice. Gas is the most ideal for this, so they will still need to have gas plants active and burning the entire time. Solar produces most of its energy at the wrong time of day, so peaker plants are still necessary in the morning, and especially in the evening - and they're also preferentially powered by gas, for the same reason as the backup generation for wind.

Russia wasn't going to lose its leverage, because "renewables", while they appear to be winning (if you only take the highly distorted energy market figures at face value), are unreliable, expensive, and not nearly as useful as they're claimed to be.

The proof of this is Germany, which has by far the greatest investment into renewable energy. It should have been able to divorce itself from Russia almost completely, but it was in fact the most dependent on Russia, because it needed Russian gas to maintain the extensive backup generation necessary to create the illusion that its renewables scheme was working. The UK is similarly invested in unreliables, but our gas primarily comes from other sources than Russia, so we were able to maintain the illusion longer.

 

[Quindoll]

Wind is intermittent and unpredictable, and rarely operats at its nameplate capacity, meaning it has to have spinning backups of equal capacity, ready to take over at short notice. Gas is the most ideal for this, so they will still need to have gas plants active and burning the entire time. Solar produces most of its energy at the wrong time of day, so peaker plants are still necessary in the morning, and especially in the evening - and they're also prefentially powered by gas, for the same reason as the backup generation for wind. Russia wasn't going to lose its leverage because "renewables", while they appear to be winning (if you only take the highly distorted energy market figures at face value), are unreliable, expensive, and not nearly as useful as they're claimed to be.

The proof of this is Germany, which has by far the greatest investment into renewable energy. It should have been able to divorce itself from Russia almost completely, but it was in fact the most dependent on Russia, because it needed Russian gas to maintain the extensive backup generation necessary to create the illusion that its renewables scheme was working. The UK is similarly invested in unreliables, but our gas primarily comes from other sources than Russia, so we were able to maintain the illusion longer.

Your point being?
Gas is used for short term peak satisfaction, as you stated, and then reduced as soon as solar kicks in. What would be your alternative?
My guess, without the solar production would be, that most would just to run the gas power plants though. Otherwise anyone would have to install additional power plant capacity with high flexibility and that would be redundant and more costly.

In the EU most countries replaced the coal power plants via gas power plants since gas is having overall lower emissions and a couple of other benefits like the greater flexibility.

The EU had around 600 TWh of electricity production from coal. Now it is around 400 TWh and will be around 350 TWh for this year. So the replacement potential is limited, especially since the coal usage is concentrated on a few countries:

2022:
EU: 423 TWh
Germany: 161 TWh
Poland: 118 TWh
Czech Republic: 33 TWh
Bulgara: 24 TWh
+ smaller countries

I come to Germany later. As for Poland they are currently looking for nuclear so that will not lead to an increase of gas consumption.

Germany is actually a good example to prove you wrong. They not only good rid of their nuclear power generation but also reduced their coal power generation. Renewables took over. Now if you are right. Gas consumption should increase a lot, at least somewhat in the dimensions of the replacement, right? Here are the public electricity production values:

	2002	2022
Coal	252 TWh	161 TWh
Nuclear	153 TWh	33 TWh
Gas	40 TWh	45 TWh
Overall electricity production	502 TWh	491 TWh

The highest value for electricity production out of gas was in 2008 with 69 TWh.
The lowest value for electricity production out of gas was in 2015 with 30 TWh.

So they replaced 211 TWh of nuclear and coal and got an increase of gas by 5 TWh. Actually I did the average of the years 2002 - 2022 and it was at; 49 TWh per year. So where is your gas increase? It should be there, yet it isn't.

Germany gas addiction does not come from it's electricity sector. I quote:

The total volume of natural gas imported into Germany in 2022 was 1,449 TWh (2021: 1,652 TWh).

Germanys industry, foremost the chemical industry (BASF, Bayer) is a huge consumer of gas as well as the heating sector since nearly every house uses gas for heating purposes.

Now with that being said. It doesn't look so good for Russia as an gas exporter anymore. Coal replacement potential is limited (Germany managed without so far and Poland looks toward nuclear) and the countries currently running their gas power plants to cover for the peaks can more and more run them on reduced capacity since renewables are taking up a higher and higher share.

There is still a good chunk of this month left but the overall consumption for the first half of the year looks really good in comparison to the previous one.

Gas will probably hit somewhere between 180 TWh for the first six months. Meanwhile coal consumption is also down. The reduction is mostly driven by the recovery of the nuclear electricity generation is France, the passing of the drought conditions in 2022, the solar replacement of gas and also by an overall lower electricity consumption.