Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Skeletonized Cow said:
>Numbers that look right.

So you made it the fuck up, OK, good to know.
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That is what Visual Heuristics mean. I thought it was pretty obvious.

Male Idiot said:
If KGB can do heart punch, why do they need novichok? One punch comrade.
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OIG3.jpeg
 
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Betonhaus said:
According to visual heuristics if two of the 50 missiles are duds then that would mean at minimum 23% of the missiles are duds. The seven year gap doubles the minimum number of duds to 46%. Since they didn't perform a second test immediately after the first failed, they deliberately chose to conserve their remaining missiles instead of confirming they work. It's possible that they had assumed they figured out why it failed and fixed it, but had failed to test for other issues. If the failure is the same, the number of duds double again to a minimum of 92% of the missiles being duds.
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Overly Serious said:
But what really blows me away is that if the last test launch was in 2016 and that was a failure this means that for seven years, the British navy have been in the situation of not managing to repeat a failed test. A little maths - I don't know how many missiles we have but I see references with a quick search of having planned to purchase 65. Let us say the the proud kingdom of bongland has 50 such missiles.
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I don't want to derail to bad here. But its not a pool of 50.
The UK stock = the USA stock. Its the same pool. They may have chipped in for 65 but they are both drawing from the same stockpile.
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link to UK Trident FOIA
The US test in 2019 I believe happened because the UK fired a dud in 2016 and everyone freaked out. I am sure the one they fired in 2019 wasn't "randomly" selected and shipped. I am sure they picked the best of the bunch and went over it with a fine tooth comb months in advanced because they couldn't risk having another one fail in front of everyone.
 
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Male Idiot said:
If KGB can do heart punch, why do they need novichok? One punch comrade.
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It had to have been Steven Seagal. Putin must have personally asked him to go to the prison and do it. Seagal has previously demonstrated this ability on Russian TV.




America's CIA needs to send in Kumite Champion Frank Dux, George "Death Touch" Dillman and American Ninja Ashida Kim to take down Seagal once and for all. This cannot be allowed to stand.
 
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On a side note, Krinky has been taken back by the Russians.

The Russians reported 1,820 Ukrainian casualties there (probably greatly exaggerated and more likely to be in the high hundreds) Still though, that operation was pointless and the ones who planned it are pretty much braindead.

AFU dickriders will cope by saying that Russia was unable to retake the town in many months but the reality is that the town was converted into a firebag in which many AFU supplying missions perished while trying to cross the river and the garrison in the town pretty much spent all of their time locked in a basement with little to no possibility to push out of the bridgehead.
 
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Drag-on Knight 91873 said:
Niggers and Spics and WASPs are very different from each other even a hundred years ago when they weren't DIE faggots.
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We basically didn't have spics here 100 years ago, and the few that were here were all in the Southwest. Even Texas was over 90% 80% white in 1924. Nearly all of the spics now here came after 1964.
 
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Saleh said:
The Russians reported 1,820 Ukrainian casualties there (probably greatly exaggerated and more likely to be in the high hundreds) Still though, that operation was pointless and the ones who planned it are pretty much braindead.
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It may not be much of an exaggeration. They had three marine brigades feeding single companies into that position one after the other with next to no way out for the men sent in. There were additionally heavy casualties on the river crossings themselves. They supposedly had to bring in over the river even the water for the men during the operation.

Then when it became Winter, it became just a horror show. Between the temps and having to operate on low ground, the weather was probably causing as many casualties as the Russians.

The Russians were not terribly interested in getting them out because they were in a small killbox taking fire from three sides not able to expand the position or even to concentrate more forces at the position due to supply problems.

It was a shameful, murderous and completely senseless operation. Not only should it never have been launched. When it was not meeting its objectives the men should have been withdrawn from it back in November. Though not on a the same scale, I think of it as the Gallipoli of the Ukraine conflict.

1820 casualties is around an average of 15 casualties a day during the operation. Though one has to be careful about trusting anything in a conflict like this, the number doesn't seem unreasonable IMO.
 
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Noto Bok said:
All this talk of Trident reminds me of 'Yes Prime Minister'.
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I treat "Yes Minister" and "Yes Prime Minister" as realistic explanations how modern western governments work. I suspect really life is probably a bit more dry and a bit more dangerous but I think the main ideas of the show are basically right. They did base the show off of real stories.

Saleh said:
On a side note, Krinky has been taken back by the Russians.

The Russians reported 1,820 Ukrainian casualties there (probably greatly exaggerated and more likely to be in the high hundreds) Still though, that operation was pointless and the ones who planned it are pretty much braindead.

AFU dickriders will cope by saying that Russia was unable to retake the town in many months but the reality is that the town was converted into a firebag in which many AFU supplying missions perished while trying to cross the river and the garrison in the town pretty much spent all of their time locked in a basement with little to no possibility to push out of the bridgehead.
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I like the story of Krinky. It is a microcosm of the way Ukraine makes decisions that exemplifies the entire war. Even the bit where they pretend it was useful includes how they pretend all of their failed attacks are useful.

Betonhaus said:
According to visual heuristics if two of the 50 missiles are duds then that would mean at minimum 23% of the missiles are duds. The seven year gap doubles the minimum number of duds to 46%. Since they didn't perform a second test immediately after the first failed, they deliberately chose to conserve their remaining missiles instead of confirming they work. It's possible that they had assumed they figured out why it failed and fixed it, but had failed to test for other issues. If the failure is the same, the number of duds double again to a minimum of 92% of the missiles being duds.
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If you want to fake statistics you need to do something like p-value hacking. Don't try and fake probability either as it is easy to mathematically verify by just doing the math.
 
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Napoleon III said:
If you want to fake statistics you need to do something like p-value hacking. Don't try and fake probability either as it is easy to mathematically verify by just doing the math
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I was trying to make it obvious that the numbers were very fuzzy tho. I don't know p-value hacking enough to make a lie clear
 
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The Ugly One said:
We basically didn't have spics here 100 years ago. Even Texas was over 90% white. Nearly all of them came after 1964.
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They were here, they simply Americanized, especially in the Southwest; a lot Americanized their surnames. It's hilarious because their grandchildren and great-grandchildren are changing them back to take advantage of diversity, equity and inclusion bullshit. What did happen is hispanic immigration accelerated after 1964 and they weren't encouraged to assimilate into American society. Thanks Democrats, I guess.
Napoleon III said:
Even the bit where they pretend it was useful includes how they pretend all of their failed attacks are useful.
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All those videos of the killer kayaks and boats getting droned. What a waste of life.
 
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Feline Supremacist said:
They were here, they simply Americanized, especially in the Southwest; a lot Americanized their surnames.
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There were only about 60,000 total Mexicans living in the Mexican Cession in 1848. To put that in perspective, there were about twice as many people living in Rhode Island in 1848 than the entire Mexican cession. Since the USA had a population of over 20,000,000, that would make the new additions to the USA a grand total of 0.3% of the population.

So no, there wasn't a significant Hispanic population in 1924. There were blacks, and there were whites. Spics weren't on anybody's mind, because there just weren't a lot around. Nearly every Hispanic currently in the USA is descended from post-'64 migrants or the '42-'64 "guest workers" who never went home.
 
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this whole thing is going to end as soon as the US stops funding it without US support the Russians will eventually break through of course how long that takes will depend on how much milsurp the ukies still have once the gravy train stops. If Trump Wins next year it will end soon if he doesn't later but regardless of when it will end. Of course other countries will attempt to pick up the slack but It's not going to make a dame bit of difference.
 
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Tumbo II said:
this whole thing is going to end as soon as the US stops funding it without US support the Russians will eventually break through of course how long that takes will depend on how much milsurp the ukies still have once the gravy train stops. If Trump Wins next year it will end soon if he doesn't later but regardless of when it will end. Of course other countries will attempt to pick up the slack but It's not going to make a dame bit of difference.
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This is cope - even if the US/EU cease funding Ukraine, Estonia will continue singlehandedly funding the Ukrainian war machine and supplying them with F-16s on paper, also Russia is out of soldiers, munitions and money
 
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