Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Susanna]

So Russia has captured its strategic goals and is in a holding position? Won’t they need to deal with a 20 year insurgency like the US dealt with in Afghanistan?

The local population wants Russian government. Ukraine has been trying to wipe them out since 2014.
Insurgents would be an issue beyond the Dnepr, but that doesn’t seem to be a goal at the moment. A partition of the country will leave the productive and Russian-speaking part of the country with Russia, and the unproductive, backwards, western portion as probably an EU protectorate, where it will suck up money and breed nazis to migrate westward and cause every more problems for their supposed benefactors.

 

[Butterschmalz]

New variation:

Poor poor Americans. I watched some snipets from the GOP debate. Israel...bla bla bla Ukraine bla bla bla...

 

[The Foxtrot]

The local population wants Russian government. Ukraine has been trying to wipe them out since 2014.
Insurgents would be an issue beyond the Dnepr, but that doesn’t seem to be a goal at the moment. A partition of the country will leave the productive and Russian-speaking part of the country with Russia, and the unproductive, backwards, western portion as probably an EU protectorate, where it will suck up money and breed nazis to migrate westward and cause every more problems for their supposed benefactors.

And the Clownworld Regime is too stupid to realize these guys will cause even more trouble than the Religion Of Peace(TM) refugees in the long term, especially if these neonazis really start believing that victory was in their grasp until the dirty Jews running the EU and USA stabbed them in the back and let the Bolshevik Hordes run over them...kind of like how their idol thought after WW1.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

So Russia has captured its strategic goals and is in a holding position? Won’t they need to deal with a 20 year insurgency like the US dealt with in Afghanistan?

Russia wouldn't be able to hold all the territory it currently does with so few troops if the people living there didn't want them there.

 

[BULLY HUNTER_78]

Russia wouldn't be able to hold all the territory it currently does with so few troops if the people living there didn't want them there.

I should probably clarify: wouldn’t Ukraine basically be a worse version of Gaza and the West Bank for Russian-controlled Ukraine? I don’t see the NATO munitions drying up anytime soon.

They might bide their time for decades but they’ll eventually try to settle the blood debt like Hamas recently did, wouldn’t they?

 

[Susanna]

I don’t see the NATO munitions drying up anytime soon.

They already are. NATO has given all the ammunition they can, it’s why the yanks sent those cluster bombs in the first place. They’re desperately ramping up production to meet their own needs (and failing), there’s no chance they’ll give more equipment to the Ukraine.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

I should probably clarify: wouldn’t Ukraine basically be a worse version of Gaza and the West Bank for Russian-controlled Ukraine? I don’t see the NATO munitions drying up anytime soon.

They might bide their time for decades but they’ll eventually try to settle the blood debt like Hamas recently did, wouldn’t they?

Ukraine isn't full of religious fanatics who believe paradise is waiting for them if they kill enough Jews. Do you think when this is over that very many surviving Ukrainians will be willing to sacrifice their lives to kill a Russian or two? If so why aren't they already fighting instead of kidnapping teenagers off the street and drafting women?

Do you think anybody in the other thread who ran away on Day 1 will be strapping a suicide vest on for vengeance? LOL even.

 

[BULLY HUNTER_78]

Ukraine isn't full of religious fanatics who believe paradise is waiting for them if they kill enough Jews. Do you think when this is over that very many surviving Ukrainians will be willing to sacrifice their lives to kill a Russian or two? If so why aren't they already fighting instead of kidnapping teenagers off the street and drafting women?

All definitely good questions that I don’t have the answer too. Maybe the war will end with a ceasefire peace talks?

You’d think NATO would be pushing for that option if their munitions are drying up and Russia would probably want to take them up on it if they’ve already achieved their strategic goals.

 

[make_it_so]

Soviet pilots given American and English planes through lend-lease compared them unfavourably to their beloved Yak-3s, and French pilots agreed with that assessment.

Soviets loved the P-39 and B-25, though.

Kiev has something like 3 million people who would be antagonists. If Russia had ever intended to conquer Kiev by force the initial invasion army would've needed to be about 10x larger.

Which is why, again, it's more than likely that the Russians went in assuming that this was just gonna be a repeat of Crimea 2014, that they'd roll in with overwhelming force and that the Ukrainians would just roll over and they could force a quick little peace treaty in their favor. They probably didn't expect the Ukrainians to actually put up a fight.

I should probably clarify: wouldn’t Ukraine basically be a worse version of Gaza and the West Bank for Russian-controlled Ukraine? I don’t see the NATO munitions drying up anytime soon.

They might bide their time for decades but they’ll eventually try to settle the blood debt like Hamas recently did, wouldn’t they?

They already are. NATO has given all the ammunition they can, it’s why the yanks sent those cluster bombs in the first place. They’re desperately ramping up production to meet their own needs (and failing), there’s no chance they’ll give more equipment to the Ukraine.

Actual standing army shit like armor and artillery might not be able to be kept up, but small arms and ammunition could easily keep floating around for any would be Ukrainian insurgents to use for years on end, and it would be extremely easy for NATO countries to keep supplying those.

Ukraine isn't full of religious fanatics who believe paradise is waiting for them if they kill enough Jews. Do you think when this is over that very many surviving Ukrainians will be willing to sacrifice their lives to kill a Russian or two? If so why aren't they already fighting instead of kidnapping teenagers off the street and drafting women?

Do you think anybody in the other thread who ran away on Day 1 will be strapping a suicide vest on for vengeance? LOL even.

The Western Ukrainians certainly come across as full on religious fanatics with their "Total Moskol Death" and Third Reich larping civic culture.

All definitely good questions that I don’t have the answer too. Maybe the war will end with a ceasefire peace talks?

You’d think NATO would be pushing for that option if their munitions are drying up and Russia would probably want to take them up on it if they’ve already achieved their strategic goals.

You would think that, if the people involved were rational. However in case you didn't notice, our current leaders are not rational.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

All definitely good questions that I don’t have the answer too. Maybe the war will end with a ceasefire peace talks?

You’d think NATO would be pushing for that option if their munitions are drying up and Russia would probably want to take them up on it if they’ve already achieved their strategic goals.

I think Blinken has already broken the bad news that that's coming and I also believe that if Russia doesn't outright demand Kharkiv and Odessa they will at least require referendums be held to give those people the choice to join Russia (or be semi-autonomous like Donbass)

See also:

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby on Wednesday told reporters that the United States has gone through 96 percent of its funds allocated for Ukraine.

"Of the total funds that have been provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the war, which is an excess of $60 billion—and that's not just security assistance; that's economic, financial and humanitarian assistance—we've gone through about 96 percent of what's left," Kirby said during a press conference.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-delivers-bad-news-on-ukraine-aid

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

Do you think anybody in the other thread who ran away on Day 1 will be strapping a suicide vest on for vengeance? LOL even.

Maybe Vince McHohol will if the EU lumberjacks his internet and gibs.

 

[Susanna]

Soviets loved the P-39 and B-25, though.

That’s true. They absolutely hated the Spitfire, though, and lend-lease planes more often than not were obsolete hangar queens that would have been absolute death traps to fly, so in general they still preferred Yaks. The P-39s weren’t subject to this since the yank pilots hated them, so the planes that made it to the Soviet Union were in good condition and minimally used.

Actual standing army shit like armor and artillery might not be able to be kept up, but small arms and ammunition could easily keep floating around for any would be Ukrainian insurgents to use for years on end, and it would be extremely easy for NATO countries to keep supplying those.

Small arms have never been an issue, and you don’t need nation-state support to get them. You personally could outfit a terrorist cell with automatic rifles and grenades if you wanted to, as could just about anyone with some disposable income. Easier so in Ukraine than anywhere right now, since so many of these weapons are already dispersed there. Hohol terrorism will definitely be a problem in the future, but not just for Russia. Also domestically in whatever remains of the Ukraine, and in the EU and USA once the nazis figure out that they were being used.

 

[crustystipend]

They might bide their time for decades but they’ll eventually try to settle the blood debt like Hamas recently did, wouldn’t they?

It's interesting how many people don't think of or forget the NAME of the Hamas Attack. It's called Al-Aqsa Hurricane for a reason and that reason is not only the fact that Gazans are in an open-air concentration camp but that the Israeli hardliners were violating the Status Quo Agreement on Holy Places that has held FOR HUNDREDS OF YEARS to fuck with literally the third holiest religious site in Islam.
A rump Ukraine would not be encapsulated by Russia and Ukrainians would retain the freedom to speak, teach and use Ukrainian in Russia as Ukrainian is an officially recognised language in Russia. As Ukrainians do now, they have the freedom to live, work and travel within Russia and they would share their religion with Russians. All these things are very different from the situation in Palestine.

 

[Strix454]

So Russia has captured its strategic goals and is in a holding position? Won’t they need to deal with a 20 year insurgency like the US dealt with in Afghanistan?

Pre-war Ukraine was a deeply divided country with two geographical regions that didn't agree with each other on much of anything And Ukraine has also been in a vicious civil war since 2015 or so. The Russians at this point don't control any hostile territory. There are isolated individuals within those occupied territories who will engage in violence, but they don't have enough strength for an insurgency.
The government in Kiev hates the people in Eastern Ukraine as much or probably more than they hate the Russians. I mean the whole reason Ukraine will hold on to Avdiivka at ANY cost is that control of Avdiivka allows them to drop artillery shells and more recently cluster bombs on Ukrainian civilians in the Ukrainian city of Donetsk.

You’d think NATO would be pushing for that option if their munitions are drying up and Russia would probably want to take them up on it if they’ve already achieved their strategic goals.

NATO is in reality a feeble, senile stupid old man in Washington who can barely walk across a room or put together a sentence. Even in his prime, he a reputation for being a dummy. And around him is a collection of vultures who have their power, sometimes money and reputations tied up in "victory" in the War in Ukraine. If Ukraine doesn't win, there are enormous bills that someone is going to have to pay. If Ukraine loses, it will default on all its international debt and all the western banks holding the ukrainian currency on their books to keep it stable are going to have lost all that money too. Then there will be the question of who is going to pay to replenish all of the NATO military supplies that the war consumed. There are voters and elections both in the United States and in Europe. A loss in Ukraine is going to go down very badly for the voters of any country whose leaders were pushing it.

The trap for Joe Biden is that he can't afford to end the war before the fall 2024 election in the US. But at the same time, he also can't afford for the war to start going very badly for Ukraine.

 

[crustystipend]

Well if Jews can fix their demographic problem and still outbred against sandniggers, Russians should be able to do the same.

Jews are "fixing" their religious problem by allowing anyone who claims they had a Jewish grandparent to acquire citizenship in Israel. Plus you have absolute travesties such as the Israelis accepting literal hill tribes from South East Asia as "Lost Tribes of Israel" - pictured below are the clearly Jewish Bnei Menashe tribe. Many of the Orthodox Jews who are doing most of the breeding in Israel don't work - less than 60% of Haredi Jews do, for example.

 

[MrJokerRager]

 

[PrimeRadiant]

So Russia has captured its strategic goals and is in a holding position? Won’t they need to deal with a 20 year insurgency like the US dealt with in Afghanistan?

To support a big insurgency you need lots of young men, foreign support and parallel lines of authority. Muslim societies are well suited to this, with a lots of young men, religious and tribal authorities providing parallel lines of authority to organise around and lots of foreign support. All Ukraine will have is foreign support. The Russians would have to put up with low level sabotage and occasional assassinations, but a real insurgency is highly unlikely.

 

[Battlefield2142EU]

Ukraine top jew went from being photogenic to being a living Hope and optimism gone meme. Hamas did more damage to Ukraine than Israel.

 

[PrimeRadiant]

View attachment 5482573
Ukraine top jew went from being photogenic to being a living Hope and optimism gone meme. Hamas did more damage to Ukraine than Israel.

These people never negotiate from a position of strength.. If they think they have a position of strength, they double down and insist on unconditional surrender. The only time they want to negotiate is when they are in a position of weakness. Its why western diplomacy is so idiotic.

If they are pushing for Ukraine to negotiate, its because they know defeat is looming.

 

[Rome's rightful successor]

How many more days do you all think this war will last?