Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Male Idiot · Nov 18, 2023

What population decline? There is plenty in Africa....

Feline Supremacist · Nov 18, 2023

Rubick said:
So, there have been telegram post from a Ka-52 pilot who claimes he helped helped to persuade/organize a Ukranian's pilot defection to Russia with his plane. And it seems to look to have good chance to be true.

https://topcor.ru/41444-ukrainskij-letchik-priletel-na-svoem-su-27-v-rossiju.html

The pilot now is still suposedly being questioned by Russian intelligence services. A public interview is planned for a later date.

Where 's the plane? I want to see it.

Pаzuzu · Nov 18, 2023

Feline Supremacist said:
Where 's the plane? I want to see it.

there was no follow-up yet

Computer Guardian · Nov 18, 2023

Rubick said:
So, there have been telegram post from a Ka-52 pilot who claimes he helped helped to persuade/organize a Ukranian's pilot defection to Russia with his plane. And it seems to look to have good chance to be true.

https://topcor.ru/41444-ukrainskij-letchik-priletel-na-svoem-su-27-v-rossiju.html

The pilot now is still suposedly being questioned by Russian intelligence services. A public interview is planned for a later date.

even if this was true, I doubt there would be too much intel this ukie pilot would have wouldn't be what we already know about Zelensky and his globohobo higher ups from what they already demonstrated.

Betonhaus · Nov 18, 2023

Male Idiot said:
What population decline? There is plenty in Africa....

That's like saying it's ok the cows are dying because rats are an invasive species.

Rubick · Nov 18, 2023

Computer Guardian said:
even if this was true, I doubt there would be too much intel this ukie pilot would have wouldn't be what we already know about Zelensky and his globohobo higher ups from what they already demonstrated.

Status of his Squadron/ regiment, locations of the planed or operational makeshift airfields, tactics and everything he might have heard from higher command.

Rome's rightful successor · Nov 18, 2023

This is concerning....

prolapsed_cranium · Nov 18, 2023

Rome's rightful successor said:
This is concerning....
View attachment 5505095

Their mil-bloggers are always doomers.

Resuppling a few companies is about the best the AFU can do. They couldn't figure out battalion level maneuvers when they had land based supply routes. This isn't going to turn into a Ukrainian Overlord.

Vesperus · Nov 19, 2023

Rome's rightful successor said:
This is concerning....
View attachment 5505095

Source = my ass, or this a totally real thing that's actually happening?

I only ask because Russia ran out of shells in March last year, according to trusted sources.

Audit · Nov 19, 2023

I fail to see the strategic value of Ukraine opening up a new front while foreign arms are in jeopardy, manpower is low, and the territory being assaulted is of dubious importance. The Dnieper river is a good defensive line if they don't have the ability to make a hard push toward Crimea. At best, they get a foothold across the river that they can never exploit. Then again, it's hard to say if there is any winning move for Ukraine now that their summer offensive failed miserably. Playing defense and preventing Russia from conquering valuable territory is probably the best option. They can't afford to lose Avdiivka, but I'm sure whoever is calling the shots is more worried about serving their US State Department masters than win the war.

On a related note, Azov and the other nationalists seem to have gone dark. I guess the useful idiots have been mostly killed off in vainglorious combat and won't get the chance to question if Ukraine is being purposefully genocided by foreign interests.

Romeo · Nov 19, 2023

Going to recap and connect the dots of what has happened in the past month and a half, so you can get a gist of how successful are the Russians in their attempt to capture Avdiivka, a powerful Ukrainian-held stronghold that have been shelling the Russian-held city of Donetsk in the south.

Donetsk Front - 42 Days of the Avdiivka Offensive

Invasion Update - November 18th, 2023 - Day 633

Introduction

Starting on October 8, the Russian Ground Forces (Russian Army) have launched a massive offensive to take Avdiivka, which is currently held by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Failed attempts to seize Avdiivka over the past year and a half have proven a massive disadvantage to those who live in Donetsk, as they have endured constant shelling by the Ukrainians since 2014. Failure to take this city before the invasion ends will be viewed as a betrayal by Russia among the citizens living in Donetsk as they had endured shelling by the Ukrainians without consequences for them. Capture of Avdiivka will mean the end of the shelling of Donetsk.

Avdiivka is considered to be the most powerful stronghold set up by Ukraine in the Invasion, as the AFU has built up its impenetrable defenses since 2014. As Russia is on the offensive to seize the stronghold, it is expected to incur heavy losses than the Ukrainians in the first days of the offensive.

The battle will not be easy for the Russian Army, as it requires a considerable number of troops to carry out the enveloping movement that forces the Ukrainian withdrawal from this place. Direct assaults are useless in the face of the enormous amount of fortifications present within the locality, so we will witness fighting on the outskirts from the north, south and east after the arrival of numerous reinforcements to the region in recent weeks, reinforcements that had hardly taken place previously in an axis where the Russian forces, and more specifically the Republican militias have been in a minority with respect to the Ukrainian side. To see Wagner's troops in this front will allow us to know if it is the second Bakhmut that was so much predicted. - SuriyakMaps

I will split the offensive into three sub-fronts:

South-east Avdiivka is where the Promka Industrial Area is located. However, this area of control has not changed since 2022 due to strong defenses set up by the AFU. The Russian Army has to trek through these defenses to reach Promka, of which it will be a key area later in the Offensive.
West of Avdiivka is Sjeverne and directly north-west of Sjeverne is Tonenke. Tonenke and Sjeverne are twin towns that guard a supply route to Avdiivka in the north. Due to this, these towns are heavily defended by the AFU, and the Russians have failed to capture over the year and a half. The Russians have to assault these towns from areas south-west of Avdiivka around their base at Vodyane, which is south of Sjeverne.
North of Avdiivka is Krasnohorivka, which was captured by the Russian Army in Spring-Summer 2023, and is used as a Russian base to launch assaults at Avdiivka form the north. Several objectives for the Russians in this sub-front is to capture the landfill that serves as heights, and to then launch assaults across the railway west of Krasnohorivka, which is defended by the AFU. Then, they will have to capture the Avdiivka Coke Plant, another Ukrainian stronghold that defends Avdiivka in the north.

Week 1 (October 8 to 14) - Starting operations with mixed to successful results and heavy losses

Footage from recent engagements in Avdiivka as Russian Forces assault with large amounts of vehicles taking losses. - WarLeaks18+

South-east of Avdiivka

For the first time since 2022, the Russian Army has advanced north of Butovka-Donetska mine and managed to capture AFU positions along the M-30 Road south-east of Avdiivka on October 8. (1)
Four days later, the Russians seized a series of trenches directly east of their advancement, reaching the railway. (2) Soon, on 14 October, Russian troops fully consolidate its positions in the recently captured Almaz-1 fortifications, adjacent to the railway south of Avdiivka. (3)

October 8 - Day 1	October 12 - Day 5	October 14 - Day 7

1	2	3

South-west of Avdiivka (Sjeverne)

On October 10, the AFU managed to capture positions northwest of Opytne and northeast of Vodyane following a failed Russian assault to advance towards Sjeverne. (1) This is followed by another failed attempt to advance towards Sjeverne on the day after. (2)
Finally, on October 12, the Russians made a successful yet minimal advance towards Sjeverne and the quarry northwest of Opytne, (3) where they will clash with Ukrainian forces in the next two days. (4)

October 10 - Day 3	October 11 - Day 4	October 12 - Day 5

1	2	3
October 14 - Day 7

4

North of Avdiivka (Krasnohorivka)

This is where the Russian Army have endured the brute force of the artillery shelling by the AFU, where numerous Russian armor was seen damaged or destroyed.
Despite this, Russian forces managed to capture numerous AFU positions south-west of Krasnohorivka in their advance the Avdiivka Coke Plant. (1) In their advancement towards the Plant, the Russians engaged with AFU forces for control over the Avdiivka Landfill Hill (1), in which they managed to capture the day after. (2) This allowed the Russians full control of the heights over the surrounding territory, such as the Avdiivka Coke Plant.
That day, there was a battle to seize control over the railway west of Krasnohorivka that continued to 12 October, (2) which the Russians managed to make limited advances but are struggling to consolidate this position against Ukrainian assaults. (3)
The Russian Army soon was forced to withdraw from the Avdiivka Landfill Hill as it was possibly too costly to defend on 13 October. On the other hand, Russian forces recaptured positions north of Krasnohorivka that were lost at the end of August.

October 10 - Day 3	October 11 - Day 4	October 12 - Day 5

1	2	3
October 13 - Day 6

4

Week 2 (October 15 to 21) - Russia makes minimal to significant gains towards Avdiivka

Video footage shows Russian advances along the M-30 road which led to the capture of Almaz-1 fortifications on 18 October.

The Russian offensive in Avdiivka continues, despite the losses of the first days the troops have managed to establish themselves in the first fortifications and begin to focus on the adjacent forest towards the Tsarska Okhota resort, a key position from where they can monitor the supply lines between the city and the industrial sector, possibly the most fortified area. From the last movements it is very possible that the southern fronts are going to have much more protagonism in this offensive from where it will be intended to enter in urban combats on the one hand and to take the localities of the west to create the encirclement to the city on the other hand. - SuriyakMaps

South of Avdiivka (Sjeverne)

On 16 October, the Russian Army have made advances west in the north of the Ukrainian-held town of Pervomaiske (which is an entirely different front, and is a stalemate as territory switched hands multiple times) reaching Novoavdiivskyi Pond. Northwest of Vodyane, the Russian Army soon seized a series of hills and AFU positions located 2 km south from Tonenke. (1)
The grey area is soon expanded north-west of Vodyane when fighting was reported between the Russians and Ukrainians in this area on 19 October, (2) of which the Russians were later repulsed two days later. (3)

October 16 - Day 9	October 19 - Day 12	October 21 - Day 14

1	2	3