Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Ookoo Squad]

Wow, that's a leap even for the Moscow Church. Pretty sure even the most "out there" protestant denominations accept Augustine's teachings as doctrinal. Christianity and its relationship to War has been established doctrine for almost 2,000 years. War is a facet of living in a fallen world. The church must on principle be opposed to war. Yet ready to fight if there is no other choice. Such as if the Church itself is assailed by the infidel and only war may preserve the faith.

Pacifism on its face however is an aspiration to the divine ideal. Quite a few monks and saints swore themselves to non violence like Justin the Martyr. The idea that a Patriarchate would say Pacifism itself is incompatible with Christianity is borderline heresy. In fact War has been the incompatible state that the Christian church has had to spend a great deal of time parsing out and justifying.

A lot of based Ordodogs aren't too big on Augustine, FYI. And for some of the most b-b-based, "not too big" means "blame for everything wrong with Western Christianity". He takes a lot of flak for the filioque clause, and original sin.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Found this, from Peter Zeihan. Russian demographics come 2025. Ideally, you want a pyramid shape here.

Russia = fucked. Sadly, Ukraine is no better. As an aside, learned the Chinese demographic bust happened much earlier than they first admitted.

View attachment 5165384

Some more interesting information on the state of Russian demographics, one from the Institute For the Study of War:

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)


A Russian State Duma bill aimed at raising the conscription age suggests that the Kremlin may be aiming to shield specific generations from the demographic and social impacts of the war in Ukraine. The Russian State Duma adopted the first reading of a bill introducing an incremental increase of the military service draft age.[46] The bill proposes that the draft age range will be 19-30 years old in 2024, 20 to 30 years old in 2025, and 21 to 30 years old in 2026. The bill also stipulates that those aged 18 and older can still join the Russian military regardless of the draft age brackets. ISW previously assessed that the gradual increase in the minimum age of conscripts could suggest that the Kremlin is targeting the generation currently suffering losses due to the war in Ukraine and attempting to shield the younger generation from economic, social, and demographic impact of the war.[47]


The Kremlin continues efforts to incentivize foreigners to serve in the Russian military. The Russian State Duma adopted the second reading of a bill aimed at simplifying the process of issuing residence permits to foreign highly skilled workers who signed contracts with the Russian military since the start of the war in February 2022.[48] The law will only apply to highly skilled workers who have already worked in Russia in their specialties for a minimum of two years.[49] ISW has previously reported on Russian legislation aimed at incentivizing military service, which now appears to be extending to incorporate foreigners living in Russia.[50]

And also again from Peter Zeihan:

https://youtu.be/KXHZ0IH2rOk

I think that this is possibly the most damning reason as to why Russian CANNOT win the war through just a simple strategy of attrition of 4-1 in their favor, if they are unwilling to field (and lose) their youngest eligible military aged men.

 

[mindlessobserver]

A few months ago I opined that the hail mary move of Ukraine would not be in Donetsk, Luhansk or Zaporizhia, but in Kherson, by forcibly crossing the Dnieper in an amphibious assault.

Potential happening in Nova Kakhovka right now. Flares, explosions, and fully automatic gunfire.

Telegram is going apeshit. Apparently the Ukrainians are launching a full forced offensive over the river using boats and landing craft. I'll admit I want to believe because I had idly assumed this may be what they will do, so I am biased as all get out. But holy fuck. Its fucking Omaha Beach at Nova Kakhovka right now. Do you want to know what hundreds of small arms rifles firing at the same time sounds like? Video related.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

A few months ago I opined that the hail mary move of Ukraine would not be in Donetsk, Luhansk or Zaporizhia, but in Kherson, by forcibly crossing the Dnieper in an amphibious assault.

Potential happening in Nova Kakhovka right now. Flares, explosions, and fully automatic gunfire.

View attachment 5165612

Telegram is going apeshit. Apparently the Ukrainians are launching a full forced offensive over the river using boats and landing craft. I'll admit I want to believe because I had idly assumed this may be what they will do, so I am biased as all get out. But holy fuck. Its fucking Omaha Beach at Nova Kakhovka right now. Do you want to know what hundreds of small arms rifles firing at the same time sounds like? Video related.

View attachment 5165625

Ironically, that dam collapsing, whether on purpose or by accident, may have helped Ukraine by wiping out existing Russian fortifications and killing scores of Russian troops who lacked forewarning. Add to the fact that Russia was probably lured into a false sense of security, since they believed that the flood would make a subsequent invasion difficult if not impossible, leading to the Russian Army further pulling troops from that front, and you have a recipe for disaster on Russia's hands.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Ironically, that dam collapsing, whether on purpose or by accident, may have helped Ukraine by wiping out existing Russian fortifications and killing scores of Russian troops who lacked forewarning. Add to the fact that Russia was probably lured into a false sense of security, since they believed that the flood would make a subsequent invasion difficult if not impossible, leading to the Russian Army further pulling troops from that front, and you have a recipe for disaster on Russia's hands.

It would be chefs kiss. The forces on the left bank facing Kherson would have to have retreated away from Kherson city proper, while the flooding would have allowed, for example, Khersons municipal ferries to sail all the way up river to Nova Khakovka in order to act as Landing Ship Tanks to ferry troops across rather quickly. Possibly even vehicles. All the news in the western press clapped like seals about how blowing the dam meant Ukraine could NEVER attack in this direction.

Its too early to say what's actually going on, but I am cautiously hype. If this war has taught us anything, its every bone headed Russian play has always backfired miserably. If Ukraine is actually forcing a river crossing, after Russia blew the dam, forced their own troops to abandon front line entrenchments and then sent the regulars to fight the "real" offensive in Zaporizhia I will go to my grave laughing.

That said, it just seems too good to be true. Russia cannot possibly be so dumb as to abandon the Kherson front entirely, right?

Per Twitter, Fighting around the government center of Nova Kakhovka

https://twitter.com/Vijesti11111/status/1669524607034880003

 

[Scout Trooper]

So far only seeing these exact 2 videos posted anywhere. Hoping it's true, prudent, and going well but time will tell.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Supposedly sources on Telegram/Twitter are claiming its a nothingburger and that Russians are inventing fake targets to shoot at.

Still trying to track down the original source...

A few months ago I opined that the hail mary move of Ukraine would not be in Donetsk, Luhansk or Zaporizhia, but in Kherson, by forcibly crossing the Dnieper in an amphibious assault.

I wouldn't call it a "Hail Mary" on the side of Ukraine.
The biggest factor acting against Ukraine is time before their western allies start cutting military aid and demanding muh peez deal, which could be 6 months from now or could be never. Beyond that (and civilian concerns) the ball is in their court to set the pace of taking back their country at their most opportune convenience.

The nexus of desperation is on Russia to try and pull a W out of this clusterfuck

 

[Ghostse]

A few months ago I opined that the hail mary move of Ukraine would not be in Donetsk, Luhansk or Zaporizhia, but in Kherson, by forcibly crossing the Dnieper in an amphibious assault.

Potential happening in Nova Kakhovka right now. Flares, explosions, and fully automatic gunfire.

Big if true, and makes the destruction of the Melitopol rail bridge a much bigger deal (then again makes the leaving the Kersch bridge intact more of a question). I wonder if its a feint/distraction because the wonking I heard was any armor crossing there is on a one-way trip because bridging isn't going to be an option till early august - and that's providing you can find new piling foundations and southern bridgeheads. Though being that its right on the dam, it'd be possible to bridge north of the blown damn, as that's only getting drier.

It would also be a YUGE intel failing on the part of russia because if they're using boats, that means the flotilla had to either be hidden well enough Russian intelligence missed it, or Ukraine had them hidden somewhere and did a logistics miracle to get them in position.

Regardless
This is why you maintain OPSEC even if it means the opposition's telegram channels get a week or two of free circle jerk because no information is coming out from your side

And before we make the vatnik mistake of overconfidence, this is extremely high-risk and likely to result in stranded units/troops/armor. Reinforcements are going to be slow in arriving and very vulnerable to fire or aircraft. They are also going to be having a hell of time with likely limited artillery and far from a geographic barrier or friendly territory to hold their flank.
This could be a high-casualty feint to peel forces back from Zaporizhzhia.
I do not envy the yooks doing the attacking.

My gut says they are rope-a-doping Russia again and will strike the big blow in north where its been quiet.

Ironically, that dam collapsing, whether on purpose or by accident, may have helped Ukraine by wiping out existing Russian fortifications and killing scores of Russian troops who lacked forewarning. Add to the fact that Russia was probably lured into a false sense of security, since they believed that the flood would make a subsequent invasion difficult if not impossible, leading to the Russian Army further pulling troops from that front, and you have a recipe for disaster on Russia's hands.

Well the true 'self own' moment there is that with the Dam already blown, there is no need to worry "what happens if Russia blows the damn as a defensive measure" (like they did, again, in )

That is, if this works, and if this opens a new area of the frontline - one where the rails to it have been destroyed (and possibly repaired) - it might have only become feasible BECAUSE Russia panicked and blew their sapper charges.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

I don't believe it, but I'm also not a Ukrainian military commander.

Maybe the vatnigs are right and Ukraine is led by negative -500 IQ subhumans who are foolish enough to throw away perfectly good men and materiel in poorly-planned counter-offensives and/or maybe the Ukeniks are right and Ukraine is now basically a peer force to the US capable of pulling off Inchon-tier shenanigans in the enemy's rear.

I'm still taking this development with a grain of salt, though.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Full agreement. The idea of an amphibious assault on occupied kherson was always the "out there" scenario. We will know more in the morning. The cope thread is oddly silent. Always a good sign.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

I think that this is possibly the most damning reason as to why Russian CANNOT win the war through just a simple strategy of attrition of 4-1 in their favor, if they are unwilling to field (and lose) their youngest eligible military aged men.

The moment they start grinding down kids (most get conscripted in mandatory service as young as 18-20), it stops being a "special operation" and becomes a very real war for a lot of people. I don't think Putin wants that.
Promise not to send these kids in combat is the last one he didn't ostensibly break (even though we know it's been happening since the start of the war in some capacity, likely thanks to the "creativity" of commanders in place).

 

[NSJAP]

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

This is a fairly interesting interview with a Right Sector guy who's been fighting since 2014. The interviewer presses him on some 'Western values' type questions towards the end. His views strike me as pretty normie from the perspective of a Western conservative. Marriage is a man and a woman, everyone has equal rights already, activists complain because it's a hustle for them, "WASP" culture (he calls it that) is preferable to Chinese hegemony, etc.

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

The moment they start grinding down kids (most get conscripted in mandatory service as young as 18-20), it stops being a "special operation" and becomes a very real war for a lot of people. I don't think Putin wants that.

Definitely. The last time Russia was stuck in a grinding war in Eastern Europe with unclear purpose and no explicit progress after years of fighting, the Revolution happened.

 

[AgendaPoster]

This is a fairly interesting interview with a Right Sector guy who's been fighting since 2014. The interviewer presses him on some 'Western values' type questions towards the end. His views strike me as pretty normie from the perspective of a Western conservative. Marriage is a man and a woman, everyone has equal rights already, activists complain because it's a hustle for them, "WASP" culture (he calls it that) is preferable to Chinese hegemony, etc.

99% of Dylan Burns' audience would never tolerate these views inside their American or European cities, I find it comical that these progressives contort so much to justify why they support a struggle for national identity and survival and their overlooking of the socially right wing views of many of its soldiers.

 

[WhiteNight]

Marriage is a man and a woman, everyone has equal rights already,

In other words, he's a far-right neo-Nazi.

 

[AgendaPoster]

It's the weekend, and according to tradition, it means you guys get to experience another Glenn Greenwald video:

https://rumble.com/v2ufeva-system-update-show-100.html

Listen carefully, Victoria Nuland gets mentions again. This is big.
Glenn also acknowledges that invading is bad. That took 5 seconds of Russian criticism lads. In a 80 mins video. So you can see his takes are well balanced and calling Glenn a pro-Russian Putin dick suckler is totally a vicious attempt to silence his dissent to the US Security State, you neocon shills.
Also in the news, I just don't know who is Jewing who anymore. Much like the above quarrel between two Jews, here's some of the goyim species seeking Jewish understanding, love and forgiveness. You can dunk ferociously on the 4th Ukroreich and its Collective Zapadoid allies, but you don't get to touch the speshuls, nuh-uh.
How many Jewish friends do YOU have, after all?
[A]

 

[Scout Trooper]

It's the weekend, and according to tradition, it means you guys get to experience another Glenn Greenwald video:

https://rumble.com/v2ufeva-system-update-show-100.html

View attachment 5166734
Listen carefully, Victoria Nuland gets mentions again. This is big.
Glenn also acknowledges that invading is bad. That took 5 seconds of Russian criticism lads. In a 80 mins video. So you can see his takes are well balanced and calling Glenn a pro-Russian Putin dick suckler is totally a vicious attempt to silence his dissent to the US Security State, you neocon shills.
Also in the news, I just don't know who is Jewing who anymore. Much like the above quarrel between two Jews, here's some of the goyim species seeking Jewish understanding, love and forgiveness. You can dunk ferociously on the 4th Ukroreich and its Collective Zapadoid allies, but you don't get to touch the speshuls, nuh-uh.
How many Jewish friends do YOU have, after all?
[A]
View attachment 5166755

I hope this new tactic of comparing Ukraine to Iraq or Afghanistan literally never stops.

It's one of the more bafflingly stupid rhetorical tactics these retards are employing, about one notch below smearing themselves in shit and squirming around on the floor making honking noises.

 

[WhiteNight]

Russia simp Doug Macgregor declares that the intelligence consensus is that Ukraine blew up the NK dam:

He goes on to say that sources he trusts have told him that Victoria Nuland herself approved the destruction of the dam. A therapist needs to ask these Greenwalds and Macgregors, is Victoria Nuland in the room with us right now?

Macgregor goes on to say that the loss of the dam hurts the Ukrainians (and helps the Russians), which raises the obvious question as to why they would do it. Such logic may be too complex for old Macgregor.

In reality, there are strong arguments that Ukraine had not even the ability to blow up the dam due to lacking physical access to it.

Also in the news, I just don't know who is Jewing who anymore. Much like the above quarrel between two Jews, here's some of the goyim species seeking Jewish understanding, love and forgiveness.

Perhaps the wignats who are pro-Russia because Zelensky is Jewish will be all turned around now that Based Putin himself has said he's not a real Jew, and also because Putin says he's BFFs with many Jews himself. However, probably they'll just ignore the comment the same as they ignore all of Putin's failures.

 

[Ghostse]

Also in the news, I just don't know who is Jewing who anymore. Much like the above quarrel between two Jews, here's some of the goyim species seeking Jewish understanding, love and forgiveness. You can dunk ferociously on the 4th Ukroreich and its Collective Zapadoid allies, but you don't get to touch the speshuls, nuh-uh.
How many Jewish friends do YOU have, after all?

Putin's 12D chess move: convert to Judaism.