Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Russia is losing, its so over.
How could anyone believe this shit?
If Russia said that the enemy casualties were 3 times their own I would call BS.
Source: A single "OSINT analyst" on Twitter told me

No really
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Russia is losing, its so over.
How could anyone believe this shit?
If Russia said that the enemy casualties were 3 times their own I would call BS.
These kinds of OSINT loss tables are retarded to begin with.

(I’ve already seen some sources claim that Russia has lost more helicopters than they even had in their inventory.)

For example, a tank is very rarely a total loss. Even when counted as “destroyed”.

The ones who control the battlefield and the skies, in this case Russia simply haul the tank back and repair it. Or if it’s SEVERELY damaged, ship it back to the factory to be rebuilt. Same goes for artillery and to a certain extent other pieces of military hardware.
 
An interesting and really telling article from (of all people) David Axe.

One Of Ukraine’s Best Brigades Rolls Into Avdiivka. But Will The 3rd Assault Brigade Fight Smart?

"Fighting Smart" according to Axe in the article would be for the 3rd Assault Brigade to deploy into the chemical plant northwest of Avdiivka and abandon the city itself to the Russians.

The 3rd Brigade could begin its defense of Avdiivka by digging in inside the industrial coke plant in the city’s northwest corner and straightening out its defensive line from north to south. Yes, that would mean giving up the eastern half of the essentially lifeless city. On the other hand, it might restore secure supply lines.

Axe also admits all the supply problems in the city. That they are down to supplying the whole city along dirt tracks in fields.

Of course retreating to the chemical plant would in actuality be surrendering the entire city. There is no "western half" to hold like Axe is pretending there is. The chemical plant is a strong position. But if the rest of the city is surrendered, its unlikely to survive for long.
 
An interesting and really telling article from (of all people) David Axe.

One Of Ukraine’s Best Brigades Rolls Into Avdiivka. But Will The 3rd Assault Brigade Fight Smart?

"Fighting Smart" according to Axe in the article would be for the 3rd Assault Brigade to deploy into the chemical plant northwest of Avdiivka and abandon the city itself to the Russians.

The 3rd Brigade could begin its defense of Avdiivka by digging in inside the industrial coke plant in the city’s northwest corner and straightening out its defensive line from north to south. Yes, that would mean giving up the eastern half of the essentially lifeless city. On the other hand, it might restore secure supply lines.

Axe also admits all the supply problems in the city. That they are down to supplying the whole city along dirt tracks in fields.

Of course retreating to the chemical plant would in actuality be surrendering the entire city. There is no "western half" to hold like Axe is pretending there is. The chemical plant is a strong position. But if the rest of the city is surrendered, its unlikely to survive for long.
What a slimy fuck:

“The Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka, which for years was anchored by the army’s weary 110th Mechanized Brigade, already was starving for fresh troops and ammunition, mostly owing to far-right Republicans in the U.S. Congress—who appear to align with Russia—cutting off U.S. aid to Ukraine starting last fall.”

Looking after taxpayers billions=“alligning with Russia.”
 
I apologize for my map, of the Bakhumut direction. It was missing a lot of the movement in that direction. There was even more movement than I thought. Everything I said applies but even more so. Extra Chasiv Yar progress.jpg


It seems like there are small actions happening elsewhere. I thought the stuff I had was basically everything but it appears not. I will wait to post Battlefield reports until later from now on because it seems as if more is happening and it takes longer for the people whom I steal maps shamelessly from to make maps for everything
Is it strategically viable for the russians to just ground the AFU to dust in an attritional war? Since Bakmut, I have been wondering if these endless positional battles matter at all in the big picture.

Seems to me there'll be more and more Bakmuts and Avdiivkas until the Russians reach Kramatorsk and Slaviansk.
Yes but you are not entirely wrong that these fights for this or that particular city doesn't matter that much in the big picture. There are reasons outside of strategy to take a city. Part of the reason Russia wants to capture Avdeevka is that it is the city from which Ukraine has been shelling Donetsk Civilians. Taking it would stop the ability to do that with artillery. And certain cities do have strategic value such as Kramatorsk and Slavyansk as you mentioned because they have fortification that were built up over years before the war.

However that does not mean that offensive action into cities is worthless. Cities are an excellent place to trap a bunch of Ukrainian units as the center of a cauldron that you can either encircle or batter using artillery and air support. Also Russia cannot just keep the lines still and still manage to cause so many casualties. All war is about trying to force your opponent to be between a rock and a hard place and being so to die in a high rate. By attacking Russia puts pressure on the Ukrainian Army and there is a rock and hard place effect between the Russian fires and the infantry assaults.

In regards to the Russian Strategy anything besides causing attrition is hidden by the Russian general staff. They haven't shown their hand other than that they have done a long attritional war. It could very well be that the idea is to attrition Ukraine until a certain point at which Russia will try to engage in Maneuver warfare and destroy Ukraine. Ukraine is losing resources they need and eventually something will snap. However it could also be that Russia intends to just grind out Ukraine to the very end slowly taking territory over the course of several years to end. Russia has kept this strategic decision veiled so that the west can't easily decide what to do.

Good question.
I archived this because not everyone has twitter/it could be deleted. Please do so in the future. There have been twitter links in this thread that have gone dead because someone deleted it before I went to view it.
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I looked him up, and the guy seems to have some interesting borderline wacky theories, (such as “crypto colony”) and supposedly is the intellectual godfather of much of the Russian right?

Not sure how credible the latter claim is, as for the former, it makes perfect sense that the dissolution of the USSR caused a lot of people to reject all previous accepted wisdom.
Yeah I understand him somewhat. The general picture I have is that some of his theories are insane and basically just plain not true. I'd put his writings in relation to Christianity in this category. Some of his theories are definitely designed to try and preserve the pride of Russian Nationalists in regard to the Tsar and WW1. I don't hate him for doing that even if he is a little biased. But some of it is quite excellent in its ideas and there is a lot of truth to it. Like his idea of the Russian revolution starting in 1905 and Lenin and a lot of the Bolsheviks having a lot of British influence seems to have a lot of weight to it. Also if you think about color revolution this concept becomes a lot more reasonable. This is especially true if you start digging into things and discover weird connections that are never talked about in mainstream history. Also his idea in relation to the ruling class of the USSR basically all being these weird mixed-race people with no ethnic home and what that caused and why that came about mirrors a lot of events in the US.

I don't speak or read Russian though and there have been basically no translations of a lot of his major works or at least none that I can find. Also his post that contains his History of Everything ideas on his LiveJournal is not visible to me ,even in Russian, which strikes me as really fucking weird. RWA and some other guy translated a bit of him and did some commentary on him. I watched and read basically all of that. It has gotten to the point where I want to learn Russian just to read this guy because he is interesting to me. Part of the reason I am asking about him here is I want to know if that is somewhat worth it.
An interesting and really telling article from (of all people) David Axe.

One Of Ukraine’s Best Brigades Rolls Into Avdiivka. But Will The 3rd Assault Brigade Fight Smart?

"Fighting Smart" according to Axe in the article would be for the 3rd Assault Brigade to deploy into the chemical plant northwest of Avdiivka and abandon the city itself to the Russians.
I'm seeing a lot of the Pro-Ukraine people act differently. Some are going into full cope mode and denying everything. Some are admitting what is happening in full such as showing the correct map of control for Avdeevka. Some are doing what David Axe is doing and occupying a middle ground. But there is disunity. I blame the hiring of Srysky and the just in general bad situation.
Sirsky is calling for a retreat and saying Kiev aims to reclaim the 1991 borders in the same interview.
Looks as though Srysky has absolutely no independence what so ever and just schizophrenicly parrots what Zelensky wants.
 
some Russian innovations made during the war to lower losses on drone strikes.
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Jammer on tank
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ERA tile layout protection against top attack drones.
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Russia continues to impress.

They’re fielding equipment that didn’t even exist when the SMO began.

Yeah, it’s not like they designed a new tank from scratch or anything, but still: Considering that it takes half a decade or longer procurement typically takes in the Pentagon, it’s impressive.
 
Looks as though Srysky has absolutely no independence what so ever and just schizophrenicly parrots what Zelensky wants.
He has always been assumed to be a Zelensky yes-man as opposed to a more independent Zaluzhny who was popular with the troops. Some local analysts went as far as to claim that Ukraine has (well, had) two armies, one loyal to Syrsky and one loyal to Zaluzhny. As you can see, Zelensky finally rectified that problem.
 
An interesting and really telling article from (of all people) David Axe.

One Of Ukraine’s Best Brigades Rolls Into Avdiivka. But Will The 3rd Assault Brigade Fight Smart?

"Fighting Smart" according to Axe in the article would be for the 3rd Assault Brigade to deploy into the chemical plant northwest of Avdiivka and abandon the city itself to the Russians.

The 3rd Brigade could begin its defense of Avdiivka by digging in inside the industrial coke plant in the city’s northwest corner and straightening out its defensive line from north to south. Yes, that would mean giving up the eastern half of the essentially lifeless city. On the other hand, it might restore secure supply lines.

Axe also admits all the supply problems in the city. That they are down to supplying the whole city along dirt tracks in fields.

Of course retreating to the chemical plant would in actuality be surrendering the entire city. There is no "western half" to hold like Axe is pretending there is. The chemical plant is a strong position. But if the rest of the city is surrendered, its unlikely to survive for long.
What kind of moron proposes holing yourself up in a factory in the middle of a modern war, in a battle you are losing badly and nearly at a full retreat, as "fighting smart"? At least Azov did it out of necessity because they had literally nowhere to go after the road to Volnovakha got cut and the war was considerably less bleak-looking then. Maybe you get away with this type of stuff in a war at the scale of WW2, like in the Tractor Factory, but somehow I doubt there's 50,000 men coming to reinforce Adviivka and gain back some ground to relieve, reinforce and or replace the hypothetical defenders of the Coke factory any time soon.

And how does he expect the 3rd Assault Brigade to magically push back the Russians and "straighten the defensive line" (???). Who pays these retards to write about something they seemingly don't know anything about?
 
One has to wonder when this failed proxy war to weaken Russia will end? If you work for an armaments maker in the West you'll want to keep riding that gravy train for sure.
I wonder how that gravy train is going? I would presume that they would be experiencign extreme pressure to speed up production and that would cut into profits. I don't know anyone in the industry though.
 
First one looks like Aella.
Imagine: They have women getting turned into flesh paste while 'garch sons are on eternal deferment due to eternal "university studies" or abroad having coke-fueled orgies.
Looks like the russian gnomes had a mistaken identity moment when they called in an artillery strike on an aella lookalike then. I guess they had enough of trying to drag her off to a POW camp

Cuckoman said:
On a positive note though, these young women gave their lives so that young men in Kiev could live. Ukraine thanks you for your sacrifice.
Hopefully this doesn't lead to some bizarre male or troon ukrainian bride fad when the war ends. The world being what it is it wouldn't surprise me

HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS said:
Ukraine's Onlyfans brigade lmaaaaaaooo
I wonder how long it'll be before someone does a band of bimbos miniseries about their contribution to the war effort. I'm sure they'd be following a whole different easy company for that one
 
I wouldn’t call it tragic, it’s war.
War is tragic.
And note that Russia isn’t using cluster munitions against civilian targets, like the Ukrainian have done against civilians in Donetsk and other places.
That the enemy is worse doesn’t excuse your own actions. The strike was very successful and I’m sure truly important, but I’ll still feel bad about it. I regret every Ukrainian death except the nazis, volunteers, and mercenaries. And I doubt there were many of those villains present this time.
 
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