2023 Israel-Palestine Armed Conflict

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Kiwijews of the US, I want to know. Is this anything close to the reality of your communities, or is it just made up data? Thanks. It's basically about how Pro-Israel jews are swinging even more democrat and anti-Israel after the Hamas' actions.

 
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Occam's razor applies here. Bibi (and his government) fucked up, and fucked up hard (ignoring the initial warning, forcing the IDF to stand down when they should have gone to red alert), and his initial harsh response was overcompensating for the fact. Now, however, he dug himself into a bigger hole where he HAS to commit, because otherwise his constituents turns on him. But committing means aggravating the already volatile situation, and the IDF probably bluntly told him that going in was going to murder both the army and his career.
I think it goes beyond political leadership.

The IDF was given a bloody nose. This definitely devalues their military export sector, makes them look retarded, and degrades their strategic position vis a vis everyone around them. Anything less than stalingrad tier total death (exaggeration but they need to prove a point militarily) makes them look like pussies, faggots and unable to do shit. They therefore cannot back down geopolitically.

Beyond that they effectively have to turn their entire economy off to maintain their reservists due to how few of them there are vs what manpower requirements exist. Russia compares positively in this regard, they have a reasonable number of gopniks to throw at things and don't lose a huge fraction of their constructive labor pool. This also factors in female recruitment for the IDF, further hurting Israel's economy. This is likely why they've let some reservists go back to high alert status, rather than total mobilization, they have a time limit before the tank the economy and so forth. So they have time pressure there as well.

That said, the given goals of the operation (militarily humiliate the arabs in a definitive manner) means that the operation will necessarily be lengthy to a certain degree. I can imagine the arabs have been preparing at least a decade for this, and the IDF has not. Worth noting that anything you pummel into rubble also becomes rubble you have to clear for your armor, so the lengthy and extensive air campaign creates long term problems for a ground assault. Casualty tolerance also will go down after the initial shock of the raid wears off. People want blood, but on a long enough timeframe people start to want blood less than they want to send their cousin/nephew/brother/son/neighbor/etc into a landmine rigged tunnel and as that becomes increasingly likely we can expect casualty tolerance to lower, perhaps not to pre-war levels, but not extremely high. So over time war support will decrease I think.

Hezbollah, as far as I can tell, has played the conflict smartly, focusing mainly on antagonizing the IDF into gambling retaliatory strikes while sticking to bombarding hard targets and using ATGMs on Merkavas. This has avoided escalation, especially because of how little attention it gets (just look at this thread for example, everyone's eyes are one Gaza, not Lebanon). Hezbollah basically is needling the IDF, reminding them that if they get bogged down (they will its urban combat) they still exist and can pose a threat. This creates time pressure on the operation, but also the longer the IDF takes the longer Hezbollah and its affiliates have to mobilize and prepare for combat, which doubles down on it.

I am personally of the opinion that the USA cannot afford this war. The longer the USA has to fund the IDF and Ukraine, the higher the likelihood of a financial crisis or similar in the USA is, creating long term, but still time pressure on the IDF.

Basically you have a bunch of reasons why you really don't want to go in there, and if you do it, you want to be over very very fast. But you existentially cannot afford to not get stuck it. I would not want to be the guy stuck with planning this. No matter what happens, I think heads will roll.

Bibi's career is over in any case, the damage he's taken is unrecoverable. He's failed as a leader in the most fundamental way and he can't give hawks or doves what they want. And his main reason for bulldozing his way back into office was to stay out of jail for corruption. He can now just count the days until he goes behind bars forever.

The winner in this seems to be the US. With the IDF avoiding an invasion, they can attempt to lower the temperature of the situation. If Israeli factions start blaming each other for the lack of action rather than attacking Arab enemies it may be possible to gradually tone down the hostilities and avoid a war that Israel would demand US support for.
I could see this happening, from an outside perspective. There is also a strong 'arabist' faction within the State Department that would prefer not to go down the road on this, and beyond that further escalations risk a fight in Iran, which is basically a giant version of Gaza for the USA in terms of difficulty dealing with on the ground. So I think there are more than a few smarter people in government tearing their hair out on a Battlestar Iraqtica sequel.

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Kiwijews of the US, I want to know. Is this anything close to the reality of your communities, or is it just made up data? Thanks. It's basically about how Pro-Israel jews are swinging even more democrat and anti-Israel after the Hamas' actions.

While Jews, like literally every other nonwhite/antiwhite group in america vote overwhelmingly left wing, i don't think 95 people represents a good sample on anything.

There is also an extreme minority of hardcore trump jews who love trump. Ironically enough DJT did a lot of work in securing Israel's position diplomatically which has all evaporated overnight. Hell they let Syria back into the Arab league.
 
My
Kiwijews of the US, I want to know. Is this anything close to the reality of your communities, or is it just made up data? Thanks. It's basically about how Pro-Israel jews are swinging even more democrat and anti-Israel after the Hamas' actions.

Religious Jews are generally right-wing because they don’t like degeneracy. Libsoftiktok and Ben Shapiro are both Orthodox and reasonably representative.
 
Basically you have a bunch of reasons why you really don't want to go in there, and if you do it, you want to be over very very fast. But you existentially cannot afford to not get stuck it. I would not want to be the guy stuck with planning this. No matter what happens, I think heads will roll.
Good analysis. I think one of the lessons to be learned from warfare in the 2020s is:

Size does matter.

The Russia/Ukraine war has shown that you need large numbers of troops to fight a serious war. The US has toyed with this idea of military doctrine that focuses on special ops commandos doing surgical strikes to win the day but it's clear now that that's not enough.

Israel basically predicates its entire defense strategy on this idea, thinking that a tiny country with advanced technology can hold the entire surrounding region at bay. Advanced tech is becoming more available (see the antitank drone video on the last page) and Israel has no strategic depth or throngs of expendable people like Russia does.

I suspect that the health and attitude of the United States is one of Israel's greatest worries now. There must be conversations between the countries' leaders about how putting American boots on the ground over there is simply not feasible politically, and influential segments of the US public are now openly cheering for Hamas. Israel's calculations in the past may have been based on the idea that they could summon US troops to protect them at will but that's looking more and more uncertain.
 
Those things never should have been put in Unicode, building emojis out of text had SOVL but these new glyphs are just ugly. Not to mention the addition of pregnant man images...
Why, back in my day these two fuckers ☺☻ were all the """emojis""" we would get. You had to be creative if you wanted anything more than that (like (屮゚Д゚)屮). And we were okay with that arrangement.
Who the fuck asked for a pregnant man emoji anyway.
 
Imagine thinking that a tabletop miniatures game about war in space millennia from now has any bearing on real world stuff.

That being said, Chaos is the only true path.
I'm a Jew and holy fuck I wish I was a Tyranid.
Silly jew. 40k has a lot of factions, but tyranid is not jew!

Tzeentch is Jew. Slaanesh is Lgbt, Nurgle is India, Khorne is Muslims. Tyranids are chinamen. They eat anything.
No, no, the Squats or whatever they're called now are the Jews. Think about, who loves gold and money more than dwarves?
 
They more want to use the Palestinian issue, than to help the Palestinians. This is more about diplomatic ammunition than actual ammunition, other than random border attacks from fringe groups and missiles being fired in/terrorist attacks, I wouldn't expect any major ground offensives.
Yes, although Israel is stolen land, Arab countries could have allowed the Palestinians to relocate. It's like refusing to help a stabbing victim, just to get the satisfaction of calling his attacker a murderer.
Beyond that they effectively have to turn their entire economy off to maintain their reservists due to how few of them there are vs what manpower requirements exist. Russia compares positively in this regard, they have a reasonable number of gopniks to throw at things and don't lose a huge fraction of their constructive labor pool. This also factors in female recruitment for the IDF, further hurting Israel's economy. This is likely why they've let some reservists go back to high alert status, rather than total mobilization, they have a time limit before the tank the economy and so forth. So they have time pressure there as well.
Russia made a military mistake intervening in Ukraine with too few soldiers for the size of the battlefront.
Israel is doing the opposite, sending a thousand soldiers per km2 seems really excessive, especially with how few working age adults they have.

Good point about rubble and tanks.
 
Especially egregious is the term, colonizer. The Jews are no more colonizers than the tribes that battled the Aztecs or other aggressive Native American tribes battling each other.
You're literally the Europeans in this analogy; not the Native Americans fighting other Native Americans lmao

Saying "Israel's native population is Jewish" is akin to saying "Britain's native population is Italian" because of the Roman occupation or "Holland's native population is Spanish" because it was a colony of Spain prior to the Dutch War for Independence in the 1500s.

You wanna make a "might makes right" argument for why Jews should control the land Israel is on, fine; but save the Zionist bullshit for the American Boomercons.
Really amazing iron dome action with almost Hollywood-like sound effects from the intercepting missiles
Nigger, you can't link a description of events to an ongoing livestream. Clip that shit.
 

Hamas’s Hostage-Taking Handbook Says to ‘Kill the Difficult Ones’ and Use Hostages as ‘Human Shields’​


A hostage-taking manual that an official in the Israel Defense Forces told me was recovered in the aftermath of the Hamas attack suggests that the group’s hostage-taking on October 7 did not go according to plan. Right now, more than 200 hostages are thought to be in Hamas’s hands in Gaza. The manual suggests that the group at first intended not to spirit all of them into Gaza, but instead to take them hostage where they were found inside Israel, possibly for a protracted standoff.

The Atlantic obtained a copy of the manual from an IDF official, who vouched for its authenticity and who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the materials. Israeli President Isaac Herzog had earlier referred to the document in an interview on CNN, calling it “an instruction guide, how to go into civilian areas, into a kibbutz, a city, a moshav [agricultural co-op].” He said it described “exactly how to torture them, how to abduct them, how to kidnap them.”

Graeme Wood: What is Israel trying to accomplish?

The hostage-taking, according to the manual, is meant to happen “in the field,” in areas that have been “cleansed” and brought under control. After the hostages are brought together, it says, they should be culled (“kill those expected to resist and those that pose a threat”); the others should be bound and blindfolded, then “reassured,” to keep them docile. “Use them as human shields,” it says, and use “electric shocks” to force compliance.

“Kill the difficult ones,” it adds. It specifically notes the need to separate women and children from men—confirmation that the snatching of children was planned from the start, and not the product of some kind of excess fervor following battlefield success. The manual specifies that only senior field commanders should negotiate with Israeli authorities, and then only with the advice of their own superiors, presumably still in Gaza. The final section, which has circulated online but was not included in the IDF version, advises the hostage-takers to threaten to kill prisoners if they revolt, or if Israel attacks or tries to gas them. (The document otherwise matches the one I received from the IDF, which would not authenticate the final section.)

The manual is printed out and marked confidential on top. It is written in Arabic, and includes a guide to Israeli military ranks and weaponry. There is one small, handwritten comment on the first page, and the graphics on the cover suggest that it was an official production of the unit that created it. It is impossible to tell whether the manual was a guide for all hostage-taking operations, or only for those at the site where it was recovered. The document bears a cover with the seal of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades (Hamas’s military wing), and a watermark from something called the “al-Quds Battalion.”

All of the manual’s instructions suggest that the scenario originally envisioned was a standoff within Israeli territory. Such standoffs occurred over the course of the attack, such as in Kibbutz Be’eri, but none lasted for days, as the attackers seem to have expected. A whole section is devoted to “supplies,” in particular the hoarding of food and drinks, flashlights, batteries, and other equipment useful in holding out during a protracted siege. “Don’t use your own supplies to feed the hostages,” it cautions, “except in an emergency.”

The apparent discrepancy between the situation Hamas seems to have planned for and the one that is still unfolding explains some of the haphazard nature of the hostage-taking. Hostages were brought into Gaza with improvised transport, including SUVs, golf carts, and motorbikes. No such improvisation is mentioned in the manual I obtained: The Hamas members appear not to have expected that they could transfer their victims in such a disorderly manner, or indeed transfer them at all. Just as nearly all Israelis were shocked at how little resistance Hamas encountered, Hamas itself was likely put off balance by its quick dominance of the battlefield and ability to continue dominating it for hours, without encountering the full force of a modern military.

Graeme Wood: Hamas may not have a step two

The al-Quds Battalion barely exists online. Subunits of armed groups in Israel and Palestine proliferate and divide rapidly, so the existence of a new named group is not itself unusual. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), another group with a significant presence in Gaza, has an al-Quds “brigade” (saraya). And on October 6—the day before the Hamas atrocities—PIJ announced that an al-Quds “battalion” (katiba) would operate in the West Bank. But this manual is clearly marked as an al-Qassam Brigades operational manual.

A Quranic quote also appears on the cover: “Our forces will certainly succeed” (37:173). The author of the manual foresees the hostage situation ending—he does not say how—with Hamas leaving the site. He says to mark the burial sites of Hamas’s dead, so they can be disinterred and moved after Israel’s eventual withdrawal from the land. But the effect of Hamas’s success was not predictable either by its perpetrators or by its victims. Two hundred hostages, ranging from little babies to old women, is an order of magnitude more hostages than Israel ever contemplated in its worst nightmares, and Israel’s conviction that Hamas must now be eliminated is in large part due to the enormity of this crime. The hostage-takers carried out a more successful operation than they expected, possibly even more successful than they wished.
 
No, no, the Squats or whatever they're called now are the Jews. Think about, who loves gold and money more than dwarves?
I like gold and money because I can trade it in for a broadsword and plate mail.
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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1715465467324666061/photo/1

The First Image of the 2 American-Israeli Hostages, Judith and Nathalie Ra'anan since they were Released from the Gaza Strip earlier today by Hamas.


https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1715465467324666061
They look like they saw horrible things, I bet those animals did to them what they do to livestock on the regular.
 
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