Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

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The picture makes it look like he's doing the disabled war vet routine now to beg for money.
 
Those new Russian uniforms are super snazzy.

Why can’t American uniforms be this classy?

Like in comparison they look like a grumpy local fire marshal.

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I’m seeing reports that the super duper elite Azovite 3rd assault brigade basically refused orders.

Instead of going into the cauldron and either reinforcing the garrison or blocking the Russian advance so they could retreat in an orderly fashion, they took one look at the battle, and went “oh fuck no!”
 
“Guys, we MUST keep up the sanctions against Russia, because the sanctions are what enables them to pay their soldiers!”

Nancy Pelosi at the Munich security conference.

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Ukrainian FM Kuleba’s facial expression is priceless.

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“Dear lord… my allies are retards!”
Third Commandment of KiwiFarms: Archive Everything.




But that aside, quite the clip. First she reveals that Russia pays its soldiers. Then she goes further and says that it pays "mercenaries". Have you, um, looked at the number of Western soldiers who have temporarily taken off their national uniforms and gone to fight for Ukraine? You know they're still mercenaries even if Ukraine reneges on paying them afterwards or they get their pay stolen by their commander, right?

I'm less concerned with the verbal slip of saying they have to keep up sanctions because that helps Russia pay its soldiers than that she might believe what she meant to say (that they're stopping Russia from doing so) is actually true.

The failure of sanctions is one of the biggest and most underestimated defeats for the USA here. If there emerges a rival financial system to the dollar, then the USA's $33trn debt suddenly looks a lot more scary to America when people have another option.
 
So Russia is openly advertising they are going after Odessa in ads and songs? A serious declaration of what they will require or just a stretch goal?

At this point everything east of the river seems likely but Odessa is well past that.

Also it seems to me Russia isnt moving slow due to Ukraine but because they are effectively treating nato forces as reserve units and dont want to over extend if nato decides to do something stupid. Also if they do anything sudden nato might react suddenly but a boil the frog strategy keeps things escalating further than they already have.
 
Azov this and Azov that. We wuz Cossacks and Vikings and shit. Every time I read about these special brigades they are hiding in some industrial basement.
azov are basically the retards who pretend to be the effective Waffen SS divisions but when it comes time to walk the walk they are revealed to be the shitty ones made up of albanians/bosniaks and the Dirlewanger division.
 
Also it seems to me Russia isnt moving slow due to Ukraine but because they are effectively treating nato forces as reserve units and dont want to over extend if nato decides to do something stupid. Also if they do anything sudden nato might react suddenly but a boil the frog strategy keeps things escalating further than they already have.
Ultimately that's the best strategy. There's nothing to gain from committing to a shock and awe tactic that leaves them incredibly vulnerable if Nato sees weaknesses they can exploit. Instead if Russia ensures that their logistics and fronts are perfectly defended to the point that they can bunker down at a moment's notice, then there's nothing Nato can do as anything they send would just get destroyed. It's an interesting tactic that's basically advertising that Russia knows that it'll win the war and that it's in no rush to do so. It demonstrates a big dismissing of the sanctions and the Ukraine army as things that Russia considers ineffective.
 
I found some good information on Russian deaths so I'd thought I'd analyze them. This project doesn't do estimates and relies on hard data.


https://archive.ph/Q9lOn
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng (Link has interactable inforgraphics)
Russian casualties in Ukraine. -Mediazona count,
43,460
Russian casualties corroborated by publicly available data as of 2 February


Mediazona, in collaboration with BBC News Russian service and a team of volunteers, continues gathering information on the Russian military casualties in Ukraine. The figures we provide are sourced from publicly available information, including social media posts from family members, local media coverage, and official statements from local authorities. However, these figures represent only a partial account and do not reflect the full extent of the casualties.


End quote

This also doesn't include the DPR and LPR forces. Assuming a bit of error because not every obituary can be caught and accounting for the DPR and LPR deaths the real figure seems to be somewhere around 80k dead. This is in agreement with mine and many pro-Russia people's intuition.

This is the geographical map of where the deaths come from. Interesting how many come from the far east. My understanding of those Regions is that they are very Pro-Russia and receive special treatment in the form of local autonomy, outsized influence in Russian government and economic investment. This relationship with minority populations of Military service in return for local autonomy and special treatment is an interesting and seems to be mutually beneficial.
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Interesting to see the breakdown of deaths reported. The biggest is N/A with 11,423, then Prisoners with 8,099, then mobilized with 5,216, then volunteers with 5,037 and the last one that is interesting to me PMC with 2,784. If we believe the 2* of reported to actual this would suggest that around 15k-20 prisoners died in this war. Also it is interesting that so many are mobilized. I do know of the mobilized being used heavily for defense at a rough point in the war so I guess it is not that surprising. Also interesting is 10% of these deaths are officers, that is a sizable portion. The officers are definitely not hiding behind their men and letting them get killed while they take no risks.
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The final interesting thing from this article is the distribution across time. The peak seems to be around Bakhumut. Other local peaks seem to be around the start of the war the months surrounding Bakhmut and the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Look at how little deaths there have been recently, there has been a spike starting in October 2023 and then a constant decrease. I don't think Ukrainian Deaths have gone down in this period however. This seems to suggest that Russia has gotten really good at attacking without too many troops dying.
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That brings me to the topic of Ukrainian deaths. Sadly there is not as good of a source on Ukrainian deaths as this one. Ukraine takes great care to hide how many have died and messes with obituaries. But from Russian deaths we can get a sort of estimation of Ukrainian deaths.

The floor seems to be a ratio of 5:1 UKR to RUS. This may seem a bit high but consider how little artillery Ukraine has and the only real advantage they have had or used to have is massed infantry assaults. That would give deaths of about 400k.

The middle ground in terms of ratio is 7:1 or 560k dead. It is not as a conservative an estimate as 400k. But it would also not surprise me if around this many UKR troops died.

The high number would be something like 9/10 to 1. That would be 720k-800k dead or so. I find this estimate to be hard to believe. I have heard people say it and it is possible but probably very unlikely.


I go with the 400k just to be conservative but this is a pretty good triangular distribution and such a distribution usually gives decent results for guessing. This also aligns with mine and other peoples intuition.




Moscow lifts Ecuador banana ban -RT​

Russia has lifted its partial ban on imports of bananas from Ecuador, the Russian food safety watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor announced on Friday.

The whole story around this was that Ecuador was going to send old soviet weapons to Ukraine and receive some money from the US congress in return as part of the massive aid bill. Well the massive aid bill failed and so Ecuador gave up ever sending its weapons to Ukraine.
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Ultra based, where is that from?
If you are referring to the Navalny quote, it is from his Live Journal. Live Journal was/is a popular blogging platform in Russia. I can't tell what you were referring to be attachments break upon quote.
So Russia is openly advertising they are going after Odessa in ads and songs? A serious declaration of what they will require or just a stretch goal?

At this point everything east of the river seems likely but Odessa is well past that.
Yeah basically. The thing is Russia is unable to let this war end until they have recaptured everything they want to recapture. Odessa and the black sea coast are on that list. Russia cannot and does not want to ever do this war again so they are going to finish it by making Ukraine a militarily unviable country. The end result of this war assuming no NATO intervention is Ukraine becoming a rump state.

Did the Ukrainians really decide to leave the Citadel and the Coke plant? I thought they were going to stay put there and delay the Russian advance as much as they can.
They did on both counts basically. Some of them left but some of them stayed. Particularly azov stayed behind to delay the Russian advance as much as possible. They did delay the Russians for as long as possible. It just wasn't a very long amount of time.
Did the 5,000 Ukie troops in the pocket break out, or what?
This situation is a disorganized chaotic mess. When a situation likes this happens command breaks down and everyone makes their own personal decisions. Some people ran the gauntlet and managed to make it, a lot didn't. Some were trapped in the city and killed, some were trapped in the city and taken prisoner. Because Ukraine ordered a retreat so late everything collapsed as opposed to retreating in good order.

You can't even say how many Ukrainians were trapped inside, 5k is just an estimate. I don't think more than half of the people that ran for it made it. But I could easily be wrong. It is a giant mess and putting good numbers on things is impossible.
 
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