Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

The drive train was tested in the rigorous Parade environment and appeared to be less than ideal.
The driver engaged the e-brake. That tank drove itself away under it's own power during the parade.

As Jalopy said, the T-14 becoming in-op during the parade is fake news. Someone in the other, bad thread a while back posted video of self-same T-14 driving away after a couple of other tankers give it a once over. The story is the driver engaged the e-brake.

Which seems like a very bad UX and/or training issue if you can lock your tank up that easily during parade manuevers.

Or if you want to believe the worst, the drive train fucked itself but an experienced crew was able to get it rolling again. Which might be a T-72 transmission sort of issue.

But it was able to get rolling. This is hardly a ringing endorsement, but the truth isn't quite as hilarious as the story that is repeated.
 
Holy shit its happening. Blowing that dam is a declaration of total war. Ukraine now has less then a few weeks to secure the Zaporizhia station, and run pump lines to the reactors before a melt down.

So fucking cynical. The Russians have forced the Faustian bargain of binary choice. Peace or War. With no wiggle room.

Oh and let's not forget how many people are about to die down stream of the dan as the Dnieper is unleashed. If these reports are true, all the fears about escalation are meaningless.

This war is now nuclear and all of Europe is imperiled. Even you Turkey, you duplicitous fucks.
From the nuclear autists I follow I got the following info on the reactors:

Of the 6 reactors:
5 are in cold shutdown, meaning lower temperature and lower cooling water needs
1 is in hot Shutdown, meaning temperatures between 200–250 °C

It is still a situation to be highly concerned about, but I think this should be manageable. Still the coolant supply is the one thing you do not ever attempt to screw with when it comes to nuclear reactors.
 
I think that the dam being destroyed could be due to incompetence. When I heard the news, I remembered that a few months ago, there was concern over the decreasing water level in the Kakhovka reservoir. Since November the Russians had kept the slush gates open, which led to the lowest water level in decades and caused much concern. It has been reported that the water level began to increase after this, which indicates that the Russians made an attempt to fix the issue. It's possible that the Russian "fix" prevented the dam from opening some or all gates and eventually caused overflooding, which broke the dam. I find it difficult to believe that the Russian higher ups would deliberately blow the dam.


Then on Nov. 11, 2022, as Ukrainian forces advanced, Russian troops blew up a road over the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam, which controls the water level on the reservoir.

Initially some feared that the explosion would damage the dam and spill water from the reservoir, but Helms says it seems to have destroyed the road, while leaving the dam's sluice gates mostly intact.

However immediately after the detonation, it appears that Russian forces deliberately used two gantry cranes on the Russian-controlled side of the dam to open additional sluice gates, allowing water to rush out of the reservoir.
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The dam in January.

I also think that it's worth noting the vatnigger response. Russia has not officially accused Ukraine of blowing the dam, but vatniggers are already doing that on their own. Styx played the "we can't know whodunnit" game and absurdly claimed that Ukraine had a motive. His comment section is full of people blaming Ukraine and occasionally the CIA or Biden.


Some lunacy from the comments:

It's amazing how these dastardly Russians keep doing things that annoy the "international community" while harming their own interests. It's almost like somebody we can't criticise has something to gain here.

With all of the knock-on effects from this event for the Russian-held territories in the area (cutting off Crimea's fresh water supply, risking the nuclear plant, much worse expected flooding of Russian positions along the left bank because of the topography), and given Ukraine's current positions and apparent overall readiness (not just what they claim for their Western donor audience), I really think that Ukraine hit the dam.

I suspect that their long-hyped, much-delayed "spring offensive" simply wasn't up to the task--and so by creating a local stalemate around Kherson (and by leaving the Russians' hands full with a few new local crises), they're hoping to shorten the operational front line and give themselves fewer targets so as to try to still salvage something out of this "spring (or summer) offensive."

We’ve been warned about the Kakhovka Dam destruction since the Russian retreat last November.

Back then, even MSM were promoting the idea of the dam getting blown up.

Now that it’s done, Kherson city will be inhabitable, the affected areas are as below & the Crimea main water supply is out…

So don’t you dare come tell me the Russians did it!

I love how the west is like "oh my god, how could russia do this?" every time something happens. Newsflash: ITS A WAR. Bad things happen.

After the Nord stream pipelines, nothing will stop sleepy Joe

Thanks Brandon very cool.
 
But more to the point, Russia just fucked with the water supply going to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. And fucking with that power plant was a NATO red line. The Russians have completely lost it.
All bets are off when Russia uses a overheating nuclear power plant as a shield and Vatniks blame Ukraine for imminent Chernobyl 2.0?

If that plant isn't shut down it's going to be Chernobyl on steroids. Entire continent is going to be irradiated including Russia will become glowies like me.
 
@Super Saiyan Hitler
I also think that it's worth noting the vatnigger response. Russia has not officially accused Ukraine of blowing the dam, but vatniggers are already doing that on their own. Styx played the "we can't know whodunnit" game and absurdly claimed that Ukraine had a motive. His comment section is full of people blaming Ukraine and occasionally the CIA or Biden.
I watched that video. Styx said they both have a motive for doing it. He didn't single out Ukraine as only having a motive. Styx has some pretty lame takes on the whole situation in Ukraine. He does the fog of war thing all the time. Saying we don't know anything because "muh fog of war". That's simply not the case. We do know what's going on to an extent. We might not have all the small details but we do a have a pretty idea of what's going on. Styx is an e-bggar so he has to straddle a line between being too pro Ukraine or pro Russia. He says he believes Ukraine has a right to defend itself then says he disagrees with giving them weapons. He brings up how the US aided the Mujahideen in the 80's during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and how they later on became the Taliban. He is pretty much all over the place when it comes to the war in Ukraine. I don't really pay much attention to his videos about the conflict. I mostly stick to his videos about US politics.

In the big picture Biden is responsible. He relaxed some of the sanctions on the Russians allowing them to continue building one of their pipelines. The Russians probably wouldn't be in Ukraine right now if Trump was president.
 
In the big picture Biden is responsible. He relaxed some of the sanctions on the Russians allowing them to continue building one of their pipelines. The Russians probably wouldn't be in Ukraine right now if Trump was president.
He all but openly announced that the US wouldn't intervene if Russia took just a nibble. I guess the problem is, reality has a way of catching up with people - even demented idiots.

If accurate, it means Russia isn't immediately shooting themselves in the foot if they blew the dam.
Quite the opposite, actually (e: I mean opposite in that they actively benefit. Just realised it could read ambiguous). The south bank of the river is mostly marshland, while the population centres on that side are mostly at a higher elevation. The topography in general would tend to drive the water to scour the north bank, which is much more heavily populated. There's already video of houses being washed away on twitter - can't archive right now because my internet is playing up something rotten, but it's out there. Kherson is being evacuated and large parts of nova kakhova have been flooded.

This is no different than the attempt to knock out Ukraine's electricity supplies over the winter; it's Russia attacking civilians, using scorched-earth tactics as a way to demoralise them and try to force Ukraine to the negotiating table.
 
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Every time I feel russoids can't really go any lower, they manage to punch a hole in the bottom and fall even further. Geneva Convention? More like Geneva Suggestion, am I right comrade?
In order for the Geneva convention to work you have to be able to enforce it. Good luck doing that to a nuclear power. Both the Russians and Americans never suffer any consequences for the shit they pull. I remember when people talked about charging Bush as a war criminal. I can't remember if they ever did. Bush is still walking free and hated. I laughed when people talked about Putin being charged as a war criminal or whatever. You know nothing was ever going to happen with that.
 
In order for the Geneva convention to work you have to be able to enforce it. Good luck doing that to a nuclear power. Both the Russians and Americans never suffer any consequences for the shit they pull. I remember when people talked about charging Bush as a war criminal. I can't remember if they ever did. Bush is still walking free and hated. I laughed when people talked about Putin being charged as a war criminal or whatever. You know nothing was ever going to happen with that.
I know
I'm just upset. This is a genuine red line, depending on how the West will react to this, it opens a new avenue of fuckery that Russkies can do. This is, without exaggerating, billions of dollars in damages, damages that will take decades to heal and depress whatever is left of Ukrainian economy and renders considerable parts of the country worse to live in.

I just hope some niggers will remember that, when they have an itch to be like "GIVE ME MY TAXES RIGHT NOW" when they see that Ukrainians have a gall to eat in clean McDs.
 
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According to this IAEA report (Archive) the power plant doesn't produce it's own power, so control rods all dropped, and is reliant on a single ultra high voltage line for the cooling pumps. After that line there are diesel generators on site. Hopefully a report comes out soon on the water usage rate and how practical it will be to run pipes down to the new level of the Dnieper
Fuuuuck. ONE line?!?! That's an even dumber setup than Fukishima. Pray they have enough fuel for those diesels and it hasn't been repurposed for the war effort elsewhere.
 
@Super Saiyan Hitler

I watched that video. Styx said they both have a motive for doing it. He didn't single out Ukraine as only having a motive. Styx has some pretty lame takes on the whole situation in Ukraine. He does the fog of war thing all the time. Saying we don't know anything because "muh fog of war". That's simply not the case. We do know what's going on to an extent. We might not have all the small details but we do a have a pretty idea of what's going on. Styx is an e-bggar so he has to straddle a line between being too pro Ukraine or pro Russia. He says he believes Ukraine has a right to defend itself then says he disagrees with giving them weapons. He brings up how the US aided the Mujahideen in the 80's during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and how they later on became the Taliban. He is pretty much all over the place when it comes to the war in Ukraine. I don't really pay much attention to his videos about the conflict. I mostly stick to his videos about US politics.

In the big picture Biden is responsible. He relaxed some of the sanctions on the Russians allowing them to continue building one of their pipelines. The Russians probably wouldn't be in Ukraine right now if Trump was president.
I didn't accuse him of singling out Ukraine, but I have very little tolerance for this fake neutrooler shit. I don't remember any of them rushing to calm speculation after Nord Stream or muh biolabs.

If the dam had broken during the battle for Kherson and 25K Russians had been trapped in Kherson, I could have believed that Ukraine was behind it. Right now it just doesn't make sense. In the last couple of months Ukraine has launched raids across the Dnieper and now in Belgorod and Moscow to stretch Russian forces and defenses as thinly as possible. Increasing the width of the Dnieper complicates or outright prevents future Ukrainian operations in that direction and secures a frontline for Russia. Russia has no interest in crossing the Dnieper at this time since they already struggled with logistics before they blew up the last bridges and the dam broke.
 
Russians started trying to deny it, but this is not credible.

Sources and timeline in this thread:



I start to be concerned about Zaporizhzhia again :(
The Russians trying to deny this is absurd because they are literally the only people who benefit from it. The only reason to blow up the dam and flood Kherson is to prevent a crossing there. The fact that the dam has been blown today tells me the Ukrainian counteroffensive is taking place, because:

The main problem for Russia is, as it was during the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives, distribution of forces. At that time they did not have enough men to adequately defend each front, so they lost territory to the Ukrainian army. They could not blow the dam back then because half their army was on the other side of the Dnieper. But this time they're all east of it.

My guess is Ukraine is hitting Russia in Zaporizhia and/or the Donbas right now and the Russians are panicking, they've blown the dam to render the Kherson front completely unassailable to Ukraine so they can rapidly reinforce the rest of the front without weakening their defenses there.

Ukraine would be retarded to blow the dam because even if they have no plans to attack in Kherson, they need the Russians to think they might so they maintain large forces there. All this would achieve is making it easier for Russia to concentrate force in the east and thus harder for them to attack.

This is likely also the reason for the incursions into Belgorod - it forces Russia to commit troops to the border instead of the frontline. Anything that thins the Russian forces is good for Ukraine; anything that enables shifting more troops to fewer places is good for Russia.

And before Russia inevitably blames glowies from the West (probably the UK specifically, apparently the Brits are responsible whenever a bear sneezes in eastern Europe) that makes no sense either because again, we don't benefit from helping Russia eliminate one vector of Ukraine's attack, and we also don't benefit from risking a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhia nuke plant.

Russia did this, 100%, because Ukraine is on the offensive and they need those troops for the eastern sector. If I'm wrong then some incredibly stupid people did something extraordinarily stupid. And yes, this is a war crime. Frankly it's beyond the pale.
 
Some decent good news amidst all this depressing news of the dam catastrophe; It looks like Australia will provide 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv:
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Australia, the US and Ukraine are discussing sending 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv helping fulfil part of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for fighter jets, rather than sending them to the scrapheap as planned.
Sources have told The Australian Financial Review that the US, which recently gave permission to other Western allies to supply Ukraine with advanced fighter jets, including US-made F-16s, is favourably disposed to the idea of gifting Ukraine the F/A-18s.
Western volunteer pilots could operate them:
And with an influx of western fighters to help Ukraine, that would include ex-Hornet pilots.
 
Fuuuuck. ONE line?!?! That's an even dumber setup than Fukishima. Pray they have enough fuel for those diesels and it hasn't been repurposed for the war effort elsewhere.
The rest were destroyed.

Calm your tits about the NPP, it's a modern reactor, it's not Chernobyl, it won't explode.
To expand on this, ZNPP uses VVER reactors, the GEN III version.
They're much better contained than Chernobyl's RMBK reactors and the controls aren't graphite.


As to cause of the dam failure, it looks more like an accident or structural failure at this point. That clean sheer on the turbine side is really weird to me.
Structure was built in 1959, some level of repairs in 2019. With peaked water level it could have gone beyond what it could handle.
Apparently the reservoir held some 17 cubic kilometers of water, wonder how long it will take to drain.
 
I find this thread and various nested threads within to be pretty reasonable in analyzing the dam collapse:

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1665992292040056833
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/Xjqaq

Most likely explanation I think is incompetence by the Russians. A few days ago a part of the structure collapsed, indicating structural strain. They let the water level get too high and it caused a catastrophic failure. It's alternatively possible that river mines drifted down and hit the thing.

On the other hand, there are videos of Russians claiming to have mined the plant last Fall/Winter in anticipation of blowing it if desired:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1666061532080361472
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/Q6jDC

The only 'benefit' to Ukraine is the water supply is cut off to Crimea, where the reservoirs are already filled to capacity. And of course that water supply was cut off between 2014-2022 and Crimea wasn't crippled.
 
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