Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[WhiteNight]

My thoughts:

Prigozhin may have made the right move. In fact, he could be lucky to have gotten the deal he did.

Too many are assuming that because of the ease of his advance that he had Moscow in his grasp. But Putin is entrenched and has plenty of loyalists, and he still had a good number of soldiers (including the TikTok army on its way). Moscow could turn into an extended and bloody siege. Putin would sit in his bunker ordering soldiers from Ukraine to flank the Wagner army.

Prigozhin reached out to all his associates, and might have gotten far fewer takers than he'd hoped for. Going against Putin is a huge risk for anyone.

To nerd out a bit, maybe Chef was optimistic and thought he had an 80% chance of prevailing. That's a 20% chance of imprisonment, torture, and/or death. He might like the deal he got better than those odds. In reality, winning may have been a long shot and he only tried because he believed his days were numbered otherwise.

In addition, if Chef took Moscow, then what? I doubt he would last long as president of Russia. He doesn't have the skills to run a country, nor would he be able to quickly take over the vast intelligence apparatus Putin had built to protect himself. Prigo might be dead within a week. There would be numerous rivals to his position, which would be seen as there for the taking, and an oligarch could pay a bottom-barrel assassin to rub him out. That is all to say there may have been no victory condition at all.

With this deal, he gets his enemies out of the leadership, neutralizing the threats to his life, and will be able to go elsewhere, keep his billions, and continue killing and robbing people without interference.

As for Putin, he's a coward and wasn't going to gamble with his life. So he was content to make a few concessions to end this.

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

There would be numerous rivals to his position, which would be seen as there for the taking, and an oligarch could pay a bottom-barrel assassin to rub him out.

Wagner employs some of the most skilled fighters in Russia. ex-SOF guys who just love war and would rather die on the battlefield than live a peaceful life. Prigozhin had these guys to protect him. They could have been his bodyguard, but he betrayed them. Just shameful cowardice. Putin was a fucking nobody when he got in power. Prigozhin would have had a relatively better starting position. I honestly feel bad for true believer Wagnerites. Sheer betrayal.

 

[Hall of Cost Payer]

View attachment 5177423

Prigozhin (age 62) lives out the rest of his short life in a potato-strewn wasteland. Wagner vets get thrown back into the meatgrinder under the command of hostile incompetents. The Russian world is so fucking dumb.

These conditions make me really suspicious that Wagner is for real in stopping all this. At this point I don't care about the Orc Cook. But Utkin is still pulling many strings in Wagner.

Who takes over leadership of Wagner when Chef goes to Belarus potato land?

And for the Wagner hardliners? They stop their maybe successful march on Moscow for: Losing their supporting oligarch, tens of thousands troops becoming part of the regular RuAF, and the higher ranking Wagner guys fearing being taken out by Putin/ Shoygu/ Gerasimov loyalists.

If this is true: We don't call them Vatniggers for no reason.

 

[RodgerDodger]

lmao wat, what the fuck is this?! Just when I thought things couldn't get any more absurd
I want off this ride

Prigozhin's bank has received the wire transfer from Putin.

 

[Noebel]

Not something I've expected. But here we fucking go.

 

[WhiteNight]

Anders Puck Nielsen put up a video a few minutes ago:

He thinks this isn't over, and it's really bad for Putin. He uses the phrases "devastating humiliation" and "beginning of the end" for Putin.

He also argues the coup was planned well in advance, and the shelling attack on Wagner was likely a false flag.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

It is bad for Putin, no shit. His beauty sleep was interrupted, nigga was legit shook.
I'll remain hopeful that more shenanigans ensue and the spectacle continues.

 

[Quindoll]

Well this all gives Ukrainians hopeium that they just have to hold firm and continue the fight since Russia could destabilize from within at any moment and that Ukraine appears to be more stable in this regard.

 

[RussianParasite]

The Russian world is so fucking dumb.

I see many people trying to use logic to understand what happened here, but the truth is Russia is often a country where applying conventional logic doesn’t work. It’s not 5D chess moves going on here, just chaos.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Who takes over leadership of Wagner when Chef goes to Belarus potato land?

Is Prigozhin resigning, or just relocating?

Sounds like Putin found the perfect way of divesting himself of Wagner & more incompetent generals, while not losing their numbers.

Prigozhin still Putin's man, and he wouldn't still be alive if it were otherwise; this was a restructuring rather than a revolution, and it's interesting that he'd get sent to set up shop with someone who's been reticent to officially send Belarusians into Ukraine (all while Ukraine has been benefiting from volunteer Belarusians).

My theory is Putin knew he couldn't outright purge incompetent/corrupt/disloyal officers or the bulk of Wagner, nor could he force Belarus into the conflict. But he knew that Wagner had to go for multiple reasons & he still needs Belarusian bodies for the grinder. So why not send Prigozhin to start another Wagner in Belarus, watch over things, and maybe goad Luka into doing something stupid; only when Prigozhin's usefulness is at an end will he drink the polonium tea.

But at the same time, I wouldn't be all that surprised if Prigozhin immediately defects and/or vanishes.

 

[R00T]

tor isn't letting me upload pictures but i used to think the speech check for legate lanius was always stupid. Now after watching courier lukashenko talk Legate Prigozhin down from a march into Moscow over the phone my opinion that Obsidian sucks at dialogue has waivered.

 

[Trig.Point]

So Putin fled the capital and Belarus had to step in to negotiate a climb down. The toadies Putin has sponsored in the military didn't join in the coup, but they didn't exactly rally to their presidents defense either.

Putin looks like a complete cunt, and if Prigozhin is still able to exercise control of Wagner from exile in Belarus, his problems are just beginging. Prigozhin is a far better communicator than Putin, and while I doubt Russia is going to tolerate a f

 

[zyclonPD]

 

[teriyakiburns]

to sum up the last 48 hours: what the fuck is even happening?

 

[R00T]

I just don't know what to think. You have thousands of fiercely loyal battle-hardened veterans who have suffered endless trials and misery for the sake of the emperor, yet are disrespected and treated as common infantry. You're the leader of these men, who follow you in a treasonous assault against the seat of the empire itself, with a high risk of death, and you sell them out for a few political favors while right outside the gates of the citadel? Seems crazy. I can't see this ending well for Prigozhin. His men will hate and feel betrayed by him, Moscow will fear and hate him. No winners here.

imagine all the ones who agreed to join up for reductions in prison sentences. you get told to get up in the morning and engage in high treason. it's all or nothing at this point. you're either walking away at the end of the day feeling like a king or going back to fighting a shitty war and winding up in a prison cell at the end.

there's probably more than a few that are missing prison right now.

 

[East_Clintwood]

and if Prigozhin is still able to exercise control of Wagner from exile in Belarus,

That's the thing, I very much doubt he'll be able to, or at least not effectively. Everyone seems to have forgotten that Wagner, despite it's claims otherwise, was never really much of a private entity. Almost everything on the logistics and support side was handled through the MOD, using Russian military assets. So now Wagner has lost a ton of it's fighters, basically it's entire support apparatus and Prigozhin is almost certainly gonna lose out on all the cushy government contracts he used to build his wealth in the first place, while needing access to more money than ever to (re)uild that capability.

As much of a longshot as the coup was I feel like it had a slightly higher chance of ending well for him than giving up will. As it stands Wagner will probably slowly attrit over the next year or two, through either combat losses, or simple financial issues, at which point Putin will safely have Prig fall out of a penthouse window or something similar.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

View attachment 5177554

Losing six helicopters and one aircraft that can carry up to 40 passengers, along with their trained pilots, in a matter of hours was definitely worth executing the master plan figured out by some Vatnik using a Norwegian VPN on /pol/.

 

[Scout Trooper]

Losing six helicopters and one aircraft that can carry up to 40 passengers, along with their trained pilots, in a matter of hours was definitely worth executing the master plan figured out by some Vatnik using a Norwegian VPN on /pol/.

We're contending with true geniuses here. I'm sure those shoot downs were just elaborate hoaxes.

In fact, Wagner never even left their positions on the front. All the "Wagner fighters" you saw were elderly women in special effects makeup. Prigozhin, Putin, Lukashenko, and the rest are meeting up for an ice cream social in Belarus.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

I would say I'm dissappointed at the (current) outcome, but I'm more confused by what's happening than anything else.

 

[Ghostse]

It's all so bizarre. Prighozin by all metrics had WON. He was on the cusp of going into the history books. A man who took fucking Moscow with a private army.

And he fucking blinked. Right at the gates of the city with nothing in the way to stop him. What a fool. You don't survive something like this. Putin would have promised him anything he wanted and will knife him at the first opportunity.

The wonking I am hearing was:
He got a warm welcome in Rostov due to everyone being drunk and the border area seeing a lot of ill-effects of the war.
He crosses into Moscow Oblast, where no one's been mobilized and all the looted wealth from the Federation is concentrated. The Rostov national guard units who were cheering him before don't cross with him, remaining at their posts (there's a wide gulf between welcoming a liberator and going to fight the oppressor). So he's down to what he left with. The reception he gets in Moscow is frosty.
No people cheering coming up to shake their hands. Everyone's indoors, scurries away if they're out.

Russia has had time to react. No cars on the road. Its empty. Its deserted.
You have no air support. You have no heavy artillery. Russian High Command has had over 12 hours to respond to your incursion. None of your moscow contacts are picking up the phone. You are now feeling very, VERY alone.
I think Chef believed his line about fixing Russia, and believed the people were behind him. He's not getting that popular support in Moscow Oblast - he's now starting to wonder if this is the right move.

On the middle of this, you get contacted by Putin/the powers that be offering a deal.
There's been some shooting, you shot down three helicopters and a plane, some civies got BFTU but this is all very minor. You are being given a way out for you and your men.

Yes, you can see the moscow skyline, but you also think about what you're actually doing and that this might be the time to take your earnings and leave the table.

My thoughts:

Prigozhin may have made the right move. In fact, he could be lucky to have gotten the deal he did.

Too many are assuming that because of the ease of his advance that he had Moscow in his grasp. But Putin is entrenched and has plenty of loyalists, and he still had a good number of soldiers (including the TikTok army on its way). Moscow could turn into an extended and bloody siege. Putin would sit in his bunker ordering soldiers from Ukraine to flank the Wagner army.

Prigozhin reached out to all his associates, and might have gotten far fewer takers than he'd hoped for. Going against Putin is a huge risk for anyone.

To nerd out a bit, maybe Chef was optimistic and thought he had an 80% chance of prevailing. That's a 20% chance of imprisonment, torture, and/or death. He might like the deal he got better than those odds. In reality, winning may have been a long shot and he only tried because he believed his days were numbered otherwise.

In addition, if Chef took Moscow, then what? I doubt he would last long as president of Russia. He doesn't have the skills to run a country, nor would he be able to quickly take over the vast intelligence apparatus Putin had built to protect himself. Prigo might be dead within a week. There would be numerous rivals to his position, which would be seen as there for the taking, and an oligarch could pay a bottom-barrel assassin to rub him out. That is all to say there may have been no victory condition at all.

With this deal, he gets his enemies out of the leadership, neutralizing the threats to his life, and will be able to go elsewhere, keep his billions, and continue killing and robbing people without interference.

As for Putin, he's a coward and wasn't going to gamble with his life. So he was content to make a few concessions to end this.

Pretty much this.
I figured that this would go no where once the shock wore off and Putin managed to find his own ass as Putin has too much control on the levers of power, but there was that fucking possibility.

The attack on his troops forced his hand, and this was the only way he could think of to react.
As you say: lets pretend Putin fled Moscow, the national guard, the military police, and the police all holster weapons open the baracades and agree to not oppose you - now fucking what. All the leaders are in the wind, Putin's not going to let this stand, and you have a maybe a few thousand men. If the existing troops/police up and left, left you couldn't maintain order in the city let alone hold it.

Chef made the best move he could short of flying to a African country Wagner owned and making a deal with the CIA MI-6.

He still made Putin dig up highways. That will all be hilarious.

He thinks this isn't over, and it's really bad for Putin. He uses the phrases "devastating humiliation" and "beginning of the end" for Putin.

Everyone always says this about everything "This is the downfall of Putin!" and it never happens. People in 'open' societies, especially Eurocucks, can't process a "strongman" Dictator and how they maintain power.
"But he said Trannies were bad! That's not just homophobia but transphobia! How have people not abandoned him for being that transphobic?"
They've been ground of the heel of some downsy inbeed with a Hapsberg jaw for so long, and then that was followed up by a cabal of parasites who only think about next election and not what importing a temporarily loyal voting population does to the long term health of a country, that the idea of a leader with charisma speaking to the concerns of the population is a complete undoing of their entire world view; I'd be like a full-sized Elephant that weights 5 lbs, their minds reject this as impossible.

"There is no way that Elephant can stand on a carboard box! This is the end of him."
"You know that elephant weighs 5-lbs, right?"
"Elephants all weight several tons! This is the end of this Elephant"
*Fullsized 5lb elephant stands on cardboard box*
"I told you - it weights 5lbs."
"IMPOSSIBLE! This can't be! This defies all logic and thus cannot exist! That carboard box must really be made of titanium!"
etc

It is bad for Putin, no shit. His beauty sleep was interrupted, nigga was legit shook.
I'll remain hopeful that more shenanigans ensue and the spectacle continues.

Always hope, but this is over.
Anythign else is embarrasing cope.

Realistically in February of 2022 Putin simply doesn't order his men to cross into Ukraine. He keeps up his little green men in Luhansk and Donetsk. That keeps Ukraine tangled up and stops them from joining NATO. In terms of optics he also gets to make Biden and the American intelligence apparatus look stupid for screeching about an invasion that never came.

I mean yes that's what a normal person would say, but that doesn't get Putin his legacy of soviet restorer.
Putin wanted Ukraine back, bad, and just buying politicians wasn't going fast enough.

Also it wouldn't have made Biden/USA TLAs look bad, they were the ones saying there wouldn't be an invastion. Ukraine made moves like shifting around AA and deploying more combat-ready troops to the airports based on what Brit/Estonian intelligence said.