Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Sebastian Bacchanalia]

The LOTR analogies are really tone deaf; Tolkien was referencing WWI, and the Return of the King references a once mighty and powerful nation of men that Sauron and the orcs had methodically set out to destroy and occupy, and men retake it and destroy Mordor. It works only if NATO/Mordor. Its like they saw how memes lit up the 2016 Trump campaign and tried to recreated it regarding Hoholstan, and fail because they don't understand how that works.


"Despite their age'" lol what is the B-52

Right? These TU-95s are some of the finest pieces of mechanical engineering devised by any military anywhere at any time. No wonder they'll be in service until 2040!

 

[Vesperus]

Tolkien was referencing WWI

If Tolkien was alive he'd poke you with a sharp stick for saying LOTR was an allegory for WWI, or anything else.

 

[Gondola Enjoyer]

Russian tank engulfs in flames after direct hit by Ukrainian missiles near Zaporizhzhia!!!!!!!

Why the bolded text? Well, unless the Russian Armed Forces are using NATO tanks, that's a hohol Leopard 2A6 being destroyed by a Russian Lancet. The Sun has become pre-eminent lolcow of British tabloids.

Failed peremoga that's actually zarada.

I was throwing out a bit of hyperbole when I mentioned six million Leopard 2A6s clapped by $600 drones, but here we are.

 

[prolapsed_cranium]

Two burning questions:

First, how many men does Ukraine have left?

Second, what happens when Ukraine runs out of men?

Note when I say "runs out" I don't mean literally every Ukrainian male currently enlisted. I mean when they lose enough that manning an offensive of any kind becomes infeasible without drawing from those presumably stationed on the defensive.

Armchair Warlord drew parallels to the Wehrmacht. Based on proportion, the Ukrainians will cease to be combat effective at 350,000 casualties. EU Reichsfurher, Ursula von der Leyen, claimed 100,000 KIA in November of 2022. After much squealing from the HolHol General Staff, her office clarified it was 100,000 casualties.

I think they've cleared the 150,000 KIA as a result of this dumpster fire in the South as well as the drubbing they are suffering near Kupiyansk. The winter of 2023-24 will be the breaking point. From there, I am not sure where things go: does Zelensky rescind martial law and allow elections in 2024 which will certainly bring in a peace candidate? Do the Russians just keep gobbling territory up to the Dnieper River and then take Odess (Yes, you holhol fucks, two fucking S's) a?

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

Armchair Warlord drew parallels to the Wehrmacht. Based on proportion, the Ukrainians will cease to be combat effective at 350,000 casualties. EU Reichsfurher, Ursula von der Leyen, claimed 100,000 KIA in November of 2022. After much squealing from the HolHol General Staff, her office clarified it was 100,000 casualties.

I think they've cleared the 150,000 KIA as a result of this dumpster fire in the South as well as the drubbing they are suffering near Kupiyansk. The winter of 2023-24 will be the breaking point. From there, I am not sure where things go: does Zelensky rescind martial law and allow elections in 2024 which will certainly bring in a peace candidate? Do the Russians just keep gobbling territory up to the Dnieper River and then take Odess (Yes, you holhol fucks, two fucking S's) a?

Using WW2 as a benchmark is a terrible idea mainly because of the fog of war. Western intelligence and tracking of units is practically omniscient compared to the WW2 era of flying planes overhead and snapping pictures that have to be examined with a magnifying glass later on. The ability of the defender to parry offensives has dramatically increased in the past 20 years merely because of satellite imagery, GPS and low cost drones being accessible. Its not out of the question to say that Ukraine, even as depleted and backwards as they are, is a force almost as "technologically advanced" as the US military during the 2003 invasion. GPS is widespread, they have encrypted digital communications (when the shit doesn't get stolen) all troops should be wearing body armor and digital camo, most should have optics on their rifles (once again provided it doesn't get stolen), shit like Blue Force Tracking is an option if the Ukrainian military could pull their head out of their asses, the Mormons use off the shelf Android phones and software to do Blue Force tracking for their militias in Mexico. The only thing Ukraine lacks compared to the 2003 US invasion forces is an overwhelmingly advanced air force. Russia will have serious trouble doing advances just like Ukraine did on their offensive -- some of these battlegrounds have been frozen since 2014, Avdiivka has been a thorn in the side of the people in Donetsk City since 2014 and Russia hasn't been able to advance much on that region because its one of the most fortified areas in the world. Russia can easily have an offensive blow up in their face just like Ukraine did, war isn't one party just hammering away at the other, Ukraine can still make a Russian "victory" indistinguishable from defeat just by making the lives spent not worth the squeeze.

 

[inception_state]

Armchair Warlord drew parallels to the Wehrmacht. Based on proportion, the Ukrainians will cease to be combat effective at 350,000 casualties. EU Reichsfurher, Ursula von der Leyen, claimed 100,000 KIA in November of 2022. After much squealing from the HolHol General Staff, her office clarified it was 100,000 casualties.

I think they've cleared the 150,000 KIA as a result of this dumpster fire in the South as well as the drubbing they are suffering near Kupiyansk. The winter of 2023-24 will be the breaking point. From there, I am not sure where things go: does Zelensky rescind martial law and allow elections in 2024 which will certainly bring in a peace candidate? Do the Russians just keep gobbling territory up to the Dnieper River and then take Odess (Yes, you holhol fucks, two fucking S's) a?

They aren't going to hold elections. Zelensky doesn't have to, because Ukraine's constitution suspends elections until the end of martial law. This article goes into more detail, and has some unintentionally comedic sections when it comes to voting laws: https://archive.fo/ykRKM

Ukraine has a system of robust procedures to ensure the integrity of the voting process. All ballot boxes must be visible by observers and members of the precinct electoral committee at all times so that no stuffing of ballots or other malfeasance can take place. Similarly, the counting of ballots must occur in a single sitting in sight of all observers and committee members. How can constant oversight of ballots, voter lists, and other important documents be maintained as everyone shuffles off to the bomb shelter? How can security be maintained when everybody in the voting hall and lined up outside needs to crowd into the limited shelter space?

Wow, a single sitting? We had to wait two weeks for some ballots to be counted.

Laws for voting abroad stipulate that Ukrainian citizens must travel in person to a polling station (located at an embassy or consulate) to cast their ballot on election day.

US citizens abroad can vote by mail from anywhere.

At present, Ukraine also has no system for absentee voting. Ukraine’s entire voting system relies on in-person ballot casting, even for people who are hospitalized (there are polling stations inside hospitals) or who are bedridden (polling workers bring ballots and a ballot box directly to the doors of those who cannot leave home). There is no current or planned capacity to organize large-scale mail-in or drop-off balloting in Ukraine.

If we tried to apply any of these measures, they would be called undemocratic voter suppression.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

I've even already seen NATO simps crying that it's not portraying the Abrams correctly for 1985.
Translation: The Abrams can be killed by T-72s or Malyutka/Fagot missiles and the T-72's upper glacis and front turret armor can stop its AP shots.

I'm no Russophile, but they are going throw a fit then when they hear of the man portable 9M13 Konkurs (1962) and the tank based 9M112 Kobra (1976) ATGMs. I think they'd get a stroke upon hearing about Agona 9k128 and Refleks 9M119 introduced on the Soviet tanks in 1985.

Don't forget Shtora-1 EOCMDAS introduced in 1988 to fuck with SACLOS and SALH missles like TOW, HOT and Hellfires.

The NATO simps going to be even more assmad when the devs implement the USSR and the T-80s and T-64s show up alongside Mi-24 gunships.

If we're gonna talk about "realistic" games...

Dangerous Waters is a good older subsim with ASW roles since it was built to be a USN trainer a (play with the RA mod despite some Russian bias but much more realistic). Hopefully Modern Naval Warfare will be the successor with a fully modeled SSN-744

Some fun weapons of note in real life. Crazy ass engineers to come up with this stuff

• 65-76 kit*, a 655mm wakehoming torpedo designed to split a carrier in half by itself (predecessor was a nuclear tipped 65-73) with 500lbs of explosive, a max range of 100km and powered by hydrogen-test-peroxide (itself highly explosive).
• Shivkal "super-cavitating" torpedo (basically torpedo with a rocket than forms an air cavity and travels faster than sound)
• RBU-1000 mounted on the Soviet battlecruisers, nuclear depth charges with a kill radius of 3km and 500m deep.
• RUR-5 AsRoc (Missile that drops a torpedo on a parachute) with a nuclear warhead in the USN.

*No longer in use since the Russians lost the sub Kursk due to one going boom in the torpedo tube. For comparison the USN's Mk45 ADCAP is 533mm x 5.7 meters and the 65-76 is 655mm x 11 meters

 

[prolapsed_cranium]

Using WW2 as a benchmark is a terrible idea mainly because of the fog of war.

The comparison is the percentage of the population that can be sustained as losses. The Ukrainians have a drastically smaller population and can only face probably 2% loss before they collapse. I wish I could find his thread, but my google-fu isn't very good today.

Russia will have serious trouble doing advances just like Ukraine did on their offensive

There's nothing between them and the Oskil River. Once they get to the East bank, they can start putting pressure on the Bakhmut front and likely cause the AFU to blow their wad, meant for the Southern offensive, dealing with a force to their rear.

They aren't going to hold elections. Zelensky doesn't have to, because Ukraine's constitution suspends elections until the end of martial law. This article goes into more detail, and has some unintentionally comedic sections when it comes to voting laws: https://archive.fo/ykRKM

I know. That's why I offered the idea that he repeals Martial law and allows elections.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

The comparison is the percentage of the population that can be sustained as losses. The Ukrainians have a drastically smaller population and can only face probably 2% loss before they collapse. I wish I could find his thread, but my google-fu isn't very good today.

Based on what? The traditional metrics of warfare where you can only mobilize or lose x% of your fighting age population because of industry/agriculture are far less relevant in this war since Ukraine is being supplied by the entire Western world. Japan mobilized 1/4 of its entire population in 1945 and Paraguay probably (the exact numbers are unknown) mobilized over half of their male population in their war against Brazil in the mid-19th century. Both countries had no one supplying them. So outside of your Vince McHohol types who are dodging the draft and living large as "refugees" abroad, Ukraine still has millions of soldiers to burn through. Wouldn't be surprised if even labor can be supplemented--just get NATO soldiers/foreign volunteers manning the ammo plants or farms (paid for by your tax dollars).

The only thing stopping the Kiev regime from this scenario is internal resistance be it corruption (we know it's relatively easy to bribe your way out of the country or bribe a recruiter) or violence (i.e. beating the shit out of a recruiter). As one look at the internet shows, there's plenty of khokhly partying it up every night in Lvov and other cities in Galicia. Even Kiev seems to be a good spot for youths to party. If they started recruiting more heavily from this segment of the population, the war might end a little sooner. Once Mykola, his father Taras, and grandfather Petro all end up dying in a trench, maybe their neighbors will start thinking differently about the war.

 

[Meh123]

Dangerous Waters is a good older subsim with ASW roles since it was built to be a USN trainer a (play with the RA mod despite some Russian bias but much more realistic). Hopefully Modern Naval Warfare will be the successor with a fully modeled SSN-744

Some fun weapons of note in real life. Crazy ass engineers to come up with this stuff

65-76 kit*, a 655mm wakehoming torpedo designed to split a carrier in half by itself (predecessor was a nuclear tipped 65-73) with 500lbs of explosive, a max range of 100km and powered by hydrogen-test-peroxide (itself highly explosive).
Shivkal "super-cavitating" torpedo (basically torpedo with a rocket than forms an air cavity and travels faster than sound)
RBU-1000 mounted on the Soviet battlecruisers, nuclear depth charges with a kill radius of 3km and 500m deep.
RUR-5 AsRoc (Missile that drops a torpedo on a parachute) with a nuclear warhead in the USN.

Absolutely loved that game.. gives you a glimpse how hard is it to locate an enemy using passive sensors and TMA only..
Just a little nitpick:
it's VA-111 Shkval (squall), and it's nosecone creates a low pressure (near vacuum) bubble around the torp (since that's what cavitation is about: forming of low pressure bubbles)

 

[Midwit]

Second, what happens when Ukraine runs out of men?

They'll switch their concription laws to Scraping the Barrel and use all the military XP they got from grinding to create a 40 width armoured division with all the NATO equipment and use it to break the Russian lines.

 

[Sir Joahim Browinson III]

Two burning questions:

First, how many men does Ukraine have left?

Second, what happens when Ukraine runs out of men?

Note when I say "runs out" I don't mean literally every Ukrainian male currently enlisted. I mean when they lose enough that manning an offensive of any kind becomes infeasible without drawing from those presumably stationed on the defensive.

Poles and balts are likely to sweep in given a chance.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

If Tolkien was alive he'd poke you with a sharp stick for saying LOTR was an allegory for WWI, or anything else.

It's off-topic but Tolkien made it clear he was extremely distressed by the industrialization that took place, destroying forests and farmland, as Saruman and the Urik-hai proceeded to do in Fangorn and the Shire. WWI extracted a terrible toll on the psyche of those who fought in it, as contemporaries like Erich Maria Remarque and Ernst Jünger show. LOTR is not a WWI allegory but he saw the Battle of the Somme and other engagements. He began writing the nucleus of the LOTR world while he recovered from trench fever, and CS Lewis, his friend and also a WWI veteran of trench warfare, said the battles in LOTR have the qualities of the Great War in many of its depictions. What he was adamant about was that LOTR is not about WWII so no pointy sticks from the professor (I hope).

After this war is over we will have a huge number of works from the surviving soldiers, from both sides, although I feel it will be mostly in Russian, as the language is used by both sides, and it lends itself to literary expressions extremely well as anyone who has read Russian literature can tell you (Ukrainian may as well but its really used by a small segment of the Western Ukrainian population and there is no large compendium of literature since prose was written in Russian or Polish, the languages of the educated upper classes). I've read some poetry written by those on the Russian side and its excellent, and poignant, especially from Donbass soldiers. They saw themselves as Ukrainian; Russian speaking ethnics, but Ukrainians nonetheless. This war changed that, and the effect on their identity has been hard, and tragic.

 

[TrainWreckWatcher]

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There is nothing more depressing than the drone aerial footage of people sweeping fields for mines and seeing all the exploded scorch marks around them from the people who came before them and failed.
I am really legitimately confused what their mine clearing tactics have been as every compilation I've seen seems like some dude with a rifle putting it on the ground before him and walking over it hoping a mine doesn't go off (It almost always goes off).

That or a vehicle freaking out as someone fires on it, popping smoke and them driving into a mine the 6 other wrecks on the road somehow missed doing the same thing.

In case you're wondering, enlisting\conscripting disabled people is not a show of army's strengh, that's a desperation that is coming from either lack of human resources (because jews know nothing about "where, when and why we shall stop?") or absolute amorality of the regime that see no difference between a healthy individual and one that might to be missing limbs, organs, or mental stability.

Oinkers will keep denying the obvious, so would the sheep. Muh sad, but that's what the culling is for, and thy cometh.

Second, what happens when Ukraine runs out of men?

See the above. They're already recruiting the cripples and the simple minded.

We're going to see one of two things. They start enlisting 12+ to the frontlines or someone in command wakes up at the 12+ enlistment realizes that this is a fate worse than becoming part of Russia again and Zelly has an "accident" and dies tragically where the new commander comes in swiftly and organizes a surrender.

One things for sure though, the rich kids and high up MP kids will never see combat their parents will have them in Poland or some other fancy country well before things finally go south.

 

[demicolon]

Wut

Are they trying to make the hohols sound like fucking elves or something?

Well, elves from Dwarf Fortress eat human flesh and pester you every trade visit with tree-cutting demands...

 

[Feline Supremacist]

So the Ukronazi simps were all "muh zigger cope cages" at the start of the war but now that the hohols are using them they're quiet and don't bring them up at all lmao

 

[ZMOT]

That was a really, really well done ad. Right down to the subtle leaning back of the wife's face when the commandant leans in and the husband's intimidated Heil Zelensky.

If that's actually made by the AfD then the AfD are those rarest of all Germans - ones with a sense of humour.

all germans have humor, but if they start having fun others call it a warcrime.

but seriously, not sure how much humor the AFD has, because they're dealing with shit like constantly getting painted as NSDAP 2.0 and the like. however the meme-game is working in their favor, directly or indirectly. the butthurt over someone called "shlomo finkelstein" doing their own version of pride month, only with the colors of the national flag, was a sight to behold.


but if you wanna hear something really hilarious, the leader of the "far right" party currently in parliament is a lesbian, who worked for goldmann-sachs, lived in china for 6 years, speaks mandarin, doesn't want lgbtq shit peddled to kids or gay marriage (but is fine with with civil partnership), and here's the kicker, her partner is a woman from sri-lanka living in switzerland..
so according to the media and the rest of the politicians the new female hitler is a lesbian with an immigrant partner who has actually lived in china. you can't make this shit up.

anyway, enough offtopic, back to the hohol comedy hour.

 

[Elwood P. Dowd]

One things for sure though, the rich kids and high up MP kids will never see combat their parents

TBF I'm sure matters are much the same in Russia, and probably without the need to scamper out of the country. Hell, it is has been like that in the USA for going on two generations at this point, since the draft was repealed.

will have them in Poland or some other fancy country well before things finally go south.

I've seen lots of descriptives for Poland before, but "fancy country" is definitely a new one on me.

 

[General Emílio Médici]

"This counter offensive will stop the Russian invasion of our country and topple Putin's regime!"

"Zelensky this is the 7th time you have launched a counter offensive."

"WE MEAN IT THIS TIME!"

Have the Ukrainians hired Luigi Cadorna to plan their shit? "We need a 8th offensive guys this time."

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

I've seen lots of descriptives for Poland before, but "fancy country" is definitely a new one on me

It is compared to Ukraine. Their vodka is better too.