Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Since now nobody believes anything they hear or see with their own eyes when it disagrees with their truth, even if Russia leaves UA and Crimea (while keeping their treaty base in Sevastopol), Putiska can have his TVs and internet trolls say mission accomplished, we were there to denazify and demilitarise Ukraine and we won - see, now they can't defend themselves and are occupied by NATO, but without the Nazis.

No matter what happens, the other side & the other thread will spin it as a victory. Yesterday, courtesy of Flightradar24, one could track many "special airforce planes" leaving Moscow, including the "Rossiya" one, used to transport Putin (but also used sometimes to bring expelled diplomats from abroad). It seems that quite a lot of important people got scared.

Wagner troops going to BY is also suspicious. Are they going there to then attack UA from the North? This could all be a feint, who knows.
 
The vatnigger reaction to this has been... interesting. Some are literally talking about "trusting the plan" and have turned a janny in Rostov into Z-anon for using the phrase. The least insane vatniggers are being extremely nitpicky about the use of the word "coup" to describe a private army fighting the national army on the road to the capital. Yep, definitely can't make assumptions about the goal of that operation.

They have now convinced themselves that this is 3d chess to station Wagner in Belarus for a new attack on Kyiv. Or maybe it was an op to steal 6 billion from the CIA? It's hard to know when every fucking setback can be spun as a W by these retards.

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I imagine there's some fanatics of the commander that are completely disillusioned right now as well.
Plenty of them. I already posted (formerly) AP Wagner disavowing Progozhin.
Convicts from Storm Z unit who voiced support for Prigozhin's march yesterday recorded another address to Prigozhin accusing him of backing down. While they use a lot of convict speak and look convincing, it may not be sensible to reveal themselves like that. Regardless, such sentiment is not uncommon in the Russian forces after Prigozhin stopped without reaching Moscow.

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It remains to be seen what happens to the small people and men on the ground who believed Prigozhin.
This whole clown show likely did not help already terrible morale among Russian troops.
What I find funny is that the Chechens somehow managed to be too late everywhere to actually do anything and only arrived at the scene after everything was resolved. They did manage to film tiktoks of their column standing still in various places and patrol near Moscow (post Wagner withdrawal) though.

Failed counterattack? The Ukrainians haven't really started their counter attack yet. I don't know how it can be failed. From what I understand they are still probing the Russians lines.
From what I read they did probe, but found not real weakness, so instead of a punch through the lines they continued their slow and methodical advance while grinding down what is left of the Russian military. For some reason the Russians conducted some disastrous (for them) counterattacks, which certainly helps. The main issue seem to be the minefields that make any quick movements or exploitation of openings impossible, combined with Russian airforce being able to attack from beyond the range of front line air defenses. There were some notable losses of Ukraine air defense systems recently, so it seems like they moved them closer, but the losses show why that's a difficult decision.

Here's an example of what was happening in Ukraine while Russians were killing each other.
1st Mechanized Battalion, 3rd Assault Brigade storms Russian trenches near Bakhmut

So while the counteroffensive did not outright fail, it also did not succeed either. Still, the fact is that the Russian army has few, if any, reserves and is incapable of conducting more than small local counterattacks, while the Ukrainian army has not committed most of their NATO equipped and trained troops and can pick their battles.
Russia lost the ability to win this war militarily half a year ago, but that doesn't mean Ukraine has won it.


Another topic: Ziggers are kokokoing about how Ukraine is stupid for not exploiting this, but the frontline minefields and troops were unaffected by all the chaos and didn't go away. Funny because at first they were kokokoing about how it was a trap to lure Ukrainians into making costly attacks. Or that it was a show to conceal Wagner movements (???). Now the new delusion is that Wagner will invade from Belarus. The innocent souls don't live in reality, so they are unaware that the border between Ukraine and Belarus are trackless woods and swamps that are now flooded, mined and defended by TDF. There's reasons why the Russians left and never came back to that region.
I remain weirded out by their extreme emotional investment in this conflict in combination with a refusal to engage with any facts, or with arguments outside of their heavily curated social media bubble. They say Prigozhin factually describing the action of the Russian government, facts which are known to actual Russian military personnel, which is why expressing them openly gave him his good reputation among them to begin with, is him "repeating NATO talking points". They think it means he is on a CIA payroll. Elite schizophrenics have connected that with the recent discovery of the incorrect valuation of US arms supplies to know for a fact that he was paid 6.2 billion dollars for this.
 
as long as wagner remains as a significant fighting force, prigozhin has leverage and protection.
Peskov noted that the situation with Wagner will not affect the course of the special operation in Ukraine.
"Part of them (from the Wagner PMC. - Ed. note) will sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense, this applies to the part that did not take part in this campaign," the Kremlin representative pointed out.
At the same time, those who took part in today's events will not be prosecuted, given their merits at the front.
source: Russian government media
According to this Prigozhin gave in to the demand that maybe kicked this off: That all irregular forces subordinate themselves to the MoD by July 1st. At least the probably like 90%+ of his forces that didn't participate in this. What happens to those that did appears unclear except that they are absolved of their treasonous activities.
 
I wa mostly just shit posting because everyone is correct: This is way too low of a body count for a CIA glow op.
As I kind of alluded too before, the one thing anyone with a brain can point to to show that this is not to be a CIA glowop is how much no one in the west really wants a destabilized Russia. Let's pretend the Chef didn't pussy out on the doorstep and decided to go through with it. You suddenly got a massive shitshow in a government with massive amounts of nuclear weapons. Even if he takes complete power relatively quickly without any ensuing power struggle or counter-revolutions :optimistic:, Prigozhin himself is a wildcard. Is he dumb enough to use nukes? Is he dumb enough to sell the technology to the highest bidder? Will he actually return to cooperating with nuclear treaties, or will he continue to do his own thing? The whole thing becomes a lot more dangerous in the short term, rather than the status quo, which may be somewhat destabilized, but at least is understood.
 
According to some Russian ""journalist"", apparently some of the military peons who allowed Wagnerites to pass are getting detained and possibly charged with treason. Not surprising, but still LOL. No immunity and dacha in Belarus for you!
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"Release the guys who carried out the order of their superiors in the Southern Military District to lay down their arms. They were told to lay down their weapons by certain colonels, and now some of those guys have been detained and accused of being traitors, even though they were following orders. But they were ready to hold their ground."
 
Yesterday the defenders of Russia decided to seize power in Russia. So other defenders of Russia flew to kill the first defenders of Russia, but they killed them themselves. And Hero of Russia Prigozhin went to kill Hero of Russia Shoigu. Because of that Hero of Russia Kadyrov went to kill Hero of Russia Prigozhin. And because of that, Hero of Russia Bortnikov opened a case against Hero of Russia Prigozhin, but immediately closed it. Because the most important Hero of Russia, Putin, first guaranteed that the traitors would be punished, and then guaranteed that they wouldn't. And no one cares about those very first defenders who were killed. The main thing is that all the defenders are heroes, and we can continue to be proud of what heroic defenders Russia has.
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Well put.

As I kind of alluded too before, the one thing anyone with a brain can point to to show that this is not to be a CIA glowop is how much no one in the west really wants a destabilized Russia.
Throughout this whole conflict, heck since the breakup of the Soviet Union, arguably even before then, the US government did everything in its power to maintain stability in Russia.
At every turn the Russians were given free gibs, invited to talks, asked to not do retarded things, allowed to commit any crimes they want inside their own borders without repercussions. The only line was invading foreign countries, and even then the only response were sanctions aimed at the military sector in 2008 and 2014. Putin just can't not invade foreign countries to add them to his shit stalagmite empire that not even native Russians want to live in.
Throughout 2021 right up to the second invasion of Ukraine the Americans begged the Russians to not do it, and the Russians responded by demanding that NATO is effectively dissolved and the countries that were previously part of the Russian Empire not be defended.

The only threat to the security of the Russian state is the Russian government, and that has been the case since the development of a nuclear deterrent, no matter how much they screech about NATO encroachment (Why do all these countries we enslaved for centuries, constantly try to infiltrate and undermine, and after that failed, openly threaten with invasion, want to join a defensive alliance??? It must be CIA glowops!!!).
 
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Back to the actual war in Ukraine and not whatever shitshow is going on in Russia.

I didn't followed this war since the failed Russian Winter offensive and from my very unbiased pov it seems like the Ukies aren't doing much better. Yeah I know it's just 20 days but I just doubt the abilities of the Ukrainian army to score a major breakthrough without decent air support and a larger stockpile of cruise missiles.
 
Let me tl;dr:
Wagner's core is south african mercs & SOF types who know what the fuck they're on about. While not accountants, they have spent enough time doing small-team operations they know what soldiers need, and how to talk to field commanders, and there is no culture of "anyone complaining about their supply is a counter revolutionary, you need to use smekalka" in Wagner.

In theater, Wagner uses Russian MoD for most of their logistics but being an independent entity with skilled people they have better PROCUREMENT - they can buy the best gear and are not forced to use whatever manufacturer greased the right palms -, they also have the ability to hire people or buy whatever to move things around if the situation demands it, and can do the usual soviet thing of horse-trading with other commanders to get the stuff you actually need.

or to super TL;DR:
Anyone's logistics look decent when compared to Russia's.
Great analysis.. I would say though that I think that Prigozhin is a much savvier operator and has a better understanding of Russian public opinion than Putin.

If Wagner had started a pitched battle on the way to Moscow, the Russian public would have blamed them. I wonder if rather than looking like he's backed down, Prigozhin instead appears as a Russian patriot who's acted to save lives.

I think the test will be in the next few days, and that instead of purging Wagner the officers that participated in the attemped coup are allowed to remain in role.

In my view Putin looks like a cunt, who fled the capital when the chips were down, and had to be saved by Lukashenko . Putin should have been walking the streets and delivering an address from in front of a distinct Moscow landmark, instead he was socially distanced in front of a podium.
 
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I still think Putin looks like a cunt, who fled the capital when the chips were down, and had to be saved by Lukashenko . Putin should have been walking the streets and delivering an address from in front of a distinct Moscow landmark, instead he was socially distanced in front of a podium.
All he needed to do was put on an olive green teeshirt and film a tiktok on the steps of the Kremlin. Then he would have come out of this looking kinda badass.
 
Back to the actual war in Ukraine and not whatever shitshow is going on in Russia.

I didn't followed this war since the failed Russian Winter offensive and from my very unbiased pov it seems like the Ukies aren't doing much better. Yeah I know it's just 20 days but I just doubt the abilities of the Ukrainian army to score a major breakthrough without decent air support and a larger stockpile of cruise missiles.
Not really kosher to moan against its only allies, but expecting Ukraine to score some big wins in an announced, predictable offensive that Russia prepared for months against, while refusing to supply long range missiles, fighter jets, ammo etc. in industrial quantities is kinda misguided.
Every single shell and plane and tank that will be lost is replaceable, but Ukrainian lives will take decades to replace. You want Ukraine to succeed you need to give them the gear to create the required technological superiority to deal with a much larger enemy.
This is why I never really engaged in optimistic takes about what will happen, when and how, and also never wanted Ukraine to accept this trench warfare scenario that favors Russia in so many ways. I want Ukraine to master the gayops and "freedom fighting" partisan tactics, and make Russians that are friendly towards the war unsafe regardless of where they are. They should live in fear 24/7 and know their enemy will stop at nothing from removing their presence off the planet, for the sin of lusting after their neighbor's wealth and wife.
 
They should live in fear 24/7 and know their enemy will stop at nothing from removing their presence off the planet, for the sin of lusting after their neighbor's wealth and wife.
Budanov said something about that in an interview:
U.S. intelligence has attributed Dugina’s killing to the Ukrainian government, although not specifically to the HUR. Asked about this allegation, Budanov said, “Don’t continue with that topic. All I will comment on is that we’ve been killing Russians and we will keep killing Russians anywhere on the face of this world until the complete victory of Ukraine.”
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HUR being the "Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine".
The Russians tried to hit the Kyiv building a couple weeks later with a missile, but it missed and exploded in the river next to it. 50 NATO generals were killed in the attack.
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Not really kosher to moan against its only allies, but expecting Ukraine to score some big wins in an announced, predictable offensive that Russia prepared for months against, while refusing to supply long range missiles, fighter jets, ammo etc. in industrial quantities is kinda misguided.
Every single shell and plane and tank that will be lost is replaceable, but Ukrainian lives will take decades to replace. You want Ukraine to succeed you need to give them the gear to create the required technological superiority to deal with a much larger enemy.
This is why I never really engaged in optimistic takes about what will happen, when and how, and also never wanted Ukraine to accept this trench warfare scenario that favors Russia in so many ways. I want Ukraine to master the gayops and "freedom fighting" partisan tactics, and make Russians that are friendly towards the war unsafe regardless of where they are. They should live in fear 24/7 and know their enemy will stop at nothing from removing their presence off the planet, for the sin of lusting after their neighbor's wealth and wife.
There's a decent amount of partisan activity if ISW's maps are to be believed. And while I agree that Ukraine's allies should definitely have given Ukraine more and at a faster pace, I'm not unconvinced they did (or still do) have the capability for a successful counterattack, especially given Russia's demonstrated weaknesses in manpower and equipment quality.

As for the state of the counteroffensive, I'm still going to wait to make a call. Ukraine seems adamant that this is only the beginning of something larger so I'm not ruling them out yet (and it's definitely possible that that's the case), but I'm not going to pretend to be blown away by what we've seen so far.
 
All he needed to do was put on an olive green teeshirt and film a tiktok on the steps of the Kremlin. Then he would have come out of this looking kinda badass.
Zelenskyy is an actor and comedian. He gives the guys that are fighting for him an ideal.... while at the same time making sure they're paid on time. That's why he's going to win.
 
There's a decent amount of partisan activity if ISW's maps are to be believed. And while I agree that Ukraine's allies should definitely have given Ukraine more and at a faster pace, I'm not unconvinced they did (or still do) have the capability for a successful counterattack, especially given Russia's demonstrated weaknesses in manpower and equipment quality.

As for the state of the counteroffensive, I'm still going to wait to make a call. Ukraine seems adamant that this is only the beginning of something larger so I'm not ruling them out yet (and it's definitely possible that that's the case), but I'm not going to pretend to be blown away by what we've seen so far.
They most definitely did not go on a full scale attack yet. It's what our friends in the other thread have been mocking as "probing". There is probably some concern about the loss of limited Western vehicles, and how will that look for their allies, seeing their pricey modern tanks burning in some field. It's a lot of responsibility and a lot of expectation that they "have to get it done", but war doesn't work like that. You cannot just launch assaults so some general in Washington or Berlin is pleased with your efforts and to improve your image with the West for more gibs.
Wagner further destabilizing Russia would've been godsend, but alas, we got swindled.
IMO people should've kept quiet about counter-anything, in the West or in Ukraine, and make no promises whatsoever, and make it clear that this is a serious war with an incredible amount of losses, and that Russia, while less competent than expected, still is a world power with lots of resources and should be treated with respect. Prigozhin understood respect for the enemy on the battlefield. I think that is a good attitude and it doesn't show weakness, IMO. Reality always wins eventually.
Oh yeah and there's also the problem of training, I hope this gets accelerated. Days ago Soloviev was threatening Romania with nuclear strikes cause we might be the place to train Ukrainian pilots with F16s, lmao. And I hope that the West is well prepared for the moment when the Soviet-era shells and ammo finally get depleted, cause Ukraine will have to be able to use NATO-issued ammo in the same quantities.
 
Wagner SA-9 takes a shot at a KA-52 (yesterday):



Looks like the Ka-52's automatic threat detection & countermeasure systems actually worked this time, which is why it popped flares on one side only.
 
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