Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Delicious Diversity]

I find this thread and various nested threads within to be pretty reasonable in analyzing the dam collapse:

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1665992292040056833
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/Xjqaq

Most likely explanation I think is incompetence by the Russians. A few days ago a part of the structure collapsed, indicating structural strain. They let the water level get too high and it caused a catastrophic failure. It's alternatively possible that river mines drifted down and hit the thing.

On the other hand, there are videos of Russians claiming to have mined the plant last Fall/Winter in anticipation of blowing it if desired:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1666061532080361472
https://ghostarchive.org/archive/Q6jDC

The only 'benefit' to Ukraine is the water supply is cut off to Crimea, where the reservoirs are already filled to capacity. And of course that water supply was cut off between 2014-2022 and Crimea wasn't crippled.

Yeah I'm not buying that this was accidental, that dam has stood there since the 1950s and it just collapses now? The timing makes that phenomenally unlikely. At THE single most ideal time (for Russia) for it to collapse, it chooses to collapse. Nah. Russians for sure planted bombs there before they evacuated Kherson so they could blow it if they needed to later on.

And you're right, the only 'benefit' for Ukraine I can think of is cutting off the water to Crimea. But... I mean, priorities man. That's really not that fucking important right now. Also talk about cutting off your fucking head to spite your nose, lol.

 

[Oxyjen]

 

[teriyakiburns]

View attachment 5152108

Ah, farm equipment. The russian army's true nemesis.

 

[Oxyjen]

Fuuuuck. ONE line?!?! That's an even dumber setup than Fukishima. Pray they have enough fuel for those diesels and it hasn't been repurposed for the war effort elsewhere.

It’s reliant on one line because other parts of the grid were bombed extensively, quite early on.
During that time the plant was running on diesel backup generators for several days until even that one line was repaired.

NPP reactors certainly will melt down if cooling water cannot be circulated. Passive safety is not possible due to the power levels involved - instead these plants rely on multiple layers of backup power to the pumps.
And that’s assuming that the cooling reservoir has not also been drained by this dam bombing.
Fukushima partially melted down due to lack of power to the pumps. Without extreme efforts to contain the situation (which would be impossible due to occupation) and restore cooling, the results could be much worse than Fukushima, more like Chernobyl level.

 

[mindlessobserver]

View attachment 5152108

How anyone could look at those thermal images and see a tank is beyond me.

The Russians trying to deny this is absurd because they are literally the only people who benefit from it.

This right here. The idea Ukraine blowing the dam is absurd. If anything they would want it intact because its good way to get across the river, never mind all the flooding that is going to happen downstream and the risks to the reactors up stream. I'd be willing to believe good ole' fashioned incompetence to be sure, but the simple truth is blowing the dam has so many benefits for the Russians that its hard not to believe it was done deliberately. Especially since Russia has been claiming for weeks UKRAINE was planning to destroy the dam. Ivan's razor. When the Russian government makes a claim about its enemies future actions, they are actually signaling what they intend to do instead.

 

[CAPTAIN HAPPY]

Ukraine also works tight with NATO, Brit and US intelligence. No fucking way they would sanction this dam leakage.

 

[draggs]

Russia claimed it asploded several Leopard 2s

The video it put out showed... several tractors being targeted and deNazified by the proud soldiers of the rodina

The chef man says Bakhmut will be retaken in six weeks if things keep going like this

Nazis are still joyriding around Belgorod

Vatnigger telegram is alarmed at the increased hohol bombardment and the work it's doing along Svatove-Kreminna front, Bakhmut front, and Donetsk city area. Ukraine is also advancing on all 3 fronts, albeit at a rate we'd make fun of Russia for achieving

And now Russia is going to have a serious problem in Crimea in a year or so with this dam going up. They say they have 2 years worth of water stored but even so things will start to get tight well before that

Russia what doing?

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Atesh has identified the Russian unit & individuals responsible for the dam explosion:
Telegram

Retribution for Kakhovka!

The ATESH movement found out who blew up the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. This was done by the 1st battalion of the 205th motorized rifle brigade from the city of Budyonnovsk, Stavropol Territory.

We have already sent out guidelines for the leadership of the brigade and the perpetrators of this crime to our agents. We will avenge this!

ATESH shares list of war criminals

List of servicemen of the 1st battalion of the 205th motorized rifle brigade who took part in the mining of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station last spring:

Platoon commander, Art. Lieutenant Ramazanov Rustam Ramazanovich 8-965-377-77-93
Company commander, Art. lieutenant Marzaev Valery Vladimirovich 8-928-486-30-36
Deputy company commander for radar st. Lieutenant Sosnovy Vladislav Yurievich 8-918-856-23-31
Platoon commander, Art. Lieutenant Guz Ivan Yurievich 8-906-467-12-49
Platoon commander St. Lieutenant Smirnov Oleg Vladimirovich 8-928-012-40-24
Platoon commander, Lieutenant Podlednev Valery Alekseevich 8-923-146-21-89
company commander, captain, Plotnikov Roman Viktorovich, 8-962-404-50-83, 8-909-751-78-90
Deputy company commander, Art. lieutenant, Nurmagomedov Zabit Kamilovich, 8-928-684-06-64

LIST of personnel of the engineer-sapper battalion in the area of 2 BTGr:
Lieutenant Colonel Shchelokov Maxim Alexandrovich
Captain Bibikhin Evgeny Alekseevich
Art. Lieutenant Tarasenko Evgeny Sergeevich
Art. Ensign Gadzhikerimov Shakhlamaz Suleimanovich
Private Suleymanov Magomedkamil Ibakovich
Art. Sergeant Sultanov Ainuv Khamidovich
Private Hasanov Arsen Lazirovich
Private Moiseenko Nikita Maksimovich
Private Fedenkov Danil Evgenievich
Private Avetyan Garegin Karenovich
ml. Sergeant Kargaev Shamil Beslanovich
Art. Sergeant Gamzatov Eduard Idrisovich
Art. Sergeant Mandzhiev Pavel Andreevich
Art. Sergeant Ramazanov Rasim Zeinutdinovich
Art. Sergeant Medzhidov Dair Medzhidovich
Private Khalatov Salim Dzhabirovich
Art. Sergeant Ashurbekov Timur Gasanbalaevich
Corporal Gankaev Bekhan Ainutdinovich
Corporal Urumov Zamir Muratovich
Art. Sergeant Daudov Zaur Magomedovich
Sergeant Bolotnikov Dmitry Igorevich
Sergeant Magomedov Ruslan Ramazanovich
Corporal Rublev Oleg Sergeevich
ml. Sergeant Betin Oleg Pavlovich
Corporal Fomin Evgeny Sergeevich
ml. Sergeant Ismailov Arsen Akhmedovich

More names coming soon...

Archive

 

[MS Paint Gigachad]

View attachment 5152108

They've finally dealt with "John Deere", who was/is responsible for the capture of dozens of russian tanks

 

[mindlessobserver]

Ukraine is also advancing on all 3 fronts, albeit at a rate we'd make fun of Russia for achieving

They are probing atm, and trying to confuse the Russians as to where they will actually commit to trying to punch through. One of the benefits of having a fucking huge front line is that you have alot of territory you could potentially attack, and Russia can't be everywhere at once.

 

[not william stenchever]

If the Zaphorizia nuclear plant goes biblical because of Russian incompetence or sabotage I say we just nuke Moscow. There are just some things you don't fuck with and it's clear that the only language vatniggers understand is violence.

 

[draggs]

They've finally dealt with "John Deere", who was/is responsible for the capture of dozens of russian tanks

I remember the Deere of Dnipro

They haven't got the Gypsy of Odessa yet though

 

[jalopy]

Video many are claiming to show the dam being blown up:

Slight problem, it’s the wrong part. That is the portion of the dam blown by the Russians after retreating from Kherson. There doesn’t appear to be debris, or a rush of water next to the explosion.

Here is a claimed satellite shot of the dam after damage:

Different location than the explosion, gantry cranes in different positions.
Russians could have blown it up, but every single pro-Ukraine commentator I have seen jumped on the Russia blew it up campaign immediately.
No definitive evidence yet. I don't seen scorch marks on the roadway either, so top attack with something like Storm Shadow seems unlikely.

This legitimately could be an old Soviet dam suffering from material fatigue being overloaded and failing.
Could also be glowies of any variety placing explosives where they would do the right amount of damage.

 

[teriyakiburns]

Here is a claimed satellite shot of the dam after damage:

That's from the 2nd of june, when the roadway collapsed. It might have damaged something, but the water flow is most likely through sluice gates.

This is the dam after the breach.

(from here [a])
The breach on the northern end of the dam matches with the position of the explosion in your video. The gantry in the foreground is the same as the one on the dam, too.

 

[Delicious Diversity]

Video many are claiming to show the dam being blown up:

View attachment 5152220
Slight problem, it’s the wrong part. That is the portion of the dam blown by the Russians after retreating from Kherson. There doesn’t appear to be debris, or a rush of water next to the explosion.

Here is a claimed satellite shot of the dam after damage:
View attachment 5152223
Different location than the explosion, gantry cranes in different positions.
Russians could have blown it up, but every single pro-Ukraine commentator I have seen jumped on the Russia blew it up campaign immediately.
No definitive evidence yet. I don't seen scorch marks on the roadway either, so top attack with something like Storm Shadow seems unlikely.

This legitimately could be an old Soviet dam suffering from material fatigue being overloaded and failing.
Could also be glowies of any variety placing explosives where they would do the right amount of damage.

It's possible the dam fully gave way at some point after the explosion, we don't have enough info yet on exactly what happened. But yeah we need that footage to be dated to know if that happened today or when the Russians blew the dam before.

I have seen people in the other thread claiming it cracked and broke due to the Ukrainians shelling it during the Kherson counter-offensive... problem with that narrative is the Ukrainians didn't strike the dam itself, they struck a small bridge adjacent to the dam with HIMARS.

If we are to believe it failed and broke due to prior battle damage, I would be more inclined to believe the damage which caused that was when the Russians fucking blew up the top part of the dam itself after they withdrew from Kherson.

However I'm skeptical of this being an accidental occurrence due to the timing.

As for the idea of this being done by Western glowies, I think that's schizo nonsense. Why the fuck would we do it, what possible benefits do we or Ukraine get from it. All that serves to achieve is removing Kherson as a factor in the counteroffensive, enabling Russia to bolster the other sectors, and risking a nuclear disaster in Europe. Oh and crippling Ukraine for decades to come.

That just makes zero sense to me. At least with the Nordstream shenanigans I can in theory see an economic incentive for the US to blow the pipelines.

 

[Oxyjen]

I could believe an accidental failure (but caused by negligence / prior damage) but also read that the turbine house was blown up deliberately by placed charges, and water is exiting through there. Apparently carrying hundreds of gallons of hydraulic oil with it.

 

[Super Saiyan Hitler]

So on the day that Russia accidentally or deliberately destroys the Nova Kakhovka dam, there's breaking news in the Nord Stream case, suggesting that the US knew about a Ukrainian plan to sabotage the pipelines. Of course this will be spun as proof that Ukraine was behind Nord Stream, and distract from the Nova Kakhovka disaster. I guess the Norwegian and US navies are no longer responsible, even though we heard for months that Seymour Hersh had confirmed that it was definitely a NATO plot. Really gets the noggin joggin.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/06/biden-knew-of-plan-to-attack-nord-stream-three-months-before-explosion

The Biden administration received an intelligence report that Ukraine had a plan for an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines three months before an underwater explosion disabled the natural gas link from Russia to Germany, the Washington Post has reported.

A European intelligence service told the CIA that the Ukrainian military was planning an attack using a small team of divers who reported directly to the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, the paper reported.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/29/sweden-reports-fourth-nord-stream-1-2-pipeline-leak
The six-person team reported directly to General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the report claimed, so that president Volodymyr Zelenskiy would not know about the operation.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Ukrainebro's, we got too cocky. Russia really HAS destroyed a whole bunch of Leopards.

 

[DumbDude43]

If the Zaphorizia nuclear plant goes biblical because of Russian incompetence or sabotage I say we just nuke Moscow. There are just some things you don't fuck with and it's clear that the only language vatniggers understand is violence.

the reactors at zaporizhia aren't rbmk reactors like the ones in chernobyl, they are more modern and safer designs.
if they suffer a loss of coolant situation, you can expect a core meltdown like what happened in america at three mile island, not a complete catastrophe like what happened at chernobyl.

 

[East_Clintwood]

So on the day that Russia accidentally or deliberately destroys the Nova Kakhovka dam, there's breaking news in the Nord Stream case, suggesting that the US knew about a Ukrainian plan to sabotage the pipelines. Of course this will be spun as proof that Ukraine was behind Nord Stream, and distract from the Nova Kakhovka disaster. I guess the Norwegian and US navies are no longer responsible, even though we heard for months that Seymour Hersh had confirmed that it was definitely a NATO plot. Really gets the noggin joggin.

>Country has theoretical plan to attack hugely important strategic asset of enemy country
More on this shocking report at 11

The Hersh shit was always retarded. Aside from the logic being flawed (they didn't use actual JSOC personnel for.... reasons), he was so super specific in what he claimed happened that as soon as one part was refuted it should have instantly discredited everything else, but people were so invested in the idea that it had to have been the Yanks that they latched onto his explanation with both hands, and refuse to let go.