Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Guys. It’s over. Putin lost. British news informed me that Ukraine has a secret “miracle weapon” that they just haven’t been using. Once they do, Putin is done for!
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They cited some Ivan to debunk this who allegedly has ties to Ukrainian gov but they are so secret they don’t show up in a Google Search
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In other news, advisor to Ukrainian parliament says the war can only be won against Russia if they make a science breakthrough
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He also says that Zelensky will have to do the talks with das Evil Putin
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"Maybe Putin will die soon or the people will revolt"

This is insane cope.
 
It's also not a stalemate if certain members to the conflict still have escalatory headroom.
Also these actions can be taken outside this theatre, and the Ukraine War should increasingly not be viewed in isolation from the other concurrent conflicts.

For instance, if Houthis turn Europe-bound Qatari LNG tankers into fireballs, if Israel suffers increasing attrition, or if the oil supply from the ME gets cut off, this conflict can go in certain unexpected ways. There is room for the actors to push in other theatres, some in coordination with others.
 
Didn't you get the memo ? He's already dead. Putin we see now either is a double or CGI.

It is ChatCCCP Putin! Vladnet!

All in all, yeah it is a stalemate, but one side can afford it way more. But I do feel like this can escale, shit is popping off fast. Can the Muttland be everywhere at once? Ruskies, Chinkies, dune coons all moving.
 
In other news, advisor to Ukrainian parliament says the war can only be won against Russia if they make a science breakthrough
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So we're at the "the V-2 rocket will save the war" stage? We're going about this all wrong, this should have come before "Steiner's counter-offensive will save Berlin".

If people you've trusted to advise you are saying shit as stupid as this, you're fucked. There's never going to be another invention of gunpowder ever again. You can make a fancier rocket, tank or missile, but you're never going to get another force multiplier like that, and especially not in any timeframe shorter than 20 years.
 
He's kind a right though somewhat.. on some things. Fact is the force sent wasn't enough to do a proper invasion. it was more of blitz and smash force. Meant to force Ukrainians to the table.
I agree on this. The bigger the force you send the less likely resistance is. If Putin had Marshalled 600k Troops the original plan would have worked. I think he didn't because he thought that it would be enough given how the US was able to do so well against Iraq. Which leads me into the rest of my post.

Best guess is that some people in the MoD applied a lot of shine, polish and sprinkle to the readiness reports for years and plenty of contract soldiers either existed only on paper or were never actually willing to serve in combat conditions. And this practice skewed a lot of the early planning for the operation, as no one was willing to admit that his subordinate units were Potemkin villages and hoped or even expected, to the very last moment that 'Go' command wouldn't be given by Putin.
I don't think this is what happened. There was something famous called a Battalion Tactical Group (BTG). Essentially it is a formation that is made out of a unit that is prepared to accept conscripts. It is sort of halfway a mobilization army and halfway a regular combat unit having some actual professional troops in it. This resulted in a artillery heavy, armored vehicle heavy, and infantry light unit that could be deployed really quickly. This however was a stupid idea and never should have been implemented and didn't work.

The emergence of these came about because of the 2008 Russian Military reforms. Once of the things the 2008 reforms did is they tried to focus less on conscripts and focus more on professional soldiers. But Russia couldn't go to an all Professional force really quickly so they did this weird system that was half conscript force and half professional force. This also got rid of a lot of senior NCOs who were and are the backbone of any Army. These reforms were fucking stupid and hurt the Russian Army a lot. They were basically entirely countermanded after the Ukrainian war because everyone realized they were stupid. Now a conscript system has been put in place as well.

The reason why Russia decided to do these reforms is interesting. They were trying to make their Army more like the US Army because of the massive successes the US had in Iraq. Desert Storm and Later the 2003 invasion of Iraq were viewed as tremendous successes. Everyone forgets the coalition forces had like 900k troops in Desert Storm and that Iraq was basically a Pushover in 2003.
 
Guys. It’s over. Putin lost. British news informed me that Ukraine has a secret “miracle weapon” that they just haven’t been using. Once they do, Putin is done for
Do the khokhols have a fucking chronosphere or something? Because that's pretty much the only wunderwaffe that might legitimately turn the tide of this war.
 
On 6 January 2024 a literal who (who seemed happy to stay that way) made a post about her visit to see friends in the Ukraine as follows:

I just got back from Ukraine, where I was visiting some friends.​
Everything we have heard about what’s happening in Ukraine is a lie.​
The reality is darker, bleaker, and unequivocally hopeless. There is no such thing as Ukraine "winning" this war.
- By their estimates, they have lost over one million of their sons, fathers and husbands; an entire generation is gone.
- Even in the Southwest, where the anti-Russian sentiment is long-standing, citizens are reluctant or straight-up scared to publicly criticize Zelensky; they will go to jail.​
- In every village and town, the streets, shops, and restaurants are mostly absent of men.​
- The few men who remain are terrified of leaving their homes for fear of being kidnapped into conscription. Some have resorted to begging friends to break their legs to avoid service.​
- Army search parties take place early in the morning, when men leave their homes to go to work. They ambush and kidnap them off the streets and within 3-4 hours they get listed in the army and taken away straight to the front lines with minimal or no training at all; it is "a death sentence."​
- It's getting worse every day. Where I was staying, a dentist had just been taken by security forces on his way to work, leaving behind two small children. Every day, 3-5 dead bodies keep arriving from the front lines.
- Mothers and wives fight tooth and nail with the armed forces, beg and plead not to have their men taken away. They try bribing, which sometimes works, but most of the time they are met with physical violence and death threats.​
- The territory celebrated as having been "won back" from Russia has been reduced to rubble and is uninhabitable. Regardless, there is no one left to live there and displaced families will likely never return.​
- They see the way the war has been reported, at home and abroad. It's a "joke" and "propaganda." They say: “Look around: is this winning?”.​
- Worse, some have been hoaxed into believing that once Ukrainians forces are exhausted, American soldiers will come in to replace them and “win the war”.

(I always suspected the hohols were blatantly lied to and told the US was sending an expeditionary force to the Ukraine to fight Russia any moment now. I bet many still believe that to be case; "Lets hold out until the Americans come with more tanks, artillery, drones and ammo"-edit mine)​

There is no ambiguity in these people. The war was for nothing - a travesty. The outcome always was, and is, clear. The people are hopeless, utterly destroyed, and living in an unending nightmare.​
They are pleading for an end, any end - most likely the same "peace" that could have been achieved two years ago. In their minds, they have already lost, for their sons, fathers and husbands are gone, and their country has been destroyed. There is no "victory" that can change that.​
Make no mistake, they are angry with Putin. But they are also angry with Zelensky and the West. They have lost everything, worst of all, hope and faith, and cannot comprehend why Zelenky wishes to continue the current trajectory, the one of human devastation.​
I didn't witness the war; but what I saw was absolutely heart-breaking.​
Shame on the people, regardless of their intentions, who have supported this war. And shame on the media for continuing to lie about it.​
10:37 AM · Jan 6, 2024​
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Link to post

Her post has 1.6M views, which came as a real surprise to her. What came as a shock were the NAFO shills who reported her post and tried to weaponize Community Notes in an effort to silence and discredit her. For simply posting her observations and views.

On 19 January 2024 she made a post about it:

Yesterday, a mob of bots and unverified accounts flooded my X account with comments aimed at discrediting me and everything I shared from my visit to Ukraine.​
There were hundreds of comments, and multiple attempted bogus Community Notes. I’ve been called a liar, a propagandist, a fake person, a bot farm, a paid Russian agent, a cunt, a slut, and worse. I received death threats and insults I never thought imaginable.​
I couldn't comprehend why all of these people were attacking me - a tiny account on X, simply for sharing my personal experiences without agenda.​
But now, instead of being quiet, I feel a moral obligation to highlight the coordinated and purposeful attempt to suppress my post.​
Yesterday, to add clarity and credibility to my original post, I posted a photo of my Ukraine passport visa and numerous personal pictures from my visit.​
Within a few hours, I had over 400 comments (statistically anomalous) - all following the same defamation rhetoric.​
They went to such lengths as to invade my follower list, taking screenshots and extending their sick rhetoric and name calling to people I greatly respect and follow: Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, David Sacks, Mike Cernovich, Glenn Greenwald, Libs of TikTok, etc, etc.​
They accused me of stealing my own pictures or taking them from Google - an easily disprovable absurdity. It was clearly an intentionally dishonest premise to discredit me by weaponizing Community Notes.​
The first Community Note said it's "unlikely" I've ever been to Ukraine at all, since they said - without evidence - that my pictures might have been found on Google and that the picture of my Visa has been partially redacted. Of course I redacted the image of my passport for obvious reasons. I also blurred any identifiers to protect the identity and potential whereabouts of the people that had the courage to open up and speak to me about what’s really happening in Ukraine, risking their lives and being put in jail if they spoke against the set narrative.​
It’s laughable if it wouldn't be so worrisome.​
When the first Community Note was removed, another one popped up, questioning the consistent feedback conveyed to me from many people inside Ukraine - that the real death toll could be as high as 1,000,000. They would know! In some villages, ~70% of households have lost family members to this war.​
This Note - which expectedly aligned with western media reports - grossly understates the numbers (100,000 casualties) I’ve heard from people living in Ukraine, and is even significantly below the latest report from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense of 383,000.​
To clarify, I am not saying this as fact; I'm sharing what I’ve been consistently told by REAL people living in Ukraine - that the total number of casualties is around 1,000,000.​
Thank you to everyone who sees beyond the propaganda and wants the truth to prevail. The destruction of this country and of a generation of Ukrainian men needs to stop. Peace was available 2 years ago, but other agendas prevailed.​
Real people are dying. Families displaced and destroyed forever. Peace should be everyone’s common goal.​
11:14 AM · Jan 19, 2024​

The US and SBU hohols sicced their bot farms on this poor woman to discredit her, hundreds of of them, only to instead draw attention to what she posted. I guess boomers still don't understand the Streisand Effect. And it will never change the fact what this woman observed: that the poor hohols still alive and in the Ukraine want it to end, now.

Its fine to talk about tanks, tactics and the like, but there are real people, like us, caught in the middle that just want Z-man to negotiate a peace right now. That's what the NAFO bot farm wants to silence, the narrative that they want to fight to the last hohol when the reality is only the State Department and 10 Downing are saying that.
 
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Regarding battalion tactical groups being stupid, I would argue that is kindof 20/20 hindsight. Arguably the basic concept of giving them a ton of organic firepower that they could call on at will was a viable concept that would have let them hold off large numbers of enemy infantry. In reality it didn't work that way, but even just changing the training regime to try to tighten up the coupling between their relatively low number of infantry and the attached artillery might be enough to make the idea viable.
 
I don't think this is what happened. There was something famous called a Battalion Tactical Group (BTG). Essentially it is a formation that is made out of a unit that is prepared to accept conscripts. It is sort of halfway a mobilization army and halfway a regular combat unit having some actual professional troops in it. This resulted in a artillery heavy, armored vehicle heavy, and infantry light unit that could be deployed really quickly. This however was a stupid idea and never should have been implemented and didn't work.


The formations sent where all supposed to be contract staffed once. The leadership was also not even keen to deploying conscripts into a war zone. Hence only contract soldiers were sent.

Until they had no option.

The only real explanation why the force sent supposedly fully staffed with contract soldiers. Yet, quite clearly was severely lacking in manpower from unit to unit is what I said above.


Lacking manpower from unit to unit has fuck all to do with BTG being stupid or whatever It's all manpower issue and MoD doing a lot of shine to readiness reports and shit marching on paper.


This also got rid of a lot of senior NCOs who were and are the backbone of any Army. These reforms were fucking stupid and hurt the Russian Army a lot. They were basically entirely countermanded after the Ukrainian war because everyone realized they were stupid. Now a conscript system has been put in place as well.



Except there are to many senior officers. And most of them are chair polishers. Nothing has changed It's a sickness from late Soviet era and post-Soviet times. And the officer corps really likes their cushy jobs and always fights, tooth and nail against any attempt to disband formations(even the ones marching only on paper) and reduce the number of officer positions. And they have been successful doing so.


Shoigu's tenure basically almost entirely rolled back whatever progress Serdyukov achieved as an outsider to the whole MoD cesspit

Shoigu who also was/is an outsider. Decided to play nice as not to not suffer the fate of the predecessor who pissed off a lot of people in MoD and to a degree in the MIC as a whole. And at some point he more or less integrated himself into the system and allowed to basically all channels of outside control over MoD affairs to deprecate over the years.




The reason why Russia decided to do these reforms is interesting. They were trying to make their Army more like the US Army because of the massive successes the US had in Iraq. Desert Storm and Later the 2003 invasion of Iraq were viewed as tremendous successes. Everyone forgets the coalition forces had like 900k troops in Desert Storm and that Iraq was basically a Pushover in

Nope

Russian BTG and US BCT are two different things. American BTC is a Brigade Combat Team and is build around a full-sized maneuver brigade with attached support units. A Russian BTG is a Battalion Tactical Group and is basically a level of organization smaller as it is built around a maneuver battalion (be it tank or motor rifle) with attached company of tanks if core battalion is infantry or infantry if core battalion is armor. And after that BTG gets support elements from its parent brigade or division in form of air defense detachments, artillery battalions and so on.

All this shit actually comes from the very first and then second Chechen War and how back then personnel was gathered from entire divisions and armies to complete just a battalion or two, close to the authorized strength.

BTGs were (and are) just a formalization of this practice with some theoretical justification and deemed advantages as some in the MoD noticed gathered support for.

One thing that was not supposed to happen is that there should be no cross-battalion personnel rotation to fill up BTG ranks and no brigade/division-level support units are supposed to donate men to the BTG.

But lack of manpower. This was thrown out the window. Solution would have been 'let's disband some formations to free the manpower for the rest of the units' but less formations means less officer billets ... And like i said the officer corpse likes their fucking jobs as i said above.
 
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It's not going to stay a six frigate navy because

They will impoverish us in order to make the ships, tanks and drones they need for their World War with Russia and China, and anyone else who joins them. Then they will take all the young men and women and indoctrinate them further so that they will demand to fight Russia and anyone who is aligned with her

You think it was hyperbole when I said the Ukraine was a proving ground for Russia and the West? It's not simply munitions and drones, its also testing to see what works best with the meat.

Ukrainian nationalists didn't spring up overnight. The kind that denounces his family and people to side with Ukronazis and then attacks anyone who speaks reason had to be created. Those articles and posts attacking China are also carefully curated, the videos portraying the Chinese as bug people are also crafted to dehumanize Chinese. They are most certainly planning a new world war.
The Dutch navy has a frigate tied up on port because they can't get sailors to man it

That'll be the norm for most EU Navies soon enough. The welfare state is so strong that is makes it almost impossible to man large ships and the like. Sure you'll get fighter and helicopter pilots and their support staff, maybe a brigade or two of good infantry and armor/artillery and a few thousand SF types but beyond that.... Nope.

The boring shit that armies rely on is going to get someone on cushy EU welfare to sign up.
It's worth pointing out a huge portion of why the ukranians are holding out so well is that the US is utilizing its huge orbital reconnaissance network to identify Russian supply dumps, staging grounds, et cetera, and is then essentially passing fire missions directly to 'ukrainian' himars units trained in the US and which are basically solely taking US orders.

Russian logistics is effectively paralyzed as compared to what you would expect if the ukrainians had to rely on their own equipment and intelligence gathering. Things would start going a lot worse really rapidly if the supply of intel and mid/long range artillery missiles ever dried up.
Yep, people forget that Ukraine has access to probably the best spy satellites on earth, NATO AWACS and ELINT support and similar.
The weirdest thing about that entire video is that the Bradley has a dedicated tank killing weapon called a TOW Missile that is extremely capable of destroying tanks. Why didn't they use it? Maybe they weren't trained and didn't know how. It is just weird and I don't understand why they wouldn't use it.
They might have been out or couldn't deploy the launcher in time.
AP rounds wont do shit unless you're targeting sides of Leo 1 and you'd need far more rounds of them to destroy soft targets of a tank due to lacking in fragmentations and HE. However 30 mm HEI round are equivalent of grenades going off. (Personal experiences.) And will be far more effective against "soft targets" on a tank. I assume 25 mm HEI would be almost equivalent to 30 mm HEI in this regard.
The Aussies found that their Leo 1s could be penned at close range by 20mm AP at any angle when used as target hulks on their AFV ranges.

Bradley 25mm APDS could probably deal with anything besides the turret face and maybe the upper glacis plate at a kilometer or more of a Leo 1.
 
Breaking: Multiple casualties as Ukraine shells Donetsk (Again)
Article/Archive

The attack targeted a busy market in the capital of Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic, the head of the city said.

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At least 18 people have been killed and 13 others wounded in a shelling of Donetsk by Ukrainian forces, Aleksey Kulemzin, mayor of the capital of Donetsk People’s Republic, has said.​
The attack hit a busy market in the Kirovsky District, in the south-western part of the city, Kulemzin wrote on Telegram.​
The mayor decried the shelling as “another dark day in the history of the city.” Ukrainian forces had “wickedly” decided to wreak death and destruction on the civilians of Donetsk to avenge the failures they’ve suffered on the battlefield, he wrote.​
In Kuibyshevsky District in the north-west of the capital, a Ukrainian drone also dropped a grenade on repair workers fixing a heating system. One person was injured and an excavator destroyed in that attack, Kulemzin added.​
The head of Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin has also confirmed the attack on the market, calling it “horrendous.” First responders and operatives are working at the site, clarifying the data on the dead and wounded in the attack, and searching for fragments of munitions used in the bombardment, Pushilin said earlier on Sunday.​
According to the republic’s Joint Center for Control and Coordination, three 155mm-caliber shells, a standard for NATO munitions, were fired at the Kirovsky District shortly after 10am local time (8am GMT) and three more around ten minutes later.​
DETAILS TO FOLLOW​

Patrick Lancaster (American living in Donetsk with his wife and children, has popular YT channel)
I count 21 civilians (so far) killed by Ukrainian artillery attack on civilian market in Donetsk today. More information and special video report to come. Update 22 I count now
TG Link
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Ukraine is unable to attack military targets that would further military gains so they decided to kill civilians they claim to want to liberate from the barbarian Russian horde.

Edit: Videos




Last video via Slavyangard/Readovka
“We seem to get used to it, and then again”: this is the situation now in Tekstilshchik, which was shelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and where 13 25 people died

Ukrainian terrorists brutally killed civilians in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk. The victims were shopping and died right on the doorstep of the stores. The footage of Readovka military correspondent Maxim Dolgov shows the situation after the bloody strike. The militants did not spare people - after the first arrival, as a resident said, two more fell on them.

“I was going to go there... It’s impossible, these are non-humans... So many people. It’s like we get used to it, and then we go back to the house... It’s scary,” the woman who was saved by chance said with tears.

Now emergency and operational services are working at the scene of the tragedy. Those wounded who were able to stay alive were helped by ambulance paramedics. Sunday afternoon for Donetsk residents today again became fear and pain - those who came shopping lost loved ones, friends, and just acquaintances.
 
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Guys. It’s over. Putin lost. British news informed me that Ukraine has a secret “miracle weapon” that they just haven’t been using. Once they do, Putin is done for!
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They cited some Ivan to debunk this who allegedly has ties to Ukrainian gov but they are so secret they don’t show up in a Google Search
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In other news, advisor to Ukrainian parliament says the war can only be won against Russia if they make a science breakthrough
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He also says that Zelensky will have to do the talks with das Evil Putin
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I saw a news article about the UK developing weaponized laser tech, so that's probably the new cope. How that's going to solve their manning issues is a fun little riddle though. It's like Starship Troopers where they have all this new gear but very clearly are running out of grunts to send into the meat grinder.
 
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