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The sharply declining birthrate in Korea is projected to result in the closures of approximately one-third of daycare centers and kindergartens in the country by 2028, a report showed Tuesday.
According to the Korea Institute of Child Care and Education, there has been a 21.1 percent reduction in the number of nurseries nationwide, decreasing from 39,171 in 2018 to 30,923 in 2022. Similarly, kindergartens witnessed a 5.1 percent decline, dropping from 9,021 to 8,562 over the same period.
The forecast primarily stems from the diminishing number of infants from newborn to five years old. The report indicates that this trend is expected to exacerbate further.
Statistics Korea estimates the country's fertility rate for 2023 to be 0.72 baby born per woman, based on the data from 2022. The agency anticipates an ongoing yearly decline in the infant population, with a notable projection that the number of children less than a year old is expected to drop below 200,000 by 2026.
Daycare center enrollment in Korea continues to slide, dropping from over 1.41 million in 2018 to 1.09 million in 2022.
Similarly, kindergarten enrollment declined from 675,998 in 2018 to 552,812 in 2022, marking an 18.2 percent decrease.
The report predicts a significant reduction in the number of daycare centers and kindergartens, from 39,053 in 2022 to 26,637 in 2028 — meaning approximately 31.8 percent of those institutions, or 12,416, are at risk of shutting down over the next four years.
The expected reduction is notably high in larger cities, with projections of a 39.4 percent drop in Busan, 37.3 percent in Seoul, 37.3 percent in Daegu and 34 percent in Incheon.
This forecast was based on the assumption that the enrollment rates of daycare centers and kindergartens in 2022 would remain constant, according to the report.
It voices concerns that a larger number of kindergartens and daycare centers will close in the future, especially in areas without many students, leading to inadequate child care infrastructure in non-urban areas and exacerbating their depopulation.
The report says support is needed to maintain a minimum level of infrastructure for child care, particularly in areas facing population outflows, such as rural regions.
The report suggests providing financial support for institutions at risk of closure and designating specific daycare centers and kindergartens in vulnerable areas as essential infrastructure to ensure their sustained operation.
The report also proposes measures to bolster infant care services in vulnerable areas, including repurposing vacant spaces like elementary schools, administrative welfare centers and village centers, and deploying child care professionals to these locations.
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