A new Puck video is out on the recent missile attacks:
Main takeaways:
- Russia is trying a new approach this winter of launching more missiles at a time less often, since last year's campaign didn't achieve results. They hope the greater concentration overwhelms AAD.
- He doesn't believe that a barrage was a revenge attack for the destroyed landing ship, since too much preparation is needed.
- Ukraine is better prepared this winter. However, balancing that, Russia has more missile production, and a lot more Iranian-type drones, now made domestically.
- Both civilian and military objects are hit but we only see civilian strikes because of Ukraine's op-sec. Ukraine doesn't want to provide Russia valuable feedback about success in hitting defense production facilities and so on.
- Some civilian object strikes may be due to AAD or EW jamming sending missiles off-course. That is, Russia is certainly targeting civilian facilities, but still some of the damage footage we see wasn't intended.
- Finally, a reason for blowing up apartments and so on is because it's good for Putin's image, especially in regards to the upcoming totally real election. Russians get excited at seeing all that Ukrainian death and destruction and love their dear leader all the more. Or at least many do.
He also as an aside expresses confoundment that Germany is still giving lame excuses for not sending Taurus missiles. He says they'd be a great addition to Ukraine's arsenal.
All told, he covers a lot of ground in a 13 minute video.
I think he's 1/2 wrong about the attack not being revenge. Clearly the strike wasn't a last-minute plan, but I'm pretty sure the order was given in direct response to their ammo ship get BTFO.
Also remember he's got a NATO Naval officers perspective on things, so I sort of view his analysises askance.
What are the odds Obama 2.0 told the Krauts not to give the Ukes Tauruses?
Far from impossible, but Germany's leadership hardly needs an external reason to cuck out like the manchurian candidates they are when it comes to doing anything that would seriously anger Russia-senpai.
regarding the rest of you post I again remind you:
Iran is only able to make ballistic missiles to sell to Russia because in 1990s Ukraine sold them Iskander prototypes the US had paid them to destroy.
Ukrainian leadership is corrupt. Much is still incompetent. You saw in the early days of the counter offense operational control had been given to only finest soviet minds doing retarded funnel attacks like we boggle at when Russia does them. If they had more western armor, they would have just sent more ineffectively in the kill zones.
There is also a slavic beggar component. Ukraine pushed off their counter-offensive for at least a month trying to weedle more weapons from the west. That was a month Russia had time to know what was coming, where, and unlike last winter there was no rope-a-dope. They had to push into competently built hardened defenses with a enemy ready and expecting them. Who knows if that extra month any difference.
The flip side of that coin is (somewhat) the same reason Russia doesn't just load 500 fighter jets with thermobaric bombs and have them go full afterburners on Kiev - every geopolitical action has a reaction. IF the US starts going full war economy to prop Ukraine, China will respond in kind for Russia - and there's a very good chance Russia uses the escalation to go even further gloves off.
If Ukraine suddenly gets 2000 Abrams, Russia (probably rightly) can use fear of those tanks rolling to Moscow with a newly powerful Ukraine to garner support internationally. You slowly build Ukraine's force, and Russia can't bitch about fear of a sudden change at the front.
I'm not going to disagree that I think the supply of systems to Ukraine has been too slow, but also just punching the accelerator to the floor isn't the solution either.
I'm sure if you gave that offer signed Putin himself to any given zigger shit-talker on the forums, they will sperg out and give plethora of excuses.
I mean I don't want to step into the middle of a Slavic slap fight, but I'm not holding out Ukraine as some beacon of civilization - merely slightly better than Russia.
