Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

The chef bit off more than he could chew, basically- and there's no going back once you've crossed the Rubicon, so hes just trying to show thats he's capable of really fucking with the front from behind the scenes by taking Rostov, to get some sort of negotiation from Putin,

but Putin isn't playing ball, so now hes really desperate, yelling on social media, probably wanting and wishing more of the people who said they would support his coup (but when push came to shove either did nothing or double crossed him) come out in support, and just desperate to make his own negotiating position stronger.

He knows that if he just stays in Rostov, hes dead. His only chance is something bold to try and bring the central government to the table, hence some push towards moscow, but if anything this is just going to piss Putin off more because negotiations are long off the table.

He really overplayed his hand and the amount of support he expected vs what he actually got says a lot about his coup. For it to have been successful, hed either have to have military units on the front declaring for him as well, or internal oligarchs and security forces declaring for him. So far, neither really have.

I think he probably realizes that the coup has failed, and his next step is trying to salvage something through a negotiated agreement from a temporary strong military position, he just needs to show that they better negotiate with him now (even though the longer this goes on, the stronger the states position is) because he has the power to do some immediate damage now, if not tomorrow.

My prediction is that hes going to get stalled somewhere on the road to moscow, and just chewed out by helicopters and make some retreat to the south where he just gets shelled to death after people detract from his own forces.
 
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nyeeeeeet i said ammunition nye expedition
 
They wanted to dissolve PMC "Wagner". On June 23rd we set out on the “March of Justice”. In one day we walked and did not manage 200 km to Moscow. During this time we have not shed a single drop of the blood of our fighters.

Now is the moment when blood can be shed. Aware of the responsibility of Russian blood being spilled on one side, we turn our columns around and head in the opposite direction to the encampments, according to the plan. - Yevgeny Prigozhin
Now that we have recent news that Wagner PMC will stand down and return to their "camps," I am 100% convinced that this is some ambitious gay-psy-op just to mask movement of troops of Wagner Group PMC towards Belgorod Oblast to prep for the Russian offensive towards Kharkiv.

Should we be surprised about the head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin went 180 again after the numerous instances previously?
  • Prigozhin rants about ammunition issues while at the same time the Wagnerites and Russians keeps shelling Ukrainian troops and positions constantly 24/7 in Bakhmut.
  • In addition, why did Wagner Group PMC hire Mikhail Mizintsev, the Deputy Minister of Defense that was responsible for their logistics while Prigozhin was ranting about logistics issues, after he was "sacked?"
  • Last of all, Prigozhin mentioned that Wagner PMC will head out of Bakhmut when a fraction of the city is still controlled by the Ukrainians, and that the Chechen special forces Akhmat will replace them. In the end? Wagner PMC captured the entire city a couple days later.

Some stuff just doesn't make sense in this coup.
  • Are we supposed to believe that a couple of flames inside some trenches and fallen trees is the result of this so called "missile strike" when it could have been a set that is faked.
  • When Wagner PMC launched their convoy towards Moscow, none of the Russian authorities decided to apprehend the Wagnerites, such as the fact that there is no police or FSB outside of Wagner PMC's headquarters in Saint Petersburg.
  • Other stuff include how is it that all the pilots of these helicopters Wagner PMC blew up all survived, or that Prigozhin is a Putin ally, and there was a meeting weeks ago between them.​

At this point, my gut is telling me that yes, Prigozhin is a great leader for morale that cares for his forces in addition to showing respect to the Ukrainian side, but he is also an actor. Yes, I suppose him being extremely emotional when we saw that video of him nearby corpses of Wagner soldiers that he does truly care about his soldiers and that he is angry, but him blaming the MoD while Ukraine gets constantly shelled in Bakhmut is just baffling to me.

For me, I feel like I'm being b's'ed so many times in regards to the Prigozhin vs Russian MoD drama that I am sure it's all military deception. Deception has worked many times, like how that the Russian-Ukrainian war thread was fooled that the main Ukrainian counter-offensive was going to be in Kherson when it was actually Kharkiv, or that the thread thought that the Wagner will withdraw when they captured Bakhmut on the first anniversary of the capture of Mariupol, and so forth.

So in the end, maskirovka worked and we in both threads and everyone on the upper-case I Internet are fooled, AGAIN.

Regarding the build-up to the Offensive:
  • Yevgeny Prigozhin mentioning that the Wagner Group PMC will be ready to deploy back to the front on August 5, but it should be noted that it's bad op-sec to declare the date on when you're heading back to the front, so it's just deception in which Wagnerites will move at an earlier date before August 5. - https://ghostarchive.org/archive/EGRQK
  • On June 21, Remylind23, a pro-Russian reporter with heavy connections to Wagner PMC mentioned this - https://ghostarchive.org/archive/zBoBS:
Prigozhin prepares Wagner's return to the front. Statements of this kind like today will be heard more often in the coming days and weeks.

What to believe? Only very little.

Please don't fall for the obvious psy-ops. Presenting yourself as weaker than you are is now part of the plan.
  • The Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu has mentioned the creation of a new reserve army and an army corp in June 23. This comes in with 114,000 mobilized recruits and 50,000 volunteers. With the additional 50,000 PMCs provided by Wagner, would be around 214,000 troops. There will also be 5 tank regiments, which will equal 500 tanks. Now Russia has an entire additional army the size of their initial invasion force. - https://ghostarchive.org/archive/9EQgx
  • The so-called Wagnerian rebellion happened at the night of June 23, with the Russian government apparently blowing up a Wagnerian camp.

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And last of all. Status quo pretty much remains the same. - https://ghostarchive.org/archive/nG91i
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All charges against Prigozhin are dropped. - https://ghostarchive.org/archive/cXXir

Expect more elaborate maskirovka.​

i am so pissed at being denied my entertainment, i expect Prigozhin on a submarine expedition to the Titanic by next Saturday.
I guess no MATI segment then. :(
 
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Prigozhin is dead as fuck and has signed his own warrant with this stupid stunt. Doubt the news about Wagner killing Russian pilots will go down well with the Russian public.
 
So, just like that this attempt of a coup got resolved? Well, that was anticlimatic.

But I must say, I don't think Prigozhin is gonna be living a happy, full life after this stunt he attempted to do. He's only a couple of steps away from killing himself with 39 stabs in the back and being shot twice in the head. Or just outright being shelled to death with explosives.
 
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