Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

snov said:
Weren’t the yanks working on some sort of “cloaking device” for their tanks? IIRC actively masking the thermal signature of the tank so that instead of looking like a tank it looks like a car?

I wonder how they got past the second law of thermodynamics. Even if they could make the tank look like a hatchback on a thermal imager it would still be like twenty times hotter than any car, and the “masked” portions of the vehicle would still stand out against the background and produce an easily recognisable silhouette.
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Coupla things. First, everything above a threshold temp is just white. It can be 100 degrees or 1000, and it's just white. So if you can change the shape of the signature, you don't really make it look "hotter."

Second, this is what our favorite tanks look like through passive IR devices:

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You don't want to shoot if you don't know what you're firing at. At the minimum, you give away your position. At worst, you hit a friendly or civilian. This is even more true with an ATGM. You've got one shot, and you just wasted it on some earthmoving equipment, and now the enemy knows exactly where you are. Maybe you just blew up a cheap decoy, and there's an enemy sniper using it to hunt ATGM crews.
 
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Vesperus said:
Given that we've seen Russians cheerfully evaporate normal road vehicles with a kornet, this may not be the winning strategy they think it is.
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Russians are using ATGMS to take out passenger cars.
"Russians are 'running out of missiles' "

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  • even with continued Western military support to Ukraine, Moscow still has time on its side.
  • it’s imperative the U.S. and its allies convince Russia that this isn’t actually the case.
  • the best way to do this is to offer Ukraine a credible security guarantee, which makes clear to Moscow it will never be able to conquer the rest of the country - an immediate and binding bilateral security guarantee to bridge the gap similar to the step they took after inviting Finland and Sweden to join NATO in 2022.
  • a guarantee could take a variety of forms — though it would likely fall short of NATO Article 5 but could perhaps say the USA “would act to meet the common danger” but leave the details unspecified.
  • this would reassure Kyiv and signal to Moscow that Ukraine’s security is of lasting importance to the U.S. and its allies.
 
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crustystipend said:
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  • even with continued Western military support to Ukraine, Moscow still has time on its side.
  • it’s imperative the U.S. and its allies convince Russia that this isn’t actually the case.
  • the best way to do this is to offer Ukraine a credible security guarantee, which makes clear to Moscow it will never be able to conquer the rest of the country - an immediate and binding bilateral security guarantee to bridge the gap similar to the step they took after inviting Finland and Sweden to join NATO in 2022.
  • a guarantee could take a variety of forms — though it would likely fall short of NATO Article 5 but could perhaps say the USA “would act to meet the common danger” but leave the details unspecified.
  • this would reassure Kyiv and signal to Moscow that Ukraine’s security is of lasting importance to the U.S. and its allies.
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The end is near. For 18 months I've been predicting that we'd know it was over when the West starts celebrating Ukraine achieving a victorious stalemate against Russia (once they've taken all the Ukrainian territory they want). The only real question is whether UKR is forced to give up Odessa.
 
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SaidNoOneEver said:
The end is near. For 18 months I've been predicting that we'd know it was over when the West starts celebrating Ukraine achieving a victorious stalemate against Russia (once they've taken all the Ukrainian territory they want). The only real question is whether UKR is forced to give up Odessa.
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If it was a stalemate it would be worth celebrating, but it isn't, Russia took a roundabout and longer than expected amount of time to realize that armored thrusts to capture huge chunks of the country uncontested was impossible, since that realization they've been doing a stellar campaign of attrition by shortening the line to something manageable and abandoning unproductive but valuable footholds like the Kherson bridgehead they had established. The Ukrainians are currently fucked because they have a delusional leader who is trying to continue offensive action when its not working and refusing to negotiate, they're absolutely bleeding manpower because of this deranged "strategy." They don't have equipment parity where it matters so they always come off worse for every action they engage in, they'll lose 400 guys in a week on specific sector of the front solely to Russian artillery, but wank themselves off to a video of a drone dropping a grenade next to a BMP killing 5 Russians, the numbers game just doesn't work in their advantage. Russian society is fully briefed on why they're intervening in the Ukrainian civil war and the wider geo-political underpinnings with NATO trying to surround them, war fatigue will come far slower for Russia than it does for Ukraine, which already seems to be wavering.
 
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crustystipend said:
  • the best way to do this is to offer Ukraine a credible security guarantee, which makes clear to Moscow it will never be able to conquer the rest of the country - an immediate and binding bilateral security guarantee to bridge the gap similar to the step they took after inviting Finland and Sweden to join NATO in 2022.
  • a guarantee could take a variety of forms — though it would likely fall short of NATO Article 5 but could perhaps say the USA “would act to meet the common danger” but leave the details unspecified.
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A vague and unspecified security guarantee that promises that the US might do something to intervene to not allow Russia to annex the whole of Ukraine is never going to be a credible security guarantee.
Though not said in the article, this is a repeat of the Ukraine proposal made in the spring of 2022 during the peace negotiations with Russia. The one Boris Johnson went to Ukraine to reject.

Many people and countries will not find this sort of thing acceptable because it creates an agreement that could making going to war with Russia over Ukraine in a future conflict the arbitrary decision of a bunch of politicians.

I think alot of this need to end the war right now is being driven by the 2024 US elections. The US government needs a ceasefire to show success and to avoid any bad news from Ukraine during the election season. I don't see it as in Russia's interests to end the war before the US 2024 elections unless Biden offers up a surrender on every point.
 
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crustystipend said:
View attachment 5527530
Link

  • even with continued Western military support to Ukraine, Moscow still has time on its side.
  • it’s imperative the U.S. and its allies convince Russia that this isn’t actually the case.
  • the best way to do this is to offer Ukraine a credible security guarantee, which makes clear to Moscow it will never be able to conquer the rest of the country - an immediate and binding bilateral security guarantee to bridge the gap similar to the step they took after inviting Finland and Sweden to join NATO in 2022.
  • a guarantee could take a variety of forms — though it would likely fall short of NATO Article 5 but could perhaps say the USA “would act to meet the common danger” but leave the details unspecified.
  • this would reassure Kyiv and signal to Moscow that Ukraine’s security is of lasting importance to the U.S. and its allies.
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Russia doesn't want the whole of Ukraine. Russia wants to keep Crimea and a defensible land corridor around it.

The USA does not want the "security" of Ukraine, whatever "Ukraine" means. Apparently, it now means "a Jewish neoliberal government in Kiev, ruling over a rump territory repopulated by Africans." What the USA wants is Crimea.
 
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"Local Ukrainian media reported that Marianna Budanova, the wife of Ukraine’s spy chief Kyrylo Budanov, was poisoned with heavy metals in what some are suspecting may be an assassination attempt. Budanov is one of Ukraine’s top military officials and has reportedly survived at least 10 assassination attempts, according to local media."

"A source with the intelligence agency told the outlet that metals found in her system were uncommon in “everyday life and military affairs,” and suggested that it could be an intentional attempt to poison a specific target. Sources told publication Ukrainska Pravda that she was “most likely poisoned through food.” "

 
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No Scope said:
Oh, I thought that was for the F16's only. However, you may be right about the Abrams too. The US did take longer to get the tanks to the Ukraine as they told them they were being refurbished, being stripped down.

RedEffect had just released a video today where he it is sure that it is the M1A1 version but is of 1 out of the 2 variants. He goes in detail to compare the two against Russia's tanks. I'm not a tank expert myself.
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They're never giving the Ukies those F-16s. They would try some sort of PR-stunt bombing and get them shot down within a week.

Also, I looked into the tank situation. Biden and his bunch made a big public show of support and pledged 31 M1A2 Abrams to Ukraine.

The Pentagon promptly contacted them, basically saying "Stop promising stuff without asking us! Under no circumstances are we shipping any M1A2s to Ukraine."

But Big Boy Biden kept promising it and the Pentagon decided to throw him a bone for some fucking reason. They ended up diverting a total of 10 M1A1s (The older, outdated version)to them. These M1A1s were likely going to be gutted and scrapped anyway.

They slapped a 'Refurbished' title on the M1A1s, told Ukies that was all they're getting, and that if they ended up destroyed or in Russian hands, they could kiss any future vehicle opportunities goodbye.

The M1A1s lack a bunch of features of the M1A2, including the thermal camo, the commanders thermal scopes, improved Fire Control and Navigation systems, and several armor improvements.

And beyond that, the "Refurbished" ones are especially barebones. They pretty much have the tank, it's stock armor and optics, and no auxiliary equipment. So no smoke, no top-mounted .50cal, no reactive plates, ect.


TL;DR, they knew the Ukies are idiots and would get the M1A2s either destroyed/disabled and salvaged or outright captured by Russia. So they sent them some very old M1A1s that were likely destined for the scrap yard anyway.
 
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>tfw no Asian gf said:
By the way, what happened to the F-16 deal? Are they still coming to Ukraine? If so, when and how many?
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The first batch is supposed to arrive next March or April. Denmark has promised 19 of them in three different groups. The first group in the spring, second group in fall 2024 and the third group in 2025.

The Netherlands promised an unspecified number of F-16s next year to Ukraine. It will likely only be handful of them.

The F-16s are going to Ukraine mostly because Ukraine's existing fighter jets are from Russia. Replacement and parts are very difficult. But due to F-35 replacement of the F-16, there are lots of surplus F-16 jets in Euroep that nobody knows what to do with.

The numbers to be delivered next year are going to be so small that it will be mostly meaningless.
 
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Useful_Mistake said:
"Local Ukrainian media reported that Marianna Budanova, the wife of Ukraine’s spy chief Kyrylo Budanov, was poisoned with heavy metals in what some are suspecting may be an assassination attempt. Budanov is one of Ukraine’s top military officials and has reportedly survived at least 10 assassination attempts, according to local media."

"A source with the intelligence agency told the outlet that metals found in her system were uncommon in “everyday life and military affairs,” and suggested that it could be an intentional attempt to poison a specific target. Sources told publication Ukrainska Pravda that she was “most likely poisoned through food.” "

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And a bunch of Budanov's employees but they were too fat so it took a while to diagnose.
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kuuu said:
And a bunch of Budanov's employees but they were too fat so it took a while to diagnose.
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Can't be arsed to archive from mobile, sorry.
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The new outrage should be fun after Ukraine car-bombed the child of a Russian journalist and then blew up a bunch of people in that bar while assassinating a blogger.

The funny thing is that it's just as plausible that Ukrainian rivals did this instead of the Russians.
 
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White_N said:
used to feed Spanish pigs
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I love how the Ukrainian pig meme keeps getting deeper and deeper the more you look into things.
Feline Supremacist said:
Even if they were told why would they agree?
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It's a sign of goodwill, if you (at least outwardly) honour your agreements then people will view you as trustworthy and be more willing to make agreements with you since you've demonstrated that you're not a treacherous fucl.
 
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HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS said:
Ukraine running the war on maximum "GIMME".
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It looks like they lost the talent to grift though. I mean like grift properly. Who in their right mind wants to join the EU nowadays?

In Holland you will be elected president on the promise of LEAVING the EU as seen recently.

Great Britain already left years ago. Poland and Hungary just doing everything possible to piss of the other members. Retards like Moldavia and Ukraine want to join. Only Romania is happy...Romania:

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SaidNoOneEver said:
The new outrage should be fun after Ukraine car-bombed the child of a Russian journalist and then blew up a bunch of people in that bar while assassinating a blogger.

The funny thing is that it's just as plausible that Ukrainian rivals did this instead of the Russians.
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They carbombed hospitals and had people shoot RPGs at residential buildings to take out prominent Donetsk separatists during the peacetime after the 2014 scuffle ended, it's nothing new for Ukraine.
 
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