Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Betonhaus said:
Will the purge improve their strategy or resources in any way?
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If it is a requirement for renewed US aid it would be beneficial if the goal is to remain in the war, which at this point is not beneficial for Ukraine. Concluding the war as fast as possible is in Ukraine's best interest as NATO/US have been so tight-fisted and slow on distributing supplies that any sort of serious victory is impossible for Ukraine. Ukraine faces an apocalyptic situation no matter what course they take, surrender means the aid from NATO and EU dries up so the hollowed out Ukrainian economy implodes as its 100% reliant on aid at this point to pay pensions or government salary, to continue to fight means more attrition of the male population and destruction of basic services across the country via strategic bombing. There is literally no good way out for Ukraine at this point and I can see why Zelensky just surrendered to the flow of events, any choice he takes at this point is such a catastrophic series of disasters that it would likely lead him to being assassinated. Obviously the proper way out of this is to hold elections and leave the bag to a successor politician but it seems like he was instructed NOT to hold elections by one of Ukraine's benefactors, likely the US deepstate or the UK.
 
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Feline Supremacist said:
This began over a choice between Russia giving Ukraine an interest free loan or getting an interest laden load from the EU, with the promise they would join the EU and NATO, and get all kinds of free shit from the EU even though the free shit wasn't at all what was promised. So they could give the finger to Russia and claim they had it better, Because they were now yuros. Like in the magazines and TV. In 2013.
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If Wealthy western countries pored a fortune into the civilian economy of pre-war Ukraine, Donbass would have willingly rejoined Kiev.
That was never the plan though, hence the war and the shelling, "Our democracy" needs an impoverished and exploitable Ukraine and piles of dead Slavs on both side.
 
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SaidNoOneEver said:
The groundwork is already being laid to say Zaluzhny was ignoring NATO's perfect plans for the failed counteroffensive so that was all his fault and now they're setting up for a do-over.
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1707177565496.jpegNATO wanted a pre-desert storm slav Saddam use against Putin and China. But they gotten a gay Tony Blair instead.
 
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Overly Serious said:
nudged CIA
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lol no, the CIA needed no nudging, been at it since 1946
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These documents have been declassified since the Clinton administration I believe, and have been publicly available for a long time.

So I unequivocally disagree with your hand-wringing over the poor Ukropski who was "misled" by his CIA handlers. Mikhail Tolstykh didn't fall for it; Arsen Pavlov didn't fall for it; Alexander Bednov didn't fall for it and were all assassinated by other Ukrainians, as many were others who resisted that were murdered.

Your example is exactly the same as the old Yiddish proverb of the man on trial for murdering his parents who throws himself on the mercy of the court crying he is now an orphan. Chutzpah I think its called.
 
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Two interesting things about recent events in Avdeevka. Russians have moved to cut the city in half rather than simply encircle it signifying they aren't as a hesitant to conduct urban combat as they used to be. This means they aren't taking nearly as many as casualties as they used to. In fact, in certain scenarios Russia might prefer Urban combat to completely open terrain in regards to casualties taken.

The other thing is Ukraine did not attempt to flee the city or save the units currently defending Avdeevka. I don't know if that is going to be their consistent decision going forward or if the political turmoil in the Ukrainian government is playing a role. Either way Avdeevka will take longer to fall but Ukraine will lose more. This is a strange decision considering Ukraine seems to have issues with manpower.

That bumpy and jagged frontline from earlier is strange and IIRC I don't remember that happening in Soledar or Bakhmut. Could be a local problem that isn't present elsewhere on the front, but it really seems like Ukraine cannot throw men around as much as they used to.
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NATO stocks are getting completely depleted. It also explains how Ukraine has as much equipment as they do. We don't see it but a lot of countries are sending stuff behind the scenes. No one in the west is thinking about the long term consequences.

Netherlands to send 6 more F-16 jets to Ukraine. -Kiev Independent
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Sir Joahim Browinson III said:
So the whole hype around F-16 is to do counter-offensive but in the sky and then sweep Donbas with bombing runs?
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Yeah basically. Part of it is also about NATO not having anything else so Ukraine wants it because it is basically all Ukraine can get. All of the ground munitions and equipment that NATO countries can reasonably send has been sent.

F-16s are airplanes which means they can be shot down by the massive amounts of Russian air defense. That being said the F-16 is probably one of the better options for hunting air defense. So I predict it would be useful for Ukraine but wouldn't change the state of war.

The other elephant or should I say Lion of Judah in the room is a lot of the munitions that the F-16 can use will and is being sent to Israel.
 
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Napoleon III said:
F-16s are airplanes which means they can be shot down by the massive amounts of Russian air defense. That being said the F-16 is probably one of the better options for hunting air defense. So I predict it would be useful for Ukraine but wouldn't change the state of war.
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Maybe, but how will Ukraine's 4th string pilots in F-16's fare at taking out air defenses while experience Russian pilots will be showing up in equal/superior fighters? If I recall correctly, when the war first started and Ukraine still had an air presence, fighters were getting defeated by WWII tactics of hiding in the clouds and using a bait plane. Those were most of Ukraine's top pilots, and they're long dead.

There was a lot of argument as to if the pilots were just stupid, or the Uke radar systems were basically non-functional. They either couldn't see the trap being set, or were too stupid to not take the bait.

I think the best Ukraine can hope for is getting some close air support out of them. They could try to bait Russian fighters into their own air defenses, but the last couple years have convinced me that level of strategic forethought isn't in their tool box. If they aren't able to strike past Russia's front lines, Putin can probably ignore them as too little, too late. I would also expect just about any runway in western Ukraine capable of launching them will have a barrage of hypersonic missiles heading towards it as soon as the birds get delivered. I really hope it's not American pilots dropping them off.
 
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The thing with jets is having at least a few of them is way better than having none, so in the long term its really nice to have a squadron or two, out of proportion to what you'd expect as compared to the numbers. Its still actually way better to have thousands rather than like 20-40 though, lol.

ForTheHoard said:
how will Ukraine's 4th string pilots in F-16's fare at taking out air defenses while experience Russian pilots will be showing up in equal/superior fighters?
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Thats not really a significant factor, I think less than ten jets have been shot down by other jets for both sides combined (it might be more by now but not by much). Its pretty much all down to air defenses.
 
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Tumbo II said:
If history has taught me one thing it's that the West/Globalhomo consider themselves the arbiter everything and if anyone thinks otherwise they will topple your government and install one they like they did it to Saddam and Gaddafi they will sure as fuck try to do it to Putin.
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You're making it sound like you don't think that is what they were using Ukraine for.
 
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