Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Betonhaus]

They are not fooling anyone. They will fly them non-stop without maintenance until they are all shot down.
Just like they can not maintain anything, not even in peace time.

I do look forward to see what happens though. This may be the first time a LONG time where we would have semi-modern aircrafts like the F-16 going against an enemy with modern air-defence systems.
I mean, we are no longer talking about F-16 vs a goatfucker with an ak-47, we are talking about an F-16 vs modern AD batteries.

I personally think that AD systems have evolved much more quickly than aircrafts and this will tell whether I am right or wrong.

If i had money to spare I'd put money on Russia bombing them the moment they land on a Ukrainian airstrip, making them useless.

 

[Fapcop]

F-16's were facing relatively contemporary AD systems as late as the mid-80's in Lebanon/Bekaa Valley and Desert Storm, possibly Kosovo, and came out ahead.

Of course again, the issue here is that 1) those were flown by actual competent pilots with months to years of training and experience, and 2) these aren't contemporary build F-16s, these are early to mid-80's builds that the Benelux countries were going to get rid of anyway as they bough F-35s.

There has been A LOT of developments since the 80ies, when the Israeli’s faced (at least) a decade old SAM.

And even then, it was because of Israelis strategy, tactics and pilot skills that they came out ahead.

Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see.

(Maintenance and where to base them, will especially be a problem. Along with training of course. One of Ukraines crack pilots died in a training accident in the summer, if that doesn’t speak volumes about their skills, I don’t know what does.)

I suspect that Russian SAMs combined with their modernized aircraft will make short work of them, in which case NATO brass will really start panicking.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

I suspect that Russian SAMs combined with their modernized aircraft will make short work of them, in which case NATO brass will really start panicking.

Nah that's what the US is hoping for to sell more F-35's to the remaining friendly military holdouts still operating F-16's.

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

F-16's were facing relatively contemporary AD systems as late as the mid-80's in Lebanon/Bekaa Valley and Desert Storm, possibly Kosovo, and came out ahead.

Of course again, the issue here is that 1) those were flown by actual competent pilots with months to years of training and experience, and 2) these aren't contemporary build F-16s, these are early to mid-80's builds that the Benelux countries were going to get rid of anyway as they bough F-35s.

They're F-16A MLUs, so upgraded early 1980s jets. OLD airframes.

Its not like they are useless but they will probably mainly be cruise missile buses like the ghetto su-24 refits they are flying currently

Cruise missile, HARM, AND GBU trucks with the occasional AIM-120 or AIM-9L shot against anything they get a lock onto..... which will most likely be suicide drones.

Afaik they won't be getting any ECM pods or targeting pods/LANTIRN systems so it'll be onboard radar, the INS, and coordinates preprogrammed into the bombs.

 

[geckogoy]

Cruise missile, HARM, AND GBU trucks with the occasional AIM-120 or AIM-9L shot against anything they get a lock onto

I think GBU is too much threat exposure, the ghetto SU-24s get to release weapons from like 100 mi behind their own lines

 

[Cuckoman]

F-16's were facing relatively contemporary AD systems as late as the mid-80's in Lebanon/Bekaa Valley and Desert Storm, possibly Kosovo, and came out ahead.

That is kind of my point. That was 40 years ago.
My theory is that over the last several decades, the capability of an aircraft has only had incremental improvements while the much simpler AD systems have had dramatic improvements. I want to see if the equation from 40 years ago still holds true today or not.

It will be interesting to see.

 

[blackjack101]

most of the conflicts F-16s have faced were like S-75s and S-125s and these are not considered long range air defenses like the S-200s I dont think Serbia or the middle east possessed S-200 systems which would have been interesting to see what would happen if they did.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wbl-i3HIcM

 

[Fapcop]

Damn! Shots fired!



Not a huge fan of this chick, but I like how she told off Cameron and his ridiculous “Bu.. But Muh HITLER! Muh Munich!” Nonsense.

 

[Seedling]

Damn! Shots fired!

View attachment 5723213

Not a huge fan of this chick, but I like how she told off Cameron and his ridiculous “Bu.. But Muh HITLER! Muh Munich!” Nonsense.

MTG was the politician that got swated by someone claiming to be from kiwifarms at the peak of the dropkiwifarms avalanche and she ate that up completely.
She's a certified retard but every now and then she's right like a broken clock

 

[Cold Root Beer]

MTG was the politician that got swated by someone claiming to be from kiwifarms at the peak of the dropkiwifarms avalanche and she ate that up completely.
She's a certified retard but every now and then she's right like a broken clock

OT: MTG is a retard, but she's hilarious to me. My favorite tweet of hers about Georgia Tech (home of the ~5th highest ranked computer science program in the world)

 

[Betonhaus]

MTG was the politician that got swated by someone claiming to be from kiwifarms at the peak of the dropkiwifarms avalanche and she ate that up completely.
She's a certified retard but every now and then she's right like a broken clock

... we're allowed to still not like her though, right?

 

[Seedling]

... we're allowed to still not like her though, right?

Of course, i don't like her because she's a retard.
It just happens that Boris Johnson is an even bigger retard, so at the end of the day this is just 2 retards flailing at each other.
But instead of being contained in the special ed class we let these people run western countries

 

[Fapcop]

MTG was the politician that got swated by someone claiming to be from kiwifarms at the peak of the dropkiwifarms avalanche and she ate that up completely.
She's a certified retard but every now and then she's right like a broken clock

I mean… Tbf I wouldn’t expect a female politician her age, to know her Kiwifarms from Pepperidge Farms.

Nevertheless, if someone of her mental prowess can see things for what they are, it really speaks volumes.

 

[Cuckoman]

... we're allowed to still not like her though, right?

Of course. That said she does have high entertainment value so she should keep doing what she is doing.

 

[Romeo]

Russia is building a lot more than three modern warships - USC has a half dozen Gorshkov's under construction in St. Petersburg, and the Amur shipyard (Russian Far East shipbuilder) was recently granted a license to build them as well. This is the future of Russia's "warship" backbone now that they've replaced the gas turbines originally supplied by Ukraine and the poorly built replacements from China. The Russian Navy also recently took delivery of a number of new Borei, Yasen and even the redesigned Lada class subs, so sub building hasn't really been effected by the war/sanctions.

Some agreeable; some debatable. There is no doubt Russia's naval civilian industry is pretty much booming, with the world needing Russia's icebreaker fleet (the largest in the world and have the world's only nuclear-powered icebreakers) and Russia bringing back floating nuclear power plants. Military-wise is more mixed. I pretty much agree that Russia's submarine fleet are pretty much as you said the best products Russia has to offer, as Sevmash and Rubin have proved to be reliable, and that Severnaya Verf and Yantar have made good modern Russian ships (even with that big fire that delayed completion of the corvette Provornyy by 5 years)

Kirov-class battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov, Get ME out of HERE!
​

However, Russia's ability to repair their Soviet ships is utterly atrocious. Sending a Russian ship for repairs and refits is like putting that ship into condemnation. Russia's meme of an aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov had two fires during its repairs and the carrier sunk its dry dock, of which a crane crashed into the ship. That ship is still in repair for seven years. Kuznetsov is infested with technical problems and for some reason uses heavy fuel oil instead of nuclear power, so the ship is basically a patient having lung cancer from smoking cigarettes. The intimidating Kirov-class battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov has been stuck in refit and repairs since 1999, and Russia apparently gave that responsibility to Sevmash, the submarine manufacturer. 500 IQ move. Putting Admiral Nakhimov back into service has been delayed numerous times: 2012, 2018, 2023, and now it's 2024. One might be afraid of what would happen if the Navy sent the only Kirov in service, Pyotr Velikiy, into repairs.

It doesn't help that Murmansk, the city where mostly ship repairs take place, is a dying city, with residents leaving the city left-and-right for more developed Russian cities.

On the aviation front, the Russian AF is still receiving new builds, including Su-57 (more were delivered in December), and fulfilling export orders (initial Su-34 &Be-200 exports to Algeria occurred last year).

Russia's air industry is more mixed to negative honestly. Mikoyan, the developer of the MiG-29, is gone now because they've been pretty much worthless to Russia since the Cold War was over. UAC merged Sukhoi and Mikoyan since they found owning two fighter jet manufacturers that don't compete with each other is redundant. However, they likely gave Sukhoi more influence and power in the merger since the MiG-35 (Mikoyan's only post-war jet) is such a mediocre plane compared to its Sukhoi counterparts. Sukhoi also keeps pumping new aircraft, even though the SU-57's entry into service was delayed multiple times.

Sukhoi Superjet 100, Rest in Peace​

And nothing makes me more sad than Russia's civilian air industry. After Tupolev pretty much were kicked to the curb from the civilian air industry, there was only contender left, and funnily enough, that is the fighter jet manufacturer Sukhoi. Sukhoi made the Superjet 100, of which it had achieved massive success, and there was a huge Mexican airline called Interjet that bought so much of the aircraft and loved it! What was going to be a spark to Russian's civilian air industry was quickly blown out. Sukhoi couldn't keep up manufacturing Superjet parts and the planes themselves, forcing Interjet to cannibalize other Superjets to maintain their fleet. It went so bad that Interjet almost went bankrupt due to increasing maintenance costs with the plane. They removed the Superjets from service and Sukhoi now barely produces the Superjet anymore. Only Russian airlines now use the plane after international airlines basically quit on the Superjet.

Sukhoi pretty much carries Russia's air industry on its back. Mikoyan is gone. Ilyushin just had the only prototype of their newest plane blow up (the Ilyushin Il-112). Irkut and Yakovlev merged to become UAC's civilian division and are struggling to develop Russia's newest airliner Irkut MC-21. Tupolev hasn't finalized their newest bomber or civilian aircraft. Only company other than Sukhoi that is doing okay-ish is Beriev. Russia's air industry would been a dumpster/hell fire if it wasn't for Sukhoi mass-producing and innovating jet fighters which are the only exportable planes Russia can offer to the world (India and Malaysia has specialized Su-30s), in addition to Beriev's specialized aircraft.

The fall of the Superjet still kills me.

 

[Fapcop]

Russia's air industry would been a dumpster/hell fire if it wasn't for Sukhoi mass-producing and innovating jet fighters which is the only exportable planes Russia can offer to the world, in addition to Beriev's specialized aircraft.

Still though… Russia is one of the very few countries in the world able to make turbojet engines. Even China hasn’t quite mastered it yet.

Boeing/Airbus are very hard to compete with, with their unofficial and official government subsidies.

If anything, the SMO might have given the Russian airline industry a possible boost.

Not just because they can’t rely on buying a bunch of off the shelf Western parts and calling it a day.

But also because of the business/political angle: The internal Russian market is huge, and given the sanctions there are A LOT of countries right now who are reconsidering relying solely on the EU and the US on their civilian (and military!) fleets.

 

[Duke Nukem]

OT: MTG is a retard, but she's hilarious to me. My favorite tweet of hers about Georgia Tech (home of the ~5th highest ranked computer science program in the world)
View attachment 5723264

She may be broke brained but I agree, fuck woke shit. It's just rebranding of Marxist garbage, and applying it to things that it was never meant for.

@Romeo Russia has rarely had decent naval capabilities but I believe that's at least in part due to its unusual geography and most of its ports are frozen anyway. Plus having little money available to make the required repairs on the vessels they have now.

 

[Betonhaus]

But also because of the business/political angle: The internal Russian market is huge, and given the sanctions there are A LOT of countries right now who are reconsidering relying solely on the EU and the US on their civilian (and military!) fleets.

Is there a chance that some major airlines would determine that Russian planes are more reliable then Boeing? That could be a good market

 

[geckogoy]

Is there a chance that some major airlines would determine that Russian planes are more reliable then Boeing? That could be a good market

Afaik just considered to be kindof mediocre.

That is in an of itself an achievement a grand total of like four countries ever achieved, minding, but yea I think the US/EU side would need to regress yet further to make that a reality moreso than anything

 

[Fapcop]

Is there a chance that some major airlines would determine that Russian planes are more reliable then Boeing? That could be a good market

Airline purchases are political in many cases as much as economical.

(As long as reliability is mostly on par with Boeing. And that shouldn’t be a problem, Russia has decades worth of experiences with big planes, the biggest issue is turbojets economical enough.)

Where there would be a possible market, would be with countries outside of the US/Europe. Countries in South America, India, China, MEA.

Especially Arab countries could be potential customers if they move a little further away from the US. Saudi Arabia is already trying to balance east and west, and at some point the US might try to force their hand and drive them over in the other camp.

Most of the world, outside of US’s immediate Allie’s saw what happened with the sanctions and became very worried that things like Airplane maintenance/parts might be used in the future to force them to follow diktats from Washington.

Afaik just considered to be kindof mediocre.

That is in an of itself an achievement a grand total of like four countries ever achieved, minding, but yea I think the US/EU side would need to regress yet further to make that a reality moreso than anything

As I said, airline purchases are as much decided by politics as they are by economy.

If a Russian plane is a few cents more expensive per seat in fuel, but it guarantees political independence (or cheap spare parts) that would be as much an incentive as having the best of the best.

Airplanes and jet engines are a very mature technology. The differences in new models vs. decade old models is a few percent.