Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[mindlessobserver]

Historically, it takes very little motivation for the Poles to make Russian men an endangered species. If presented with an opportunity, I can imagine that 'total war' on Ukraine may trigger Poles to find some kind of doctrinal reason to show up. Who's going to sanction them?

More Broadly, NATO does technically allow for member states to go off the reservation. There is nothing in the NATO charter that prohibits a country going to war on its own initiative. The corrolary though is that country has to deal with the consequences alone.

 

[WolfeTone]

 

[World in Scarlet]

Is there any more on that? like videos or some articles

I don't have any specific articles on hand, but it's not a secret. If you check the Wagner Wikipedia article you'll see it mentioned, otherwise google a country that is listed as a Wagner deployment zone + Wagner + mining/oil and you'll find articles about it. It's not always in the open, they sometimes use shell companies, but it's pretty overt.
There was a famous incident in Syria where Wagner (and Syrian) forces tried to capture a gas field and got annihilated by Americans. Here's an article that gives some relevant context to that event.

Only in the manner of 4x the population and massive materiel quantity advantage. Russia has the ability to just full Iran martyr brigade and send men faster than the Ukrainians can send bullets.

The Russian army is smaller now than it was pre-invasion in terms of AFV and artillery, and what they have is of much lower quality, but it probably has more men in the field thanks to the 300k called up and the unknown number of convicts and "volunteers" and people they grabbed off the street in the occupied regions. Despite that, Ukraine actually has more men in the field, and we saw in early 2022 what happens when Russians just drive forward and encounter even just light infantry. Not to mention the Russians seem to suffer extreme morale issues and can barely keep many of their soldiers in place (I think barrier troops and torture dungeons for own troops are a bad sign for a modern army).
There's many posts by Russian milbloggers and soldiers on social media that state that many Russian frontline troops lack basic equipment too. Whether that equipment is stolen by their logistics people or never existed is another question. I don't think it's far fetched to think that the Russians struggle with providing infantry equipment, especially with how much of that allegedly turned out to have been stolen.

The question is "If they do that, completely burn their military to take Ukraine, what happens?"

If this war continues into 2024, we will find out, because with current rates of Russian attrition, by that point the inheritance of Soviet ammunition and vehicles will be gone and replacements will be down to whatever is actually produced by the Russian state, which was what, 30 tanks a month and maybe 1000 artillery shells a day? And Ukraine hasn't even tried out their fancy new NATO vehicles yet, nor received F-16 and more importantly, the missiles those can use to force Russians to disperse everything within hundreds of kilometres of the Ukrainian lines.

 

[CuzinEd]

I look him up on wikipedia. Tucker's first job was in journalism, and it's basically been non stop journalism since then. There really is something to be said about figures who shout "these guys dont care and cannot sympathize with you" down from ivory towers of their own.

Tucker is a Swanson heir. The company that makes those shitty T.V. Dinners some people eat. Though over the years the frozen TV dinner selection has gotten smaller because people avoid that garbage. But they are still there. If you are an American you might know about the Swanson frozen food. It's the same company that makes those shitty Hungry Man dinners. Tucker is a rich guy. He wants to stay rich. People often say things like "(insert rich persons name here) has fuck you money". They are totally wrong. Rich people live rich people lifetstyles so they have to constantly bring in money to support that lifestyle. They just can't fuck off and live off the money they have because they spend so much they would go broke. They can't live amongst the peasants. They have to pay for security because people might kidnap them and hold them for ransom and shit like that. They have a 20 bedroom house with the bills to go along with. They have to constantly make money.

According to private messages cited in the Dominion lawsuit, Tucker doubted the 2020 election fraud claims and later privately admitted that they were wrong, but he continued to host the likes of Sidney Powell on his show. When Kanye was off his meds, Tucker interviewed him and edited out Kanye's schizo beliefs about Jesus talking to him and his children being replaced by clones.

It's possible that Tucker believes what he's saying now, but we know that he will lie for profit. The Schizo Right has unfortunately been a growing market in the last decade, and he's positioned to take full advantage of it now that he got more street cred after being fired by the Illuminati reptilians at Fox.

Tucker's support of Trump may be similarly motivated by profit, or a fear that Trump could destroy him if he turned against him.

View attachment 5153188

The Dominion lawsuit caused the release of texts between Tucker and someone at Fox. Tucker doesn't really like Trump. Tucker pretends to like Trump because Trump is popular and powerful. Pretending to like Trump is financially beneficial. Tucker said if they weren't nice to Trump he could destroy them. Meaning Tucker and Fox. Trump can do it. Tucker isn't wrong about that. But Trump is more pragmatic. If Tucker can be useful to Trump then Trump will use him. They both use each other. It's like those birds that sit on the backs of rhinos and pick parasites off them and they alert the rhinos when there is danger around. One helps the other.

Tucker will run with stories he doesn't believe. He shills for the uniparty's controlled opposition stance.
Blind squirrel, nuts, etc



Putin would not have wanted to fuck around with Trump because there was high chance of finding out. OTOH, in the alternate universe where Trump got a second term, Putin would likely be positioning now for his "SMO". and that would mean the T-14 would be 4 more years further along and possibly in full-scale production lol I can't even type that with a straight face.

He might also decide that Trump is a lame duck who won't dick over his party's candidate and do an Ossentia like with Dubya. And like Ossentia, that might have meant France would get there first and propose a 'peace deal' where Russia gets half the country and Ukraine gets nothing.

I don't think it was because Trump was willing to start a war. Though Trump gave off that impression I imagine. Especially with having Bolton around. Trump said it's why he picked Bolton. Bolton was an idiot but people were worried about him getting Trump to take military actions. Trump was more of an unknown to the Russians and I think that bothered them more. Trump was never a politician so they probably didn't have any information on him. Trump winning in 2016 was a complete surprise to everyone except his supporters. The Democrats and the Russians.

So what are the odds that Russia actually intentionally did this? It makes it hard for the Ukrainians to counterattack across the river, but if what I've heard about Russian troops stationed on the bank being wiped out and water supply to Crimea being affected are true, along with affecting agriculture and pissing off the international community even more, it feels like they've kind of stomped on their own dick a bit here. I saw some speculation that the Russians were just going to release a bit of water to take out Ukraine troops on the islands downriver but the damage to the dam made it fall apart while they were doing this, or just that the damage to the dam from both sides fighting near it caused it to fail when enough water was in the reservoir and Russia did nothing to intentionally cause it, and right now I side with either of those theories more than an intentional demolition by the Russians because it just seems so stupid and self-destructive even for them. But who knows, maybe we're seeing a new nadir in Russian intelligence here. I hope more evidence surfaces either way in the coming days.

After watching a few videos on it I don't think it was the Russians or Ukrainians. I think the dam just collapsed. It doesn't make sense for either side to blow it up. It doesn't really help either side. It actually seems to hit Russia harder.

 

[Snekposter]

Which is blatant cope. When has a great power NOT armed a lesser power that finds itself fighting a strategic rival? Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Shiite Militias like the Mahdi Army and the Taliban ended up with a suspiciously large number of modern RPG's and so on. Largely supplied from Russia and funneled through Iran. Much like how so much US shit ended up in Ukraine Via Poland and the Baltics. Arms supplying is nothing new. What IS new is how advanced the toys being provided this time around is. That is not a function of fear over Russian Retaliation but rather a greater trust on the part of the USA for the party receiving the toys. In the case of the Soviet-Afghan War, we were supplying a bunch of goat fucking insurgents. So even the Stinger Missiles were controversial. In this case we are supplying an actual State actor so the concerns mitigated about what the shit will be used for.

This is literally the oldest trick in the book. Well before France actually entered the Revolutionary War they were supplying Charleville muskets to the colonists because having someone else fight for you is an astoundingly cheap way of waging war. Spain helped out a fair bit, too, and I think even the Prussians sent over some rifles because nobody fucking liked the UK in the slightest at that point in time. Unlike Russia they knew damn well what they had done to earn Europe's ire, namely pick fights with everyone inside living memory, so they were more fatigued by matters than surprised or even disappointed.

advanced intelligence

X to Doubt. As to the autoloader, they're expensive, one more thing to go wrong and need maintenance, and are just now starting to catch up to a well-trained loader in terms of fire rate. A good Abrams loader can chuck a round in the breech every five seconds... about twice the rate of a Russian carousel autoloader. Systems have gotten better, especially Western ones... but they're still complex, expensive, and need maintenance, and if it jams or fails in combat you still need a way to manually load thanks to the US Army insisting on backups.

Oh it will definitely be different. The X is basically just General Dynamics taking all the shit they've heard the army is considering in a future tank and slapping it in one hull to demo how they work. Even they admit it's not an actual proposed variant as is. It'll be interesting to see how the Ukraine stuff shapes it, especially once we have combat data from Western tanks against Russia's nominal best.
>inb4 Russia isn't sending their best cope

That, and its them dunking on the Russians. "Oh yeah, well here's our super-tech RTS wankfest wunderwaffe!"

Hell, one of those Russia boos is spamming my profile page with pictures of expended Patriot rocket motors, claiming them as a win.

Funny how its the same person who breaks containment to slap the Dumb sticker on shit that makes Russia look bad.

Russia does diplomacy with the third world by giving money or materiel to corrupt dictators in return for rhetorical support, so I doubt anything will change. The Third Wold filth will keep blaming the devil west and imperialism for all their woes while robbing their own populations into starvation.

And then Arab Spring 2 happens because death by bullet is quicker and easier than death by starvation.

 

[DumbDude43]

It will be interesting to see if the third world changes its tune politically in regard to Ukraine; Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already seriously disrupted their essential supply of grain to keep their rapidly increasing populations happy. Russia has now placed them in further jeopardy, with many nations seriously looking at famines in the near-future.

third worlders are dumb as bricks
all it takes is putin dropping some "imperialists from europe are hoarding all the food for themselves and keep prices high" story and they'll lap it up

 

[Uranus Pink]

More Broadly, NATO does technically allow for member states to go off the reservation. There is nothing in the NATO charter that prohibits a country going to war on its own initiative. The corrolary though is that country has to deal with the consequences alone.

Except in this case all bets are off as to how many NATO members will join Poland in leaving the reservation.

 

[Ghostse]

If this war continues into 2024, we will find out, because with current rates of Russian attrition, by that point the inheritance of Soviet ammunition and vehicles will be gone and replacements will be down to whatever is actually produced by the Russian state, which was what, 30 tanks a month and maybe 1000 artillery shells a day? And Ukraine hasn't even tried out their fancy new NATO vehicles yet, nor received F-16 and more importantly, the missiles those can use to force Russians to disperse everything within hundreds of kilometres of the Ukrainian lines.

Again, I want to remind you that Tanks are very rarely total kills. Even pringles-can T-72s can usually be field repaired with a new turret, especially if there's another T-72 to cannibalize. And both sides are doing the usual thing of counting a mission kill as a kill.

The Russian Airforce still has 1200 fighter-bombers. Yes, various ages, upgrades, and questionable service readiness, but that's still 1200 platforms. Russia has been using anti-ship/anti-AWACs missiles against the Ukraininan airforce to good effect; its a questionable use of resources but 3, 5 or 10 long-range missiles are still cheaper than a jet.
To put this in perspective: The F-16 is far from state of the art but its on the table. The most F-16's ever produced in one year was a little over 400. Russia also has, at last count, some 8000 S-300 missiles; the S-300 is also far from state of the art, but an S-300 launch is a credible threat to an F-16. So that means that if 1 year's worth of F-16 production was sent to Ukraine, Russia would just need to do a 20:1 kill ratio to with S-300s to wipe that out.

yes its all Soviet stockpiles, but people really underestimate the scale of those stockpiles.

It is an utter humiliating embarrassment for Russia to be deploying T-55s. But they've got hundreds of them, and I'd rather have a T-55 aiming at my enemy than at me.

There was a famous incident in Syria where Wagner (and Syrian) forces tried to capture a gas field and got annihilated by Americans. Here's an article that gives some relevant context to that event.

Daily reminder that the crew that BTFO was a bunch of Syrian militia and a crew of Wagner 2nd stringers tardherders nearing contract time out whose death benefits payout was less than the contract completion bonus.

Its dangerous to underestimate Wagner's ex-SF core troops.

Except in this case all bets are off as to how many NATO members will join Poland in leaving the reservation.

I would assume every Baltic State.

 

[draggs]

Vatniks say HIMARS is being used "liberally" to hit Zapo front lines

Yet every HIMARS ever built has been destroyed 7 times over by glorious Russian heroes

 

[MS Paint Gigachad]

Vatniks say HIMARS is being used "liberally" to hit Zapo front lines

Yet every HIMARS ever built has been destroyed 7 times over by glorious Russian heroes

That's just vatnik for you.
Every weapon supplied simultaneously has been destroyed 92 times over, is such a great escalation that it justifies a fully loaded SS18 "Satan" on New York, is completely useless, has been supplied in gamechanging quantities which are too small to make a difference

 

[mindlessobserver]

There is almost complete radio silence in the western press about what is going on along the front. By all accounts the Ukrainians are unleashing holy hell. If the Vatnik telegram accounts are to be believed. In the media its "well, something is going on to be sure, but we don't know what". Its rather frightening how captured the media in the west has become that they can be told to shut up and all of them do.

 

[Not At All A Lizard]

To be fair, most western media do absolutely zero of their own research. If there's not an official press release and there's nobody on Twitter to get the news from, they have nothing to report.

That, and the dam aftermath is a really easy and juicy humanitarian/ecological story to cover the ukraine-pages with, way more up the alley of your average virtue signalling journotard.

 

[World in Scarlet]

To put this in perspective: The F-16 is far from state of the art but its on the table. The most F-16's ever produced in one year was a little over 400. Russia also has, at last count, some 8000 S-300 missiles; the S-300 is also far from state of the art, but an S-300 launch is a credible threat to an F-16. So that means that if 1 year's worth of F-16 production was sent to Ukraine, Russia would just need to do a 20:1 kill ratio to with S-300s to wipe that out.

From what I read the point of the F-16 is not to do close air support, but to fully utilize modern NATO missiles, fired from long range, forcing the Russians to distribute their logistics and be much more mobile with everything of value as well as aid with defense against cruise missiles deep inside Ukraine.

 

[JosephStalin]

Re the destruction of the dam, you don't blow up such dams if you are winning the war. You do such things when you know you cannot win, will need to pull back, and then go scorched-earth. Russia cannot even defend their borders. For the first time since World War II, saw a line of cars fleeing a Russian city and saw Moscow attacked from the skies. Putin needs to declare victory and leave before more shit happens in Moscow and the Rodina.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Its rather frightening how captured the media in the west has become that they can be told to shut up and all of them do.

Not a bad thing; the UK state media radio (BBC Radio) once infamously gave away the impending British assault that led to the Battle of Goose Green during the Falklands War. For now, we have to ironically rely on Russian Telegram channels for information.

 

[Ghostse]

There is almost complete radio silence in the western press about what is going on along the front. By all accounts the Ukrainians are unleashing holy hell. If the Vatnik telegram accounts are to be believed. In the media its "well, something is going on to be sure, but we don't know what". Its rather frightening how captured the media in the west has become that they can be told to shut up and all of them do.

No one credible is embedded with units in a war like this. This isn't Iraq where ivy-league faggots will be protected with body armor while they play war completely safe with 50 guys to protect them from stray rounds as they stay 5 miles back from any actual heavy combat and sneaking out dispatches past Press Relations to pwn Dubya.

We don't have any utter badasses anymore who would be out in the shit, and would not view the loss of an eye as an impediment to submitting their story on time.

OTOH, tbcf, its WWI. The war reporting would be "huddled in trench during 10 hours of explosions" on endless repeat.

Anyone is tagging along with any units even near the front going to be under a blackout, and will respect that or will likely end up in prison (or more likely a ditch) because again, this isn't Fallujah or even Syria and Russia is scraping for anything to geolocate Ukrainian forces.
And all of their three-letter affliated "sources choosing to withhold their names" story feeders are also sitting on analysis and no sharing because Russian battlespace awareness is shit and no one is going to give them any favors.

So I'm not expecting to see anything solid for about at least a month, like Kharkiv.

To be fair, most western media do absolutely zero of their own research. If there's not an official press release and there's nobody on Twitter to get the news from, they have nothing to report.

That, and the dam aftermath is a really easy and juicy humanitarian/ecological story to cover the ukraine-pages with, way more up the alley of your average virtue signalling journotard.

And less odds of catching a mortar reporting on people stuck on rooftops.

From what I read the point of the F-16 is not to do close air support, but to fully utilize modern NATO missiles, fired from long range, forcing the Russians to distribute their logistics and be much more mobile with everything of value as well as aid with defense against cruise missiles deep inside Ukraine.

Firstly, I just using the F-16 as a thought experiment about the scale of Russian stockpiles and what it would take to fully deplete them.

Secondly, if the F-16s will be trying to hit Russian logistics deep enough to matter, they will be taking S-300 and very likely S-400 SAM fire as well as stand-off attacks from Russian CAP. Every mission will be hairy.
But again, I didn't address actually needing to go toe-to-toe with the entire airspace components of the Russian military because its not about a serious viable strategic exercise, its about getting minds around just how much shit Russia has - its not top-of-the-line but it is still lethal on a modern battlefield. It'll never be depleted, it'll only be lowered to levels that see a reduced frequency in use.
Or I guess another way to put this:
If the US called in a favor with every country that has gotten an F-16, and assembled the entire output of the 44 year production run for a massive air assault, that'd be about 4,000 airframes and Russia would still have 2 S-300 missiles to lob at every plane.
and that's before you get to their actual planes

And lastly, everything that can fly in Ukraine is doing CAS in one way or another. All of Ukraine is reachable by Russian weapons.

 

[Scout Trooper]

Secondly, if the F-16s will be trying to hit Russian logistics deep enough to matter, they will be taking S-300 and very likely S-400 SAM fire as well as stand-off attacks from Russian CAP. Every mission will be hairy.

Has there been any discussion of providing HARM missiles for SEAD/DEAD or do the Russian TTPs effectively counter any of our HARM armaments?

I seem to recall something about the Russians just flicking on the radar intermittently so that they're less detectable.

 

[East_Clintwood]

Has there been any discussion of providing HARM missiles for SEAD/DEAD or do the Russian TTPs effectively counter any of our HARM armaments?

They already have AGM-88s, but would make sense to give them more with F-16s which can almost certainly use them more effectively than the jury-rigged MiG-29s they're using now.

 

[Jewthulhu]

Re the destruction of the dam, you don't blow up such dams if you are winning the war. You do such things when you know you cannot win, will need to pull back, and then go scorched-earth. Russia cannot even defend their borders. For the first time since World War II, saw a line of cars fleeing a Russian city and saw Moscow attacked from the skies. Putin needs to declare victory and leave before more shit happens in Moscow and the Rodina.

I mean, if the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, you do. Especially with a country like Russia where civcas and undue suffering is a non-issue. Historically, breaking dams and flooding shit is a great way to bog down armored pushes, and if Ukraine got a whole bunch of fancy new armor (that all got destroyed multiple times over before it arrived) and is preparing for an offensive, flooding an area is a great way hinder an offensive.

I'm not going to pretend to know whodunnit, but wanted to point out that people don't hold punches during a war unless there's a reason to.

 

[JosephStalin]

They already have AGM-88s, but would make sense to give them more with F-16s which can almost certainly use them more effectively than the jury-rigged MiG-29s they're using now.

Believe by the time this thing is over Ukraine will have a bunch of older-model F-16s and a bunch of a certain model of the M-1 tank.