Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[SBG]

Boring end, but was funny seeing Kadyrov's guys getting stuck in traffic.

It's also a weird end since it sorta neuters Wagner to an extent, makes Putin look like a joke if a force could steamroll on through and be welcomed by random people on the streets, and the best defense Russia could mount is pretty much give into Prigozhin and let him go off on his merry way.

It's hard to see a lot of logic in the actions of anyone involved.

 

[Lord of the Large Pants]

I desperately somebody to explain to me how, in the end, this was all the Jews.

Because I can't tell who's Jewing who anymore.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

Everyone always says this about everything "This is the downfall of Putin!" and it never happens.

Until it does happen. Nothing last forever, especially not dictators. They have a nasty habit of getting overthrown, usually when a war is going badly. Make no mistake, this was a huge sounding bell for the weakness of Putin's regime. Prigozhin may have had no balls, but neither does Putin, and now, everybody knows that. The war is still going poorly for Russia, Russia is still an international pariah, nothing is getting better, everything is getting worse. Prigozhin is punk, but the next guy attempting this probably won't be.

 

[Null]

I desperately somebody to explain to me how, in the end, this was all the Jews.

Prigozhin is Jewish.

 

[Lord of the Large Pants]

Prigozhin is Jewish.

Thank you, Dear Leader. My world is safe and comfortable again and I no longer have to reconsider my biases.

Okay, I WAS kidding, but now I'm tempted toward Noticing™...

 

[Trig.Point]

That's the thing, I very much doubt he'll be able to, or at least not effectively. Everyone seems to have forgotten that Wagner, despite it's claims otherwise, was never really much of a private entity. Almost everything on the logistics and support side was handled through the MOD, using Russian military assets. So now Wagner has lost a ton of it's fighters, basically it's entire support apparatus and Prigozhin is almost certainly gonna lose out on all the cushy government contracts he used to build his wealth in the first place, while needing access to more money than ever to (re)uild that capability.

As much of a longshot as the coup was I feel like it had a slightly higher chance of ending well for him than giving up will. As it stands Wagner will probably slowly attrit over the next year or two, through either combat losses, or simple financial issues, at which point Putin will safely have Prig fall out of a penthouse window or something similar.

It's funny you mention Logistics because the YouTuber Ryan Mcbeth, made a short video suggesting that the Wagner group actually do have decent logistics.

 

[Least Concern]

Scanning through Twitter for news and seeing cope along the lines of how Prigozhin being exiled to Belarus is a brilliant 7D chess move because now he will lead some combination of the Belarus military and Wagner forces in attacking Ukraine from the north and pincering Kiev. He might actually be taking control of Belarus, either by replacing Lukashenko or by being his puppetmaster.

Okay, but if that was the end game, why didn't they just have him go to Belarus? Why first have to do this "fake" march through Rostov and have the MoD and Putin regime look even weaker in the process? Is that where the "it was a feint to make it look like the front lines are in chaos and goad the Ukes into attacking" cope comes in?

 

[Post Reply]

Okay, but if that was the end game, why didn't they just have him go to Belarus? Why first have to do this "fake" march through Rostov and have the MoD and Putin regime look even weaker in the process?

This feint towards Moscow was really an extradimensional chess move by Putin to embarrass all the people who post Chimputin memes on Twitter. Don't they look silly now? Well done, Vladimir Vladimirovich.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Is it akshually exile though? Everyone has assumed Potato Man would die without an heir and Belarus would be annexed by Russia. If Prigozhin and his boys are getting a transfer to Belarus this may mean Lukashenko is hedging his bets.

but now, Russia has given Belarus Nukes, and a 25,000 strong contingent of battle hardened bad asses.


Have we underestimated the potato man?

 

[AgendaPoster]

Prigozhin is Jewish.

He's the most disappointing Jew ever. I expected proper Jewing around and Jewery all the way to Moscow. I was given muh exile to Babylon Belarus and the start of gorrillion years wandering the deserts of East Yurop
Russia should fix its Jews, they're broken, defective.

 

[Least Concern]

If Prigozhin and his boys are getting a transfer to Belarus this may mean Lukashenko is hedging his bets.

I don't think anyone credible is saying that his boys are going to Belarus. Just Prigozhin. The Wagner forces who weren't part of the march will get contracts with the MoD (are there any consequences if they don't sign?) and I guess everyone else is just straight up out of a job. I guess Prigozhin could reform Wagner out of those guys (if they want to pull up roots and emigrate to a foreign-ish country) and whoever he can scrape up in Belarus, though, if Lukashenko lets him, but I wouldn't blame either of them to decide it's more trouble than it's worth.

 

[Ghostse]

Well, with the Coup failing and Chef bending the knee, I guess this confirmed as a CIA glow op.

It's funny you mention Logistics because the YouTuber Ryan Mcbeth, made a short video suggesting that the Wagner group actually do have decent logistics.

Let me tl;dr:
Wagner's core is south african mercs & SOF types who know what the fuck they're on about. While not accountants, they have spent enough time doing small-team operations they know what soldiers need, and how to talk to field commanders to find out what they are missing and need (vs want), and there is no culture of "anyone complaining about their supply is a counter revolutionary, the state has given you everything you need to defeat the enemy you simply need to use smekalka" in Wagner.

In theater, Wagner uses Russian MoD for most of their logistics but being an independent entity with skilled people they have better PROCUREMENT - they can buy the best gear and are not forced to use whatever manufacturer greased the right palms -, they also have the ability to hire people or buy whatever to move things around if the situation demands it, and can do the usual soviet thing of horse-trading with other commanders to get the stuff you actually need.

or to super TL;DR:
Anyone's logistics look decent when compared to Russia's.

 

[Beebo]

Putin is the type of leader who's entire legitimacy as the Czar rests solely on him supposedly being strong enough to keep the enemies of Russia at bay, projecting strength and just being able to keep everyone in line. So let's recap what just went down:

Some random mercenary took multiple major cities with population of over a million, Putin's own underlings sat on the fence enjoying the show, Putin declared this mercenary an enemy of the state, this mercenary rode to the gates of Moscow shooting down Russian helicopters along the way while Putin himself fled the capital. Then Putin begged and paid off the barbarians at the gates, and some people cheer this as some kind of a brilliant move?
Russia really is the successor of Rome...

All Putin achieved was to show all of the sharks in the sharktank called "Russia" that being absolutely traitorous is actually a legitimate negotiation strategy. I wonder what this will do for Russia's internal cohesion in the future?
If i were a general in the Russian military seeing this shit going down, it would be very difficult for me to take anything Putin threatens to do seriously from now on, and would be more inclined if anything to be belligerent towards my superiors if i don't get something i want.

This stunt didn't "root out the traitors" or anything like that. All this stunt accomplished for Russia was severely undermine Putin's power, while laying down a very dangerous precedent that rebellion gets you rewards. Chef's political position is now stronger than it has ever been. Before all this he was the leper, now he's known as the guy that challenged Putin and forced Putin to negotiate.

 

[R00T]

He's the most disappointing Jew ever. I expected proper Jewing around and Jewery all the way to Moscow. I was given muh exile to Babylon Belarus and the start of gorrillion years wandering the deserts of East Yurop
Russia should fix its Jews, they're broken, defective.

nonono you see this is his wandering arc. all the best jews have a wandering arc. problem is he might be a moses type which means he'll never step foot in the promised land, but his hand picked replacement will lead Wagner to victory.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Stalin-branded dope, gold, cash and fake passport allegedly found in Prigozhin's office.

Edit: All the essentials, to the tune of $38 million.

 

[Ghostse]

Putin himself fled the capital.

Did we get any confirmation either way on this?
Last rumors I heard were Putin might have sent someone to St. Pete to get someone who knows Chef to help talk him down. But other than the address he gave, no evidence he didn't flee.
No confirmation on if the plane was using the presidential transport call-sign unless something new has leaked.

Then Putin begged and paid off the barbarians at the gates, and some people cheer this as some kind of a brilliant move?

These are the same people who swallow Russian MoD releases whole sale and also argue that Bradley/Abrams were not intended to fight in Ukraine. Even now they say that 6 exploded helicopters, a shotdown plane, martial law enacted in the capital and trenches dug through highways was a "magnificient psyop against NATO". So reality doesn't seem to be their strong suite.

 

[Night Crawler]

It seems Prigozhin has backed off from his coup. He is either planning something else or he isn't that smart. He claimed they tried to kill him. That won't make that situation better. If they were trying to kill him before they will try even harder now. Unless he is planning something else. I don't imagine he will be a live much longer. You could see the anger in Putin's face. He was not enjoying the event. They took this very seriously. Like I said we will probably be hearing about Prigozhin being found dead soon. This is not the kind of thing you can just back away from and expect things to go back to normal. There is no "I was just joking guys" in this sort of thing.

Well, with the Coup failing and Chef bending the knee, I guess this confirmed as a CIA glow op.


Let me tl;dr:
Wagner's core is south african mercs & SOF types who know what the fuck they're on about. While not accountants, they have spent enough time doing small-team operations they know what soldiers need, and how to talk to field commanders, and there is no culture of "anyone complaining about their supply is a counter revolutionary, you need to use smekalka" in Wagner.

In theater, Wagner uses Russian MoD for most of their logistics but being an independent entity with skilled people they have better PROCUREMENT - they can buy the best gear and are not forced to use whatever manufacturer greased the right palms -, they also have the ability to hire people or buy whatever to move things around if the situation demands it, and can do the usual soviet thing of horse-trading with other commanders to get the stuff you actually need.

or to super TL;DR:
Anyone's logistics look decent when compared to Russia's.

I doubt the CIA was involved. If they were it would have been successful.

 

[Null]

gold

based and real money pilled

 

[Post Reply]

I doubt the CIA was involved. If they were it would have been successful.

I think that's a little optimistic. I would say instead that if the CIA were involved, a whole lot more people would have died.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Putin probably made a bad move but he made the less bad of three bad moves.
1) Fight back, turn the Moscow suburbs into a warzone, and possibly risk not only looking weak but also a full blown collapse on the frontlines
2) Give Prigo an out, end the violence before it gets really bad, and worry about looking weak later
The fact that the little "justice march" happened anyways makes him look weak, but the main perps walking away from an attempt to dethrone the king makes him look LESS weak than a micro-civil war and a potential frontline collapse.

Now why Prigo took the deal is beyond me... He can't honestly believe any "security guarantee" the Kremlin gives him, can he?


@Ghostse
Quote bug, but I just want to say that this case of "Putin is fucked" is different.
Strongman dictators don't stay in power long-term by letting all would-be traitors and mutineers know that the punishment for treason and mutiny is a slap on the wrist and exile.
You would think, if there is one crime for which a "strongman" dictator needs to punish severely and without compromise, it would be just that - treason. Bribery, thieving, even shit like murder and rape can be overlooked so long as it benefits the man in charge, but marching a private army to the gates of the capital is NOT a crime that can be overlooked if you wish to dissuade others from doing similar.

Now as I said above, its a long term existential threat which is a problem for later compared to the short term existential threat of a micro-civilian war on the eve of a Ukrainian counter-offensive.