Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Ghostse]

Speaking of shootdowns over the back sea, have there been any solid numbers on the Su-34 shootdowns? Last I saw the spread was 2-5, but haven't seen any followups.

PAC-2 has the range, as do Ukrainian modified S-200’s

They have the range, but getting that range means putting the launchers where Russian artillery can hit them.

This means either the unholy PAC-2 BUK is a thing, Ukraine has developed some stategy for moving launchers, Russia isn't able to spam artillery to pose a threat to them anymore. Its also possible Russia AAD has thinned/degraded to the point they can't stop PAC-2 sidewinders from hitting targets anymore.

Russian aircraft have been fucking around at the limits of PAC-2 range, so even a couple kilometers would be enough to get a shootdown on a complacent pilot. Russian airforce is also operating even more closely to the front than normal trying to dislodge Ukraine from Russia's current objectives.

Another likely change is US AWACS over the Black Sea might have gotten some ROE updates and might be providing better, more timely information to Ukrainian AAD operators. or its possible improved sensor packages for PAC-2 radar were secretly green-lit.

Feels kinda hilarious to me how if Trump was in office right now he probably would've had the US bombing Russian forces or at least given massively more support/weapons than Biden did, yet tons of Trump supporters think he'd have done the exact opposite and instead given Putin everything he wanted.

My personal head cannon is that Trump would have done a lateral move and massively hit Russia in Syria & Africa. He'd have forced the Turkroaches to actually, really apply sanctions to Russia or Trump would give the Kurds a Kurdistan, combined with doing Russian Airspace testing like they love to do over the Baltic/North sea, but all over Russia's airspace - basically DDOS Russia's airforce. In addition to probably threatening Winnie the Xi with giving Taiwan boomers if China also didn't cut off Russia economically.

But I believe this is all academic because if Trump had remained in office the Afghanistan collapse wouldn't have happened, Baghram/KIA would have remained viable strike bases in Russia's center, so Putin wouldn't have risked a Ukraine escalation. Trump also wouldn't have sabotaged US domestic oil production so Russia's removal from the global hydrocarbon market wouldn't have mattered as much, making it easier to just full on vise-down on Putin's balls.

 

[No. 7 cat]

Trump also wouldn't have sabotaged US domestic oil production so Russia's removal from the global hydrocarbon market wouldn't have mattered as much, making it easier to just full on vise-down on Putin's balls.

Wasn't one of the many things that made life really hard for the Soviet Union was that the overall price of crude collapsed in the 80s which was a disaster for them given this viscosity of their crude and the harsh places where its mostly extracted, and perhaps that Reagan and the Saudis worked something out to ensure that one of the vistas to the Soviet Union to stay afloat financially was closed off? The Saudis seem distant now from the US despite the endless leverage the US could use (high domestic US production could've allowed the US to restore a mannerly Saudi attitude even with the Khashoggi chopper up in charge). Putin was probably shocked at the timely response to the Houthis in the content of general Biden administration haplessness. The present fairly high crude price is a-ok for Putin and the Saudis. Oil is pumped from the wells (which has to happen) and it's either profitable or not too unprofitable (tankering oil to India is surely a diplomatic measure by Russia).

Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 15 had a phone call with the U.S. Joint Chiefs head Charles Brown and discussed battlefield progress.

"Informed General Brown about the situation on the battlefield as a whole and in detail on individual sections of the front. He shared the results of the analysis of hostilities in 2023 and forecasts for 2024. Together with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US, they exchanged views on issues of mutual strategic interest," Zaluzhnyi said.

Military experts say Russia intends to ramp up operations near Kharkiv and hopes to advance on the battlefield, the ISW reported on Jan. 10.

In early December, President Volodymyr Zelensky had ordered a shift to a defensive strategy after the highly anticipated counteroffensive in the southern regions had not materialized.

On Jan. 13 the United Kingdom signed an unprecedented security assistance deal with Ukraine. Visiting British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced $3.2 billion in new military aid for Kyiv, reinforcing London's support for the war-torn nation.

Kyiv Independent

Allowing Russia the opportunity to build fortified lines (the last big clearout around and to Izium etc predated that) and not gathering a truly critical mass of men to pierce Russian lines seems an error, but stripping lines along a very long frontier could've resulted in disaster, and Ukraine is having to fight without air superiority, and in fact air inferiority can usually describe their situation in many theaters of this war.

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

PAC-2 has the range, as do Ukrainian modified S-200’s

True although the S-200 launch system is large and takes a while to setup and is..... Ancient. It wouldn't be easy to miss and would have to be basically just across the Dnipro to have the range to get something over the Sea of Azov.

They have the range, but getting that range means putting the launchers where Russian artillery can hit them.

This means either the unholy PAC-2 BUK is a thing, Ukraine has developed some stategy for moving launchers, Russia isn't able to spam artillery to pose a threat to them anymore. Its also possible Russia AAD has thinned/degraded to the point they can't stop PAC-2 sidewinders from hitting targets anymore.

Russian aircraft have been fucking around at the limits of PAC-2 range, so even a couple kilometers would be enough to get a shootdown on a complacent pilot. Russian airforce is also operating even more closely to the front than normal trying to dislodge Ukraine from Russia's current objectives.

Another likely change is US AWACS over the Black Sea might have gotten some ROE updates and might be providing better, more timely information to Ukrainian AAD operators. or its possible improved sensor packages for PAC-2 radar were secretly green-lit

The Fraken-Buk is launching Sea Sparrows allegedly, and it's not even (allegedly) entering ukrainian service until later this year. Allegedly there are only two in existence at this time.

Plus the Sea Sparrow has worse performance than the original Buk missile. It's smaller, has less range and a smaller warhead. It's a Ship launched AIM-7. It's only job is to give Ukraine SOMETHING to shoot at incoming drones, Cruise missiles, and jets.

Anyway, the Patriot has an "assault mode" that's just the launcher and the radar. Two or three trucks max.... Pretty easy to miss.

Allegedly that is what got three helicopters and two jets near Kharkiv in a few minutes last year. That or Russian friendly fire.

If this was Ukraine it was a massive Intel and operational success as they essentially maxed out the Patriot's capabilities and took out an EXTREMELY rare and valuable Russian asset.

Sources differ but most estimate 8-10 operational A-50Us and maybe another 8-10 un-upgraded 1980s vintage A-50s.

The replacement A-100 has.... Two examples flying/being fitted out and are of course 3-4 YEARS behind schedule.

This is a big loss and is probably presaging a GIGANTIC Ukraine Storm Shadow/SCALP attack wave as just a few weeks ago France promised 85 more SCALPs "ASAP". The A-50 is extremely useful for tracking and engaging those as the radar is looking down at the missile.

As for more recent claimed shoot downs, it was confirmed that one or maybe two Su-30s or Su-34s were lost near Kharkiv.

Beyond that, who knows. We'll all know more in a decade or two.

 

[Cpt. Stud Beefpile]

Sources differ but most estimate 8-10 operational A-50Us and maybe another 8-10 un-upgraded 1980s vintage A-50s.

The replacement A-100 has.... Two examples flying/being fitted out and are of course 3-4 YEARS behind schedule.

Holy shit, that's a grievous operational loss. Hope they can repeat that success!

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

(tankering oil to India is surely a diplomatic measure by Russia)

India is loving cheap Russian oil and doesn't give a shit about the Western sanctions. At all.

Allowing Russia the opportunity to build fortified lines (the last big clearout around and to Izium etc predated that) and not gathering a truly critical mass of men to pierce Russian lines seems an error, but stripping lines along a very long frontier could've resulted in disaster, and Ukraine is having to fight without air superiority, and in fact air inferiority can usually describe their situation in many theaters of this war.

Ukraine is heading into greater manpower issues than Russia, simply due to population math.

Furthermore, Ukraine MASSIVELY overestimated how well the summer counteroffensive was going to do and it's come out they knew it was going to essentially fail by the end of the first week.

It's probably because they "bought their own bullshit" and thought the Russians would fold like they did near Kharkiv in August/September 2022 and that "those stupid Russian retards can't fight". NAFO-tards think like that and it gets people killed.

So now Russia is digging in even deeper and slowly advancing in certain strategic directions. They have PLENTY of prisoners or middle aged debt laden men to get to volunteer and are now offering contracts to almost any foreigner who is willing to fight. No mobilization until after the March elections, if ever.

So, it's now entered a grinding WW1 style attritional war for the next year or so until Ukraine can get enough equipment for another counter offensive and even then, who knows how that would go after the 2023 one.

As for air superiority, an entire wing (72) F-16s probably wouldn't make a huge difference as certain Russian A2A missiles outrage the AIM-120C that's the best that Ukraine could possibly get on their F-16As. Ukraine is much better served by more AA systems.

 

[Ghostse]

Furthermore, Ukraine MASSIVELY overestimated how well the summer counteroffensive was going to do and it's come out they knew it was going to essentially fail by the end of the first week.

They also jerked off for about a month trying to wheedle more support - letting Russia know they were coming and to get ready with advanced assets. Their was also insufficient prep done; recon teams with MANPADS inserted the night before would have prevented the Ka-52s being able to strike with impunity.

So now Russia is digging in even deeper and slowly advancing in certain strategic directions.

Sort of. Russia isn't really rebuilding the Surovikin Line, because building it cost the guy his career.

I've mentioned before, but I really cannot over state just how much Blood & Gutski's building program has helped Russia. Russia abandoned untenable positions and build up hardened defensives that more-or-less work with the natural and man-made terrain. They will be hell to dislodge. But the southern lines are now inside Yook artillery range, which means Ukraine can eventually crack them, and their gains to the south haven't been reversed - Russia is prioritizing trying to secure Donetsk and losing disproportionate resources doing so.

As for air superiority, an entire wing (72) F-16s probably wouldn't make a huge difference as certain Russian A2A missiles outrage the AIM-120C that's the best that Ukraine could possibly get on their F-16As. Ukraine is much better served by more AA systems

I think a limited number of... any modernish NATO fighter, wouldn't need to be F-16s, would be of benefit to Ukraine if deployed appropriately. Native JDAMs and the ability to use the GPS hunting mode on HARMs would force Russia to keep moving its air-defense radar instead of just switching them off, plus the ability to better target Storm Shadows.

A few 2,000lb JDAMs would punch some nice holes in the Russian fortifications or force Russia move their supply depots all the way back.

The Russian A2A missiles with range, the R-37s, are terrible against nimble targets; they only were able to get kills because the targeted planes were operating at tree-level in SAM range (can't go up, can't go down) and even then it took over a half-dozen launches. If Ukraine operated their F-16Cs as rear-line fighter bombers, they could deliver glide muntions to Russian front and reserve lines while staying out of the range of SAMs and if at altitude easily outrun or juke an R-37.
The presence of AIM-120, while the R-37s could be launched outside of the Sidewinder range, it would be at such extreme distance that outrunning the missile would be an option.

and to tl;dr it would allow Ukraine to leverage the fact they have curbed the BSF into irrelevance by opening a new direction to launch Storm Shadows, and making Russia redeploy AAD.

Of course the flaw here is "If deployed appropriately". Its just as likely if given modern(ish) fighters that they will give deployment of them to some slav-brained commander and waste them in close-in rocket lobs or think their fresh from flight school pilots can wild-weasel like IDF pilots over syria.

 

[mindlessobserver]

I still want the Schizo theory of the Ukrainian Navy having an off the books Kilo Class submarine hiding out in a hidden base outside Odessa to be true.

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

Their was also insufficient prep done; recon teams with MANPADS inserted the night before would have prevented the Ka-52s being able to strike with impunity.

Wouldn't have helped unless they were multiple kilometers behind the Frontline.

At the ranges the Ka-52s were hitting tanks and other targets at they would be a black spec on the horizon in the daytime and essentially invisible at night.

The newest Ka-52s are getting LMUR missile capabilities like the Mi-17 and Mi-28 so they will have even longer standoff ranges and fire and forget capabilities.

The missiles the Ka-52 uses outrages MANPADS and even smaller SPAA missiles.

Nowadays Russia is basically printing small FPV drones at even greater numbers and is learning to use them effectively.

So counteroffensive Rev 2.0 would be facing probably double or triple the drone attacks, waayyy more glide bombs, plus even more prepared defensive positions and so on.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

PAC-2 has the range, as do Ukrainian modified S-200’s

Ukraine still operates S-300 as well, which also have the range.
Not sure which model they have though.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Gotta be all the asbestos that’s been released into the environs due to the Russian invasion. Russia (and Ukraine, being a thrall of Russia) did not stop using asbestos until a few years ago.



In the years to come, rate of asbestosis, mesothelioma, etc is probably going to be through the roof with veterans of this war.

Guess you just have to avoid it asbestos you can

 

[mindlessobserver]

Ukraine still operates S-300 as well, which also have the range.
Not sure which model they have though.

Also pointless conjecture. Whatever they used, it hit two strategic targets, one of which was a full on kill, and the other a mission kill.

This is legitimately a game changer, no lie. Russia has already lost the Naval War with Ukraine, having been forced to concede the Western Black Sea to the Ukrainian Navy and Air Force. Their only saving throw has been control of the Air War. Keeping Ukraine perpetually on the defense in the Air, while insuring Ukraine cannot seize air superiority over the battle space.

This event is a huge problem, because Russia NEEDS these sorts of aerial flights to maintain battlespace control. Not just of all the bullshit Shahed Drones they fire at Ukraine on the Daily, but also to keep the Ukrainian Air Force WHICH IS STILL A THING (SHOCKING), at arms length. This will get even more important once the Ukrainian Air Force deploys the F-16's, F-18s and Gripens that are in the pipeline. With natively incorporated JDAMS, HARMS and Sidewinders. Losing one of their Air Defense Command crafts before this critical air war even started is a fucking disaster for Russia. They must now consider deploying one of the reserve air ships they have to the combat theater. And I bet BIG money the reserve aircraft were used as spare parts depot for the ONE that just got shot down.

2024 is going to be fascinating. We've already seen the Ukrainian Army smoke modern Russian tanks using the American version of the BMP. What will happen once Ukraine has the jets with the bombs and missiles?

 

[MG-34]

Ukr war Twitter personalities are sharing this video claiming it's downed aircrew from the A-50. Can any Russian speakers translate what the people in the background are saying?

 

[Ghostse]

I still want the Schizo theory of the Ukrainian Navy having an off the books Kilo Class submarine hiding out in a hidden base outside Odessa to be true.

Same. We already have Bradley's crewed by Ukrainians smoking T-90Ms, I want it to be real just so we can go full Clancy.

So counteroffensive Rev 2.0 would be facing probably double or triple the drone attacks, waayyy more glide bombs, plus even more prepared defensive positions and so on.

Drones yes; Russian glide bombs are not very effective without ground intel so if Ukraine can avoid creating grab-ass armor piles or having politicians destroy opsec they won't be a huge player; the defenses won't be like Ukraine is facing now. It will be prepared positions but using earth and timber not reinforced concrete.

This event is a huge problem, because Russia NEEDS these sorts of aerial flights to maintain battlespace control.

Ukraine got lucky with what they full-killed.
If the A-50 had just been mission killed, they could have moved the components into one of the soviet-area reserves, but its toast. Its not coming back and not getting replaced.

The flying command post is a loss, but its not going to be felt quite as hard.

 

[NewFagWhore]

View attachment 5639003

Ukr war Twitter personalities are sharing this video claiming it's downed aircrew from the A-50. Can any Russian speakers translate what the people in the background are saying?

Looks like just a bunch of dead vatniggers in the snow. Didnt the plane go down over Azov sea? I doubt the crew would be taking snow baths

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

Here's a good write-up on the A-50 shoot down.

The radar picture maps are excellent.

"

used the Cambridge Pixel software to show you how limited is the coverage by ground-based radars. For example: the map below is showing the coverage by a ground-based radar deployed in the Yevpatoriya area of the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula (one of two centres of the Russian air defences of the peninsula). As can be seen, because of the local terrain, and even if positioned atop a 50-metres-tall mast, this radar can’t detect objects approaching from the north at altitudes below 20 metres (green area), 100 metres (yellow area), and has a very limited detection capability even against objects approaching from the north at an altitude up to 500 metres (orange): it’s going to detect only objects approaching from the north and operating at altitudes above 500 metres in time to enable air defences to react.



BUT, if one puts that radar atop of an aircraft underway at an altitude of 8000 metres…

Hey! It can detect ‘everything’ out to a range of, say, 300 kilometres. It’s only going to encounter some problems with low-flying objects while these are still underway at levels below 100 metres above the mainland to the north.



What is AEW




"

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-16-january-2024-scratch?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1535927&post_id=140731370&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=17wh90&utm_medium=email

And archive: https://archive.is/MXBXt

the Ukrainian Air Force deploys the F-16's, F-18s and Gripens that are in the pipeline.

Yeah Ukraine isn't getting an F-18s for a Long time if ever and the Gripen is also a long shot.

Currently it's ~18 F-16A MLUs that are honestly at the end of their service lives.

2024 is going to be fascinating. We've already seen the Ukrainian Army smoke modern Russian tanks using the American version of the BMP. What will happen once Ukraine has the jets with the bombs and missiles?

That was two versus one at least than 300 meters. Nothing usual there, the T-90M was alone and unsupported and actually tanked (heheh) dozens if not hundreds of 25mm rounds.

It also didn't explode in a gigantic fireball.

Same. We already have Bradley's crewed by Ukrainians smoking T-90Ms, I want it to be real just so we can go full Clancy.


Drones yes; Russian glide bombs are not very effective without ground intel so if Ukraine can avoid creating grab-ass armor piles or having politicians destroy opsec they won't be a huge player; the defenses won't be like Ukraine is facing now. It will be prepared positions but using earth and timber not reinforced concrete.


Ukraine got lucky with what they full-killed.
If the A-50 had just been mission killed, they could have moved the components into one of the soviet-area reserves, but its toast. Its not coming back and not getting replaced.

The flying command post is a loss, but its not going to be felt quite as hard.

Bradley vs T-90M was interesting although if the Russians were driving a Leopard 2A7 the results would have been the same

We'll know more about the positions next.... Summer or maybe bene summer 2025.

Russia is probably estimating that once they eventually take Adviika, they'll have time to dig in and create fortresses that Ukraine won't have the firepower to easily destroy, especially in 2024.

Let's see in ~5-6 months

 

[teriyakiburns]

Let's see in ~5-6 months

This two week SMO sure is dragging. Feels like it's taken years.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

This two week SMO sure is dragging. Feels like it's taken years.

This was always the plan, comrade

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

This two week SMO sure is dragging. Feels like it's taken years.

Two weeks.... Two years

Same thing right?

 

[Climaxing Sunset]

Thoughts on the Davos peace accord in Switzerland that Zelenskyy is requesting?

Apparently Zelenskyy wants to cut back on weapons, and conduct diplomacy

 

[Judge Holden]

Thoughts on the Davos peace accord in Switzerland that Zelenskyy is requesting?

Apparently Zelenskyy wants to cut back on weapons, and conduct diplomacy

Saw the perennial "GAY HOMO UKRAINE WILL SURRENDER TOMORROW!!!" twitter retards squealing about this today, despite fact Ukraine has been talking about the peace plan/process for ending the war for years now, and continues to have it be in the context of "once russia gets kicked the fuck out of where it invaded". Guess the continued static front and failure of Ukraine to fold is causing them to reactivate old hope-n-cope stories from 2022/2023