Garm
kiwifarms.net
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This is not the future envisioned by Terminator.
Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion
- Thread starter Catherine the Great
- Start date
- Joined
- Apr 28, 2021
Withholding their salary? I don't think that would do much since they make most of their fortunes through kickbacks and corruption.
The only way I can see democracy working is if the elected people stake their life on doing well for their nation, just like a king or a dictator. If they failed to serve the people like they promised they would, the people should have the legal right to drag him to the ceremonial politician guillotine.
MrJokerRager
kiwifarms.net
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- Joined
- Feb 4, 2023
Invasion Update - 17 February 2024 - Day 724 of the Invasion
Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast
Russian troops captured the Donetsk Filtration Station
Former Wagnerians and troops of the Tuva-based 55th Mountain Motor Rifle Brigade planting the flag of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the flag of the Tuva Republic on the monument in Railwayman's Park.
And unfortunately, some Ukrainian troops didn't make either of those two.
It's been a pleasure reporting to the thread of the beginning and end of the Russia's offensive operation in the Battle of Avdiivka. I've delayed the update on the rest of the frontline to focus on Avdiivka for now due to the big news that came out.
Crediting most of what I have to SuriyakMaps (Telegram), which has been consistently neutral and reliable, and has been my main source for posting updates in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, especially as it pertains to the Battle of Bakhmut. Other mapper I recommend is the pro-Ukrainian mapper DeepStateUA, of which it is constantly reliable and truthful despite the pro-Ukrainian lingo, and even reports more Russian gains than Suriyak and other Russian mappers like Rybar (Telegram).
Previous update: https://kiwifarms.net/threads/russian-special-military-operation-in-the-ukraine.150029/post-17567987
Reliable Reporters I use:
Donetsk Front - Russia fully captures Avdiivka and the Avdiivka Coke Plant
Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast
Summary
After 135 days of fighting (above 1/3 of a year) when the Russian Offensive first started (6 October 2023), on 17 February 2024, Ukraine evacuated the last batch of forces from Avdiivka (Russian transliteration: Avdeevka) after Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army Oleksandr Syrsky's official announcement, leading to the Russian capture of Avdiivka and the Avdiivka Coke Plant.| Suriyak (neutral) | DeepStateUA (pro-Ukraine) - maps Coke Plant as captured |
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Recap
- Avdiivka (Russian transliteration: Avdeevka) is a large fortress town set up by the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2014. The Russian capture of Avdiivka is needed to stop shelling of the Russian-held provincial capital of Donetsk in the south that has been going for nine years, and would cement the loyalty of Donetsk citizens towards Russian rule, which is an objective of the Russian forces in the war.
- As of 13 February 2024, Avdiivka is now 35% under Russian control as Russian forces captured the only supply route to and from Avdiivka, Industrial Avenue. With many city blocks of Avdiivka captured by the Russian forces and many Ukrainian positionsencircled, the Commander-and-Chief Valery Zaluzhnyi pushed for evacuation of the Ukrainian garrison from Avdiivka, which led to him being sacked by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
- Zaluzhnyi's replacement, Oleksandr Syrsky, is still committed to evacuating the Avdiivka garrison. Syrsky sent the 3rd Assault Brigade Azov and reserves to most likely help evacuate the Ukrainian garrison as its remaining route to evacuate consists of a few dirt roads west of the stronghold, which is muddy and under Russian direct artillery fire.
- As Ukrainian garrison retreats towards the supply route to wait for evacuation, Russia clears more and more parts of Avdiivka. The fall of Avdiivka to Russia is inevitable.
Locations
Settlements
- North of Avdiivka: Kamyanka, Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka Landfill Hill
- West of Avdiivka: Sjeverne, Tonenke
- Northwest of Avdiivka: Lastochkyne
- South of Avdiivka: Zenit Missile Base (labelled in red), Donetsk
- East of Avdiivka: Donetsk Filtration Station (labelled in teal), Kruta Balka, Kashtanove
Routes and Landmarks
- Avdiivka's borders are labelled in orange and white stripe.
- There is only one main supply route that Ukraine uses to supply or evacuate the city: Industrial Avenue (labelled as a thick lime green line), which its portion around the Industrial Sector, or Private Sector was captured by Russian forces (in orange) on 13 February 2024.
- With this route cut, Avdiivka is isolated from Ukraine. The remaining Ukrainian garrison will be forced to use the Dirt Roads (labelled in a thin yellow lines) to Sjeverne or Lastochkyne, which is under Russian fire control. In addition, the winter weather has made these roads muddy, so it will be difficult to use vehicles on this road.
- The northwest of Industrial Avenue and Avdiivka as a whole is guarded by Ukrainian stronghold Avdiivka Coke Plant (labelled in light blue), of which its difficulty may be compared to the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol.
- Northeast of Industrial Avenue is the Industrial Sector, or Private Sector, of Avdiivka, labelled in lime green, and most parts captured by the Russians.
- Going down Industrial Avenue will lead you to the intersection with the Dirt Road towards Sjeverne and Lastochkyne. East of the intersection is the Avdiivka's main Railway Station and the Railwaymen's Park, which represent the more central parts of Avdiivka.
- South of the intersection is Khimki District (labelled in hot/troon pink), a Ukrainian fortress of commie-blocks that guards the south and southwest of Avdiivka, and is used as the evacuation point for the Avdiivka garrison.
14-16 February 2024 - Ukrainian garrison routs to Khimki to leave Avdiivka, with the Russians behind them
Raising the Flag
- In northern Avdiivka, the Russian Army made advances toward the Avdivka Coke Plant from the Avdiivka Landfill Hill and Industrial Avenue (ii), and interestingly enough, Lastochkyne from Industrial Avenue. (1, 2)
- Russia is most likely extending their fire control over the dirt roads to and from Avdiivka as well as discourageUkrainian forces to evacuate towards Lastochkyne.
- Russian forces are 600 meters from the dirt roads and 3 km from connecting with Russian forces in the southwest. (1, 2)
- From the advancements toward the Avdiivka Coke Plant, Russian forces captured the stele at the western entrance to Avdiivka, where Zelensky had recently taken the photo of himself outside Avdiivka (i).
- Ukrainian forces soon started evacuating from the outskirts towards Avdiivka following Russian advances to encircle them, leaving behind the fortified positions of Zenit missile defense base, the Cheburashka Cloverleaf Interchange, and the trench network around Lisna and Kolosova streets in the south, Verba dacha area and Avdiivka Quarry Landfill in the northeast, and the Donetsk Filtration Stationin the east. (1, 2, 3)
- By 15 February, Russia captured Zenit (iii), Cheburashka and the dachas north of it (iv), the Lisna-Kolosova trench network, and Donetsk Filtration Center and the surrounding forests east of the H20 Road. (1, 2, 3)
| i) Russian troops of the Donetsk-based 114th Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces putting up their hammer-and-sickle standard on the stele at the western entrance to Avdiivka, where Zelensky had recently taken a photo of himself outside Avdiivka. This is following Russian advances towards Lastochkyne and the Coke Plant from Industrial Avenue. | ii) Footage of Russian troops of most likely the Donetsk-based 114th Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces entering the first buildings of the Avdiivka Coke Plant complex from their advances from Industrial Avenue following Ukrainian withdrawal. |
| iii) Russian troops captured the Zenit Missile Defense Base following Ukrainian withdrawal towards Avdiivka. Reports indicated that Ukrainian troops left their wounded in Zenit, leading them to be captured by Russian forces. | iv) Russian troops captured the Cheburashka Cloverleaf Interchange south of Avdiivka, one of the main fortified Ukrainian positions, following Ukrainian withdrawal. |
Russian troops captured the Donetsk Filtration Station
- On 16 February, former Wagnerians and the Tuva Republic-based (a Mongolian ethnic group) 55th Mountain Motor Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces soon stormed central Avdiivka in 16 February from Industrial Avenue and the Industrial Sector, capturing the first parts of the Avdiivka Train Station, St. Nicholas Church, and the clinic and the adjacent Railwaymen's Park, where Russian troops raised the flags in the monument of the center of the park. (4)
Former Wagnerians and troops of the Tuva-based 55th Mountain Motor Rifle Brigade planting the flag of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the flag of the Tuva Republic on the monument in Railwayman's Park.
The Rout from Avdiivka
- Ukrainian forces in all of Avdiivka quickly retreated towards the Khimki District and escaped from Avdiivka in a panicked rout to Sjeverne and Lastochkyne via the dirt roads.
- These dirt roads are heavily monitored by Russian drones and artillery. Ukrainian soldiers nevertheless ran to Sjeverne and Lastochkyne in groups in desperation. However, Russian drones picked them off one by one, increasing the amount of Ukrainian troops that did not make it to the Ukrainian-controlled villages. (see NSFW footage below)
- As Ukrainian forces leave their positions from Avdiivka, Russian forces quickly captured every street and every city block. More of Avdiivka falls to Russia.
- Ukrainian reinforcements such as the reserves and the 3rd Assault Brigade Azov are now in hiding inside the Avdiivka Coke Plant, possibly suffering many casualties with the Russian forces in their attempts to delay the Russians from capturing Avdiivka to give the garrison more time to evacuate. The Russians soon stormed the Coke Plant. (4)
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| Ukrainian armored vehicles leaving Avdiivka. One of them is on fire, indicating that a Russian drone or shell must have recently struck it. | To escape Avdiivka, Ukrainian troops leave in small groups through the dirt roads monitored and shelled by Russian forces. |
| 14 February | 15 January | 15 January |
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| 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 January | ||
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| 4 |
17 February 2024 - Ukraine evacuates the last batch, Russia fully captures Avdiivka and the Avdiivka Coke Plant
- As reported previously in the thread, Commander-and-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky officially announced the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka probably during the time the last groups of Ukrainian troops are escaping the fallen stronghold.
- Following the official announcement of Ukraine's withdrawal of Avdiivka, the Russian Army entered in the remaining areas of the fortress town relatively easy and raised the flag in several strategic areas, such as the Avdiivka Railway Station (i), Avdiivka Quarry (ii), Khimik District, and the Avdiivka Coke Plant (iii).
| i) Railway Station | ii) Plant south of the Avdiivka Quarry | iii) Avdiivka Coke Plant |
- Suriyak and pro-Ukrainian mapper DeepStateUA reports that the entire Avdiivka Coke Plant stronghold has fallen to Russia, resulting in Russia capturing all of Avdiivka, after 135 days since Russia's offensive, and 727 days since the start of fighting towards Avdiivka between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the Invasion. The Battle of Avdiivka is now over with a Russian victory. (1, 2)
- To increase the buffer zone around Avdiivka, Russian forces soon advanced towardsLastochkyne, where Ukrainian troops are now routing from the settlement towards the Berdychi-Orlivka-Umanske-Netailove Defensive Line, west of the village. (2)
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| 1) Civilian parts of Avdiivka now under Russian control | 2) Russian troops seize the Avdiivka Coke Plant and enter Lastochkyne |
Conclusion
- The fall of Ukraine's strongest fortress in the whole Invasion Avdiivka is a massive blow to Ukraine, with not only morale among Ukrainian forces and the populace becoming low, but the West being less likely to send weapons and money to Ukraine in aid as Ukraine being on the losing side being more apparent with the loss of Avdiivka. This comes amongst souring relations between the two as Ukraine's government is blaming more of their losses with the lack of aid given by the West and the United States of America, and Ukraine's growing realization of their belief that the West is betraying them. This battle may be the war's climax.
- For residents of the pro-Russian city of Donetsk, Russia's capture of Avdiivka is a God-send for them, for they would not have to see shelling by Ukrainian artillery on their city for the first time since 2014. With no more shelling that has been ongoing for a decade, the citizens of the Donetsk People's Republic are now solidly loyal to the Russian state, as they felt that the Russians have answered for their every need with the capture of Avdiivka, and now will willingly fight with Russia till the end of the war.
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Donetsk-based Russian troops writing graffiti on the walls of the Donetsk Filtration Station: “You've turned off our water. And you've give us Avdeevka!” - already posted in the thread here
- The Ukrainian evacuation was nothing short of an organized retreat, but actually a disorganized rout. Not all Ukrainian soldiers managed to escape Avdiivka, and ended up as prisoners of war in Russian hands.
| Captured Ukrainian soldiers of the 110th mechanized brigade captured in Avdeevka. - Russian milblogger Remylind23 | Prisoner from Avdeevka: I didn't know where to go. Junior Sergeant Dmitry Dyachuk from Rivne was sent to replace the NP on Soborna Street, but his entire squad was killed. There was no connection, no thoughts. He hid in the hut and began to wait. “If he waits, he will survive,” Barmaley the cat who submitted the video assured me. - Russian milblogger Remylind23 | Interrogation of a Ukrainian serviceman, senior lieutenant Garnag Alexander Vyacheslavovich, commander of the second rifle company of the first rifle battalion of the 3rd separate assault brigade. He was captured after the railway station in Avdeevka was surrounded. - Russian milblogger Remylind23 |
And unfortunately, some Ukrainian troops didn't make either of those two.
Final analysis by SuriyakMaps
SuriyakMaps said:
What now?
- Take my predictions with a grain of salt but Russian forces are most likely will continue advancing northwest and westwards of Avdiivka towardsLastochkyne, Sjeverne, Tonenke, and other Ukrainian villages to expand the buffer around Donetsk and Avdiivka. Some reporters and media believe that Russia has targeted Selydove, a large town a little under the size of Avdiivka, of which it is northwest of Donetsk City via the E50 road. Others indicated that Russia has re-focused on the Zaporizhzhia front. However, Russia has continued offensive operations everywhere in the frontline, from Kharkiv Oblast to Luhansk Oblast/Luhansk People's Republic, so Russia will maybe continue to assault towardsKupyansk, Terny, Bilohorivka, etc. as it has intended before.
- We may see a lot of political drama going on in Ukraine's government. With the fall of Avdiivka, confidence in Zelensky's governance and Srysky's competence has decreased and we may see powerful people in that government attempting to take advantage of the fallout.
It's been a pleasure reporting to the thread of the beginning and end of the Russia's offensive operation in the Battle of Avdiivka. I've delayed the update on the rest of the frontline to focus on Avdiivka for now due to the big news that came out.
Crediting most of what I have to SuriyakMaps (Telegram), which has been consistently neutral and reliable, and has been my main source for posting updates in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, especially as it pertains to the Battle of Bakhmut. Other mapper I recommend is the pro-Ukrainian mapper DeepStateUA, of which it is constantly reliable and truthful despite the pro-Ukrainian lingo, and even reports more Russian gains than Suriyak and other Russian mappers like Rybar (Telegram).
Previous update: https://kiwifarms.net/threads/russian-special-military-operation-in-the-ukraine.150029/post-17567987
Reliable Reporters I use:
- History Legends - Despite having a soyjak face in the thumbnails, his reports are neutral and reports both on Russian and Ukrainian successes and losses.
- Recent video on Avdiivka: (Coming soon)
- Willy OAM - Willy is a Pro-Ukraine/Pro-NATO reporter who is probably the first to be disillusioned that Avdiivka's fall to Russia is inevitable a week ago, and pro-Russians seem to sorta like him more despite the pro-Ukrainian lingo as he is more truthful in his reports.
- Recent video on Avdiivka: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUtBfP4-TqQ
Edits
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- Joined
- Apr 28, 2021
Ofc, getting encircled in never good and was never part of the plan, hence why the no-retreat orders where issued in order to prevent encirclements. You want authorized retreats in order to prevent encirclement and NO unauthorized retreats that would cause encirclements.
Did this always work in practice? Ofc not. But what else could they have done? Just constantly retreat whenever they where under pressure? That's no way to fight!
There was retreats towards defensible positions, but perhaps not as much as there should have been. But it's easy to understand why he didn't pull back as fast on the southern front as he should have, he knew he needed that oil to win the war so he didn't want to retreat even further away from the only thing that could save him. Pulling back behind the Deniper is good if you want to defend, but getting back across it to push down to Caucasus is really hard unless you maintain hard to defend bridgeheads on the right bank of the river. You're essentially telling him to play for a slower loss instead of an unlikely win.
This is is just retconning of history, there where many authorized tactical retreats after Stalingrad, most of the rest of the war for the Germans was just a bunch of holding on as long as possible and then retreating. Sometimes their retreating was done too late and units where encircled but that's just what happens when you walk the tight rope of holding on as long as possible.
What? Extend the war another week? The war was lost in 1942, if you are real charitable you could say they had some sliver of a chance in 43, but only if they could somehow capture a major oilfield.
So would basically every other German general's strategy have ended as well. Have you looked in to how his Generals thought?!? They knew nothing of strategy, only tactics. They where great at winning battle after battle and they basically destroyed most of Russia's standing army from the start of the war, yet they lost, because they weren't focused on the strategic side at all, Hitler was.
I think Germany's best chance of wining in operation Barbarossa would have been to completely ignore the Generals that wanted to push towards Moscow, like if Russia would capitulate like France after Paris was going to fall. Hitler should have devoted 100% of his focus on grabbing the rich region of Ukraine and then going straight for the oil in the Caucasus. Only then could he let his little generals play their tactical games of maneuver warfare because only then do they have the fuel to do so
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- Joined
- May 29, 2021
I was really surprised that they lost the chemical (coke) plant. That place itself was a fortress and should not have been in any immediate danger. For weeks it was talked about as the fallback line from the city center. But now its been lost too.
That 3rd Azov Brigade seems as if its a total loser formation now.
That 3rd Azov Brigade seems as if its a total loser formation now.
- Joined
- Sep 15, 2016
Meh… In all fairness, a lot of the “Muh Hitler bad general!” Stuff was made up by Wehrmacht generals post WWII and repeated ever since because it’s a good story.
I’ve heard it argued that the stand fast order in 41/42 saved the German over extended lines, and prevented a stalemate from turning into a rout.
Likewise in Stalingrad, the decision to not let the 6th army retreat saved German forces throughout army group south. The 6th army in the Stalingrad kessel held something like over a million Soviet troops in place.
Hitler deserves credit for listening to Manstein and his famous one-two punch through the Ardennes against France.
The German battle plan before Hitler decided that this was the way to go, was basically a repeat of WW1 and would never have won that campaign.
As for Moscow as a target in Barbarossa, it wasn’t just because of political reasons.
Moscow was important because it was the central hub of all transportation and railways. Capture Moscow and it doesn’t matter how many divisions you have in Siberia. You’ll never get them to the front.
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Givi
kiwifarms.net
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- Apr 10, 2022
Azov is Azov in name only. It was watered down by the start of the war but by now all the hardcore fanatics (which are generally good for a fight, if not to have around during peace time) are dead, wounded or captured. It's just another brigade that's probably 90% people who are only there because they were up to be drafted and the ranks needed filling and don't have any fun political ideologies.
There isn't a single particularly good brigade or battalion left in the UAF, most likely. The counter-offensive made sure of that.
FAT_KHAZAR_MILKERS
kiwifarms.net
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- Jul 25, 2020
Oh shit, they've teched up to Dachshunds.
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2023
I want to ask. Is there potentially any sort of connection between Zelensky sacking his previous general (for the stated reason that he planned to evacuate Adviika) and replacing several military heads in positions of tacticians and logistics management, and Adviika falling just a few days later?
WonderWino
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2019
a better option would be to make campaign promises legally binding and jail politicians who ignore them after being elected
Yeah, there are plenty of vids like this, like full on tg channels. Shit's scary.
God of Nothing
kiwifarms.net
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- Aug 31, 2016
Was that second one really necessary? I know he was still moving and it's debatably a mercy but damn.
Just Some Other Guy
kiwifarms.net
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- Mar 25, 2018
I love the cope of "Guys, this just shows Ukraine actually cares about it's men by retreating!"
Like, are these niggers for real? Holy hell.
Like, are these niggers for real? Holy hell.
- Joined
- Feb 10, 2024
I mean allowing them to retreat is the best treatment Ukraine has given its soldiers yet, so its progress
- Joined
- Nov 6, 2014
He propably smelt the booze from that far away and thought that even by slav standards she must be hammered.
I can't see any politician voluntarily doing that. You would have to appoint them by lottery. Democracy is midwittery for midwits by midwits. Politicians are usually cowardly demagouges.
- Joined
- Jan 21, 2021
Since others posted peculiar drone kills..
Something I've watched recently(NSFW and all that):
Not the worst way to go, tbh.
Something I've watched recently(NSFW and all that):
Not the worst way to go, tbh.
Democracy requires informed and involved people who actually care for more than their next sack of potato the current politicians offer for their vote.
Most countries do not sport independent media that would inform people, and most countries' active voter base are uninformed mouthbreathers with room temperature IQ voting for the most demagogue idiot.
Highly doubt it. These things do not develop (usually) overnight. This collapse was brewing for at least a month now.
Yeah, implying you have an impartial justice system, objectively measurable promises and truthful and objective reporting of metrics.
I'd rather take an AI overlord, like the ruskie bitch suggested. I'd just argue for a different (less sociopathic) base model.
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- Dec 7, 2018
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