Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Romeo]

Donetsk Front - Day 53 of the Avdiivka Offensive​

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Invasion Update - November 29th, 2023 - Day 644

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Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine

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Recap​

For 42 days, the Russian Ground Forces (Russian Army) has made numerous gains around Avdiivka, a powerful Ukrainian-held stronghold that have been shelling the Russian-held city of Donetsk in the south.

• In the north, the Russians were able to significantly extend their area of control in Krasnhorivka, a village north of Avdiivka, capturing significant railway portions and the Avdiivka Landfill Hill from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). The latter will give the Russians a height advantage over the Ukrainian garrison in the Avdiivka Coke Plant, which is a Ukrainian stronghold that guards north of Avdiivka and the railway.
• Southwest of Avdiivka, the Russian forces made gains towards Sjeverne, a village west of Avdiivka. However, they still have not reached the outskirts of the village due to the heavily-guarded Ukrainian defenses.
• Southeast of Avdiivka, the Russian Army have launched a successful assault into Promka Industrial Area in southeast Avdiivka, putting Russian presence within Avdiivka for the first time.

I will focus on the three fronts above, but I will also focus on fronts that Russia has opened on Avdiivka.

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November 19-20 - Russia advances further southeast of Avdiivka​

November 19 - Day 43	November 20 - Day 44
1	2

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South-east Avdiivka (Promka Industrial Area, Vinogradniki, Tsarska Okhota)​

• On 19 November, the Russian Army advanced north of the railway reaching the outskirts of the ruins of the Tsarska Okhota Restaurant. (1)
• On the same day, the Russians continue fighting against the Ukrainians in the buildings near the western border of the Promka Industrial Area, while also seizing new trenches located in the 2014 defense line. (1)
• The Russian Army then repelled a Ukrainian assault from the Tsarska Okhota Restaurant (footage above and mapped below; 48.108200, 37.773333) while capturing several dachas in Vinogradniki, a dacha area right under of Promka. (2)

The Russian Army repelling a Ukrainian assault coming from the Tsarska Okhota Restaurant.​

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November 22-24 - Russia opens a new front east of Avdiivka​

November 22 - Day 46	November 23 - Day 47	November 24 - Day 48
1	2	3

East Avdiivka (Donetsk Filtration Plant)​

• The Russian Army launched a new front east of Avdiivka on 23 November, seizing No Man's Land between the 2014 borders of Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists and capturing the Donetsk Filtration Plant and many Ukrainian defenses. (2)
• However, due to the heavy Ukrainian presence on the H-20 road west of the Plant, the Russians were unable to hold onto the Filtration Plant and retreated into the captured Ukrainian defenses on the day after. (3)

The breaking of the initial line of defense from the east (2) means the opening of a new focus of pressure for the Ukrainian forces in Avdivka. However, there is still a natural barrier to reach the urban area in addition to the defenses around the H-20 road. The surrounding forest is full of trenches and defenses similar to those present in Vinogradniki, from where troops begin to approach the quarry adjacent to the Promka industrial plant where attacks also continue.

South-east Avdiivka (Promka Industrial Area, Vinogradniki, Tsarska Okhota)​

• On 22 November, the Russian Army captured more dachas in Vinogradniki. (1)

War footage​

(i) The Russian Army shelling the Tsarska Okhota Restaurant (48.111716, 37.772818 ) which is under the control of Ukrainian Army. (ii) Meanwhile recent video fooftage shows Russian tank attacking Ukrainian positions in Promka Industrial Area (48.117240, 37.791294). The end of the video shows Ukrainian troops withdrawing towards the urban part of Avdiivka through the O0542 Road / Yasynovatskyi Avenue (48.123147, 37.781496).

(i) (ii)

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November 25-26 - Russia fully captures Promka and more Ukrainian fortifications

November 25 - Day 49	November 25 - Day 49	November 26 - Day 50
1	2	3

North Avdiivka (Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka Coke Plant, Avdiivka Landfill)​

• On 25 November, the Russian Army have slowly advanced along the tree line adjacent to the Avdiivka Coke Plant where they are clashing with the Ukrainian garrison. (1)

Southeast Avdiivka (Promka Industrial Area, Vinogradniki, Tsarska Okhota)​

• The Russians have fully seized the Promka Industrial Area from Ukrainian control as AFU soldiers have withdrew back towards central Avdiivka on 25 November. (2) Already referenced by the thread here.
• On the day after, the Russian Army advanced northeast of Promka Industrial Area and along the H-20 road and captured a series of Ukrainian fortifications adjacent to the Forest. (3)

Prediction​

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After the capture of the Promka industrial zone (2) the next objective will be the capture of the Vinogradniki quarries and farms from where they can monitor the Ukrainian movements in the forest zone, precisely the penetration into the urban zone will continue to be reduced by taking new parts of the Yasynovatskyi avenue from where to establish fire control over the lower part that divides the city. Simultaneously the Russian troops will seize the forest zone reaching the rear of the Ukrainian defenses along the H-20 in order to achieve the solid control over the Donetsk filtration station. However, as previously stated, the Russian advance will be difficult due to the large number of defenses in this forest zone and a collapse of forces is not expected as long as the northern front does not make progress.

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November 27-29 - Russia fully captures Promka while Ukraine pushes the Russians back in the north​

November 27 - Day 51	November 27 - Day 51	November 28 - Day 52
1	2	3
November 29 - Day 53
4

North Avdiivka (Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka Coke Plant, Avdiivka Landfill)​

• On 27 November, the AFU launched a counter-attack and recaptured the destroyed village of Stepove after withdrawing from the village on 15 November. The Russian soldiers that occupied the tree line east of the village were soon forced to withdrew back to the railway. (1)
• The AFU launched a counter-attack that pushed the Russians back south of the Avdiivka Landfill Hill, and are fighting Russian forces over control of the Avdiivka Treatment Plant southeast of the Avdiivka Landfill Hill. Moreover, the Ukrainians repelled a Russian assault towards the Avdiivka Coke Plant (4).

Southeast Avdiivka (Promka Industrial Area, Vinogradniki, Tsarska Okhota)​

• The Russian Army seizes the last dachas of Vinogradniki following Ukrainian withdrawal reaching the quarry at the outskirts of the city on 27 November. (2)

Southwest of Avdiivka (Sjeverne)​

• On 28 November, the Russian Army made small advances south of Sjeverne, but still unable to reach the outskirts of the village. (3)

Recent video footage shows Russian Army attacking Ukrainian troops in the last dacha out of its control (48°06'45.7"N 37°47'06.0"E) in the southern part of the city. This is the last defensive position of the Ukrainian Army before the urban area in this axis. - SuriyakMaps​

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Ukraine launches an offensive towards Horlivka​

It is to note that sending reinforcements to Avdiivka is not the only solution that the Ukrainians have in defending the stronghold against the Russian offensive. The AFU launched an assault towards Horlivka achieving minimal gains in hopes of siphoning the Russian war effort from Avdiivka to Horlivka. Horlivka is a major city in Donetsk Oblast under control of Russia north-east of Donetsk and Avdiivka, but is also near the 2014 borders between Ukraine and the separatists, similar to Donetsk.

November 17 - Day 41	November 20 - Day 44	November 22 - Day 46
1	2	3

• On 17 November, the AFU advanced beyond the defense line taking control over positions on the No Man's Land and crossing the 2014 DPR Defense Line. Ukrainian troops seized Terrikon Nº 2, 3, and 4 north of the Horlivka Coal Preparation Plant. However, the Russians repelled a Ukrainian assault towards Chorna Kurhanka Cinnabarite Quarry. (1)
• The AFU soon took more positions over no man's land and the 2014 DPR Defense Line despite intense Russian bombardment in the next five days, but no news was heard on this front since then, presumably due to Ukraine unable to push further. (2 + 3)

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Conclusion​

All that is left around Avdiivka now is Ukraine's best defenses that the Russian Army will have trouble capturing. The Russians will have to assault Sjeverne (from the south-west), the Avdiivka Coke Plant (from the north), and the urban center of Avdiivka (from the south-east), all are heavily defended by the AFU. In addition, capturing Stepove is untenable as the Russian forces will be flanked from three sides in addition to be heavily bombarded by Ukrainian artillery. The offensive is entering a more difficult stage, and a winter storm has struck Central and Southern Ukraine (A). Despite this, Ukraine seemed unable to push back Russian resolve, as their attempt to siphon Russian war effort from Avdiivka to Horlivka has halted.

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Crediting most of what I have to SuriyakMaps (Telegram), which has been consistently neutral and reliable, and has been my main source for posting updates in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli Invasion of Gaza threads.

Previous update: https://kiwifarms.net/threads/russian-special-military-operation-in-the-ukraine.150029/post-17193367

 

[Anasûrimbor Kellhus]

• The West could deploy industrial and financial resources that dwarf Russia’s

financial? How's that been going for them so far? Ruble crash yet? Putler run out of missiles yet?

Industrial? Don't make me laugh. Not even worth commenting on.

 

[moocow]

Never trust journalists about anything technical.

Hey I found a little typo in your post, just FYI.

 

[Strix454]

Fuel efficiency makes sense, though. Now more than ever, we’ve seen how effective drones are at taking out convoys, and the yanks need huge and constant convoys of avgas to keep their tanks running. It’s an enormous liability when Russian tanks can just use diesel.

The Abrams can optionally run on diesel. I think many of the countries they are sold to choose that option. I would think in Ukraine they would use diesel.

The dependence of the US military on big convoys was a major problem even before drones. Especially in Iraq and Afghanistan. A really part of the total US force deployed in those places would get sucked into keeping roads open and guarding convoys. The problem then was IEDs rather than drones. And I completely agree that supply efficiency should be a design consideration
for future US weapons systems.

 

[Echo_Ender]

Wouldn't the stupid "Witch" causing a hurricane in Crimea basically do as much or more damage to the Ukrainians than it would to the Russians?

Only the Ukies can't replace their losses.

 

[Strix454]

The West could deploy industrial and financial resources that dwarf Russia’s

There isn't the political will to do that anywhere in the west. People will support foreign policy adventures like Ukraine right up to the point where you raise their taxes or lower their living standards or most importantly ask them to send their citizens to fight.

They love Ukraine and its war as long as they don't have to pay for it.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

Wouldn't the stupid "Witch" causing a hurricane in Crimea basically do as much or more damage to the Ukrainians than it would to the Russians?

Only the Ukies can't replace their losses.

It says everything about Ukraine's current fighting position that a hurricane is the only thing left to pin their hopes on.

 

[The Ugly One]

Fuel efficiency makes sense, though. Now more than ever, we’ve seen how effective drones are at taking out convoys, and the yanks need huge and constant convoys of avgas to keep their tanks running. It’s an enormous liability when Russian tanks can just use diesel.

There's no more real efficiency to be gained. None. Current engine technology is already kissing theoretical thermodynamic limits, and each additional 0.1% gain requires another blowout investment in exotic materials & advanced technologies. For example, already by the 2000s, we had to start making diesel fuel injector nozzles out of exotic materials so that the high pressures required to hit U.S. emissions targets wouldn't destroy them.

The only ways to meaningfully reduce fuel consumption today are to reduce weight and reduce speed. And, of course, the way U.S. government bullshit works, a large, heavy, fantastically expensive electric engine is counted as "zero emissions" even if you burn an entire planet's worth of coal to charge it up.

This mandate is all downside and no upside for the U.S. military, which is of course a good thing from Russia's perspective.

1. It's easier to source fuel than high-tech parts, so the USA's global logistics problems will get worse, not better.
2. Lighter weight vehicles are easier to destroy.
3. They carry fewer armaments, too!
4. Nothing beats the power density of hydrocarbons, so if Army Air has to switch to eVTOLs, lmao, just forget it, lol, okay.
5. You think an Abrams can't drive far now? Wait until it's all-electric.
6. Electric & hybrid motors are not new, and the reason they've largely gone unused in the military outside of limited applications is maintenance & robustness.

Etc etc etc. Another few years of these dangerhaired fuckwits running everything, and you'll see the U.S. replacing cruise missiles and guided rockets with quad copters that take five hours to reach their targets and immediately get destroyed by Russian jammers or something.

 

[VargReallyDidNothingWrong]

Women who do this are doing it because they normally suck at giving head and give toothy head. So, bigger lips, less tooth-cutting.

This is the stupidest thing I've ever heard.

 

[Susanna]

It's easier to source fuel than high-tech parts, so the USA's global logistics problems will get worse, not better.

There's no scenario where your equipment isn't riddled with pointless tech, it may as well use less fuel. Your convoys are going to get blown up, prepare for that rather than assume that the enemy won't go after your logistics..

Lighter weight vehicles are easier to destroy.

Heavy vehicles aren't harder to destroy. Lighter is good for logistics. Maybe it'll even be able to cross a bridge or a slightly muddy road, unlike the Abrams.

They carry fewer armaments, too!

What armaments does it need? I bet you can still fit a smaller vehicle with a grenade launcher or mortar for infantry support, some ripoff kornets for anti-armour, and a remote machine gun turret for anti-infantry/anti-drone.

Nothing beats the power density of hydrocarbons, so if Army Air has to switch to eVTOLs, lmao, just forget it, lol, okay.

Agreed. Diesel-electric is the future. Electric motors mean less maintenance and greater performance, and a power plant that only needs to connect a fuel hose, a power plug, and a CAN bus or whatever could much more easily be swapped in and out of the vehicle for maintenance than an engine and transmission that needs to actually connect to road wheels. You could put the whole thing on rails and use forklifts, or even pallet jacks.

You think an Abrams can't drive far now? Wait until it's all-electric.

Diesel. Electric.

Electric & hybrid motors are not new, and the reason they've largely gone unused in the military outside of limited applications is maintenance & robustness.

Because of silly legacy nonsense like putting the electric motor behind the same transmission as the ICE. Diesel-electric is super reliable and has been in use for over a century, it's how trains work.

 

[kuuu]

Wouldn't the stupid "Witch" causing a hurricane in Crimea basically do as much or more damage to the Ukrainians than it would to the Russians?

Only the Ukies can't replace their losses.

You will need to find people who care first. Khokhols don't count - nobody asks them anyway.

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This is the stupidest thing I've ever heard.

It reads like post-op rationalisation if anything.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

LOL! They're chasing him at the end, wish the footage was better.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1729570331025678469

 

[kuuu]

LOL! They're chasing him at the end, wish the footage was better.

View attachment 5532471

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1729570331025678469

View attachment 5532472

Originally saw that in reverse: guy breaking into commissariat eager to get to the front.

 

[Sir Joahim Browinson III]

We have finally found a secret behind why Russian economy won't collapse.

Turn out the entire world's worth of sanctions can be stopped by a single Tatarian woman working in banking.

https://www.politico.eu/list/politico-28-class-of-2024/elvira-nabiullina/

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

LOL! They're chasing him at the end, wish the footage was better.

View attachment 5532471

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1729570331025678469

View attachment 5532472

Hell yeah! props to that guy, good fitness too, he climbed down fast as shit without the use of his legs either.

 

[The Ugly One]

Heavy vehicles aren't harder to destroy.

The T-90MS is pictured below.


Compared to the base model T-72, it features reactive armor, a more powerful engine, an autoloader, control systems to fire while moving, and a wide variety of systems that, overall, make it significantly harder to kill than a plain T-72. All that extra stuff weighs about 6,500 kg. If it didn't matter, you could remove everything except the new engine and have a tank that's just a T-72, but quite a bit faster. Things that make vehicles hard to kill are heavy. And, of course, it's 80% heavier than a T-34.

Now sure, you can overdo it. The challenge is building something that is juuuuuust as heavy as you can get away with, and not a pound heavier, while maximizing the amount of offensive and defensive systems you can get away with. Sure, there's an upper limit on weight, but there is a good reason that as engine technology has advanced, tanks have just gotten heavier. Sometimes, sure, you overshoot (Abrams, it turns out, is really not suited for Slavland), but the point is that weight isn't there just for the fun of being fat.

What armaments does it need?

Missiles. Rockets. Bombs. Guns. The more of them you have, the faster you can go with them, and the farther you can go with them, the more of a threat you are.

Agreed. Diesel-electric is the future.

It's significantly heavier than just diesel. It's great for trains, since the locomotive is a tiny fraction of the overall vehicle weight, but we've already been trying out various military vehicles with exactly this powertrain, and the combination of added weight & complexity (and therefore maint + logistics).

When you're designing military equipment, you want as much weight as possible to be associated with either being better at killing or being harder to kill. If you have 2000 kg in your vehicle that are only there to meet some climate agenda, that's 2000 kg that's neither for killing nor making you hard to kill, meaning it's just dead weight as far as the core purpose of the vehicle is concerned.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

The hits just keep coming.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1730300719259910372

I suspect we'll be hearing about a lot more "delays" of promised weapons that the West now knows will be futile.

 

[Strix454]

We have finally found a secret behind why Russian economy won't collapse.

Politico's entire list of 28 from Europe is an interesting read in terms of pushing the American agenda for Europe. They included Bidzina Ivanishvili on their lists to once again start pushing the idea of Bringing Georgia into NATO and the EU.

They modestly described Zelensky in the following terms:

Winston Churchill. Martin Luther King Jr. Nelson Mandela. Every once in a while, a leader comes along and single-handedly changes the course of history, not through the might of their army or the strength of their economy, but through the power of their words. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is such a leader.

They describe Alexei Navalny as the new Nelson Mandela.

Elvira Nabiullina is great because she runs Russia's economy and sends secret signals through her clothing that she objects to Putin's policies.

Gerald Darmanin is a sure thing to be next pro-EU president of France after Macon once those unfortunate rape charges are dealt with.

Roberta Metsola is the rising political rock-star of the EU because she loves abortion, Ukraine and connects to young people.

Mary Lou McDonald is going to win the Irish elections and somehow conquer northern ireland and bring socialism to all Ireland.

Petr Pavel is great because he loves Taiwan and nothing would be more meaningful than for the Czechs to start a feud with China over Taiwan.

Thomas Bach of the International Olympic committee needs to ban Belerus, Russia and so on from the Paris Olympics.

Nigel Farage is going to take over the conservative party in the UK for evil.

Jenni Hermoso is great because she saved Spain from evil men.

Tusk saved Poland from evil.

People were worried about Giorgia Meloni but in office in Italy she has done exactly what they wanted her to do on EU and Ukraine issues.

Ursula von der Leyen is the greatest leader ever for Europe and has solved every problem Europe had.

Macron is great because he defeated his critics and is now going to open France to unlimited migrants to fix its problems. And they admit that Macron is ruling by decree. But thats just great and very modern.

With the war on, Andrei Yermak is the real power in Ukraine and the person foreigners should go to in order to make deals.

Erdoğan is the great peacemaker. Everything he is doing is just about getting Turkey admitted to its rightful place inside the EU. He really loves the EU.

Maroš Šefčovič is going to ensure that the EU passes expensive new green policies no matter who objects to them.

Marine Le Pen might be ok for France now. She has rebranded herself and loves jews now. If she could just love Ukraine more.

 

[quaawaa]

They describe Alexei Navalny as the new Nelson Mandela.

A brutal terrorist who led his country to ruin after being installed in a foreign-backed revolution?

 

[IKOL]

Wait, you're telling me those Abrams tanks we've spent billions developing/producing in case of future WWIII won't actually work in Europe for half the year and are useless for Ukraine? Half-a-mile-per gallon fuel consumption too? If they aren't careful the American taxpayer might realize they've been had.

View attachment 5532181

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/11/30/the-biggest-problem-with-ukraines-m-1-tanks-they-dont-like-staying-dirty

Like that wasn't a predicted thing, right?

Spoiler: Power Leveling of a Russkie

Back in a day of my military service as contract soldier in Tank Batallion of XX Brigade, we (me and the group of fellow soldiers and one officer which were accustomed to "repair company" at local polygon our Brigade used for its soldiers to train in military skills) had one "fun" night trying to get one of the tanks off the mood pool the metal coffin have made under self. How? well, that was quite easy as it turned out, if you pick the retard as a driver.
As a result, I've spent most of the night trying to help bring this shit back onto solid ground, we had no way to call for the help of MTLB, unfortunately. But we did it. Wanna funny? It went off from that pool barely dirty (just the backside of it). Me? Oh I was covered in all the shit it was there. grass, mood, you name it.
Morale: T-90 does not care for the harsh environment, with the right crew it will live as long as henry kissinger had, if not longer.