Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[East_Clintwood]

What they would do would be general blockade/embargo fuck-fuck games of Russian navy stopping and boarding, and marines "inspecting" the ship for weapons and cargos.

I could even see them being dumb enough to go so far as actually trying to seize a vessel from a sufficiently small country that they think they can get away with it. Unfortunately I don't think they'll be dumb enough to play chicken the way they sometimes do with planes, which is a shame because watching a Grigorovich get fucking crumpled by a grain ship, and then sinking due to shitty Russian damage control would be spectacular,

If we want to pretend that some Federation Captain goes full retard and does order a missile strike on 3rd-country flagged civilian vessel, even if said vessel is NATO-flagged Article 5 couldn't be invoked unless Russia attacked them while docked in Istanbul or Romania/Bulgaria as that'd just be an attack against merchant shipping and not territory/military. The host country could request NATO do something militarily in response but couldn't invoke art 5.

Yeah, a lot of people either forget, or don't know, that invoking Article 5 is a very specific thing, and not just an automatic thing in the event of any conflict. Article 6 lays out the specific situations in which 5 can be invoked:

Article 6​

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

• on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
• on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

 

[Ghostse]

The idiots in Moscow didn't think to reinforce their Black Sea squadron BEFORE starting this war and the Turks have adamantly refused any of Russias heavy cruisers and submarines to transit the Bosphorus.

Small correction, but Russia did do a fairly significant relocation of ships from Pacific/Baltic fleets to the Blacksea in nearly a year before the invasion started. They moved about half-dozen landing ships and some of their latest model frigates. Russia was trying to get more transferred under the pretext of "refits" but Turkey (likely at the behest of the US) eventually said "lol no faggots".

I remember stumbling across a list of transferred ships at one point, and it was fair number of ships... you know, for such a tiny navy
laughs in carrier battle group

I could even see them being dumb enough to go so far as actually trying to seize a vessel from a sufficiently small country that they think they can get away with it. Unfortunately I don't think they'll be dumb enough to play chicken the way they sometimes do with planes, which is a shame because watching a Grigorovich get fucking crumpled by a grain ship, and then sinking due to shitty Russian damage control would be spectacular,

It would be hilarious, but unlikely. Military ships are significantly more solidly built than merchant shipping. OTOH, lets not discount drunken, inept Russian damage control.

A more likely scenario is that Bulgarian/Romanian Navy is dispatched to make the Russians stop harrassing civilian shipping, and someone's airforce will buzz the situation if it looks testy - the loss of the Moskva's naval S-400s is going to be smarting right about now.

Yeah, a lot of people either forget, or don't know, that invoking Article 5 is a very specific thing, and not just an automatic thing in the event of any conflict.

How has Putin been allowed to take us to the brink of WWIII again? Russia needs to accept reality, take any peace deal given to it by Ukraine. The superior peaceful slav mindset just needs to take the highroad against these baseless provocations from the barbaric west, for the good of everyone.
/sneed

 

[Polish Businessman]

Reminder that Dugin supported the genocide of rhodesia and supports non white nations and wants to overthrow "white western hegomony". A person can not be a white nationalist and a Eurasianist at the same time, its a contraian view (typical for the modern far right it seems). As Dugin is just a slavshit bastardization of Yockey.

I actually think his views on Africa are simply inherited from the Soviets without much thought. "And you are lynching Negroes" was their standard talking point for decades, they also supported the ANC and the like. And since Africans and blacks in general are (in Scott Alexander's terms) merely a far-group for a Russian, there was no correction.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

As if they're not terrifying & deadly enough, check out the deviousness of these FPV drone warheads; courtesy of Toro (Ukranian manufacturer) and Magyar:
(unable to archive video locally atm)

Telegram link

Those are high-explosive, fragmentating, multiple shaped-charges, with quite a bit of big badaboom behind it.

Whoever came up with this are pure madmen, and I salute them wholeheartedly.... because holy fuck. No wonder they're murdering Russians by the bushel.

But this shows how just one of those dinky drones can wipe out anything they hit, plus everything around it; and they're flying dozens at the at the Russians on the daily.

Spoiler: Toro production floor (w/ good boy)

And in other news as per Oryx, this is the tally of visually confirmed losses from one failed Russian assault, near Mariinka; for a single day. I've even seen many of them myself today, the footage is all over Telegram & elsewhere. Besides shitloads of APCs and tanks, the battle also killed a significant number of their heavy mobile artillery, anti-air, CinC/observation, and logistical/support elements w/ personal.
To take a coal mine.

 

[East_Clintwood]

It would be hilarious, but unlikely. Military ships are significantly more solidly built than merchant shipping

The virgin warship vs the chad merchant



Admittedly this was one of the more extreme examples. For instance there were a couple of US Arleigh Burkes that got nasty hits from civvies, but survived, a few years ago, however they're significantly larger than anything Russia has in the Black Sea, not to mention they're not crewed by drunken Russian retards.

(unable to archive video locally atm

 

[Night Crawler]

It's even sadder for the Russian Military Industrial Complex. Those two scientists were charged with trumped up charges of leaking state secrets.
The form in question? Scientific papers published in an Iranian journal. The papers had been approved for publication by their superiors.

What those arrests did was tell the entire Russian Defense Research community that if their final products don't match the absurd claims of the Russian MoD then you'll be prosecuted. Much moral, such not-Stalinism.

That's how you get the best stuff. By arresting and imprisoning all the smart people that build your super weapons. Even if they aren't that super.

 

[mindlessobserver]

They're a little bit super tho Meanwhile at Raytheon...

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Satellite image aftermath of those recent explosion(s) at the training-ground/ammo-dump in Crimea (near Staryi Krym).

Edit-
More insane FPV warheads.... like a fucking claymore:

 

[teriyakiburns]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/20/russia-war-crimes-abducting-ukraine-children-elderly/

https://archive.is/c1LMC

This private information is unavailable to guests due to policies enforced by third-parties.

 

[World in Scarlet]

Statement of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

The Russian Federation has once again blatantly violated the universal right to free navigation and deliberately undermined food security, condemning millions of people to starvation.

By openly threatening civilian vessels transporting food from Ukrainian ports, launching missile attacks and drone attacks on civilian infrastructure in peaceful cities, deliberately creating a military threat on trade routes, the Kremlin has turned the Black Sea into a danger zone, primarily for Russian vessels and vessels sailing in the Black Sea towards Russian seaports and Ukrainian seaports located on the territory of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia. Responsibility for all risks lies entirely with the Russian leadership.

The fate of the Moskva cruiser proves that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have the necessary means to repel Russian aggression at sea.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine warns that starting from 00:00 on July 21, 2023, all vessels sailing in the Black Sea in the direction of the seaports of the Russian Federation and Ukrainian seaports located in the territory of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the corresponding risks.

In addition, shipping in the areas of the North-Eastern Black Sea and the Kerch-Yenikal Strait of Ukraine is prohibited as dangerous, starting from 05:00 on July 20, 2023. The relevant navigational information for mariners has already been published.

source: UA MoD website

Edit: Girkin has an interesting idea:

A simple solution that could allow Moscow to completely stop maritime traffic to the ports of so-called "Ukraine" on the Black Sea, without using the remnants of the military fleet: enact the CAPER RIGHT. For example, if someone enterprising, not afraid (beyond reason) of death and injury, having determination and skills can (with the help of the state, of course, but also with the help of private business) equip in the ports of Crimea several dozens of small sea-going boats and several basic supply vessels for them, buy "enough" of long-range patrol UAVs and helicopters, and then get the necessary armament for them - he can easily benefit both himself and the state. By boarding, sending to the ports with a prize team all civilian ships and other watercrafts, which will have the nerve to go with cargoes to "Ukrainian" ports. (I, for example, despite the complete lack of maritime experience, would take up this case and quickly find the necessary specialists and even funding - there would be "good" and the necessary arms from the state. And, yes, "Prigozhin's Mutiny", with all desire, such "privateers" will not be able to repeat it: it is impossible to go to Moscow by boats and launches...).

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Fun trivia is that Romania fought with Russia, and owns a great deal to Russia for that war, basically our independence from kebab. History works in these weird ways.

I assume Romanians were fine with Russia, due to shared Orthodoxy (though differing in their liturgy, i.e. Slavic vs Romanian) and being allies up to 1917, and only fell out with Russia as a result of being an Axis member. Though I remember reading that the Bulgarians, despite similarly being allies of the Germans and Italians, were largely well-treated by their new Soviet liberators due to their mutually shared Slavic identity, while the Romance-speaking Romanians did not enjoy the same treatment.

 

[Vince McMahon]

https://archive.is/c1LMC

Total Zigger Death.

 

[Apathetic Luigi]

Satellite image aftermath of those recent explosion(s) at the training-ground/ammo-dump in Crimea (near Staryi Krym).

Edit-
More insane FPV warheads.... like a fucking claymore:
View attachment 5222388

This is getting to some IRA/Toyata War levels of makeshift weapons, and i like it

 

[Thomas Talus]

UN condemnations would be entered

Without Russia vetoing them?

 

[mindlessobserver]

Total Zigger Death.

And they have the nerve to call it a liberation.

 

[Vince McMahon]

And they have the nerve to call it a liberation.

Well, if you're a Buddhist, that would technically be liberation, I believe.

 

[Glowie]

I legit couldn't give a shit about the grain deal as only Africa and the middle east would suffer, thus ruining russia's standing with many nations in the area. So Russia is at a lose lose scenario with this.

Russians aim send russian grain to those nations It's a long trip from russian ports and NATO airspace.

Russia aims to destabilize Africa and rile up Muslim countries against the allied forces.

Ukraine could just sell grain to Poland and Turkey and send that grain by proxy

 

[Not At All A Lizard]

If the Ukie MoD isn't just trolling/blustering, I wonder what they'd plan to do if they actually wanted to contest the Black Sea. I doubt it's been a big priority for them so far in the context of winning the war on the ground, so whatever they have we probably haven't seen much of (apart from a handful of drone attacks).

They obviously don't have a fleet, but it's not impossible that they have (or will have, from NATO with love) way more drones and other tools to try and sink some ships with.
Main thing for me is that the Black Sea is the camping ground for all the Cool Guys' spy planes, nothing happens there without a 4K image of every sailor's well used asshole. If you want to coordinate an attack on a Russian ship and the Ukes have any viable tools to execute it, it's probably gonna be a good one.

 

[Least Concern]

They obviously don't have a fleet, but it's not impossible that they have (or will have, from NATO with love) way more drones and other tools to try and sink some ships with.

I personally think it's just bluster for now but I think what they've been able to accomplish so far with sea-drones is really interesting. I heard that what blew up the Kersch bridge this last time was basically a JetSki or Sea-Doo with its handlebars replaced with a control mechanism and packed with explosives, and that's really clever and relatively inexpensive. It's also small enough to build that I wonder if they solved the range issues by just having some infiltrated soldiers or even brave partisan civilian "fishermen" build and launch them from the occupied territories - maybe the one that blew up Kersch was even launched from Crimea itself. Get some more of those to menace or even damage Russian-flagged ships and their threats may be blunted a little.

For better or worse, with all these militarized drones going up against traditional land and sea vehicles, we might be seeing the future of insurgent warfare in the 21st century.

 

[Random Internet Person]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/20/cluster-munitions-ukraine-war-russia/

https://archive.is/Rwi3c