Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Falcos_Commisar]

Ukrainian and Russian Private Military Contractors have been active in Africa for many years.

A tiny group of Ukrainian mercenaries offered their services to the rotten pretend government of Sudan in its war with an equally rotten Sudanese militia (RSF).

Russians (Wagner) are based next door to Sudan in the Central African Republic. Certain Russian individuals associated with Wagner had their own private gold mining interests in Sudan. The Russians would move the gold out of Sudan over the Central African Republic border. Profits would be split with the RSF.

The Ukrainians did some videos of mercenary attacks on the RSF in Sudan and maybe some russians doing business with the RSF. Wagner and Russia are not overly involved in the civil war in Sudan. If their mercenaries get killed doing private business on their own time, nobody is going to care much.

Nobody knows if the fighters in Sudan are really Ukrainian Special Forces or if they just Ukrainian mercenaries in Africa who got paid to fly the flag during their operations.

Amusingly the Ukrainian SOF in Sudan have been next to useless as the RSF has been on a winning streak over the last few months.

They're about to completely take Kharkhoum and the Sudanese Armed Forces and the old government have retreated to Port Sudan and are in danger of losing the war.

Fun fact, Russia and the UAE and Haftar in Libya back the RSF and Egypt and sorta Ukraine back the Sudanese Army.

Back to Ukraine, the Ukrainians are estimated to run out of most medium and long range SAMs on less than 5 weeks.

Less if Russian starts spraying drones and cruise missiles at them.

 

[Rubick]

Who agrees to assassinate someone for $4,000? I would demand 100 times that a minimum.

I have a acquaintance who's partner is a prosecutor. A 18 year old guy was caught attempting to set a power transformer building at the railroad on fire. Which since the war is pretty ordinary stuff that happens with some regularity.

Anyway my acquaintance partner who like i said is a prosecutor had a seat on preliminary investigation and it was also the usual stuff - the 18 year old's place of living a flat where he lived with his parents, got visited.

And that produced electronic devices, which were seized and of course a lot of stupid shit was found on them including messaging history between him and unknown partie who not only tasked him to set fire on a transformer, but also sent him a set of instructions on how to make an IED (Apparent the instructions were moronic and would in all likelihood result in him blowing himself up).

Now here is the thing. The agreed fee for a arson was an equivalent of 40 dollars.


Unfortunately for the kid. The FSB counter-intelligence came and got involved. Their idea also was to use the guy. But unfortunately they also raided the guys place of living for the second time.

Which tipped of the local press. So the kid is useless and any chance for a light sentence reduced. And he's looking for maybe 10 to 15 years of prison time for a equivalent of 40 fucking dollars.

 

[Candlelight Desolation]

If Ukraine won’t surrender the French will do it for them?

I agree with the idea that some of the recent talks may have been ideas openly talked about to "look strong", but going back to my Napoleon example from a page ago, you also have to think about Hitler's failures in Russia. The only European countries in modern history which had some success against Russia were Finland under Mannerheim and Poland under Pilsudski. Russia has been able to wear down Ukraine and get the upper hand going on three years despite all of this money and materiel being funneled in from NATO. Many of these countries are having their munitions and ammo supplies run dry thanks to this; Europe had decades to prepare for this instead of relying on Big Daddy America swooping in and saving the day if Russia started acting funny. Now the chickens have come home to roost.

If NATO is really going to send troops into Ukraine along with most likely drafting healthy and mentally well young males in their countries, then not only does this reek of fear and desperation, then it also reeks of idiocy and lack of knowledge of history. I doubt Russia will attack any NATO country unless they are directly attacked first, but at the same time I don't think NATO realizes the full extent and implications of this, and this is keeping the idea of nukes and horrendous loss of life in conventional warfare in mind. NATO, by sending all this stuff to Ukraine, has been hucking rocks at an angry bear without realizing it can get out of its pen. NATO is absolutely playing with fire, and they're going to get hurt because they have NO idea the full ramifications of what they're dealing with here.

 

[Seedling]

Will they really send troops to die in Ukraine?

View attachment 5759778

Charlemagne division 2.0 Electric bogaloo?

NATO mutts can bark all they want, we all know the pentagon holds the leash

 

[BradCarter]

I, for one, would pay money to see Europe puppet govs send their unwilling military, whose equipment by and large is either burning in the mud or somehow made it into the middle east after falling off a truck. I'm sure they'd be in Moscow by autumn.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

If NATO is really going to send troops into Ukraine along with most likely drafting healthy and mentally well young males in their countries, then not only does this reek of fear and desperation, then it also reeks of idiocy and lack of knowledge of history. I doubt Russia will attack any NATO country unless they are directly attacked first, but at the same time I don't think NATO realizes the full extent and implications of this, and this is keeping the idea of nukes and horrendous loss of life in conventional warfare in mind. NATO, by sending all this stuff to Ukraine, has been hucking rocks at an angry bear without realizing it can get out of its pen. NATO is absolutely playing with fire, and they're going to get hurt because they have NO idea the full ramifications of what they're dealing with here.

It would be political suicide, and potentially national suicide, for any of the European powers to get manpower directly into the Ukraine war. Russia has weapons short of nukes to bring to bear, and the civilian population is not at all accustomed to hardships under war conditions. Considering the shoddy states of their military, industry, and energy sectors, they will have to more or less go immediate full war economy and drafts to get anywhere close to being able to both help with a war, and defend the homefront they just opened up. Russia's deep strike capability short of nuclear weapons is likely mediocre at best, but Europe is highly dependent on a few LNG ports and terminals for energy now, and a limited pipeline infrastructure that they're not well equipped to repair if fucked. Energy rationing just to build reserves for military and industrial use alone would cripple millions of redditors on the continent, NAFO would never recover.

None of the European powers have the political, industrial and economic will to commit to boots on the ground and actually deliver on that commitment. This is just talk, the only way they back it up is if the US leads the charge, and that's not a line I think the US will cross.

 

[Uncle Holter]

The only European countries in modern history which had some success against Russia were Finland under Mannerheim and Poland under Pilsudski.

I agree that Finland stalling for a bit is "some success", but aren't you forgetting something?
You know, some nation that wiped out most of the Russian army and occupied most of western USSR around the same time period?
That for example carried out the largest encirclement in history in the battle of Kiev that resulted in 700,000 casualties of which most where POVs? I would think that's at least "some success".

 

[Butterschmalz]

 

[Napoleon III]

Battlefield report

This is west of Avdeevka.
There are reports Ukrainians are retreating from Orlivka. Granted this is just a rumor but it may be true and would actually be good decision making on their part. For those that don't know there is a river a little bit to the west of Avdeevka that the Ukrainians could end up being trapped in front of if they are not careful. But as for the Usual Russia is moving quickly here.


There were small movements around the Chasov Yar area. Russia is slowly taking Ivanovskoye and the surrounding forests.


Small amounts of movements around Donetsk.


Honestly not that much going on today. West of Avdeevka is turning into something big but that has more to do with Ukraine being retarded than Russia pushing especially hard. I kind of wonder if Russia is moving stuff around or is pausing for a day or two for some reason. There was some more very minor stuff like very small assaults in the north that produced no real result that happened today but not a lot.

ol a lot of that comes from just good "salesmanship." US brass honestly thinks that the Abrams tank has not only been the best tank in history, there will never be a tank better than it, so naturally gullible buyers also believe this. In reality it's basically a technological dead end tank. They don't want to take what worked with the tank and incorporate it into a new design because that would mean replacing the tank. Upgrading the tank has been the option they've been going for but it's just a cold reality that there's only so much you can do with such an old tank. Instead of realizing this though they're now claiming that the newest bling package which is the "M1E3 Abrams" is going to make the tank viable in modern combat even past 2040.

I would say that a lot of the older US weapon systems that have been refitted have worked much better than the new designs.

The Abrams despite what some people think, not a terrible tank. It doesn't have an autoloader and it has a quite high fuel consumption but otherwise it is fine as a modern MBT. I would place it below a Challenger but above a Leopard 2. I don't know how I would compare it to a Russian tank as they tend to keep some of the aspects of their tanks especially the T-90 a bit more secret at least to me. The Ukrainians and the DoD treated it as it was something rare and special and unique, but it is just a tank. Though if you are Ukraine I guess any modern MBT is special and unique because you don't have very many of them.

 

[Jalal-Ibn-Jalal]

Another slow day after the Avdiivka capture high. Russia will likely capture Tonenke and Kladovyshche in the last days of February or early March. The boys will likely capture Orlivka in early March 2024 before the fake election, unless if the Ukrainians fight over a ruined village.

 

[borsabil]

I agree with the idea that some of the recent talks may have been ideas openly talked about to "look strong", but going back to my Napoleon example from a page ago, you also have to think about Hitler's failures in Russia. The only European countries in modern history which had some success against Russia were Finland under Mannerheim and Poland under Pilsudski. Russia has been able to wear down Ukraine and get the upper hand going on three years despite all of this money and materiel being funneled in from NATO. Many of these countries are having their munitions and ammo supplies run dry thanks to this; Europe had decades to prepare for this instead of relying on Big Daddy America swooping in and saving the day if Russia started acting funny. Now the chickens have come home to roost.

If NATO is really going to send troops into Ukraine along with most likely drafting healthy and mentally well young males in their countries, then not only does this reek of fear and desperation, then it also reeks of idiocy and lack of knowledge of history. I doubt Russia will attack any NATO country unless they are directly attacked first, but at the same time I don't think NATO realizes the full extent and implications of this, and this is keeping the idea of nukes and horrendous loss of life in conventional warfare in mind. NATO, by sending all this stuff to Ukraine, has been hucking rocks at an angry bear without realizing it can get out of its pen. NATO is absolutely playing with fire, and they're going to get hurt because they have NO idea the full ramifications of what they're dealing with here.

The only way NATO will get directly involved is after a total collapse of the Ukrainian state. Something along the lines of sending in troops to Lvov and establishing a no flyzone in the west in support of what in effect would be a government in exile. As Russia has made clear that they don't want anything to do with Galicia this may be considered a low risk strategy. It's saving the furniture, mainly for the optics. The west stepping in to salvage a rump Ukraine knowing all the time that they're only able to do this because Russia is letting them. The downside is having to permanently fund and run a Slavic Zimbabwe full of Nazis.

What's really interesting is that Macron is talking about this now, which suggests things are way worse than even posters on this thread imagine. I'm starting to get fall of Saigon vibes. Everyone's been assuming that the Ukraine had another year or even two before the collapse, maybe not.

 

[Halfnium Bomb]

What else can compel a man to put his life in danger and still be so happy and unperturbed? Is it ideology? Religion? What's keeping these troops going? I'm perplexed and I've spent two years in the army and I feel nothing there can prepare you for an actual conflict since you know you're not in danger.

Read Storm of Steel.

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

The Abrams despite what some people think, not a terrible tank. It doesn't have an autoloader and it has a quite high fuel consumption but otherwise it is fine as a modern MBT. I would place it below a Challenger but above a Leopard 2. I don't know how I would compare it to a Russian tank as they tend to keep some of the aspects of their tanks especially the T-90 a bit more secret at least to me. The Ukrainians and the DoD treated it as it was something rare and special and unique, but it is just a tank. Though if you are Ukraine I guess any modern MBT is special and unique because you don't have very many of them.

The Abrams keeps essentially every single shell away from the crew unlike the Leopard 2 and Challenger 1 and 2. The PKK basically vaporized a Turkish Leopard 2 in Syria a few years ago due to this.

Challenger 2 doesn't have a CITV.

The fuel consumption is bad at idle, when driving around it's within a few % points of a Leopard 2. Even that's been mostly resolved with an APU in newer SEP models.

Autoloaders on Western tanks were extremely rare until the Leclerc and now the Japanese and S. Koreans use them as will the K2PL for Poland.

The West just didn't see the need for a 3 man tank crew.

As for Russian tanks, the vast majority are really just upgraded late 1980s models, see the T-80BVM and T-72B3. Good enough for most tank tasks. Nothing revolutionary.

The T-90M is the first one in decades that's really appreciably different and that's because of its turret which has a CITV and remote machine gun in addition to probably the heaviest and most modern armor array on a Russian tank in general service. One tanked (lol) dozens or even hundreds of 25mm canon shells on video and a FPV drone to the turret side and didn't explode.

 

[Homo neanderthalensis]

What else can compel a man to put his life in danger and still be so happy and unperturbed? Is it ideology? Religion? What's keeping these troops going? I'm perplexed and I've spent two years in the army and I feel nothing there can prepare you for an actual conflict since you know you're not in danger.

For me it's mostly reddit upvotes. I am a general on reddit.com/r/geopolitics and a weapons expert on /r/combatfootage.It's true that the life of a soldier is hard and the life of a cybersoldier like myself is sometimes even harder, but it is a rewarding career.

 

[World Famous Quasi Payer]

Honestly not that much going on today. West of Avdeevka is turning into something big but that has more to do with Ukraine being retarded than Russia pushing especially hard. I kind of wonder if Russia is moving stuff around or is pausing for a day or two for some reason. There was some more very minor stuff like very small assaults in the north that produced no real result that happened today but not a lot.

The Russians are being cautious. The pressing we have been seeing from them has been testing to see if the ukies are about to collapse or not. The loss of Avdeevka has been a major blow for the Ukrainians. If it was a rout, as people have been saying it is, than the Russians must have thought "This is it, the Ukies are finally breaking for good, this will be over in a couple months." The Ukrainians it appears, however, haven't broken. So the Russian high command is telling everyone to slow down and not over extend themselves.

Edit: changed spelling and grammar.

 

[Strix454]

Honestly not that much going on today. West of Avdeevka is turning into something big but that has more to do with Ukraine being retarded than Russia pushing especially hard. I kind of wonder if Russia is moving stuff around or is pausing for a day or two for some reason.

A big part of this war is controlling the space around where the fighting is occurring. Anti-air, anti-drone, artillery and a whole lot of other systems have to be place for operations to be successful. If troops get ahead of that umbrella of protection, they are really exposed in the current style of warfare and very bad things can happen. The slow methodical advance bringing everything forward at the same time is necessary.
And even if the advance seems slow, its still moving very fast for the Ukrainian side to deal with.

 

[blackjack101]

I guess it's still a good idea teaching your mobile air defenses (their strongest air defense is A-235) to practice hitting SLBMs even if some of them misfire from a British submarine.

https://iz.ru/1656115/aleksei-mikhailov-roman-kretcul/ognem-prometeia-sistema-s-500-sdala-ekzamen-po-borbe-s-giperzvukom

The S-500 anti-aircraft missile system has proven its ability to hit hypersonic targets. This happened during the tests, Izvestia's sources in the military department said. We are talking about both promising strategic hypersonic aircraft (analogues of the Russian Avangard) and simpler missiles. The tests were carried out in several stages. Prometheus confirmed that it is capable of tracking and intercepting such targets, the publication's interlocutors said.

Earlier, the military department reported that the crew of the nuclear missile submarine Tula of the Northern Fleet carried out missile firing from the Laptev Sea at the Chizha test site. The ship practiced striking one or more ground targets. Thus, he ensured the successful conduct of a military-technical experiment to test the S-500 Prometheus anti-aircraft missile system, the Ministry of Defense reported. Izvestia sent a request to the department.

might be a stupid question but is the steering wheel on the head of the tornado-S meant to control the missile midflight if a target changed its direction in which do other missiles have such a feature?
https://twitter.com/simpatico771/status/1762182764143559131

Edit: I have this notion of overestimating an adversary's technology like poland getting 250 m1a2 sepv3s and I have the assumption that these tanks Trophy systems would work against ATGMs, RPGs, and maybe drones (drones might have a lower radar signal) so I thought mach 3+ Hermes MLRS was the only way for being too fast for a tanks hardkill APS to intercept(and it attacks from the top) but the Tornado showcasing 5 shells in each parachute from 1 rocket they use infrared sensors to scan the surface for armored vehicles and hit them from the top at 2km/s speeds which cured my autism that Russia's has made a solution for that.

 

[Tamerlane]

If a Krassenstein says it's fake, it is 100% real.



So does its Soviet/Russian counterpart, the BMP-3 BMP-1. Note the stations marked at 25, 32 and 40. Hollywood likes to make fun of things it doesn't remotely understand. Turns out that when a vehicle's got a few men in it with nothing else to do, giving them a way to help defend the vehicle from infantry assault if necessary is fairly useful.

View attachment 5759926

Or when in an nbc environment

Those Bradley firing ports and cut down M-16s were deleted really fast as they were damn near useless and just took up space.

Enjoy the Bradley tours

And

Yeah, the point was to let soldiers use their weapons in nbc environments but they needed a different special rifle for this scenario making them pointless.

 

[Kane Lives]

The Russians are being cautious. The pressing we have been seeing from them has been testing to see if the ukies are about to collapse or not. The loss of Avdeevka has been a major blow for the Ukrainians. If it was a rout, as people have been saying it is, than the Russians must have thought "This is it, the Ukies are finally breaking for good, this will be over in a couple months." The Ukrainians it appears, however, haven't broken. So the Russian high command is telling everyone to slow down and not over extend themselves.

Edit: changed spelling and grammar.

At least they're not repeating the mistake in Vuhledar or whatever the fuck they were doing there. Losing an armoured column like that is infinitely worse than moving slow.

 

[geckogoy]

After the first couple weeks there wasn't a ton of point in moving fast anyways. If there is a big breakthrough obviously move fast to exploit it but afaik that hasn't yet gotten particularly close to happening.