The idea for Starfield was literally just "space/sci fi game" back in the 90's.
Whatever he worked on then that they canned is probably nothing like what Starfield turned into.
Todd looked checked out of Starfield as far back as 2022 when he did the Lex Friedman interview, and was even curbing expectations despite what people say about him lying all the time. He flat out said he didn't think it was going to be as popular as his other games IIRC.
Honestly, I think Todd realized that Starfield was a mistake by 2021 at the very latest. Probably even earlier based on reports that they wanted to push it out by 2021 before the Microsoft buyout. I think if it was up to him, Starfield would have been cancelled just like the 90's space game he worked on, but for some reason they had to announce it back in 2018 and they felt like they were stuck. This is the *real* reason Todd has made it a point to say he wishes that they would just let him announce the game like 3 months before release. Cause then he wouldn't be obligated to finish games that are clearly not working.
IDK if he is disappointed because it was supposed to be his "magnum opus" or if he's just checked out of gaming in general. He's constantly talking about retirement, but it sounds like he's stuck contractually obligated with the Indiana Jones game and Elder Scrolls VI unlike Pete Hines who was just like "See you nerdfags later!"
Between Dan Houser fucking off from Rockstar, Pete Hines fucking off from Bethesda and Todd Howard just always looking miserable, I feel like a lot of "older" western developers see what's on the horizon and want out.