Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Null said:
what the fuck are you basing this off of
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Just my personal opinion, but a couple of things:

- His march to Moscow has been incredibly slowed
- The last coup attempt I've seen (Edrogan) happened in less time and was still stopped, which also seemed to rely on external actors which never materialized (similar to what we're seeing, Proghozin expects some external actors to help him, but all we've seen are very confused army generals)
- Because its slowed, its allowed everyone to sober up and think instead of reacting hastily
- If he's slowed or stuck in country, he can't really depose Putin with 20k men
- His entire popular support comes from success in Ukraine, so if he fucks with the war effort his popularity disappears and the likelihood that the army rallies to kill him, so he can just basically hold a knife to its throat, if he actually cuts, he's as dead as the hostage.

There's a lot of factors in play, but it seems like there's hope for external support, which he needs for it to be successful and it hasn't really materialized. I'm not saying this is a nothingburger, but I think its a massive miscalculation on Progohozin's part and his position isn't as strong as he thinks.
 
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How the fuck did Wagner manage to make a 700 km trip unopposed?
 
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Secret Asshole said:
The last coup attempt I've seen (Edrogan) happened in less time and was still stopped, which also seemed to rely on external actors which never materialized (similar to what we're seeing, Proghozin expects some external actors to help him, but all we've seen are very confused army generals)
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I would add to this that starting a coup from outside the seat of power is adding a lot of complexity and difficulty. In this case he has not even reached the seat of power and the fact that no external support has manifested yet makes it super unlikely that any ever will.

Military coups are over within a day one way or another. This is all but over. Doesn't mean that it will cause no issues for Russia though. The confidence in the leadership has been undermined.
 
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The best part of a good crisis like this is all the "wish-it-were-so-it-must-be" theories that are flying around. Hot takes galore. 75% of the internet doesn't really give a shit what is actually happening, and, in true netizen fashion, they're filtering it through their own biases, and the ensuing amount of crazy copium hair-brained theories is downright fascinating, and also a little bit depressing.
 
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Useful_Mistake said:
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How the fuck did Wagner manage to make a 700 km trip unopposed?
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Russia is in the middle of a war, it doesn't want to risk ANOTHER war so its going to wait and see. A mistake turns it into a bloody insurgency. Not to mention what's probably happening right now is Putin looking for any internal support Wagner has right now and is in the middle of shredding it. If Wagner triumphantly arrives in Moscow and Proghozin's supporters heads on on the city gate with pikes, then well, game over.
im5!XxhO said:
I would add to this that starting a coup from outside the seat of power is adding a lot of complexity and difficulty. In this case he has not even reached the seat of power and the fact that no external support has manifested yet makes it super unlikely that any ever will.

Military coups are over within a day one way or another. This is all but over. Doesn't mean that it will cause no issues for Russia though. The confidence in the leadership has been undermined.
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Pretty much. Coups need to happen lightning quick. He's driving from Ukraine to Moscow. Not exactly a short trip.
 
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Before anyone says anything to the tone of "wow this is the worst coup ever" may I remind you that the US Government spent over 2 years now insisting Jan 6th was a coup attempt.

Not only that, but the Peruvian President has the prize for the worst coup ever with his 2022 attempt where he literally got impeached and just went on TV to say "nuh uh I am gonna stay in power" without any sort of military help, police help, legal argument or even plan. He literally just spoke on TV that he was declaring Martial Law and staying in power without anything else and honestly expected to stay in power.
 
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Secret Asshole said:
Just my personal opinion, but a couple of things:

- His march to Moscow has been incredibly slowed
- The last coup attempt I've seen (Edrogan) happened in less time and was still stopped, which also seemed to rely on external actors which never materialized (similar to what we're seeing, Proghozin expects some external actors to help him, but all we've seen are very confused army generals)
- Because its slowed, its allowed everyone to sober up and think instead of reacting hastily
- If he's slowed or stuck in country, he can't really depose Putin with 20k men
- His entire popular support comes from success in Ukraine, so if he fucks with the war effort his popularity disappears and the likelihood that the army rallies to kill him, so he can just basically hold a knife to its throat, if he actually cuts, he's as dead as the hostage.

There's a lot of factors in play, but it seems like there's hope for external support, which he needs for it to be successful and it hasn't really materialized. I'm not saying this is a nothingburger, but I think its a massive miscalculation on Progohozin's part and his position isn't as strong as he thinks.
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Big thing to add is that you don't launch a coup without air support (or the airforce at least neutral or on your side), and he basically has none except AA missiles, so chances are hes going to get bombed to hell, or his convoys are just going to be sitting ducks for helicopters.


He may have much better trained soldiers than national security forces, but the longer a "coup" goes on, the worse his position will be and the stronger the states, and this special military operation seems to be going on for far longer than is really safe.
 
JustSomeDong said:
The best part of a good crisis like this is all the "wish-it-were-so-it-must-be" theories that are flying around. Hot takes galore. 75% of the internet doesn't really give a shit what is actually happening, and, in true netizen fashion, they're filtering it through their own biases, and the ensuing amount of crazy copium hair-brained theories is downright fascinating, and also a little bit depressing.
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It's half the fun. Without insider knowledge it's all just speculations anyways.
General Emílio Médici said:
Before anyone says anything to the tone of "wow this is the worst coup ever" may I remind you that the US Government spent over 2 years now insisting Jan 6th was a coup attempt.
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You say that but I gotta defend the january 6th larp. At least they started their "coup" right next to Congress in Washington DC.
 
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Report from the press service of the President of the Republic of Belarus.

This morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin briefed his Belarusian counterpart on the situation in southern Russia with the private military company Wagner. The heads of state agreed on joint actions.

As a follow-up to the agreements, the President of Belarus, having further clarified the situation through his own available channels, in coordination with the President of Russia, held talks with the head of the Wagner PMC, Evgeny Prigozhin.

The talks lasted for the whole day. As a result they came to an agreement on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloodbath on the territory of Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of President Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed men of Wagner in Russia and further steps to de-escalate tension.

At the moment, on the table is absolutely advantageous and acceptable option of resolving the situation, with security guarantees for the Wagner PMC fighters.

As previously reported, also during today's meeting the President of Belarus held two meetings with the security bloc of the country on this situation.
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A few Telegram channels have posted this although they do clarify it doesn't mean hostilities are over
 
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Secret Asshole said:
Just my personal opinion, but a couple of things:

- His march to Moscow has been incredibly slowed
- The last coup attempt I've seen (Edrogan) happened in less time and was still stopped, which also seemed to rely on external actors which never materialized (similar to what we're seeing, Proghozin expects some external actors to help him, but all we've seen are very confused army generals)
- Because its slowed, its allowed everyone to sober up and think instead of reacting hastily
- If he's slowed or stuck in country, he can't really depose Putin with 20k men
- His entire popular support comes from success in Ukraine, so if he fucks with the war effort his popularity disappears and the likelihood that the army rallies to kill him, so he can just basically hold a knife to its throat, if he actually cuts, he's as dead as the hostage.

There's a lot of factors in play, but it seems like there's hope for external support, which he needs for it to be successful and it hasn't really materialized. I'm not saying this is a nothingburger, but I think its a massive miscalculation on Progohozin's part and his position isn't as strong as he thinks.
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His advance hasn't been slowed at all. His troops have made best speed possible. Only way they could have gone faster is if they were air mobile. 2 Hours per 100kms is what you can expect out of a moving formation in forced march and he has done slightly better than that.
There is nothing in his way, for now. All the Rosgardia and Local police have done is put trucks in the way. The frontline response so far has been either support, or just shell Ukrainians in the hope they don't take advantage of this. The Chechens sent to Rostov to detain Wagner got arrested and civilians seems supportive or apathetic. His only real struggle is time as nightfall will strike and that will create confusion inside Moscow proper and that might allow Putin to rally support.
 
General Emílio Médici said:
Before anyone says anything to the tone of "wow this is the worst coup ever" may I remind you that the US Government spent over 2 years now insisting Jan 6th was a coup attempt.

Not only that, but the Peruvian President has the prize for the worst coup ever with his 2022 attempt where he literally got impeached and just went on TV to say "nuh uh I am gonna stay in power" without any sort of military help, police help, legal argument or even plan. He literally just spoke on TV that he was declaring Martial Law and staying in power without anything else and honestly expected to stay in power.
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I'm not saying the 'worst coup ever', 25k hardened mercenaries in the middle of a war is a pretty decent coup force. The problems being:

1 - Nowhere near fast enough. If you're on the front line, not really exactly close for a coup attempt, even with modern logistics and roads
2 - Your entire support relies on the war in question, which you are almost assuredly fucking with. So you have to coup really fast or you fuck with the war that made you popular
3 - You need external support, the problem is your external support should be the one acting first because its closest to the seats of power and should (ideally) be within the same fucking building as the person your couping. If someone told Proghozin, 'bro, trust me, I got this, just start driving to Moscow, I got your back' he got fucking played by the trick everyone does.

DiscoRodeo said:
Big thing to add is that you don't launch a coup without air support (or the airforce at least neutral or on your side), and he basically has none except AA missiles, so chances are hes going to get bombed to hell, or his convoys are just going to be sitting ducks for helicopters.


He may have much better trained soldiers than national security forces, but the longer a "coup" goes on, the worse his position will be and the stronger the states, and this special military operation seems to be going on for far longer than is really safe.
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This as well. He's clearly banking on external support, and Putin and his government is finding that external support right now.
Neodymium-60 said:
A few Telegram channels have posted this although they do clarify it doesn't mean hostilities are over
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Seems like he realized he bit off more than he could chew and was willing to come to the table. At least if the telegram channels are correct.
Smashed & Slamed said:
His advance hasn't been slowed at all. His troops have made best speed possible. Only way they could have gone faster is if they were air mobile. 2 Hours per 100kms is what you can expect out of a moving formation in forced march and he has done slightly better than that.
There is nothing in his way, for now. All the Rosgardia and Local police have done is put trucks in the way. The frontline response so far has been either support, or just shell Ukrainians in the hope they don't take advantage of this. The Chechens sent to Rostov to detain Wagner got arrested and civilians seems supportive or apathetic. His only real struggle is time as nightfall will strike and that will create confusion inside Moscow proper and that might allow Putin to rally support.
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When I say 'slowed' I mean he should have been in Moscow already. Military coups are quick because if they're not quick, then that's a civil war. And Wagner doesn't have the forces for a civil war. So basically for them its coup or death.
 
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Some Dumb Faggot said:
This is why the Ukraine people are so irritating. Most people in this thread are not very pro Russian if at all. People just want to remain skeptical and figure out what's actually happening since there is a clear fog of war in play here. You go to the damb Ukraine thread and it's filled with nothing but saying how fucked Russia is and I frankly I have no idea if that is the case or not because no one wants to tell the truth. Being on this damn website should teach you not to instantly take things at face value. It's also retarded to take sides when this war has ruined everything for everyone.
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OK, yes, the people on that thread acting like this will disintegrate Russia as a state are being stupid. Not sure what this has to do with me saying that thinking this is all of 4D chess move is delusional.
The Punished Mitch said:
What people like me want is a semi white ( because that's the best we're going to get ) country that does not engage in niggerworship and the stunning and brave practice of chemically castrating children and providing double mastectomies to 13 year old girls.

I don't see why that's so controversial.
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It's not controversial and I'm not mocking you for that. What I am mocking you, and people who think like you for, is thinking that supporting a dictatorship conquering a smaller corrupt country is somehow going to keep little Timmy from getting his cock and balls chopped off by child molesters, and getting so invested in this that you think it's the final stand of all that's good in the world.
 
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