Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Sister Miriam Godwinson said:
According to Dmitry "Nuke Everyone" Medvedev:


The adorable former president is being very :optimistic:. In March 2023 he said Russia will produce 1500 tanks in a year, but in June corrected himself to 600. The problem is that we are not talking about producing equipment from scratch; the overwhelming majority of these tanks are simply vehicles put into service from storage bases, even without any deep modification. T-62s were seen near Avdeevka, and recently Rabotino was stormed by T-55 tanks.

And each division is going to need armored personnel carriers, artillery units, AA units, engineering vehicles, etc, etc. And this is where the most difficulties and doubts abound as to whether the plans will be executed on time, as well as the quality of the divisions formed. The T-55/T-62 tank battalion and the T-72B3/T-90M tank battalion are two very different tank battalions in terms of their combat capabilities.
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Just to clarify, is this a sign that Russia may actually be losing a battle of attrition, or just that their ability to push forward is slowing down?
 
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Betonhaus said:
Just to clarify, is this a sign that Russia may actually be losing a battle of attrition, or just that their ability to push forward is slowing down?
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Largely it is the sign Russia doesn't need to draft more men for the upcoming summer offensive. Nobody talks about this, but Putin managed to quietly pull off the largest military reform since Peter the Great and change from the conscription-based model to the volunteers-fighting-for-pay, professional soldier model. At least, when it comes to the actual combat operations and not manning a garrison somewhere on the Mongolian border in he middle of nowhere.

Right now Russia is gearing up for the major summer offensive before the window of opportunity (no money from the US, depleted ammo stockpiles, Zelensky's presidential term running out) closes. The question is, how many mobile infantry groups it will have at its disposal at that point.

Of course, I have been wrong before and I am as civilian as one can possibly get, so you might want to find an actual army person to explain the minutae, but this is what my friends in the army are telling me.

Except the one who got drafted in the first (and only) draft wave and ended up in the trenches with no perspective to come back until the peace treaty is signed. He got the shitty end of the stck and I want him back, alive and whole. I am including an icon pendant with Archangel Michael in the next care package.
 
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Strix454 said:
That is another terrible area of Wikipedia. Wikipedia for example treats US and Vietnamese statements about the losses of the US as equally valid.

Therefore during operation linebacker in 1972, Wikipedia reports that the US lost either 134 aircraft (US Number) or.... 651 aircraft and 80 naval ships (North Vietnam's numbers). Facts don't matter. Its who says it that matters.
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I can understand North Vietnam wanting to inflate numbers, but considering they were face ships like Newport News, I think their numbers might be a tad off. Those Mk16 8"/55 were damned sexy. We used to be a serious country with serious guns.
 
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Sister Miriam Godwinson said:
Zelensky's presidential term running out
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That's one of the things about the framing of this war that really makes me laugh. We're still doing this whole "Ukraine is fighting for democracy" thing but Zelensky is essentially an unelected dictator at this point who banned elections because war. The usual defense is that the war comes first, which is sorta true but it really undercuts the cause that it's looking like there won't be a next President at all.
 
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Gondolindrim said:
That's one of the things about the framing of this war that really makes me laugh. We're still doing this whole "Ukraine is fighting for democracy" thing but Zelensky is essentially an unelected dictator at this point who banned elections because war. The usual defense is that the war comes first, which is sorta true but it really undercuts the cause that it's looking like there won't be a next President at all.
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There probably won't be an Ukraine at all, except maybe a small stub that will get absorbed by Poland
 
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If I was a ukie supporter I would ask these questions.
1. Why has Ukraine bombed the areas that want to defect.
2. Why does ukie army regiments support nazi symbols?
3. Why if Ukraine is winning do they keep losing cities against a nation not even mobilized for war?
 
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BAD NEWS EVERYONE!

Kamikaze khokhol are coming!
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Surely that’ll ensure victory for the piss yellow/blue?!
 
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TheSockiestSock said:
If I was a ukie supporter I would ask these questions.
1. Why has Ukraine bombed the areas that want to defect.
2. Why does ukie army regiments support nazi symbols?
3. Why if Ukraine is winning do they keep losing cities against a nation not even mobilized for war?
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If you were a ukie supporter the cognitive dissonance would be so strong that these questions never come to you in the first place.
 
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Fapcop said:
BAD NEWS EVERYONE!

Kamikaze khokhol are coming!
View attachment 5828014
Surely that’ll ensure victory for the piss yellow/blue?!
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I don't think people with no arms can tie grenades to themselves, let alone those with no legs jumping in to trenches.

Unless delivering ordinance via spastic is the new wunderwaffen? Hurling dead bodies ala medieval sieges and catapults could be the next one.

He died for Ukraine? Use his body as mortar ammo.
 
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Well despite claims from Ukrainan side that their northern offensive will not stop after elections in Russia are over . It looks like ROA 2.0 already run out of steam. And Belgorod offensive is over. But interesting thing is Ukrainians are now forcefully removing civilian population from area around northern border and are trying to fortify area. And at same time we have Putin saying he wants to prevent another stunt like this from happening by creating buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia.
So it is starting to look likely that Russia will try to reopen Northern front.

Sources:
 
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Betonhaus said:
Just to clarify, is this a sign that Russia may actually be losing a battle of attrition, or just that their ability to push forward is slowing down?
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It doesn't really solidly indicate either in any meaningful terms. One of the eternal challenges of industrialized attritional warfare is manufacturing - It takes machines to make tanks, APCs, etc. It also takes machinery to process iron and steel and chemicals to make the required raw materials for the previously mentioned manufacturing. It also takes machines and raw materials to produce the equipment that can perform the resource extraction. And it takes a long time to both get any new supply up to speed, but also get the people involved up to speed. All of these factors are competing with each other - If you focus on producing immediate war equipment, your ability to grow the war equipment industry slows down significantly as it consumes the machinery (Shit breaks) and raw materials. You might push your production from 400 to 600, but your production growth might go from 100 to 10. This gets messier as resource and manpower constraints come in as well - Even if you gave the tank factory the materials and machinery needed to expand production, can you find enough trained engineers, or train them in a meaningful time period?

Without knowing more about their general economic and industrial state, its hard to tell if Russia was just being wildly boastful about early production, was being overly optimistic about unrealistic targets, or if they're struggling to shore up one or more aspects of production to where they want to get it to. In my opinion, the shut down of the Armata program last year for good tells me they're having issues with supply of machine tools - Sanctions have really crippled this, so if I were Russia and expecting a permanently hostile western world going forward, I'd be spending what I got to try and expand what machining capacity I do have, and allocate the rest to programs that are already known working quantities.

Its also my personal opinion that they're not losing the battle of attrition in the slightest, the shell situation indicates as much. Their supply and capability to operate seems to be expanding.
 
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Kuritan Deplorable said:
Its also my personal opinion that they're not losing the battle of attrition in the slightest, the shell situation indicates as much. Their supply and capability to operate seems to be expanding
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I appreciate that on this thread I get a clear and instructional answer for my honest question instead of insults and denials.
 
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Got Milk! said:
View attachment 5828306

Idk if that quote sounds legit. Kinda makes this seem like a fake. Anyone know anything about this?
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The Mig31 doesn’t have that kind of range.
Kuritan Deplorable said:
In my opinion, the shut down of the Armata program last year for good tells me they're having issues with supply of machine tools
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Doubt.

The Armata program closed for different reasons, namely the price compared to what you get.

Was it a great tank? Sure. Especially if the engine problem got solved. But compared to the price of an Armata you can get several T80 or T90. (Many if you include the old models they have in storage and refurbish them.)

It’s the old question of which is better: A few top notch weapons, or many weapons that are “just” great or good enough.

What happened with the exact numbers? It could be many things: Everything from counting a brand new tank vs counting a modernized, refurbished tank.

It could be a question of revising production downwards because of manpower issues or because that many aren’t needed. It’s hard to say without more information.

As for machine tools in general, sure that it something where Russia has a problem. In the very long term.

Machine tools last for a very long time, and we can assume Russia bought enough for their needs pre sanctions. Spare parts and the occasional new tool is something that can be imported through third countries. (And sure: Paying a premium.)
 
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Speaking of Pentagon, it just complained to the Reuters (who was then copied by US' official State Media) that after they began whining to Niger about Russia, that Nigger kicked all of US troops out of the country
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Reuters confirms that US has run out of money to give to Ukraine, and Pentagon is going around Europe begging for cash. Zelensky also kindly revealed the date of a New Russian Offensive
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Useful_Mistake said:
Speaking of Pentagon, it just complained to the Reuters (who was then copied by US' official State Media) that after they began whining to Niger about Russia, that Nigger kicked all of US troops out of the country
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Reuters confirms that US has run out of money to give to Ukraine, and Pentagon is going around Europe begging for cash. Zelensky also kindly revealed the date of a New Russian Offensive
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Maybe the DOD should try not to lose one trillion dollars in their budget next time, eh?
 
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