Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[mindlessobserver]

More importantly for Ukraine, they cannot end the war now so long as Russia holds the ability to invade them from three directions via the Donbass, Belarus, and Crimea. Ukraine will never be secure without at least one of these fronts being permanently removed from the board.

Since Russia seems very unwilling to concede any of it, Ukraine has to keep fighting. Until serious talk on the Russian side emerges to offer something, there really can be no negotiation.

I think Russia could conceivably end the war holding onto all of Luhansk east of thr Siversky Donetsk river, and what territory in Donetsk it held prior to 2022, provided it withdraw from Zaporizhia and Kherson, and sign a declaration affirming the independence of Belarus. It would still be an uneasy peace, but it would be one that would remove an immediate Russian threat to Kiev and give them a much more defensible border to the south and East.

Alas this is just pure fantasy. not because Ukraine would never accept it, I think it's actually something they would if the Russians really manage to dkg their heels in. rather it is something Putin cannot offer, because this entire war has been predicated on his insistence that Ukraine is not a real country. He can't negotiate a great power treaty with a fake country

 

[Uranus Pink]

Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Station reactors had been shutdown and cooled months ago. Plus if necessary the reactors can be scramed. The only real danger is the cooling pools for the spent fuel rods running out of water. As there isn't any other way to control those rods temperatures. Although at worst the spent fuel rods are potential dirty bombs if their cooling pools dry up.

 

[AgendaPoster]

Lunacy is back on the menu guys
Tucker returns! The great Episode One Who Dun It video! On Twitter! Freedom of Speech!
No surprises, the TL;DR is Ukraine did it. "Russia suffers more" "Russia owns it".
One conspicuously missing position from each side's rhetoric? "I don't know". Retards literally forgot to say that they don't know some things.
[A]

Bonus gloating from our one and only Glenn Greenwald - "see I told you they are fucking Nazis!"

 

[Cpt. Stud Beefpile]

More importantly for Ukraine, they cannot end the war now so long as Russia holds the ability to invade them from three directions via the Donbass, Belarus, and Crimea. Ukraine will never be secure without at least one of these fronts being permanently removed from the board.

So now we're at the point that things will continue until they're down to conscripts and AK's, essentially? Or straight up run out of fighting men?

It's clear Russia can't end the war by taking all the land but there's still the possibility of going "infantry bankrupt", barring a full-scale NATO response and assuming anyone besides the USA and maybe the UK are even able to provide more than a token force.

Sidenote that the USA's supply of sane, fit straight white men in uniform is also drying up fast....

 

[not william stenchever]

No-one seem to notice strategic importance Baltics and gulf of Finland. There's straight route from St Petersburg to Kaliningrad.

My brother in Christ, russian shipping would get sunk so quickly and hard that even the Poles would be calling Kaliningrad "Old Prussia" again in the event of a fully hot war.

 

[mindlessobserver]

So now we're at the point that things will continue until they're down to conscripts and AK's, essentially? Or straight up run out of fighting men?

No chance of that. At this point Ukraine has a blank check with the west for everything from Main Battle Tanks to attack aircraft. The clock is ticking for Russia really. If they want to salvage something from this war they need to offer something in exchange. And they just can't.

At this point Russia is the side that will lose in a war of attrition.

 

[Scout Trooper]

Lunacy is back on the menu guys
Tucker returns! The great Episode One Who Dun It video! On Twitter! Freedom of Speech!
No surprises, the TL;DR is Ukraine did it. "Russia suffers more" "Russia owns it".
One conspicuously missing position from each side's rhetoric? "I don't know". Retards literally forgot to say that they don't know some things.
[A]
View attachment 5152928
Bonus gloating from our one and only Glenn Greenwald - "see I told you they are fucking Nazis!"

Whenever I start getting too MATI about these loudmouthed hacks, I try to remind myself that we had these same kinds of voices up through December 7, 1941 yet we know how that all turned out.

I wish things had been handled a bit different but the decision to go to war was really the only choice available.

I think in today's environment that we've got enough support in the civilian and defense sectors for this effort that shit like this doesn't really rock the boat enough to make a difference.

On Sunday I was having a discussion with some ex-military types where one guy was trying to make the argument that we shouldn't support Ukraine, going through the standard list of Tucker Carlson talking points and when we got to the "BUT SOME OF THEM HAVE SWASTIKA TATTOOS!" portion another guy said "it's an unfortunate choice of symbols." And these are normies.

I think we've reached a point where the Nazi accusations for the last 6-7 years have made people numb to it so when these faggots think they're making a slam dunk, no one cares. At least no one on the center-right, who I presume this material is at least somewhat directed at.

 

[Glowie]

No chance of that. At this point Ukraine has a blank check with the west for everything from Main Battle Tanks to attack aircraft. The clock is ticking for Russia really. If they want to salvage something from this war they need to offer something in exchange. And they just can't.

At this point Russia is the side that will lose in a war of attrition.

To a Vatnik anything short of Reichstag 2.0 is a loss, no amount of Vodka will help with cope with that.

I mean conscription aged Z posters here who live in Russia fled to Georgia, Chechenya or China. Putin can turn this around and just use nukes to end tranny loving west, amirite?

 

[mindlessobserver]

Whenever I start getting too MATI about these loudmouthed hacks, I try to remind myself that we had these same kinds of voices up through December 7, 1941 yet we know how that all turned out.

I wish things had been handled a bit different but the decision to go to war was really the only choice available.

I think in today's environment that we've got enough support in the civilian and defense sectors for this effort that shit like this doesn't really rock the boat enough to make a difference.

On Sunday I was having a discussion with some ex-military types where one guy was trying to make the argument that we shouldn't support Ukraine, going through the standard list of Tucker Carlson talking points and when we got to the "BUT SOME OF THEM HAVE SWASTIKA TATTOOS!" portion another guy said "it's an unfortunate choice of symbols." And these are normies.

I think we've reached a point where the Nazi accusations for the last 6-7 years have made people numb to it so when these faggots think they're making a slam dunk, no one cares. At least no one on the center-right, who I presume this material is at least somewhat directed at.

It's more anyone who wasn't paying attention in 2014. There is a reason why memes like "where are the proofs" and "substantiate your claims" have lasted from that event up till now. It was infuriating how Russia and their mouth breathing supporters in the west were able to lie so effortlessly about what was going on in Crimea and the Donbass, and it worked well enough to escape all consequences. they even shot down airliner, killed over a hundred Dutch Nationals and had the brass balls to say the Ukrainians did it.

Alot of the Zoomer generation, who sadly are probably the current usual suspects among our mods, were in elementary school for all of this. They never got to experience the eye rolling joy of Russians and Russiaboos pissing on your leg and calling it rain. Hell, one of those Russia boos is spamming my profile page with pictures of expended Patriot rocket motors, claiming them as a win.

 

[WhiteNight]

Lunacy is back on the menu guys
Tucker returns! The great Episode One Who Dun It video! On Twitter! Freedom of Speech!
No surprises, the TL;DR is Ukraine did it. "Russia suffers more" "Russia owns it".

Tucker went all in on this one, much further than I expected. I really didn't see it coming that he would declare definitively that extra-terrestrial aliens are visiting Earth.

For the Lindsey Graham spliced clip that was deboonked last week yet Tucker was still taken in by, see my previous post:

https://kiwifarms.st/posts/16359701

 

[Uranus Pink]

No chance of that. At this point Ukraine has a blank check with the west for everything from Main Battle Tanks to attack aircraft.

While Ukraine may have a blank check, they're not able to buy much as the Western Europe and to a lesser extent the USA went hard at deleting as much of their military inventories during the "Peace Dividend." Plus much of what's left is either needs to be partially or completely rebuilt. Which is largely the issue with tanks and AFVs. Or simply not for sale as the West still hung up on "not poking the nuclear armed bear." As the case with combat aircraft.
Although with OPSEC in place and enforce in addition to the deliberate false intel being broadcasted. Only confirmation shit have arrived in Ukraine and in use is when the Ukrainian govt and AFU releases that information.

 

[Foltest]

That Russia did not even warned their own soldiers who are now drowning, says a lot about how much value they put on them.

 

[CuzinEd]

Calm your tits about the NPP, it's a modern reactor, it's not Chernobyl, it won't explode.

The rest were destroyed.


To expand on this, ZNPP uses VVER reactors, the GEN III version.
They're much better contained than Chernobyl's RMBK reactors and the controls aren't graphite.


As to cause of the dam failure, it looks more like an accident or structural failure at this point. That clean sheer on the turbine side is really weird to me.
Structure was built in 1959, some level of repairs in 2019. With peaked water level it could have gone beyond what it could handle.
Apparently the reservoir held some 17 cubic kilometers of water, wonder how long it will take to drain.

The IAEA said there was no threat. Unless this is just lies to keep people calm. Unless someone says otherwise the IAEA is pretty official.

If the Zaphorizia nuclear plant goes biblical because of Russian incompetence or sabotage I say we just nuke Moscow. There are just some things you don't fuck with and it's clear that the only language vatniggers understand is violence.

No. It doesn't make much since to destroy the world over an incident at a NPP in Ukraine. It wouldn't even be an issue to the US and most of the world. It would be more of a problem for Russia and Ukraine and the surrounding Eastern Europe and Western Europe. It would be like all the other times a NPP has serious issues.

So on the day that Russia accidentally or deliberately destroys the Nova Kakhovka dam, there's breaking news in the Nord Stream case, suggesting that the US knew about a Ukrainian plan to sabotage the pipelines. Of course this will be spun as proof that Ukraine was behind Nord Stream, and distract from the Nova Kakhovka disaster. I guess the Norwegian and US navies are no longer responsible, even though we heard for months that Seymour Hersh had confirmed that it was definitely a NATO plot. Really gets the noggin joggin.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/06/biden-knew-of-plan-to-attack-nord-stream-three-months-before-explosion

Seymour Hersh is a dumbass and everything he said about the Nordstream pipeline was stupid and wrong.

So now we're at the point that things will continue until they're down to conscripts and AK's, essentially? Or straight up run out of fighting men?

It's clear Russia can't end the war by taking all the land but there's still the possibility of going "infantry bankrupt", barring a full-scale NATO response and assuming anyone besides the USA and maybe the UK are even able to provide more than a token force.

Sidenote that the USA's supply of sane, fit straight white men in uniform is also drying up fast....

Russia the US and Ukraine are all suffering from population decline. Russia and Ukraine happen to be suffering the worst. I don't think any country is really going to be sending their best. It would be who has the best of the garbage people in their military. I think the US would be fine. Even our worst doesn't seem to be as bad off as the Russians.

 

[Delicious Diversity]

Tucker went all in on this one, much further than I expected. I really didn't see it coming that he would declare definitively that extra-terrestrial aliens are visiting Earth.

For the Lindsey Graham spliced clip that was deboonked last week yet Tucker was still taken in by, see my previous post:

https://kiwifarms.st/posts/16359701

Tucker Carlson is just a liar. He's not some great populist going against the mainstream media, he IS the msm, has been for years. Just for the right instead of the left. This dude was the biggest cheerleader for the Iraq War and the Patriot Act and all that shit. He does what all msm people do - picks the best lies and omits the worst truths to paint his chosen narrative.

He was repeatedly pushing the doctored casualty figures from the Pentagon leaks to his Fox News audience well after it had been disproved and despite it contradicting all the other casualty estimates in the documents (Did he read them all? Did he read any of them?). I'm not surprised to hear him pushing spliced clips of Lindsay Graham to again lie to his viewers.

For him to claim that Ukraine did this and it hurts Russia the most however is ridiculous. How on Earth does Ukraine benefit from having a vast portion of its sovereign territory flooded and without power, its nuclear plant in danger, and the Kherson front effectively removed as a vector of attack for their counteroffensive? This only makes their job way harder.

Don't tell me Tucker actually believes Russia cares about the people of Kherson on their side of the Dnieper...

They care about them as much as they cared about the people of Mariupol, a city they leveled completely. They will burn their homes and salt the soil out of spite if they have to leave that land.

 

[Oxyjen]

Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Station reactors had been shutdown and cooled months ago. Plus if necessary the reactors can be scramed.

They have been shut down for months, but these are 6 3GW reactors so there is still 10s of megawatts of heat being generated, which has to be actively cooled. That’s what “cool shutdown” means.

“scram” is irellevant, it means suddenly inserting the control rods. The controls rods are already fully inserted, since it was shut down.

The only real danger is the cooling pools for the spent fuel rods running out of water. As there isn't any other way to control those rods temperatures. Although at worst the spent fuel rods are potential dirty bombs if their cooling pools dry up.

That’s one of the dangers, but the fuel assemblies still in the reactors could also cause disaster level release of radiation if it’s left completely un-cooled.

The IAEA said there was no threat. Unless this is just lies to keep people calm. Unless someone says otherwise the IAEA is pretty official.

That’s false - they say there is *no immediate threat* - only if the technicians are still able to keep cooling water flowing by whatever means possible.




Basically, this is saying what I said: IF the cooling totally stops, due to further intentional or unintentional actions, there will be a fuel melt and a disaster.

 

[MS Paint Gigachad]

Tucker Carlson is just a liar. He's not some great populist going against the mainstream media, he IS the msm, has been for years. Just for the right instead of the left. This dude was the biggest cheerleader for the Iraq War and the Patriot Act and all that shit. He does what all msm people do - picks the best lies and omits the worst truths to paint his chosen narrative.

I look him up on wikipedia. Tucker's first job was in journalism, and it's basically been non stop journalism since then. There really is something to be said about figures who shout "these guys dont care and cannot sympathize with you" down from ivory towers of their own.

 

[teriyakiburns]

I look him up on wikipedia. Tucker's first job was in journalism, and it's basically been non stop journalism since then. There really is something to be said about figures who shout "these guys dont care and cannot sympathize with you" down from ivory towers of their own.

Tucker was fun when he was tweaking true science! believers. Less fun now he's become his own brand of that.

 

[Oxyjen]

Tucker went all in on this one, much further than I expected. I really didn't see it coming that he would declare definitively that extra-terrestrial aliens are visiting Earth.

For the Lindsey Graham spliced clip that was deboonked last week yet Tucker was still taken in by, see my previous post:

https://kiwifarms.st/posts/16359701

I think it’s a mistake to think Tucker is “taken in” by stuff like this. He knows it’s false, he is using it to deceive his audience. He is fully pro-Putin, for whatever reason. It’s the same reason he did everything he could to help Trump into power despite hating the man.

 

[DumbDude43]

He is fully pro-Putin, for whatever reason.

probably for the same reason as most other putin fans in the west
>hmm these leftoids who hate me spent the last 10 years declaring putin their greatest enemy
>enemy of my enemy is my friend
>based putin is my friend wtf i love russia now

the only alternative would be that he's paid off by russia, but frankly i believe that a gigantic network like fox news is too big and too expensive for russia to bribe like that

 

[Super Saiyan Hitler]

I think it’s a mistake to think Tucker is “taken in” by stuff like this. He knows it’s false, he is using it to deceive his audience. He is fully pro-Putin, for whatever reason. It’s the same reason he did everything he could to help Trump into power despite hating the man.

According to private messages cited in the Dominion lawsuit, Tucker doubted the 2020 election fraud claims and later privately admitted that they were wrong, but he continued to host the likes of Sidney Powell on his show. When Kanye was off his meds, Tucker interviewed him and edited out Kanye's schizo beliefs about Jesus talking to him and his children being replaced by clones.

It's possible that Tucker believes what he's saying now, but we know that he will lie for profit. The Schizo Right has unfortunately been a growing market in the last decade, and he's positioned to take full advantage of it now that he got more street cred after being fired by the Illuminati reptilians at Fox.

Tucker's support of Trump may be similarly motivated by profit, or a fear that Trump could destroy him if he turned against him.