Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

I'm really digging through my brain trying to think of the ways an end to the war would play out. Any Ukrainian surrender would almost assuredly lead to a Government in Exile type situation as their current leadership (and global leaders) seems to be adamant that its the worlds problem to save their country, to the last Ukrainian and all that. The only way that doesn't go down is some unprecedented level of internal coup, which is unlikely with the various foreign intelligence agencies already operating with vested interest in propping them up as long as possible. Anything else, including a full blown military coup, gives them enough time to whisk away most leadership.

I suppose a mass desertion timed with a major Russian offensive could lead to captures of important government officials before they escape, but Russia is unlikely to be able to suddenly move fast enough for that in the face of a rapid collapse, and it'd be stupid for them to do so. They want the land, not the government, so risking manpower and material for a blind charge hoping the dissolution of the Ukrainian armed forces is indeed absolute is at best, extremely optimistic.

This wars gonna last until Ukraine's foreign support decides its not worth it anymore. Until that day, Ukrainians will be drafted, trained and armed in NATO countries, and either sent into the meat grinder, or if the country falls, used to stage what will be presented to our generation as the new storming of Normandy. I wouldn't be surprised if refugees who escaped find themselves chased down, drafted and sent to the fight at some point, more meat into the fire.
 
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Meh123 said:
It's VA-111 Shkval (squall)
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My brain keeps thinking of it with an I, Sorry.
It is an absolute beauty of a weapon designed for working over the enemy subs who get the drop on you and is basically a "fuck you" weapon.

TrainWreckWatcher said:
I am really legitimately confused what their mine clearing tactics have been as every compilation I've seen seems like some dude with a rifle putting it on the ground before him and walking over it hoping a mine doesn't go off (It almost always goes off).
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Proper sappers are expensive and time expensive to train compared to cannon fodder. Mine detection and removal is either by hand, vehicle, or explosive. Don't forget hand removal also might fuck you up if they put a anti-handling device (a smaller mine) underneath it.

It gets harder because there are new mine designs that use electronic (Only fielded by China, Italy and maybe US) or shock resistant fuses, mines with minimum plastic. Then add the fact you're trying to do this while under fire and have metal debris all over.
 
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Useful_Mistake said:
I legit have no words. They can’t be serious.
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LMAO. That was fast. Business Insider / https://archive.is/wip/y6gZk
(Note the time/date stamp. Posted today.)
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Either that, or maybe be a bit skeptical about cat ladies who write about the war from their home offices? . Just sayin'. The author:
janz01.PNGjanz02.PNGjanz03.PNG

I gotta think this article is a glitch in the matrix, but I still laughed. And, yeah, the cat is kinda cute.
 
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TrainWreckWatcher said:
We're going to see one of two things. They start enlisting 12+ to the frontlines or someone in command wakes up at the 12+ enlistment realizes that this is a fate worse than becoming part of Russia again and Zelly has an "accident" and dies tragically where the new commander comes in swiftly and organizes a surrender.
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The scumbags in their high command don't care. Budanov would probably chuckle
 
The Russian lawmakers have upped the age of enlistment to 30 and are making happy noises about rising it all the way to 40 or even 50.

"Everyone should serve in the army in Russia. Those who are "far behind the acceptable age" are holding the defense at the front even now and are doing quite well, it must be said, since the Ukrainian counteroffensive has not been successful so far"

- Alexey Zhuravlev, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee
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A rather unconstitutional law has also been passed. From now on, lawyers will be prohibited from helping conscripts and mobilized persons at military enlistment offices. Also, the new amendments will prohibit citizens from leaving the Russian Federation from the moment an electronic summons is issued rather than from the moment it is delivered (formerly you had to be served a paper). The fine for failing to show up at the enlistment office has been upped from 3000 rub to 30 000 rub.

I imagine they they are getting ready either for a full-scale war against NATO or creating a wealth of bodies to hold the newly occupied territories in case they decide to carry out a push to Kiev 2.0.

Shower thought: pre-WW II, Nazi Germany enjoyed a boost in culture, economic prosperity and patriotism. I am not currently seeing anything like this taking place in Russia, and the populace is less than enthused about having to die for the tzar, though apathetic compliance is sure present in many.
 
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This was presented as both a Ukrainian t-72 and a Russian t-90 going down. Either way it's a big splosion. Any tank frens feel free to clarify:

 

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Fighting Type Pokemon said:
The Russian lawmakers have upped the age of enlistment to 30 and are making happy noises about rising it all the way to 40 or even 50.



A rather unconstitutional law has also been passed. From now on, lawyers will be prohibited from helping conscripts and mobilized persons at military enlistment offices. Also, the new amendments will prohibit citizens from leaving the Russian Federation from the moment an electronic summons is issued rather than from the moment it is delivered (formerly you had to be served a paper). The fine for failing to show up at the enlistment office has been upped from 3000 rub to 30 000 rub.

I imagine they they are getting ready either for a full-scale war against NATO or creating a wealth of bodies to hold the newly occupied territories in case they decide to carry out a push to Kiev 2.0.

Shower thought: pre-WW II, Nazi Germany enjoyed a boost in culture, economic prosperity and patriotism. I am not currently seeing anything like this taking place in Russia, and the populace is less than enthused about having to die for the tzar, though apathetic compliance is sure present in many.
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US/UA/NATO is rife with speculation Russia is going to go on the offensive, and with Wagner in Belarus, I suspect any conscripts will be there to hold what gains have been made rather than to be used in an offensive. You don't use your most inexperienced troops in something like that.
 
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So I decided to check on how /ugh/bros and NAFO fellas are doing.


Screenshot 2023-07-27 085026.png

I was reading a recent sub stack by Matt Taibbi that the FBI was carrying out censorship requests on behalf of the SBU.

Something that wasn't even done for the Mossad or our greatest ally in general.

Traditional American ideals all being thrown into the dump by boomerlibs and progtard zoomers to get back at Trump and their daddies.

And in reference to Putin mocking the Poles over given Prussia as a gift by Stalin.

It does kind of explain why the Poles don't fearmonger about the Germans no longer since they already got land and gibs.

But still want more land and gibs from Russia now to "feel safe" lol.
 
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Meanwhile Wagner's Africa Story Arc continues. They aided Niger in expelling the corrupt pro-French government in a successful coup. Another blow to the corrupt colonialist regimes composing the rotten corpse of NATO.
Prigozhin said that the removal of the "pro-French" president of Niger is "in fact, gaining independence" from the people.

Wagner's boss drew attention to the fact that "former colonizers deliberately destabilize the situation in African countries, supporting terrorists and illegal gangs there to prevent further development of the former colonies."

For this reason, Prigozhin believes that Western peacekeeping missions are "ineffective."

"This is the effectiveness of PMC Wagner: 1,000 PMC Wagner fighters can restore order and destroy terrorists, preventing them from harming the civilian population of states," adds Prigozhin.
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For more background, the French have been shitting up Niger for some time. This is a victory for both Niger and everyone else who also hates the French.
 
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Save the Loli said:
Based on what? The traditional metrics of warfare where you can only mobilize or lose x% of your fighting age population because of industry/agriculture are far less relevant in this war since Ukraine is being supplied by the entire Western world. Japan mobilized 1/4 of its entire population in 1945 and Paraguay probably (the exact numbers are unknown) mobilized over half of their male population in their war against Brazil in the mid-19th century. Both countries had no one supplying them. So outside of your Vince McHohol types who are dodging the draft and living large as "refugees" abroad, Ukraine still has millions of soldiers to burn through. Wouldn't be surprised if even labor can be supplemented--just get NATO soldiers/foreign volunteers manning the ammo plants or farms (paid for by your tax dollars).

The only thing stopping the Kiev regime from this scenario is internal resistance be it corruption (we know it's relatively easy to bribe your way out of the country or bribe a recruiter) or violence (i.e. beating the shit out of a recruiter). As one look at the internet shows, there's plenty of khokhly partying it up every night in Lvov and other cities in Galicia. Even Kiev seems to be a good spot for youths to party. If they started recruiting more heavily from this segment of the population, the war might end a little sooner. Once Mykola, his father Taras, and grandfather Petro all end up dying in a trench, maybe their neighbors will start thinking differently about the war.
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Ukraine's only industry is farming and now the grain deal is dead they'll have need for way fewer farmers. Because Ukraine has zero industry they're totally dependent on American aid to keep the war going, there's plenty of spare cannon fodder, barely trained kids and geezers for home guard units that can be thrown into second wave attacks to be turned into grease stains by Russian artillery. Rough estimate there are 20 million people living under Ukrainian government rule which equates to roughly 6 million 'fighting age' men between 18-60 years of age. Even if we eliminate half of them due to various factors (disability, vital work etc), that leaves a shit ton of man power for Ukraine to potentially burn through.

What will cause the Ukrainian war effort to collapse won't be a general man power shortage, it will be a lack of logistical capacity to sustain the war, in large part because they have no industry. The west has not, and has no plan, to give over it's industries to the war effort and is being handily out produced by Russia in all aspects of munitions production. The war is also extremely expensive, not just in direct aid which amounts to half a trillion and counting but also the knock on economic effects to the west and the back door currency swaps to prevent hyperinflation in Ukraine. The Americans aren't funding this war so that Ukraine can hold it's own in the Donbas, they're funding it to defeat Russia, take Crimea, and start a colour revolution in Moscow, hence the constant agitation from the Biden regime for Kiev to launch moar offensive. Burger support is purely transactional, which the Ukrainian's of course know, hence the retarded mad rushes into fortified lines to show the Americans they're at least trying.

Ukraine has until late August before the 155mm starvation kicks in. They should be tailing back the summer offensive, it's obviously failed, and moving to a defensive posture, but that won't happen. So they'll likely get through to the Autumn rainy season having burned through another 100K men for nothing and there will be no more ammo coming from NATO. Russians are already talking about a total Ukrainian collapse come the Spring which sounds about right.
 
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Kuritan Deplorable said:
I'm really digging through my brain trying to think of the ways an end to the war would play out. Any Ukrainian surrender would almost assuredly lead to a Government in Exile type situation as their current leadership (and global leaders) seems to be adamant that its the worlds problem to save their country, to the last Ukrainian and all that. The only way that doesn't go down is some unprecedented level of internal coup, which is unlikely with the various foreign intelligence agencies already operating with vested interest in propping them up as long as possible. Anything else, including a full blown military coup, gives them enough time to whisk away most leadership.
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It's less that they've decided it's the world's job to save their country from Russia, and more that the world has decided it's their job to take Crimea from Russia. Even with a total victory by Russia, Crimea remains strategically important, so expect America to prop up some puppet government-in-exile to which nobody is loyal and which exercises no real power, but is always waiting to be the leader of our next "democratic" coup.
 
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